Pre-election pendulum for the New South Wales state election, 2015

The Mackerras Pendulum for the 2015 New South Wales state election

[1]

Legislative Assembly

Pendulum

LIBERAL/ NATIONAL SEATS
Marginal
East Hills Glenn Brookes LIB 0.2 points
Swansea Garry Edwards LIB 0.3 points
Prospect Andrew Rohan LIB 1.1 points
Macquarie Fields Andrew McDonald (ALP)8 LIB 1.8 points
Monaro John Barilaro NAT 2.0 points
Rockdale John Flowers LIB 3.6 points
Granville Tony Issa LIB 3.8 points
Oatley Mark Coure LIB 3.8 points
Wyong Darren Webber6 LIB 4.6 points
Maitland Robyn Parker LIB 4.9 points
Londonderry Bart Bassett LIB 5.3 points
Blue Mountains Roza Sage LIB 5.4 points
Fairly safe
Strathfield Charles Casuscelli LIB 6.4 points
Campbelltown Bryan Doyle LIB 6.8 points
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT v IND 6.8 points
Coogee Bruce Notley-Smith LIB 8.3 points
Kiama Gareth Ward LIB 8.6 points
Seven Hills Nathan Rees (ALP)8 LIB 8.8 points
Safe
Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons LIB 10.7 points
The Entrance Chris Spence6 LIB 11.5 points
Gosford Chris Holstein LIB 11.9 points
Mulgoa Tanya Davies LIB 12.4 points
Parramatta Geoff Lee LIB 12.5 points
Port Stephens Craig Baumann LIB 14.7 points
Clarence Chris Gulaptis1 NAT 15.1 points
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB 16.1 points
Drummoyne John Sidoti LIB 17.1 points
Ballina Don Page NAT v GRN 17.8 points
Upper Hunter George Souris NAT v IND 18.3 points
Bega Andrew Constance LIB 18.5 points
Heathcote Lee Evans LIB 19.0 points
Very safe
Riverstone Kevin Conolly LIB 20.2 points
Lismore Thomas George NAT v GRN 20.2 points
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB 20.4 points
Wollondilly Jai Rowell LIB 21.6 points
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT 21.7 points
Orange Andrew Gee NAT v IND 21.9 points
Camden Chris Patterson LIB 22.8 points
North Shore Jillian Skinner LIB v GRN 23.2 points
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT 23.7 points
Terrigal Chris Hartcher6 LIB 24.2 points
Myall Lakes Stephen Bromhead NAT v IND 24.9 points
Epping Greg Smith LIB 25.2 points
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB 25.6 points
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB v GRN 25.7 points
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB 25.7 points
Vaucluse Gabrielle Upton LIB v GRN 26.1 points
Baulkham Hills David Elliott LIB 26.4 points
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB 26.5 points
Goulburn Pru Goward LIB 26.6 points
Albury Greg Aplin LIB 26.9 points
Manly Mike Baird LIB v GRN 27.0 points
Coffs Harbour Andrew Fraser NAT 27.2 points
Murray-Darling John Williams NAT 27.2 points
Wagga Wagga Daryl Maguire LIB 27.8 points
Pittwater Rob Stokes LIB v GRN 28.0 points
Willoughby Gladys Berejiklian LIB v GRN 28.1 points
Wakehurst Brad Hazzard LIB v GRN 28.5 points
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams NAT 28.8 points
Oxley Andrew Stoner NAT v GRN 28.8 points
Cootamundra Katrina Hodgkinson[2] NAT 30.3 points
Castle Hill Dominic Perrottet LIB 30.8 points
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall4 NAT 31.0 points
Dubbo Troy Grant NAT 31.3 points
Ku-ring-gai Barry O'Farrell LIB v GRN 31.3 points
Barwon Kevin Humphries NAT 32.0 points
Davidson Jonathan O'Dea LIB v GRN 33.4 points
Hawkesbury Ray Williams LIB 34.7 points
LABOR SEATS
Marginal
Marrickville Carmel Tebbutt ALP v GRN 0.9 points
Wollongong Noreen Hay ALP v IND 1.0 points
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP 1.6 points
Fairfield Guy Zangari ALP 1.7 points
Kogarah Cherie Burton ALP 1.9 points
Cabramatta Nick Lalich ALP 2.1 points
Blacktown John Robertson ALP 3.7 points
Keira Ryan Park ALP 3.9 points
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP 4.4 points
Miranda Barry Collier5 ALP 5.2 points
Fairly safe
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP 6.6 points
Mount Druitt Richard Amery ALP 6.7 points
Lakemba Robert Furolo ALP 7.0 points
Canterbury Linda Burney ALP 8.3 points
Auburn Barbara Perry ALP 8.5 points
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP 8.6 points
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP 8.7 points
Safe
Bankstown Tania Mihailuk ALP 10.3 points
Liverpool Paul Lynch ALP 14.7 points
Heffron Ron Hoenig2 ALP v GRN 20.0 points
Charlestown Jodie Harrison7 ALP v GRN 20.6 points
Safe
INDEPENDENT & OTHER SEATS
Balmain Jamie Parker GRN v LIB 3.5 points
Newtown Newly created electorate GRN v ALP 4.4 points
Sydney Alex Greenwich3 IND v LIB 13.7 points
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND v LIB 14.9 points
  1. ^ Member for Clarence, Steve Cansdell, resigned on 16 September 2011. He was succeeded by Chris Gulaptis at the Clarence state by-election, 2011.
  2. ^ Member for Heffron, Kristina Keneally, resigned on 29 June 2012. She was succeeded by Ron Hoenig at the Heffron state by-election, 2012.
  3. ^ Member for Sydney, Clover Moore, was forced to resign on 20 September 2012. She was succeeded by Alex Greenwich at the Sydney state by-election, 2012.
  4. ^ Member for Northern Tablelands, Richard Torbay, resigned on 20 March 2013. He was succeeded by Adam Marshall at the Northern Tablelands state by-election, 2013.
  5. ^ Member for Miranda, Graham Annesley, resigned on 28 August 2013. He was succeeded by Barry Collier at the Miranda state by-election, 2013.
  6. ^ Member for Wyong, Darren Webber, Member for The Entrance, Chris Spence and Member for Terrigal, Chris Hartcher were suspended for the Liberal Party due to investigations undertaken by the ICAC
  7. ^ Member for Charlestown, Andrew Cornwell, resigned with immediate effect in August 2014. He was succeeded by Jodie Harrison at the Charlestown state by-election, 2014.
  8. ^ As a result of a redistribution, the ALP-held seat of Macquarie Fields becomes notionally Liberal. ALP-held Toongabbie is replaced by the notionally Liberal electorate of Seven Hills.[3]

Legislative Council

Current balance

Party Seats held Current 42-seat Council
2011 Now
Australian Labor Party 14 14                                          
Liberal Party of Australia 12 10                                          
National Party of Australia 7 7                                          
The Greens 5 5                                          
Shooters and Fishers Party 2 2                                          
Christian Democratic Party 2 2                                          
Independents 0 2[4]                                          

References

  1. ↑ http://www.abc.net.au/news/nsw-election-2015/guide/pendulum/
  2. ↑ http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2013/redistribution.htm
  3. ↑ http://www.abc.net.au/elections/nsw/2013/redistribution.htm
  4. ↑ http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/nsw-police-minister-mike-gallacher-resigns-over-alleged-donation-scam-raised-at-icac-hearing/story-e6frg6nf-1226903206764
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