Post-election pendulum for the Victorian state election, 1996

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the Victorian state election, 1996.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of over 20 per cent to change, "safe" seats require a swing of 10 to 20 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

LIBERAL/ NATIONAL SEATS
Marginal
Ballarat East Barry Traynor LIB 0.0%
Oakleigh Denise McGill LIB 0.8%
Carrum David Lean LIB 0.8%
Ballarat West Paul Jenkins LIB 1.4%
Narracan Florian Andrighetto LIB 1.6%
Tullamarine Bernie Finn LIB 3.0%
Frankston East Peter McLellan[4] LIB 3.1%
Geelong Ann Henderson LIB 3.5%
Seymour Marie Tehan LIB 4.2%
Ripon Steve Elder LIB 4.6%
Prahran Leonie Burke LIB 4.6%
Mordialloc Geoff Leigh LIB 4.7%
Bentleigh Inga Peulich LIB 4.7%
Bendigo East Michael John LIB 5.0%
Monbulk Steve McArthur LIB 5.2%
Mitcham Roger Pescott[2] LIB 5.3%
Berwick Robert Dean LIB 5.3%
Bellarine Garry Spry LIB 5.5%
Fairly safe
Eltham Wayne Philips LIB 6.8%
Bayswater Gordon Ashley LIB 7.5%
Gisborne Tom Reynolds LIB 7.8%
Knox Hurtle Lupton LIB 7.9%
Polwarth Ian Smith LIB 8.1%
Dromana Martin Dixon LIB 8.1%
Burwood Jeff Kennett LIB 8.6%
Cranbourne Gary Rowe LIB 9.1%
Bennettswood Geoff Coleman LIB 9.2%
Caulfield Helen Shardey LIB 9.3%
Safe
South Barwon Alister Paterson LIB 10.2%
Box Hill Robert Clark LIB 10.3%
Portland Denis Napthine LIB 10.4%
Forest Hill John Richardson LIB 10.5%
Pakenham Rob Maclellan LIB 11.1%
Mornington Robin Cooper LIB 11.3%
Mooroolbark Lorraine Elliott LIB 12.2%
Gippsland West Alan Brown[1] LIB 12.6%
Evelyn Jim Plowman LIB 12.7%
Wantirna Kim Wells LIB 13.1%
Hawthorn Phil Gude LIB 13.6%
Warrnambool John McGrath NAT 13.8%
Warrandyte Phil Honeywood LIB 13.9%
Sandringham Murray Thompson LIB 14.3%
Bulleen David Perrin LIB 14.6%
Benambra Tony Plowman LIB 14.9%
Kew Jan Wade LIB 15.0%
Doncaster Victor Perton LIB 15.0%
Gippsland East David Treasure NAT 15.2%
Benalla Pat McNamara NAT 15.3%
Frankston Andrea McCall LIB 15.4%
Glen Waverley Ross Smith LIB 15.7%
Malvern Robert Doyle LIB 17.6%
Brighton Alan Stockdale LIB 18.1%
Swan Hill Barry Steggall NAT 19.0%
Gippsland South Peter Ryan NAT 19.4%
Shepparton Don Kilgour NAT 19.6%
Very safe
Wimmera Bill McGrath NAT 21.2%
Murray Valley Ken Jasper NAT 22.4%
Rodney Noel Maughan NAT 26.1%
LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Werribee Mary Douglas ALP 0.8%
Ivanhoe Craig Langdon ALP 1.6%
Yan Yean Andre Haermeyer ALP 1.6%
Bendigo West Bob Cameron ALP 1.7%
Dandenong North Jan Wilson ALP 2.2%
Bundoora Sherryl Garbutt ALP 2.6%
Morwell Keith Hamilton ALP 2.7%
Dandenong John Pandazopoulos ALP 3.3%
Essendon Judy Maddigan ALP 3.4%
Niddrie Rob Hulls ALP 4.4%
Fairly safe
Springvale Eddie Micallef ALP 7.9%
Geelong North Peter Loney ALP 8.1%
Altona Lynne Kosky ALP 8.2%
Albert Park John Thwaites ALP 8.8%
Clayton Hong Lim ALP 9.6%
Safe
Mitcham Tony Robinson[2] ALP 10.5%
Pascoe Vale Christine Campbell ALP 11.1%
Keilor George Seitz ALP 11.6%
Melton David Cunningham ALP 12.2%
Mill Park Alex Andrianopoulos ALP 13.9%
Northcote Mary Delahunty[3] ALP 15.0%
Preston Michael Leighton ALP 15.3%
Williamstown Steve Bracks ALP 15.6%
Melbourne Neil Cole ALP 15.9%
Coburg Carlo Carli ALP 16.9%
Richmond Demetri Dollis ALP 17.3%
Sunshine Ian Baker ALP 19.1%
Footscray Bruce Mildenhall ALP 19.4%
Northcote Tony Sheehan[3] ALP 19.9%
Very safe
Thomastown Peter Batchelor ALP 22.0%
Broadmeadows John Brumby ALP 25.1%
INDEPENDENT & OTHER SEATS
Gippsland West Susan Davies[1] IND v LIB 0.3%
Mildura Russell Savage IND v LIB 20.9%

Notes

1 In December 1996, the Liberal member for Gippsland West, Alan Brown, resigned. Independent candidate Susan Davies won the resulting by-election on 1 February 1997.
2 On 11 November 1997, the Liberal member for Mitcham, Roger Pescott, resigned. Labor candidate Tony Robinson won the resulting by-election on 13 December 1997.
3 On 3 July 1998, the Labor member for Northcote, Tony Sheehan, resigned. Labor candidate Mary Delahunty won the resulting state by-election on 15 August 1998.
4 The member for Frankston East, Peter McLellan, was elected as a member of the Liberal Party, but resigned on 24 July 1998 and subsequently served out the remainder of his term as an independent.

References

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