Tornado watch
- See Severe weather terminology (United States) for a comprehensive article on related weather terms.
A tornado watch (SAME code: TOA) is issued when weather conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms called a Supercell that are capable of producing tornadoes.[1] A tornado watch therefore implies that it is also a severe thunderstorm watch. A tornado watch must not be confused with a tornado warning. In most cases, the potential exists for large hail and/or damaging winds in addition to tornadoes.
A watch does not mean that the severe weather is actually occurring, only that atmospheric conditions have created a significant risk for it. If severe weather actually does occur, a tornado warning or severe thunderstorm warning would then be issued. Note that a watch is not required for a warning to be issued; tornado warnings are occasionally issued when a tornado watch is not active (i.e. when a severe thunderstorm watch is active, or when no watches are in effect), if a severe thunderstorm develops and has a confirmed tornado or strong rotation.
In the United States, the Storm Prediction Center (a national guidance center of the National Weather Service) issues watches for areas likely to produce tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. The watch boxes (or weather watches, WWs) are usually issued in the format of x miles north and south, or east and west, or either side of a line from y miles direction of city, state, to z miles another direction of another city, state. For example: "50 miles either side of a line from 10 miles northeast of Columbia, South Carolina to 15 miles south-southwest of Montgomery, Alabama" ("Either side" means perpendicular to the center line). In addition, a list of all counties included in its area of responsibility is now issued by each NWS forecast office for each watch.
In the event that a tornado watch is likely to lead to a major tornado outbreak along with possible destructive winds and hail, enhanced wording with the words Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) can be added to the watch; this is occasionally issued. Occasionally, a tornado watch may replace a severe thunderstorm watch (or a portion of one) should conditions that were originally forecast to be conducive for non-tornadic severe thunderstorms change to allow possible tornado formation.
In Canada, the criteria used to issue a tornado watch are the same and watches are issued by regional offices of the Meteorological Service of Canada of Environment Canada in Vancouver, Edmonton, Toronto, Montreal and Halifax, on a county or regional basis.
The term "red box" refers to the assigned coloring used for watch box outlines used in Storm Prediction Center and National Weather Service products; television stations typically assign other colors (colors used may vary, but very seldom if ever red, which is usually used for tornado warnings) to highlight tornado watches in severe weather advisory displays.
Watch Outline Updates and Status Messages
Watch Outline Updates are relayed (and at the initial watch issuance, issued) by the Storm Prediction Center, however it is the local National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices that decide what counties (in their warning area) are included or excluded in the watch, via a conference call with the SPC. As a result, watch products will sometimes display counties inside the watch outline that are not included in the counties listed, and vice versa; however the local Weather Forecast Office will need to expand to add these counties into the watch. A Watch Status Message works in a similar fashion; the SPC designates which areas it thinks where a threat still exists (the most common designation for this is on the basis of the location of surface features such as cold fronts and drylines that would delineate where the threat of severe thunderstorms has ended and where it will remain a possibility), and the NWS offices decide what counties to remove from the watch (the local offices will almost always follow the SPC recommendation on the status messages).[2]
If conditions are no longer favorable for tornadoes in the watch area (either because atmospheric conditions that earlier supported tornadic development have become less conducive for them or were not present compared to predictions in earlier forecasts to form tornadoes), the tornado watch may either be replaced by a severe thunderstorm watch or cancelled outright; if no thunderstorm activity occurs, this leads to a tornado watch "bust", which may also factor into the Storm Prediction Center's decision as to whether to cancel the watch.
Example of a tornado watch
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 68
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
825 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 825 AM UNTIL
200 PM EDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST OF ATLANTA
GEORGIA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF CRESTVIEW FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 67...
DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS
WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH SE AL...WRN AND CNTRL GA...AND THE FL
PANHANDLE NEXT FEW HOURS. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AHEAD OF THE
LINE...BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES GIVEN THE FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...DIAL/HALES
Example of a Watch Outline Update
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 68 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 825 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2009 TORNADO WATCH 68 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ALC031-045-061-067-069-261800- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0068.090326T1225Z-090326T1800Z/ AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-045-059-063-131-133-261800- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0068.090326T1225Z-090326T1800Z/ FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN GULF HOLMES JACKSON WALTON WASHINGTON GAC035-037-053-061-063-077-079-099-113-145-149-151-171-197-199- 201-207-215-231-239-243-249-253-255-259-261-263-269-273-285-293- 307-261800- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0068.090326T1225Z-090326T1800Z/ GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTS CALHOUN CHATTAHOOCHEE CLAY CLAYTON COWETA CRAWFORD EARLY FAYETTE HARRIS HEARD HENRY LAMAR MARION MERIWETHER MILLER MONROE MUSCOGEE PIKE QUITMAN RANDOLPH SCHLEY SEMINOLE SPALDING STEWART SUMTER TALBOT TAYLOR TERRELL TROUP UPSON WEBSTER GMZ750-261800- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0068.090326T1225Z-090326T1800Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC...
Example of a Watch Status Message
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 68 VALID 261425Z - 261540Z SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE PNS TO 30 N DHN TO 15 E ATL. ..SPC..03/26/09 ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC...
References
- ↑ Tornado Safety Facts - Tornado Safety 101
- ↑ http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product_sites.php?site=ICT&product=WCN|Watch County Notification Messages