Opinion polling for the Peruvian national election, 2006

Opinion polling for the 2006 Peruvian national election was carried out by pollsters authorized by the National Election Jury both in the races for the Presidency and Congress.

Several candidates expressed skepticism about poll results and even accused the pollsters of deliberately lying. The Peruvian Association of Market Research (Asociación Peruana de Investigación de Mercados, APEIM) rejected such criticism and demanded formal apologies by those who accused the companies. APEIM also criticized the pollster IDICE, not belonging to the association, for critical flaws in its methodology. The company's results are nevertheless included in the section below.

Also, it is illegal to publish electoral opinion polls in Peru during the week prior to an election. Pollsters, however, released their results to the foreign press during the week before the First Round and these were widely available on the Internet. This drew criticism from electoral authorities, even though no law was technically broken.

Poll results

The following is a collection of polls relating to the 2006 Peruvian national election. Only polls conducted nationwide are included, though some have an urban bias. The results below only consider the eventual top five presidential candidates, top six congressional lists and, in the case of the hypothetical runoff, matchups between the top three presidential candidates. Little information is available on the other options.

The dates indicate when each survey was conducted. If the sources are not clear about the precise dates, either the month or the date of publication is indicated. In the latter case, the date is marked with a (p).

Unless stated otherwise, entries correspond to percentages over the total number of votes. When reported in terms of "valid" votes, the percentages are included in parentheses. Valid votes are those cast for exactly one presidential ticket or one congressional party list, thus excluding blank, multiple-party votes and undecided voters. The official results consider only valid votes.

Entries with "n/a" correspond to instances in which the relevant question was not asked, the option was not given, or the quantity was not deemed significant enough when the survey was published.

The abbreviations used for parties are as follows (coalition members are indented):

UPP - Union for Peru (Unión por el Perú)

PNP - Peruvian Nationalist Party (Partido Nacionalista Peruano)

PAP - Peruvian Aprista Party (Partido Aprista Peruano)
UN - National Unity (Unidad Nacional)

SN - National Solidarity (Solidaridad Nacional)

AF - Alliance for the Future (Alianza por el Futuro)

C90 - Change 90 (Cambio 90)
NM - New Majority (Nueva Mayoría)

FC - Center Front (Frente de Centro)

AP - Popular Action (Acción Popular)
SP - We Are Peru (Somos Perú)

PP - Peru Possible (Perú Posible)
SC - Sí Cumple

The abbreviations used for pollsters are:

Apoyo - Apoyo Opinión y Mercado
AyC - Analistas y Consultores
Conecta - Conecta Asociados
CPI - Compañía Peruana de Investigación de Mercados
y Opinión Pública
Datum - Datum Internacional
IDICE - Instituto de Desarrollo e Investigación
de Ciencias Económicas

IMA - IMA Estudios de Marketing
POP - Peruana de Opinión Pública
PUCP - Instituto de Opinión Pública,
Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
UAP - Universidad Alas Peruanas
UL - Grupo de Opinión Pública, Universidad de Lima
UNI - Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales,
Universidad Nacional de Ingeniería

Presidential Election

The deadline for the registration of presidential candidates was 9 January 2006. Polls conducted before this date are more speculative in nature, since the final set of options was not yet known before then.

First Round

Dates	Pollster	O. Humala (UPP)	A. García (PAP)	L. Flores (UN)	M. Chávez (AF)	V. Paniagua (FC)
Jan 2005	Datum	3%	18%	17%	n/a	24%
1-8 April 2005	CPI	2.8%	17.5%	16.0%	7.2%	14.7%
Apr 2005	Apoyo	5%	21%	17%	n/a	23%
May 2005	Datum	3%	19%	23%	n/a	29%
June 2005	Datum	5%	20%	19%	n/a	16%
6–12 July 2005	CPI	2.3%	15.5%	17.5%	9.6%	12.8%
Aug 2005	Apoyo	7%	18%	22%	n/a	18%
Aug 2005	Datum	5%	20%	26%	n/a	19%
Sep 2005	Datum	5%	18%	23%	n/a	13%
10-14 October 2005	Apoyo	8%	17%	27%	n/a	15%
13-23 October 2005	IDICE	9.1%	23.6%	26.5%	n/a	7.6%
22-28 October 2005	CPI	5.1%	12.0%	27.6%	9.5%	10.0%
10-11 November 2005	Apoyo	11%	17%	28%	n/a	17%
12-15 November 2005	Datum	13%	16%	30%	n/a	15%
19-23 November 2005	CPI	15.0%	13.4%	25.6%	1.5%	11.3%
3-4 December 2005	UL	14.6%	16.2%	25.6%	2.4%	8.3%
3-8 December 2005	Apoyo	22%	16%	25%	n/a	14%
16-19 November 2005	Datum	23%	15%	26%	1%	12%
19-23 December 2005	IDICE	21.7%	19.8%	21.2%	n/a	16.7%
9-12 January 2006	IDICE	26.3%	20.3%	20.7%	7.0%	11.2%
11-13 January 2006	Apoyo	28%	15%	25%	2%	10%
13-14 January 2006	Datum	25%	14%	26%	n/a	11%
16-19 January 2006	POP	25%	14%	30%	2%	11%
20-22 January 2006	UL	16.8%	11.9%	28.1%	2.5%	7.2%
21-23 January 2006	AyC	19.5%	14.6%	30.9%	1.8%	14.2%
21-24 January 2006	CPI	18.2%	13.1%	28.8%	n/a	6.3%
25-27 January 2006	Apoyo	22%	13%	30%	n/a	8%
21-28 January 2006	IMA	18.7%	14.7%	27.2%	4.2%	5.5%
3-5 February 2006	IDICE	18.4%	20.8%	27.2%	8.1%	6.1%
8-10 February 2006	Apoyo	20% (25%)	13% (17%)	27% (35%)	4% (6%)	7% (8%)
10-11 February 2006	Datum	24% (28%)	15% (18%)	29% (34%)	4% (5%)	8% (10%)
11-15 February 2006	UAP	21.4%	16.8%	23.3%	3.5%	6.0%
15-17 February 2006	Conecta	18.3% (18.3%)	16.0% (20.5%)	27.3% (34.8%)	3.5% (4.4%)	8.6% (11.0%)
16-18 February 2006	AyC	19.4%	16.3%	29.2%	3.8%	4.9%
22-24 February 2006	Apoyo	19% (26%)	16% (22%)	24% (33%)	3% (4%)	5% (7%)
24-26 February 2006	PUCP	20% (25%)	14% (18%)	29% (35%)	4% (5%)	6% (8%)
24-26 February 2006	UL	20.6% (27.6%)	15.3% (20.5%)	25.1% (33.6%)	3.6% (4.8%)	6.4% (8.5%)
24-26 February 2006	IDICE	19.3%	22.4%	24.3%	7.1%	5.6%
26 February 2006 (p)	POP	22%	16%	30%	4%	n/a
23-27 February 2006	CPI	(25.5%)	(21.5%)	(34.1%)	(4.9%)	(7.8%)
24 February-2 March 2006	IMA	21.6%	20.1%	26.9%	2.8%	4.5%
8-10 March 2006	Apoyo	22% (30%)	16% (22%)	23% (31%)	4% (5%)	4% (5%)
10-12 March 2006	Datum	26%	19%	27%	4%	8%
11-13 March 2006	IDICE	23.3%	22.8%	23.6%	5.0%	6.1%
15-17 March 2006	Apoyo	27% (32%)	17% (21%)	23% (28%)	6% (6%)	6% (7%)
15-19 March 2006	CPI	(31.6%)	(21.6%)	(21.9%)	(5.5%)	(6.0%)
18-19 March 2006	UNI	28.8%	16.3%	24.8%	3.8%	5.3%
19 March 2006	UAP	28.9%	16.9%	23.1%	5.5%	5.9%
20-22 March 2006	IDICE	26.8%	24.4%	21.6%	5.7%	4.7%
22-24 March 2006	Apoyo	27% (33%)	18% (22%)	22% (27%)	6% (7%)	5% (6%)
23-25 March 2006	Conecta	30.4% (30.4%)	18.3% (20.6%)	24.5% (27.7%)	5.1% (5.7%)	4.4% (5.0%)
24-26 March 2006	PUCP	27% (31%)	18% (20%)	24% (27%)	6% (7%)	6% (7%)
24-26 March 2006	UL	28.2% (32.6%)	19.9% (22.7%)	22.9% (26.1%)	5.4% (6.3%)	4.9% (5.6%)
27 March 2006 (p)	Datum	31%	21%	26%	6%	5%
27-31 March 2006	CPI	(31.5%)	(23.1%)	(26.8%)	(5.9%)	(6.7%)
27-31 March 2006	Apoyo	26% (31%)	19% (23%)	22% (26%)	6% (7%)	5% (6%)
4-6 April 2006	IDICE	27.7% (31.8%)	22.6% (25.9%)	19.6% (22.5%)	3.9% (4.5%)	7.5% (8.6%)
5 April 2006	Datum	(26%)	(24%)	(24%)	(8%)	(7%)
5 April 2006	UL	26.2% (29.2%)	19.7% (21.9%)	23.0% (25.6%)	7.4% (8.3%)	6.4% (7.2%)
8 April 2006	Apoyo	24% (27%)	21% (23%)	21% (23%)	7% (7%)	7% (8%)

Hypothetical Runoff Election (polls before First Round)

Dates	Pollster	O. Humala (UPP) vs A. García (PAP)	O. Humala (UPP) vs L. Flores (UN)	A. García (PAP) vs L. Flores (UN)
13-23 October 2005	IDICE	n/a	n/a	35.4% - 42.1%
22-28 October 2005	CPI	n/a	n/a	23.6% - 51.5%
10-11 November 2005	Apoyo	30% - 31%	23% - 58%	23% - 56%
12-15 November 2005	Datum	n/a	23% - 58%	23% - 54%
3-4 December 2005	UL	33.0% - 34.5%	27.1% - 60.4%	25.9% - 59.6%
3-8 December 2005	Apoyo	44% - 31%	35% - 50%	26% - 54%
16-19 December 2005	Datum	n/a	34% - 50%	24% - 53%
11-13 January 2006	Apoyo	44% - 29%	39% - 46%	23% - 56%
13-14 January 2006	Datum	41% - 28%	35% - 50%	25% - 52%
20-22 January 2006	UL	34.2% – 32.9%	27.7% - 51.1%	22.6% - 60.0%
25-27 January 2006	Apoyo	40% - 30%	34% - 52%	22% - 57%
21-28 January 2006	IMA	31.5% - 29.2%	27.5% - 46.0%	22.9% - 44.6%
8-10 February 2006	Apoyo	37% - 35% (51% - 49%)	33% - 52% (39% - 61%)	27% - 54% (33% - 67%)
10-11 February 2006	Datum	n/a	34% - 50%	25% - 54%
11-15 February 2006	UAP	34.9% - 28.3%	32.6% - 42.8%	24.8% - 44.6%
15-17 February 2006	Conecta	32% - 29%	31% - 48%	26% - 45%
22-24 February 2006	Apoyo	36% – 37% (50% - 50%)	34% - 50% (40% - 60%)	31% - 50% (38% - 62%)
23-27 February 2006	CPI	34.8% - 37.5% (48.1% - 51.9%)	31.1% - 48.6% (39.0% - 61.0%)	29.0% - 47.9% (37.7% - 62.3%)
24-26 February 2006	PUCP	33.7% – 33.5%	30.2% - 50.5%	26.8% - 51.1%
24-26 February 2006	UL	36.7% – 32.3%	33.3% - 49.6%	27.1% - 52.2%
24 February-2 March 2006	IMA	32.3% - 33.8%	28.8% - 43.1%	28.4% - 40.9%
8-10 March 2006	Apoyo	41% - 36% (52% - 47%)	39% - 46% (46% - 54%)	32% - 47% (41% - 59%)
10-12 March 2006	Datum	40% - 33%	36% - 47%	29% - 48%
15-17 March 2006	Apoyo	45% - 33% (57% - 43%)	43% - 44% (50% - 50%)	33% - 46% (41% - 59%)
15-19 March 2006	CPI	38.5% – 32.0% (54.3% - 45.7%)	36.6% - 41.5% (47.1% - 52.9%)	29.0% - 43.2% (40.5% - 59.5%)
18-19 March 2006	UNI	39.1% - 29.6%	37.5% - 40.4%	28.3% - 42.9%
19 March 2006	UAP	39.5% - 29.5%	38.8% - 38.8%	28.2% - 41.2%
22-24 March 2006	Apoyo	42% - 39% (52% - 48%)	40% - 47% (47% - 53%)	35% - 46% (43% - 57%)
23-25 March 2006	Conecta	41% - 33%	39% - 41%	31% - 41%
24-26 March 2006	PUCP	(53% - 47%)	(45% - 55%)	(41% - 59%)
24-26 March 2006	UL	43.9% - 36.7%	41.3% - 46.6%	31.5% - 48.0%
27-31 March 2006	Apoyo	39% - 37% (51% - 49%)	38% - 46% (45% - 55%)	32% - 45% (42% - 58%)
27-31 March 2006	CPI	(49.7 - 50.3%)	(44.9% - 55.1%)	(41.5% - 58.5%)
5 April 2006	UL	37.7% - 41.3%	37.3% - 48.6%	n/a

Runoff Election (polls after First Round)

Dates	Pollster	Ollanta Humala (UPP)	Alan García (PAP)
19-21 April 2006	Datum	37% (46%)	43% (54%)
29 April-1 May 2006	Datum	34% (44%)	43% (56%)
28 April-3 May 2006	IDICE	34.8% (45.9%)	42.5% (55.0%)
19-21 April 2006	Apoyo	34% (43%)	44% (57%)
2–7 May 2006	CPI	(38.6%)	(61.4%)
6–8 May 2006	Datum	33% (43%)	44% (57%)
10–12 May 2006	Apoyo	34% (44%)	43% (56%)
12–14 May 2006	UL	31.1% (38.1%)	50.6% (61.9%)
18–19 May 2006	Datum	35% (42%)	47% (58%)
18–21 May 2006	PUCP	35% (46%)	42% (54%)
19–21 May 2006	UL	31.3% (38.8%)	49.3% (61.2%)
24–25 May 2006	CPI	(40.1%)	(59.9%)
23–26 May 2006	IDICE	36.8% (36.8%)	48.2% (56.7%)
24–26 May 2006	Apoyo	36% (45%)	44% (55%)
25–26 May 2006	Datum	(42%)	(58%)
27 May 2006 (p)	Conecta	34.7% (43.1%)	45.8% (56.9%)
30–31 May 2006	Apoyo	(47%)	(53%)
31 May 2006	Datum	(43%)	(57%)
31 May 2006	UL	(44.1%)	(55.9%)
31 May-1 June 2006	CPI	(46.2%)	(53.8%)
3 June 2006	Apoyo	(47%)	(53%)

Congressional Election

The deadline for the registration of congressional candidates was 8 February 2006. Polls conducted before this date are more speculative. For many of these early polls, several coalitions were not even official, so some responses included parties which did not end up running by themselves. These are included in some entries below, along with the appropriate abbreviation as outlined above.

In particular, while the Sí Cumple party did not officially belong to Alliance for the Future, pollsters themselves often lumped it together with the other fujimorista movements before the AF coalition came into being, largely due to the perception that the same politicians belonged to these parties. This is not technically correct, but Sí Cumple results are still included below, though with an asterisk to make the difference clear (SC*).

Projected seat allocation in Congress, out of 120 seats, are included in square brackets when available.

Dates	Pollster	UPP	PAP	UN	AF	FC	PP
13-23 October 2005	IDICE	10.7% PNP	17.7%	13.1%	11.1% SC*	7.9% AP 5.3% SP	2.2%
22-28 October 2005	CPI	3.4% PNP	13.8%	14.3% 10.4% SN	8.6% SC*	10.2% AP 3.1% SP	1.3%
10-11 November 2005	Apoyo	8%	17%	15%	12% C90/NM/SC*	8% AP 4% SP	2%
12-15 November 2005	Datum	2% PNP	15%	17%	9% C90/SC*	9% AP 2% SP	2.2%
3-4 December 2005	UL	1.6%	17.1%	18.2%	6.4% SC*	10.6% AP	2.3%
16-19 December 2005	Datum	9 % PNP	17%	24%	4% SC*	5%	n/a
19-23 December 2005	IDICE	14.9% PNP	18.7%	16.3%	6.8% SC*	15.0%	3.6%
9-12 January 2006	IDICE	22.9%	19.1%	17.8%	7.7%	11.3%	5.0%
11-13 January 2006	Apoyo	12%	15%	17%	2% 6% SC*	7%	1%
20-22 January 2006	UL	8.2%	20.2%	14.6%	2.8%	5.6%	2.5%
21-28 January 2006	IMA	4.4%	7.7%	7.8%	2.2%	2.7%	0.2%
8-10 February 2006	Apoyo	10% (15%)	13% (21%)	18% (27%)	4% (7%)	6% (10%)	2% (3%)
10-11 February 2006	Datum	8%	14%	16%	n/a	4%	1%
22-24 February 2006	Apoyo	9% (15%)	26% (16%)	14% (22%)	4% (6%)	6% (9%)	2% (4%)
24-26 February 2006	PUCP	6.0% (10.8%)	13.5% (21.1%)	16.7% (26.1%)	3.6% (5.7%)	4.2% (6.6%)	3.2% (5.0%)
24-26 February 2006	IDICE	12.6% [17 seats]	17.8% [34 seats]	15.4% [21 seats]	10.6% [16 seats]	7.8% [10 seats]	2.0% [1 seat]
24-26 February 2006	UL	6.5% (10.5%)	14.7% (23.5%)	14.8% (23.7%)	3.9% (6.3%)	6.9% (11.0%)	3.0% (4.9%)
23-27 February 2006	CPI	8.1% (13.6%)	13.6% (22.7%)	14.3% (23.5%)	3.1% (5.2%)	8.7% (14.6%)	1.9% (3.2%)
24 February-2 March 2006	IMA	8.5%	14.8%	13.7%	3.7%	4.5%	1.4%
8-10 March 2006	Apoyo	11% (17%)	15% (23%)	13% (20%)	6% (9%)	5% (8%)	2% (3%)
10-12 March 2006	Datum	13%	17%	18%	6%	6%	2%
11-13 March 2006	IDICE	14.2%	18.9%	15.9%	8.8%	8.1%	2.0%
15-17 March 2006	Apoyo	12% (16%)	16% (22%)	13% (18%)	8% (12%)	5% (7%)	3% (4%)
15-19 March 2006	CPI	9.2% (15.5%)	13.1% (21.4%)	11.8% (18.9%)	6.7% (10.5%)	6.0% (9.7%)	3.8% (5.8%)
18-19 March 2006	UNI	16.8%	17.2%	17.0%	6.1%	6.8%	n/a
22-24 March 2006	Apoyo	11% (16%)	14% (21%)	11% (16%)	8% (11%)	5% (7%)	4% (6%)
23-25 March 2006	Conecta	15.8% (20.9%)	17.2% (22.7%)	17.4% (23.0%)	5.2% (6.9%)	4.8% (6.3%)	2.5% (3.3%)
24-26 March 2006	PUCP	14.1%	15.1%	16.1%	9.4%	4.5%	2.6%
24-26 March 2006	UL	10.7% (14.2%)	15.8% (21.0%)	14.2% (18.8%)	8.5% (11.3%)	6.5% (8.6%)	4.1% (5.5%)
27-31 March 2006	Apoyo	11% (16%) [31 seats]	14% (19%) [36 seats]	12% (16%) [25 seats]	11% (15%) [15 seats]	6% (9%) [8 seats]	4% (6%) [5 seats]
5 April 2006	Datum	[36 seats]	[36 seats]	[23 seats]	[17 seats]	[8 seats]	[0 seats]
5 April 2006	UL	11.6% (14.6%)	15.4% (19.4%)	13.5% (17.0%)	11.8% (14.8%)	5.8% (7.4%)	3.8% (4.9%)
8 April 2006	Apoyo	[29 seats]	[38 seats]	[24 seats]	[14 seats]	[9 seats]	[3 seats]