Opinion polling for the Italian constitutional referendum, 2016

The Italian constitutional referendum will take place on 4 December 2016. Opinion polling for the Italian constitutional referendum was ongoing in the months between the announcement of a referendum and the referendum polling day.

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Polling data about the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum.

Polls

Date	Polling Firm	Total					Considering only Yes/No vote
		Yes	No	None / Don't know	Lead		Yes	No	Lead
9 Nov 2016	Index Research	37.3	40.7	22.0	3.4		47.8	52.2	4.4
9 Nov 2016	Istituto Ixè	37.0	40.0	23.0	3.0		48.0	52.0	4.0
4–6 Nov 2016	EMG Acqua	34.8	38.3	26.9	3.5		47.6	52.4	4.8
4–5 Nov 2016	Instituto Tecnè	39.5	44.5	16.0	1.0		47.0	53.0	6.0
3–4 Nov 2016	Demopolis	35.9	38.1	26.0	2.2		48.5	51.5	3.0
2 Nov 2016	Eumetra Monterosa	26.0	32.0	42.0	6.0		45.0	55.0	10.0
2 Nov 2016	Index Research	38.1	40.9	21.0	2.8		48.2	51.8	3.6
2 Nov 2016	Istituto Ixè	38.0	39.0	23.0	1.0		49.0	51.0	2.0
28–30 Oct 2016	EMG Acqua	34.7	37.6	27.7	2.9		48.0	52.0	4.0
27–29 Oct 2016	Istituto Tecnè	23.0	25.8	51.2	2.8		47.1	52.9	5.8
27–28 Oct 2016	ScenariPolitici–Winpoll	25.2	27.8	47.0	2.6		47.5	52.5	5.0
26–27 Oct 2016	Demopolis	36.1	36.9	27.0	0.8		49.5	50.5	1.0
26–27 Oct 2016	Index Research	39.5	41.5	19.0	2.0		48.7	51.3	2.6
24–27 Oct 2016	Demos&Pi	35.0	39.0	26.0	4.0		47.3	52.7	5.4
26 Oct 2016	Eumetra Monterosa	23.0	27.0	50.0	4.0		46.0	54.0	8.0
26 Oct 2016	Istituto Ixè	37.0	40.0	23.0	2.0		48.1	51.9	3.8
22–23 Oct 2016	EMG Acqua	34.7	37.8	27.5	3.1		47.9	52.1	4.2
21–22 Oct 2016	IPR Marketing	24.1	24.9	51.0	0.8		49.2	50.8	1.6
21–22 Oct 2016	Tecnè	23.3	25.7	51.0	2.4		47.5	52.5	5.0
21–22 Oct 2016	Tecnè	23.3	25.7	51.0	2.0		47.5	52.5	5.0
21 Oct 2016	ScenariPolitici–Winpoll	25.9	28.1	46.0	2.2		48.0	52.0	4.0
18–19 Oct 2016	Index Research	38.8	41.2	20.0	2.4		48.5	51.5	3.0
17–19 Oct 2016	Demopolis	37.2	35.8	27.0	1.4		51.0	49.0	2.0
18 October 2016	U.S. President Barack Obama endorses the Yes
15–16 Oct 2016	EMG Acqua	33.8	37.0	29.2	3.2		47.7	52.3	4.6
15 Oct 2016	IPR Marketing	23.3	24.7	52.0	1.4		48.5	51.5	3.0
14–15 Oct 2016	Tecnè	23.5	25.5	51.0	2.0		48.0	52.0	4.0
14 Oct 2016	ScenariPolitici–Winpoll	25.4	28.6	46.0	3.2		47.0	53.0	6.0
11–12 Oct 2016	Index Research	38.9	41.1	20.0	2.2		48.6	51.4	2.8
12 Oct 2016	Istituto Ixè	37.0	37.0	26.0	0.0		50.0	50.0	0.0
10–12 Oct 2016	Demopolis	35.0	36.0	29.0	1.0		49.3	50.7	1.4
8–9 Oct 2016	EMG Acqua	32.3	36.3	31.4	3.0		47.1	52.9	5.8
5 Oct 2016	Istituto Ixè	38.0	37.0	25.0	1.0		50.7	49.3	1.4
3–5 Oct 2016	Sondaggi Bidimedia–Bi3	23.2	26.8	50.0	3.6		46.5	53.5	7.0
3–4 Oct 2016	Index Research	37.7	40.3	22.0	2.6		48.3	51.7	3.4
1–2 Oct 2016	EMG Acqua	31.4	36.0	32.6	2.2		46.6	53.4	6.8
30 Sep–1 Oct 2016	Ipsos SRL	23.0	25.0	44.0	2.0		48.0	52.0	4.0
29–30 Sep 2016	ScenariPolitici–Winpoll	25.2	27.8	47.0	2.6		47.5	52.5	5.0
28 Sep 2016	Istituto Ixè	38.0	36.0	26.0	2.0		51.4	48.6	2.8
27–28 Sep 2016	Index Research	34.4	36.6	29.0	2.2		48.5	51.5	3.0
25–27 Sep 2016	Demopolis	35.6	36.4	28.0	0.8		49.5	50.5	1.0
26 September 2016	The Government announces the date of the referendum
24–25 Sep 2016	EMG Acqua	29.6	35.5	34.9	5.9		45.5	54.5	9.0
22–23 Sep 2016	Lorien Consulting	37.0	36.0	27.0	1.0		50.7	49.3	1.4
21 Sep 2016	Eumetra Monterosa	17.0	21.0	62.0	4.0
21 Sep 2016	Istituto Ixè	38.0	35.0	27.0	3.0		52.1	47.9	4.2
20–21 Sep 2016	Index Research	35.8	37.2	27.0	1.4		49.0	51.0	2.0
17–18 Sep 2016	EMG Acqua	30.1	34.1	35.8	4.0		46.9	53.1	6.2
14 Sep 2016	Istituto Ixè	39.0	37.0	24.0	2.0		52.0	48.0	4.0
10–11 Sep 2016	EMG Acqua	28.5	30.8	40.7	2.3		48.1	51.9	3.8
7 Sep 2016	Istituto Ixè	40.0	36.0	24.0	4.0		52.6	47.4	5.2
3–4 Sep 2016	EMG Acqua	26.9	28.4	44.7	1.5		48.7	51.3	2.6
31 Aug 2016	Istituto Ixè	42.0	35.0	23.0	7.0		54.5	45.5	9.0
24–26 Aug 2016	ScenariPolitici–Winpoll	23.5	27.5	49.0	4.0		46.0	54.0	8.0
9–11 Aug 2016	ScenariPolitici–Winpoll	23.0	26.0	51.0	3.0		47.0	53.0	6.0
3 Aug 2016	Istituto Ixè	45.0	36.0	19.0	9.0		55.6	44.4	11.2
30–31 Jul 2016	EMG Acqua	28.9	29.5	42.0	0.6		49.1	50.9	1.8
27–28 Jul 2016	ScenariPolitici–Winpoll	21.8	24.2	54.0	2.4		47.5	52.5	5.0
27 Jul 2016	Istituto Ixè	44.0	38.0	18.0	6.0		53.7	46.3	7.4
23–24 Jul 2016	EMG Acqua	28.5	30.1	41.4	1.6		48.6	51.4	2.8
16–17 Jul 2016	EMG Acqua	27.8	29.5	42.7	1.7		48.5	51.5	3.0
16–18 Jul 2016	Demopolis	37.0	37.0	26.0	0.0	50.0	50.0	0.0
12–13 Jul 2016	Ipsos SRL	26.0	25.0	49.0	1.0	51.0	49.0	2.0
11 Jul 2016	Demos&Pi	37.0	30.0	33.0	7.0	55.2	44.8	10.4
9–10 Jul 2016	EMG Acqua	26.9	28.7	44.4	1.8	48.4	51.6	3.2
15 Jul 2016	IPR Marketing	24.0	26.0	50.0	2.0	48.0	52.0	4.0
6 Jul 2016	Istituto Ixè	27.0	32.0	41.0	5.0	45.8	54.2	8.4
4 Jul 2016	Euromedia Research	28.6	34.0	37.4	5.4	45.7	54.3	8.6
2–3 Jul 2016	EMG Acqua	27.4	29.9	42.7	2.5	47.8	52.2	4.4
27 Jun 2016	Euromedia Research	29.0	33.5	37.5	4.5	46.4	53.6	7.2
25–26 Jun 2016	EMG Acqua	29.3	29.0	41.7	0.3	50.3	49.7	0.6
23–24 Jun 2016	ScenariPolitici–Winpoll	22.1	25.9	52.0	3.8	46.0	54.0	8.0
23 Jun 2016	Istituto Ixè	34.6	37.4	28.0	2.8	48.0	52.0	4.0
19 Jun 2016	Local elections in many important cities (2nd round)
18–19 Jun 2016	EMG Acqua	28.6	27.2	44.2	1.4	51.3	48.7	2.6
15 Jun 2016	Euromedia Research	29.0	33.0	38.0	4.0	46.8	53.2	6.4
6 Jun 2016	Euromedia Research	29.9	32.5	37.6	2.6	47.9	52.1	4.2
5 Jun 2016	Local elections in many important cities (1st round)
3–4 Jun 2016	Index Research	42.0	38.0	20.0	4.0	52.5	47.5	5.0
3–4 Jun 2016	EMG Acqua	26.0	24.2	49.8	1.8	51.8	48.2	3.6
21 May 2016	Just a Yes campaign officially begins
18 May 2016	Istituto Ixè	33.1	35.9	31.0	2.8	48.0	52.0	4.0
16–17 May 2016	IPR Marketing	32.0	23.0	55.0	4.5	54.0	46.0	9.0
16 May 2016	Istituto Piepoli	41.0	33.0	26.0	8.0	55.4	44.6	10.8
14–15 May 2016	EMG Acqua	26.1	23.7	50.2	2.4	52.4	47.6	4.8
12–14 May 2016	Index Research	44.0	34.0	22.0	10.0	56.4	43.6	12.8
13 May 2016	Tecnè	29.1	25.9	45.0	3.2	53.0	47.0	6.0
10–13 May 2016	ScenariPolitici–Winpoll	29.7	30.3	40.0	0.6	49.5	50.5	1.0
11 May 2016	Istituto Ixè	33.1	38.9	28.0	5.8	46.0	54.0	8.0
9 May 2016	Istituto Piepoli	46.0	28.0	26.0	8.0	62.0	38.0	24.0
4 May 2016	Eumetra Monterosa	17.0	26.0	57.0	9.0	39.5	60.5	21.0
2 May 2016	Euromedia Research	30.0	32.5	37.5	2.5	48.0	52.0	4.0
29–30 Apr 2016	Index Research	50.0	30.0	20.0	20.0	62.5	37.5	25.0
27 Apr 2016	Istituto Ixè	35.7	34.3	30.0	1.4	51.0	49.0	2.0
26–27 Apr 2016	Demopolis	27.3	19.7	53.0	7.6	58.0	42.0	16.0
20 Apr 2016	Istituto Ixè	36.6	32.4	31.0	4.2	53.0	47.0	6.0
18 Apr 2016	Euromedia Research	25.3	24.7	50.0	0.3	50.3	49.7	0.6
15 Apr 2016	Euromedia Research	26.0	28.1	45.9	2.1	48.1	51.9	3.8
12–13 Apr 2016	ScenariPolitici–Winpoll	29.0	32.0	39.0	3.0	47.5	52.5	5.0
12 Apr 2016	The Parliament approves the constitutional reform bill
29 Mar 2016	Euromedia Research	26.2	25.8	48.0	0.4	50.4	49.6	0.8
10–11 Mar 2016	Index Research	52.0	25.0	23.0	27.0	68.0	32.0	36.0
22–25 Feb 2016	Demetra	60.0	21.0	19.0	39.0	74.0	26.0	48.0
22–25 Feb 2016	Demos&Pi	50.0	24.0	26.0	16.0	68.0	32.0	36.0
17 Feb 2016	Index Research	53.0	17.0	30.0	36.0	76.0	24.0	52.0
8 Feb 2016	Istituto Piepoli	42.2	23.8	34.0	21.6	64.0	36.0	28.0
5 Jan 2016	Euromedia Research	24.0	25.0	51.0	1.0	49.0	51.0	2.0
27–28 Jan 2016	Ipsos SRL	21.0	16.0	63.0	5.0	57.0	43.0	14.0
27 Jan 2016	Istituto Ixè	45.0	36.0	19.0	9.0	56.0	44.0	12.0
25 Jan 2016	Ipsos SRL	22.0	15.0	63.0	7.0	59.0	41.0	18.0
23–24 Jan 2016	EMG Acqua	34.5	14.8	50.7	19.7	69.9	30.1	39.8
15–20 Jan 2016	Index Research	59.8	28.2	12.0	31.6	68.0	32.0	36.0
13 Jan 2016	Istituto Ixè	44.0	32.0	24.0	12.0	58.0	42.0	16.0
9–11 Jan 2016	Demopolis	60.0	21.0	19.0	18.2	74.0	26.0	48.0
9–10 Jan 2016	EMG Acqua	36.1	17.9	46.0	18.2	66.8	33.2	33.6
16–24 Nov 2015	Demetra	60.0	18.3	21.7	18.3	68.3	31.7	36.6
9 Nov 2015	Euromedia Research	50.0	30.4	19.6	9.8	59.8	40.2	19.6
30 Oct 2015	I Vote No campaign officially begins
14 Oct 2015	Istituto Ixè	32.0	34.0	34.0	2.0	48.0	52.0	4.0
11–13 Oct 2015	Demopolis	67.0	18.0	15.0	49.0	79.0	21.0	58.0
12 Oct 2015	IPR Marketing	46.0	33.0	21.0	13.0	58.0	42.0	16.0
12 Oct 2015	Tecnè	41.0	35.0	24.0	6.0	54.0	46.0	8.0
5 Oct 2015	Euromedia Research	32.8	32.5	34.7	0.3	50.2	49.8	0.4
21 Sep 2015	Istituto Piepoli	48.0	41.0	11.0	7.0	54.0	46.0	8.0
31 May 2015	Regional elections in seven regions
11 Mar 2015	Istituto Ixè	28.0	41.0	31.0	4.0	41.0	59.0	18.0
4 Ago 2014	Istituto Piepoli	46.0	41.0	13.0	5.0	52.9	47.1	5.8
7 Jul 2014	Istituto Piepoli	53.0	35.0	12.0	18.0	60.0	40.0	20.0
28-30 Jun 2014	Lorien Consulting	29.0	21.0	50.0	4.0	54.0	46.0	8.0
25 May 2014	Democratic landslide victory in the European election
7 Apr 2014	IPR Marketing	57.0	23.0	20.0	34.0	71.0	29.0	42.0
31 Mar 2014	Istituto Piepoli	66.0	24.0	10.0	42.0	73.0	27.0	46.0
31 Mar 2014	Ipsos SRL	63.0	24.0	13.0	39.0	72.0	28.0	44.0
Source: Sondaggi Politico Elettorali – Italian Government