United States presidential election in Michigan, 2004

United States presidential election in Michigan, 2004
Michigan
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 17 0
Popular vote 2,479,183 2,313,746
Percentage 51.23% 47.81%

County Results
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Kerry—<50%
  Bush—<50%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Michigan was won by Democrat nominee John Kerry by a 3.4% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since 1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for the Republicans. Later polling favored Kerry, leading half of the news organizations predicted Kerry would win the state, but the other half still considered it a swing state.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Toss-Up
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Lean Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Leans Kerry
  6. New York Times: Leans Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
  8. Research 2000: Lean Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Battleground
  10. Washington Times: Leans Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Pre-election polling did show a close race early on, but in the fall election Kerry pulled away and won every poll since the month of September. The last 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 49% to 46%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,960,010.[3] Kerry raised $2,496,203.[4]

Advertising and visits

In the fall campaign, Bush visited the state 10 times. Kerry visited 7 visits. Both candidates combined spent over $2 million in advertising each week,[5] but Kerry spent slightly more each week.[6]

Analysis

The state has competitive suburban counties with a large Roman Catholic population. Kerry won this state with 51%. George W. Bush performed moderately well, but below potential, in the state winning a majority of the counties and congressional districts and performing moderately well, but below potential in suburban counties of Oakland and Macomb. Bush's lack of attention to economic issues important to Michigan voters may have been a reason for Kerry's win. Kerry won 70% of Wayne County, Detroit. Both Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush won the state of Michigan.

Results

United States presidential election in Michigan, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 2,479,183 51.3% 17
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) 2,313,746 47.8% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 24,035 0.5% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 10,552 0.2% 0
Green David Cobb 5,325 0.1% 0
US Taxpayers Michael Peroutka 4,980 0.1% 0
Natural Law Walt Brown 1,431 0.0% 0
Totals 4,839,252 100.00% 17
Voter turnout (Voting Age Population) 64.2%

Results breakdown

By county

County Bush Kerry
Alcona County 3,592 2,871
Alger County 2,318 2,395
Allegan County 34,022 19,355
Alpena County 7,665 7,407
Antrim County 8,379 5,072
Arenac County 4,071 4,076
Baraga County 1,977 1,660
Barry County 18,638 11,312
Bay County 25,448 31,049
Benzie County 5,284 4,383
Berrien County 41,076 32,846
Branch County 10,784 7,004
Calhoun County 32,093 29,891
Cass County 12,964 9,537
Charlevoix County 8,214 5,729
Cheboygan County 7,798 5,941
Chippewa County 9,122 7,203
Clare County 7,088 6,984
Clinton County 21,989 15,483
Crawford County 4,017 3,126
Delta County 9,680 9,381
Dickinson County 7,734 5,650
Eaton County 29,781 25,411
Emmet County 10,332 6,846
Genesee County 83,870 128,334
Gladwin County 6,770 6,343
Gogebic County 3,935 4,421
Grand Traverse County 27,446 18,256
Gratiot County 9,834 7,377
Hillsdale County 12,804 7,123
Houghton County 8,889 6,731
Huron County 9,671 7,629
Ingham County 54,734 76,877
Ionia County 16,621 10,647
Iosco County 7,301 6,557
Iron County 3,224 3,215
Isabella County 11,754 12,334
Jackson County 40,029 31,025
Kalamazoo County 57,147 61,462
Kalkaska County 5,084 3,189
Kent County 171,201 116,909
Keweenaw County 781 630
Lake County 2,503 2,675
Lapeer County 25,556 18,086
Leelanau County 7,733 6,048
Lenawee County 25,675 20,787
Livingston County 58,860 33,991
Luce County 1,749 1,045
Mackinac County 3,706 2,819
Macomb County 202,166 196,160
Manistee County 6,295 6,272
Marquette County 14,690 17,412
Mason County 8,124 6,333
Mecosta County 9,710 7,730
Menominee County 5,942 5,326
Midland County 24,369 18,355
Missaukee County 5,055 2,319
Monroe County 37,470 36,089
Montcalm County 14,968 11,471
Montmorency County 3,300 2,196
Muskegon County 35,302 44,282
Newaygo County 13,608 9,057
Oakland County 316,633 319,387
Oceana County 6,677 5,441
Ogemaw County 5,454 5,215
Ontonagon County 2,262 1,863
Osceola County 6,599 4,467
Oscoda County 2,570 1,792
Otsego County 7,470 4,674
Ottawa County 92,048 35,552
Presque Isle County 3,982 3,432
Roscommon County 7,364 6,810
Saginaw County 47,165 54,887
St. Clair County 42,740 36,174
St. Joseph County 15,340 9,648
Sanilac County 12,632 7,883
Schoolcraft County 2,267 2,137
Shiawassee County 19,407 16,881
Tuscola County 15,389 12,631
Van Buren County 17,634 16,151
Washtenaw County 61,455 109,953
Wayne County 257,750 600,047
Wexford County 8,966 6,034

By congressional district

Bush won 10 of 15 congressional districts.[7]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 53% 46% Bart Stupak
2nd 60% 39% Peter Hoekstra
3rd 59% 40% Vern Ehlers
4th 55% 44% Dave Camp
5th 41% 59% Dale Kildee
6th 53% 46% Fred Upton
7th 54% 45% Nick Smith
Joe Schwarz
8th 54% 45% Mike Rogers
9th 51% 49% Joe Knollenberg
10th 57% 43% Candice Miller
11th 53% 47% Thaddeus McCotter
12th 39% 61% Sander Levin
13th 19% 81% Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick
14th 17% 83% John Conyers Jr.
15th 38% 62% John Dingell

Electors

Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:

  1. Carol Vining Moore
  2. Margaret Robinson
  3. Ida I. DeHaas
  4. Marcela L. Ort
  5. Vickie Sue Price
  6. Paul Todd
  7. Leonard Smigielski
  8. Bruce McAttee
  9. Stanley W. Harris
  10. Yvonne Williams
  11. Elizabeth D. Tavarozzi
  12. Charley Jackson
  13. Joan Robinson Cheeks
  14. Roger Short
  15. Harless Scott
  16. Richard Shoemaker
  17. Michael Pitt

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[]
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=26
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  6. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/MI/
  7. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
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