Newfoundland and Labrador general election, 2015

Newfoundland and Labrador general election, 2015

November 30, 2015

All 40 seats in the 48th General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador 21 seats needed for a majority Opinion polls Turnout 55.2%[1]   First party Second party Third party   Leader Dwight Ball Paul Davis Earle McCurdy Party Liberal Progressive Conservative New Democratic Leader since November 17, 2013 September 13, 2014 March 7, 2015 Leader's seat Humber - Gros Morne Topsail-Paradise ran in St. John's West (lost) Last election 6 seats, 19.1% 37 seats, 56.1% 5 seats, 24.6% Seats before 16 28 3 Seats won 31 7 2 Seat change 15 21 1 Popular vote 114,195 60,080 24,130 Percentage 57.2% 30.1% 12.1% Swing 38.1pp 26.0pp 12.5pp

Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. A star (*) marks the party leader’s riding. An (X) means the party leader ran in this riding but failed to win the seat.

Premier before election Paul Davis Progressive Conservative Elected Premier Dwight Ball Liberal

The 2015 Newfoundland and Labrador general election, formally the 49th Newfoundland and Labrador general election, elected members of the House of Assembly in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador. The Progressive Conservative Party which had formed a majority government since the 2011 election, was defeated by the Liberal Party, which won a majority in the new assembly.^[2]

The election had been scheduled for October 13, 2015, under Newfoundland and Labrador's House of Assembly Act, mandating a fixed election day on the second Tuesday in October in the fourth calendar year after the previous election. However, the House of Assembly amended the act in June 2015, to delay the election until November 30, 2015, so that the election campaign would not overlap with the federal election scheduled on October 19, 2015.^[3]

Following the result of the election no party with the word "Conservative" in its name formed the government in either a provincial or federal jurisdiction in Canada for the first time since 1943.^[4][5]

With 55.2% of eligible voters casting a ballot, this election had the lowest turnout of any provincial election since confederation.

Party leadership

Following the 2011 provincial election Liberal leader Kevin Aylward announced his resignation as leader. Aylward was unable to win a seat in the legislature and announced on October 26, 2011, he would step down once his successor was chosen.^[6] On December 15, 2011, the Liberal Party announced that Dwight Ball would become Leader of the Opposition and interim Liberal leader effective January 3, 2012.^[7][8] Party president Judy Morrow announced in December 2011, that the party was not likely to hold a leadership convention until sometime in 2013. On November 17, 2013 Dwight Ball was elected leader of the Liberal Party.^[9]

On January 22, 2014, Kathy Dunderdale announced she was resigning as Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador and leader of the Progressive Conservative Party (PC Party) later that week and that Finance Minister Tom Marshall would replace her until the party selected a new leader.^[10] On January 24, 2014, Marshall was sworn in as the province's 11th premier.^[11] Marshall had indicated that he would not be seeking re-election as the member of the House of Assembly for Humber East and therefore would not contest the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party. The party held its leadership convention on September 13, 2014 and chose Paul Davis as its leader.^[12] Davis was sworn in as the 12th Premier on September 26, 2014.

Timeline

2011

• October 11, 2011: Election held for members of the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly in the 47th General Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador.
• October 26, 2011: Liberal Leader Kevin Aylward announces his resignation after failing to win the district of St. George's-Stephenville East in the election.^[6]
• December 15, 2011: The Liberal Party announces that Humber Valley MHA Dwight Ball will become Leader of the Opposition and interim Liberal leader effective January 3, 2012.^[13]

2012

• January 3, 2012: Dwight Ball becomes interim leader of the Liberal Party of Newfoundland and Labrador.^[13]
• September 13, 2012: Progressive Conservative MHA Tom Osborne announces that he has left the party and will sit as an independent.^[14]

2013

• April 8, 2013: Yvonne Jones (Liberal) resigns her Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair seat to run in a federal by-election in Labrador.^[15]
• June 25, 2013: Lisa Dempster (Liberal) is elected MHA for Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair, following the resignation of Yvonne Jones.
• July 18, 2013: Bay of Islands MHA Eddie Joyce is named Leader of the Opposition and Interim Liberal Leader replacing Dwight Ball who resigned to run for the leadership permanently in the party's 2013 leadership election.^[16][17]
• August 29, 2013: Independent MHA Tom Osborne (former PC) joins the Liberal caucus.^[18]
• October 2, 2013: Jerome Kennedy (PC) resigns his Carbonear-Harbour Grace seat.^[19]
• October 21, 2013: The media reports that NDP Leader Lorraine Michael received a letter signed by all four members of her caucus over the previous weekend calling for a leadership election to be held in 2014.^[20][21] Michael subsequently asks the party to hold a leadership review in 2014 in which her leadership would be voted on, but not a full party convention.^[22]
• October 29, 2013: NDP MHAs Dale Kirby and Christopher Mitchelmore announce that they have left the NDP caucus and will sit as independents.^[23]
• November 17, 2013: Dwight Ball is elected as leader of the Liberal Party.^[24]
• November 26, 2013: Liberal Sam Slade is elected MHA for Carbonear-Harbour Grace.^[25]

2014

• January 20, 2014: PC MHA Paul Lane for Mount Pearl South crosses the floor to the Liberal Party.^[26]
• January 24, 2014: Kathy Dunderdale resigns as Premier. Finance Minister Tom Marshall is sworn in as premier until Dunderdale's successor is chosen.^[10]
• January 27, 2014: Dale Kirby and Christopher Mitchelmore resign their NDP memberships and are now full Independents.^[27]
• February 4, 2014: Dale Kirby and Christopher Mitchelmore cross the floor to the Liberal Party.^[28]
• February 28, 2014: Kathy Dunderdale resigns her Virginia Waters seat.^[29]
• April 9, 2014: Cathy Bennett (Liberal) is elected MHA for Virginia Waters.^[30]
• April 17, 2014: Frank Coleman becomes leader-designate of the Progressive Conservative Party following the withdrawal of sole competitor Bill Barry from the leadership election.^[31]
• May 18, 2014: Following a party crisis in October 2013, Lorraine Michael is endorsed by 75% of NDP members during a leadership review.^[32]
• June 2, 2014: Joan Shea (PC) resigns her St. George's-Stephenville East seat.^[33]
• June 16, 2014: Citing a "significant and challenging family matter," Frank Coleman announces his withdrawal from the Progressive Conservative leadership race.^[34] As the only candidate left in the race, Coleman was to officially become Progressive Conservative leader at the party's convention on July 5, 2014.^[12] Following his withdrawal, Premier Tom Marshall announced that a convention would likely be postponed until after Labour Day.^[34]
• August 26, 2014: Scott Reid (Liberal) is elected MHA for St. George's-Stephenville East.^[35]
• September 5, 2014: Charlene Johnson (PC) resigns her Trinity-Bay de Verde seat.^[36]
• September 13, 2014: Paul Davis is elected leader of the Progressive Conservatives.^[37]
• September 18, 2014: Terry French (PC) resigns his Conception Bay South seat.^[38]
• September 26, 2014: Paul Davis is sworn in as premier.
• November 3, 2014: Tom Marshall (PC) resigns his Humber East seat.^[39]
• November 5, 2014: Rex Hillier (Liberal) is elected MHA for Conception Bay South.^[40]
• November 25, 2014: Steve Crocker (Liberal) and Stelman Flynn (Liberal) are elected as MHAs for Trinity-Bay de Verde and Humber East respectively.^[41]

2015

• January 6, 2015: Lorraine Michael announces she will resign as NDP leader.^[42]
• March 7, 2015: Earle McCurdy is elected leader of the NDP.^[42]
• July 3, 2015: Kevin O'Brien (PC) resigns his Gander seat.^[43]

Campaign

The Liberals consistently held a massive lead in public opinion polling throughout the campaign, with 66 per cent support among decided voters at the outset^[44] and 67 per cent support in a poll released just one week before election day.^[45]

Their lead was so large and so unshakable that some pundits openly speculated that the party could potentially sweep every seat in the province,^[46] although others suggested that this was unlikely.^[47] Numerous ridings in and around St. John's remained more competitive than provincewide polling suggested,^[46] and some voters appeared to be swayed in the final days by the argument that even if they were inclined to support the Liberals, the province's democratic process would not be well-served by giving one party a clean sweep of the legislature with no opposition party to challenge them.^[47]

In the final results, the Liberals did win almost every seat in most of the province, except for a single Progressive Conservative incumbent hanging on in Central Newfoundland; in St. John's, however, the New Democrats successfully retained two of the three seats they held in the city, while the Progressive Conservatives held onto almost every seat in the city's suburbs.

The largest victory in the province was won by Liberal MLA Andrew Parsons in Burgeo-La Poile, who took fully 96.5 per cent of the more than 4,000 votes cast in his riding while neither of his opponents garnered even 100 votes.^[48]

Party standings

This election saw the fourth change-in-government since Newfoundland and Labrador joined confederation in 1949.

 Summary of the current standings of the House of Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador

Party		Leader	Seats
			2015	Current
	Liberal	Dwight Ball	31	30
	Progressive Conservative	Paul Davis	7	7
	New Democratic	Earle McCurdy	2	2
Total			40	40

Results by party

Liberal Party

The Liberal Party won 31 seats making this election their best election since 1999 when the party won 32. However in 1990, the party won 32 of 48 seats (66.7%) while in 2015 they won 31 of 40 seats (77.5%). By percentage, this is the party's best result since 1966 when the party won 39 of 42 seats (92.9%). Dwight Ball is the province's first liberal premier since Roger Grimes. 6 liberal candidates won over 80% of the popular vote in their respective ridings and 4 of these 6 candidates were later appointed to the Executive Council.

Progressive Conservative Party

With this election PC leader Paul Davis became the fourth incumbent premier to not lead his party to re-election (after Joey Smallwood in 1972, Tom Rideout in 1989 and Roger Grimes in 2003). Davis's government had also been the only provincial government where a party with the word "conservative" in the name formed the government. With 7 of 40 seats (17.5%), this is the party's worst result since 1966 when it won 3 of 42 seats.

New Democratic Party

In the 2011 election the NDP placed second in total votes and won 5 seats (a record-high for the party) however since the election 2 NDP MHAs defected to the Liberal Party. Only 2 of the 3 remaining NDP MHAs ran for re-election and these 2 MHAs were the only NDP candidates to win in this election. By percentage of seats however, this is the second-best result the provincial NDP has ever had winning 2 of 40 seats (5%).

Results by region

The district with the highest turnout was Cape St. Francis (71.68%). The district with the lowest turnout was Torngat Mountains (39.50%).^[49]

Party Name			St. John's	St. John's Metro	Avalon/Burin	Central	Western	Labrador	Total
Parties winning seats in the legislature:
	Progressive Conservative	Seats:	0	5	1	1	0	0	7
		Popular Vote:	19.81%	54.74%	29.71%	34.51%	13.50%	18.90%
	Liberal	Seats:	5	1	6	8	7	4	31
		Popular Vote:	50.27%	36.97%	61.80%	55.76%	79.19%	63.41%
	New Democratic	Seats:	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
		Popular Vote:	29.92%	8.29%	8.19%	7.17%	7.31%	17.69%
Parties that won no seats in the legislature
	Independent	Popular Vote:			0.30%	2.56%

Candidates by district

Bold incumbents indicates cabinet members and party leaders are italicized. The premier's name is boldfaced and italicized.

• All candidate names are those on the official list of confirmed candidates; names in media or on party website may differ slightly.
• Names in boldface type represent party leaders.
• † represents that the incumbent is not running again.
• § represents that the incumbent was defeated for nomination.
• ₰ represents that the incumbent ran in another district and lost the nomination
• ‡ represents that the incumbent is running in a different district.

St. John's

Electoral District	Candidates									Incumbent
		PC		Liberal		NDP		Other
Mount Scio 46.81% turnout		Rhonda Churchill Herder 1,104 27.4%		Dale Kirby 1,899 47.1%		Sean Panting 1,030 25.5%				Dale Kirby St. John's North
St. John's Centre 47.58% turnout		Kathie Hicks 490 10.6%		Lynn Sullivan 1,923 41.7%		Gerry Rogers 2,195 47.6%				Gerry Rogers
St. John's East-Quidi Vidi 56.40% turnout		Joshua Collier 478 8.1%		Paul Antle 2,365 40.2%		Lorraine Michael 3,035 51.6%				George Murphy† St. John's East
St. John's West 55.63% turnout		Dan Crummell[50] 1,364 26.8%		Siobhan Coady[50] 2,342 46.0%		Earle McCurdy[50] 1,384 27.2%				Dan Crummell
Virginia Waters-Pleasantville 56.55% turnout		Beth Crosbie 1,826 32.5%		Bernard Davis 2,528 45.0%		Bob Buckingham 1,259 22.4				Lorraine Michael‡ Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi
Waterford Valley 55.13% turnout		Alison Stoodley 792 14.6%		Tom Osborne 3,588 65.9%		Alison Coffin 1,062 19.5%				John Dinn Kilbride
			Merged District
				Tom Osborne St. John's South
Windsor Lake 52.59% turnout		Ryan Cleary 970 20.2%		Cathy Bennett 3,182 66.3%		Don Rowe 647 13.5%				Cathy Bennett Virginia Waters

St. John's suburbs

Electoral District	Candidates									Incumbent
		PC		Liberal		NDP		Other
Cape St. Francis 71.68% turnout		Kevin Parsons 4,086 66.3%		Geoff Gallant 1,613 26.2%		Mark Gruchy 460 7.5%				Kevin Parsons
Conception Bay South 55.03% turnout		Barry Petten 2,360 47.7%		Steve Porter 2,187 44.2%		Jeanne Clarke 398 8.0%				Rex Hillier‡
Mount Pearl North 63.09% turnout		Steve Kent 3,120 51.5%		Randy Simms 2,571 42.4%		Cameron Mercer-Maillet 370 6.1%				Steve Kent
Mount Pearl-Southlands 56.58% turnout		Jim Lester 2,318 42.9%		Paul Lane 2,559 47.4%		Roy Locke 522 9.7%				Paul Lane Mount Pearl South
Conception Bay East – Bell Island 55.46% turnout		David Brazil 3,463 59.2%		Danny Dumaresque 1,582 27.1%		Bill Kavanagh 803 13.7%				David Brazil
Topsail-Paradise 57.58% turnout		Paul Davis 3,381 58.3%		Rex Hillier 2,137 36.9%		Chris Bruce 281 4.8%				Paul Davis Topsail

Avalon Peninsula

Electoral District	Candidates									Incumbent
		PC		Liberal		NDP		Other
Carbonear-Trinity-Bay de Verde 49.02% turnout		Tomas Shea 529 9.1%		Steve Crocker 4,952 85.0%		David Coish 304 5.2%		Ed Cole (Ind.) 38 0.7%		Steve Crocker Trinity-Bay de Verde
			Merged District
				Sam Slade§ Carbonear-Harbour Grace
Ferryland 62.34% turnout		Keith Hutchings 3,093 49.8%		Jeff Marshall 2,550 41.1%		Mona Rossiter 564 9.1%				Keith Hutchings
Harbour Grace-Port de Grave 59.50% turnout		Glenn Littlejohn 2,289 36.3%		Pam Parsons 3,877 61.5%		Kathleen Burt 133 2.1%				Glenn Littlejohn Port de Grave
Harbour Main 56.31% turnout		Curtis Buckle 1,998 34.9%		Betty Parsley 2,253 39.4%		Raymond Flaherty 1,381 24.2%		Ted Noseworthy 85 1.5%		Tom Hedderson†
Placentia-St. Mary's 61.71% turnout		Judy Manning 1,751 30.5%		Sherry Gambin-Walsh 3,789 66.0%		Peter Beck 197 3.4%				Felix Collins†

Eastern Newfoundland

Electoral District	Candidates									Incumbent
		PC		Liberal		NDP		Other
Bonavista 57.80% turnout		Glen Little 1,436 27.0%		Neil King 3,504 65.8%		Adrian Power 116 2.2%		Johanna Ryan Guy (Ind.) 269 5.1%		Glen Little Bonavista South
Burin-Grand Bank 53.60% turnout		Terence Fleming 441 8.8%		Carol Anne Haley 3,962 79.4%		Ambrose Penton 590 11.8%				Darin King† Grand Bank
Placentia West-Bellevue 59.10% turnout		Calvin Peach 1,931 33.7%		Mark Browne 3,645 63.7%		Bobbie Warren 146 2.6%				Calvin Peach Bellevue
			Merged District
				Clyde Jackman† Burin-Placentia West
Terra Nova 57.29% turnout		Sandy Collins 2,422 42.8%		Colin Holloway 2,476 43.7%		Bert Blundon 763 13.5				Sandy Collins Terra Nova
			Merged District
				Ross Wiseman† Trinity North

Central Newfoundland

Electoral District	Candidates									Incumbent
		PC		Liberal		NDP		Other
Baie Verte-Green Bay 55.90% turnout		Kevin Pollard 2,197 39.4%		Brian Warr 3,130 56.1%		Matt Howse 253 4.5%				Kevin Pollard Baie Verte-Springdale
Exploits 56.16% turnout		Clayton Forsey 2,489 47.0%		Jerry Dean 2,654 50.2%		Bridget Henley 148 2.8%				Clayton Forsey
Fogo Island-Cape Freels 48.20% turnout		Eli Cross 1,387 27.6%		Derrick Bragg 3,516 69.9%		Rebecca Stuckey 128 2.5%				Eli Cross Bonavista North
Gander 47.40% turnout		Ryan Menchion 351 7.5%		John Haggie 3,151 67.7%		Lukas Norman 1,152 24.8%				Vacant
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune 67.66% turnout		Tracey Perry 1,830 49.1%		Bill Carter 1,405 37.7%		Mildred Skinner 494 13.2%				Tracey Perry
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans 54.32% turnout		Mark Whiffen 1,061 22.8%		Al Hawkins 2,534 54.6%		Meaghan Keating 141 3.0%		Rex Barnes (Ind.) 908 19.6%		Susan Sullivan† Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans
			Merged District
				Ray Hunter† Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South
Lewisporte-Twillingate 58.44% turnout		Derrick Dalley 2,686 44.5%		Derek Bennett 3,254 53.9%		Hillary Bushell 99 1.6%				Wade Verge† Lewisporte
			Merged District
				Derrick Dalley The Isles of Notre Dame

Western Newfoundland

Electoral District	Candidates									Incumbent
		PC		Liberal		NDP		Other
Burgeo-La Poile 57.73% turnout		Georgia Darmonkow 93 2.2%		Andrew Parsons 3,998 96.5%		Kelly McKeown 53 1.3%				Andrew Parsons
Corner Brook 45.03% turnout		Neville Wheaton 779 16.6%		Gerry Byrne 3,121 66.7%		Holly Pike 781 16.7%				Vaughn Granter Humber West
			Merged District
				Stelman Flynn§ Humber East
Humber - Gros Morne 64.85% turnout		Graydon Pelley 983 16.2%		Dwight Ball 4,610 76.0%		Mike Goosney 474 7.8%				Jim Bennett₰ St. Barbe
			Merged District
				Dwight Ball Humber Valley
Humber-Bay of Islands 52.56% turnout		Ronald Jesseau 564 10.3%		Eddie Joyce 4,622 84.5%		Conor Curtis 282 5.2%				Eddie Joyce Bay of Islands
St. Barbe-L'Anse aux Meadows 52.65% turnout		Ford Mitchelmore 404 8.3%		Chris Mitchelmore 4,359 89.3%		Genevieve Brouillette 117 2.4%				Chris Mitchelmore The Straits-White Bay North
St. George's-Humber 49.68% turnout		Greg Osmond 708 15.2%		Scott Reid 3,618 77.5%		Shane Snook 341 7.3%				Scott Reid St. George's-Stephenville East
Stephenville-Port au Port 51.24% turnout		Tony Cornect 1,273 25.3%		John Finn 3,262 64.8%		Bernice Hancock 499 9.9%				Tony Cornect Port au Port

Labrador

Electoral District	Candidates									Incumbent
		PC		Liberal		NDP		Other
Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair 49.30% turnout		Jason Mackenzie 48 3.2%		Lisa Dempster 1,405 93.0%		Jenn Deon 57 3.8%				Lisa Dempster
Labrador West 53.60% turnout		Nick McGrath 712 21.5%		Graham Letto 1,453 43.8%		Ron Barron 1,152 34.7%				Nick McGrath
Lake Melville 47.97% turnout		Keith Russell 850 28.6%		Perry Trimper 1,840 62.0%		Arlene Michelin-Pittman 280 9.4%				Keith Russell
Torngat Mountains 39.50% turnout		Sharon Vokey 23 2.7%		Randy Edmunds 779 92.6%		Mark Sharkey 39 4.6%				Randy Edmunds

Preliminary results as of 1 December 2015.^[51]

MHAs not running again

Progressive Conservative Felix Collins, Placentia—St. Mary's[52] John Dinn, Kilbride Vaughn Granter, Humber West [53] Tom Hedderson, Harbour Main [54] Ray Hunter, Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South[55] Clyde Jackman, Burin-Placentia West [56] Darin King, Grand Bank [57] Susan Sullivan, Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans [58] Wade Verge, Lewisporte[59] Ross Wiseman, Trinity North[60]

Liberal Jim Bennett, St. Barbe [61] Stelman Flynn, Humber East [62] Sam Slade, Carbonear-Harbour Grace [63] New Democratic Party George Murphy, St. John's East[64]

Opinion polls

Polling Firm	Date of Polling	Link	Progressive Conservative	Liberal	New Democratic
Forum Research	November 29, 2015		31	54	15
Abacus Data	November 22–24, 2015		22	64	13
Forum Research	November 24, 2015		29	52	19
Corporate Research Associates	November 5–22, 2015		22	67	10
MQO	November 5–11, 2015		17	74	9
Forum Research	November 6, 2015		21	65	13
Abacus Data	October 30–November 4, 2015		19	66	15
Corporate Research Associates	August 11–September 2, 2015		27	48	25
Abacus Data/VOCM	June 17–21, 2015		21	53	25
Corporate Research Associates	May 11–June 1, 2015		27	50	22
Corporate Research Associates	February 9–March 2, 2015		31	56	13
Abacus Data	February 17–25, 2015		32	57	9
Corporate Research Associates	November 5–30, 2014		29	60	10
MQO	October 20–25, 2014		28	62	11
Corporate Research Associates	August 7–September 1, 2014		26	58	15
Abacus Data/VOCM	July 28–August 1, 2014		34	48	16
Corporate Research Associates	May 12–31, 2014		29	53	16
Corporate Research Associates	February 11– March 4, 2014		33	53	13
Abacus Data/VOCM	January 27–30, 2014		34	49	15
Corporate Research Associates	November 7–30, 2013		29	52	19
MQO	October 22–26, 2013	[65]	29	52	18
Corporate Research Associates	August 8–31, 2013		26	41	33
Corporate Research Associates	May 8–30, 2013		27	36	37
Corporate Research Associates	February 11–March 8, 2013	PDF	38	22	39
MQO	January 21–27, 2013	[66]	36	28	35
Corporate Research Associates	November 13-December 1, 2012	[67]	46	23	31
Corporate Research Associates	August 9–September 2, 2012	PDF	45	22	33
Environics Research Group	June 19–29, 2012	PDF	35	26	38
Corporate Research Associates	May 10–June 4, 2012	PDF	49	18	33
Corporate Research Associates	February 13–29, 2012	HTML	54	18	28
Corporate Research Associates	November 9–29, 2011	PDF	60	13	26
Election 2011	October 11, 2011	–	56.1	19.1	24.6

References

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