United States presidential election in Pennsylvania, 2004

United States presidential election in Pennsylvania, 2004
Pennsylvania
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 21 0
Popular vote 2,938,095 2,793,847
Percentage 50.92% 48.42%

County Results
  Kerry—80-90%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Bush—<50%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 21 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Pennsylvania was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 2.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or swing state. Although the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in in six subsequent elections since 1992, the margins of victory had become smaller over the past elections, with Republican Donald Trump carrying the state in 2016. On election day, Kerry won the state with 50.9% of the vote, but won only 13 of the 67 counties in Pennsylvania. Most of these 13 counties have the highest populations in the commonwealth. The biggest key to Kerry's victory was winning the County of Philadelphia with 80% of the vote.

Bush was the first President elected to two terms without carrying the Keystone State either time since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916.

Primaries

Eligibility

In order to vote in the primary, one must have been:[1]

  1. "A citizen of the United States for at least one month before the next primary, special, municipal, or general election."
  2. "A resident of Pennsylvania and the election district in which the individual desires to register and vote for at least 30 days before the next primary, special, municipal, or general election."
  3. "At least 13 years of age on or before the day of the next primary, special, municipal, or general election."
  4. A registered member of the party holding the primary

Convicted felons could not vote from prison and were not allowed to register to vote for five years after being released from prison.

Registration

Individuals could register to vote at County Voter Registration offices, through the mail, at a Department of Transportation office, or at various other government agency offices.[2]

Voters must have been registered 30 days prior to the election in order to be eligible to vote.[2]

Democratic primary election

The Democratic primary took place on April 27, 2004. It was open to registered Democrats only.

Results

100% of precincts reporting
Candidate Votes[3] Percentage Delegates
John Kerry 585,683 74.1% 150
Howard Dean 79,799 10.1% 1
John Edwards 76,762 9.7% 0
Dennis Kucinich 30,110 3.8% 0
Lyndon Larouche 17,528 2.2% 0
Uncommitted - 2.2% 27
Total 789,882 100% 178

Note: Twenty seven delegates remained uncommitted until they reached the floor of the convention. Kerry eventually received all 178 delegates from Pennsylvania.[4]

Republican primary election

The Republican primary took place on April 27, 2004. It was open to registered Republicans only. Incumbent President George W. Bush ran unopposed.[5]

General election campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[6]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Toss-Up
  2. Associated Press: Toss-Up
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Toss-Up
  5. Newsweek: Leans Kerry
  6. New York Times: Leans Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
  8. Research 2000: Leans Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Battleground
  10. Washington Times: Battleground
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Al Gore won here in 2000 with barely 50% of the vote. In late October 2004, the state was split at 47% on whether or not to approve of Bush. But Kerry won the poll 48% to 46% in the last Mason Dixon poll.[7] Throughout the election of 2004, Kerry won most of the polls in the upper 40% to lower 50% range. However, Bush polled within the margin of error, usually in the mid 40% range. In the last Real Clear Politics average Kerry was leading with 48% and by almost a 1% margin.[8]

Fundraising

Bush raised $5,030,349.[9] Kerry raised $4,998,861.[10]

Advertising and visits

Bush campaigned heavily in the state and dropped by here over 20 times in 2004. But it wasn't enough to swing the undecided voters as Kerry won the state's electors with almost 51% of the vote, slightly higher than Gore.[11][12]

Analysis

This Kerry victory can be attributed to the overwhelmingly Democratic cities of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Erie. While it should be noted that smaller Kerry-held cities which voted for the Senator by narrow margins assisted him in advancing his margin over President Bush, many political analysts underscored the fact that if Philadelphia were excluded, President George W. Bush would have won Pennsylvania by a fairly slim margin, with 2,663,748 versus 2,395,890 for Kerry. Interestingly, though Pennsylvania is closely divided in most elections, it did not vote Republican in a Presidential election from 1988 to 2016.

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were the biggest contributors to Kerry's victory in Pennsylvania. However, many independents in suburban Philadelphia counties (Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery, and somewhat in Chester) voted for Kerry, which may well have been the deciding factor. Kerry also had narrow margins of victory around cities like Allentown, Scranton, Erie, and the traditionally Democratic Pittsburgh suburbs; he also garnered many votes in certain rural areas such as parts of the Poconos and the Laurel Highlands, and in cities like Reading, Johnstown, Harrisburg, and State College. Bush's margins were extremely large in Central Pennsylvania and the sparsely populated Northern Tier, with traditional GOP cities such as Lancaster, Lebanon, York, Altoona, Huntingdon, and Williamsport strongly throwing their support behind him. This area, along with rural western Maryland, was clearly the most conservative in the Northeast.

Results

United States presidential election in Pennsylvania, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 2,938,095 50.9% 21
Republican George W. Bush (Incumbent) 2,793,847 48.4% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 21,185 0.4% 0
Green David Cobb 6,319 0.1% 0
Constitution Michael Peroutka 6,318 0.1% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 2,656 0.1% 0
Independent Write Ins 1,170 0.1% 0
Totals 5,769,590 100.00% 21
Voter turnout (Voting Age population) 60.5%

By county

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others#
Adams 32.6% 13,764 66.9% 28,247 0.5% 217
Allegheny 57.2% 368,912 42.1% 271,925 0.7% 4,632
Armstrong 38.7% 12,025 60.9% 18,925 0.5% 147
Beaver 51.1% 42,146 48.4% 39,916 0.6% 481
Bedford 26.5% 6,016 73.2% 16,606 0.3% 57
Berks 46.4% 76,309 53.0% 87,122 0.6% 1,056
Blair 33.4% 18,105 66.0% 35,751 0.6% 322
Bradford 33.5% 8,590 66.0% 16,942 0.5% 120
Bucks 51.1% 163,438 48.3% 154,469 0.6% 1,909
Butler 35.2% 30,090 64.3% 54,959 0.4% 376
Cambria 48.7% 32,591 50.8% 34,048 0.5% 344
Cameron 33.0% 794 66.5% 1,599 0.5% 13
Carbon 48.8% 12,223 50.0% 12,519 1.2% 301
Centre 47.8% 30,733 51.6% 33,133 0.6% 387
Chester 47.5% 109,708 52.0% 120,036 0.5% 1,079
Clarion 35.2% 6,049 64.4% 11,063 0.4% 72
Clearfield 39.5% 13,518 60.0% 20,533 0.5% 182
Clinton 41.7% 5,823 57.5% 8,035 0.8% 109
Columbia 39.7% 10,679 59.7% 16,052 0.5% 138
Crawford 41.8% 16,013 57.3% 21,965 0.9% 344
Cumberland 35.8% 37,928 63.8% 67,648 0.5% 506
Dauphin 45.6% 55,299 53.9% 65,296 0.5% 613
Delaware 57.1% 162,601 42.3% 120,425 0.5% 1,512
Elk 45.4% 6,602 54.1% 7,872 0.5% 76
Erie 53.9% 67,921 45.6% 57,372 0.5% 605
Fayette 53.2% 29,120 45.8% 25,045 1.0% 542
Forest 38.4% 989 61.1% 1,571 0.5% 13
Franklin 28.3% 16,562 71.4% 41,817 0.3% 190
Fulton 23.5% 1,475 76.1% 4,772 0.4% 24
Greene 49.3% 7,674 50.0% 7,786 0.7% 105
Huntingdon 32.6% 5,879 67.2% 12,126 0.3% 53
Indiana 43.7% 15,831 55.9% 20,254 0.4% 163
Jefferson 31.0% 6,073 68.4% 13,371 0.6% 116
Juniata 28.0% 2,797 71.4% 7,144 0.6% 65
Lackawanna 56.3% 59,573 42.3% 44,766 1.4% 1,480
Lancaster 33.6% 74,328 65.8% 145,591 0.6% 1,359
Lawrence 49.2% 21,387 50.5% 21,938 0.3% 117
Lebanon 32.5% 18,109 66.6% 37,089 0.8% 467
Lehigh 51.0% 73,940 48.4% 70,160 0.7% 991
Luzerne 51.1% 69,573 47.7% 64,953 1.1% 1,502
Lycoming 31.3% 15,681 67.9% 33,961 0.8% 407
McKean 36.1% 6,294 62.8% 10,941 1.1% 191
Mercer 48.2% 24,831 51.0% 26,311 0.8% 422
Mifflin 29.1% 4,889 69.8% 11,726 1.1% 187
Monroe 49.6% 27,967 49.6% 27,971 0.7% 404
Montgomery 55.6% 222,048 44.0% 175,741 0.5% 1,802
Montour 35.0% 2,666 64.3% 4,903 0.7% 55
Northampton 50.1% 63,446 49.0% 62,102 0.9% 1,192
Northumberland 39.3% 14,602 60.0% 22,262 0.7% 270
Perry 27.9% 5,423 71.6% 13,919 0.4% 85
Philadelphia 80.4% 542,205 19.3% 130,099 0.3% 1,765
Pike 40.6% 8,656 58.4% 12,444 0.9% 199
Potter 28.5% 2,268 70.8% 5,640 0.7% 54
Schuylkill 44.8% 29,231 54.6% 35,640 0.6% 398
Snyder 29.0% 4,348 70.5% 10,566 0.5% 69
Somerset 34.9% 12,842 64.7% 23,802 0.4% 134
Sullivan 36.9% 1,213 62.6% 2,056 0.5% 16
Susquehanna 38.6% 7,351 60.8% 11,573 0.6% 116
Tioga 30.9% 5,437 68.4% 12,019 0.7% 115
Union 35.4% 5,700 64.1% 10,334 0.6% 89
Venango 38.1% 9,024 61.2% 14,472 0.7% 163
Warren 41.7% 8,044 57.1% 10,999 1.2% 230
Washington 50.1% 48,225 49.6% 47,673 0.3% 279
Wayne 36.7% 8,060 62.4% 13,713 0.9% 194
Westmoreland 43.5% 77,774 56.0% 100,087 0.5% 835
Wyoming 38.8% 4,982 60.6% 7,782 0.5% 68
York 35.5% 63,701 63.7% 114,270 0.7% 1,298

By congressional district

Kerry won 10 of 19 congressional districts.[13]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 15% 84% Bob Brady
2nd 12% 87% Chaka Fattah
3rd 53% 47% Phil English
4th 54% 45% Melissa Hart
5th 61% 39% John E. Peterson
6th 48% 52% Jim Gerlach
7th 47% 53% Curt Weldon
8th 48% 51% James C. Greenwood
Mike Fitzpatrick
9th 67% 33% Bill Shuster
10th 60% 40% Don Sherwood
11th 47% 53% Paul E. Kanjorski
12th 49% 51% John Murtha
13th 43% 56% Joe Hoeffel
Allyson Schwartz
14th 30% 69% Michael F. Doyle
15th 50% 50% Pat Toomey
Charlie Dent
16th 61% 38% Joe Pitts
17th 58% 42% Tim Holden
18th 54% 46% Tim Murphy
19th 64% 36% Todd Platts

Electors

Technically the voters of Pa. cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Pa. is allocated 21 electors because it has 19 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 21 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 21 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 21 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

  1. Lynne Abraham
  2. Richard Bloomingdale
  3. Blondell Reynolds Brown
  4. Robert Casey Jr.
  5. Eileen Connelly
  6. H. William DeWeese
  7. John Dougherty
  8. Richard E. Filippi
  9. William George
  10. Renee Gillinger
  11. Jennifer Mann
  12. Robert J. Mellow
  13. Dan Onorato
  14. Juan Ramos
  15. Stephen R. Reed
  16. T.J. Rooney
  17. Jonathan Saidel
  18. John F. Street
  19. Rosemary Trump
  20. Sala Udin
  21. Constance H. Williams

References

  1. ↑ Pennsylvania Department of State
  2. 1 2 Pennsylvania Department of State
  3. ↑ Pennsylvania Department of State - Commissions, Elections, and Legislation
  4. ↑ Pennsylvania Democratic Delegation 2004
  5. ↑ "2004 General Primary". Elections Information. Pennsylvania Department of State. Retrieved August 6, 2012.
  6. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[]
  7. ↑ http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6369953/
  8. ↑ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/pa_polls.html
  9. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  10. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  11. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.11.html
  12. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  13. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/

See also

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