Taiwan general election, 2016

Taiwan presidential election, 2016

16 January 2016

Turnout 66.27%   Nominee Tsai Ing-wen Eric Chu James Soong Party Democratic Progressive Kuomintang People First Alliance Pan-Green Coalition Pan-Blue Coalition None Running mate Chen Chien-jen (Independent) Wang Ju-hsuan (Independent) Hsu Hsin-ying (Minkuotang) Popular vote 6,894,744 3,813,365 1,576,861 Percentage 56.1% 31.0% 12.8%

Leaders in third-level divisions:   Tsai-Chen Ticket   Chu-Wang Ticket   Soong-Hsu Ticket

President before election Ma Ying-jeou Kuomintang Elected President Tsai Ing-wen Democratic Progressive

General elections were held in Taiwan (officially the Republic of China) on Saturday, 16 January 2016 to elect the 14th President and Vice President of the Republic of China, and all 113 members of the 9th Legislative Yuan.^[1] Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected President with 56% of the vote.

Tsai's party, the Democratic Progressive Party, also secured a majority in the legislature, marking the first time that the DPP can govern alone with over a majority. This was unlike the election of 2000, where the DPP won the presidency but did not receive over 50% of the votes. The election marked the first time the Kuomintang lost its majority in the legislature.

The Central Election Commission reported that turnout for the presidential election was 66.27% of voters, the lowest turnout since the office was first directly elected in 1996.^[2]

Electoral system

Presidential candidates and vice-presidential running mates are elected on the same ticket, using first-past-the-post. Due to constitutional two-term limits, incumbent president Ma Ying-jeou was ineligible to seek re-election. This was the sixth direct election of the president and vice president by the citizens of Taiwan, which was previously indirectly elected by the National Assembly prior to 1996.

The 113 members of the Legislative Yuan are elected by a supplementary member system, with 73 from geographical constituencies (General) via first-past-the-post, 6 from two 3-member aboriginal constituencies via single non-transferable vote, and 34 from closed list proportional representation (PR) via a national party vote.

All three presidential candidates announced their running mates in November 2015, and for the first time in Taiwanese electoral history, none of the vice presidential candidates shared the same party affiliation as their corresponding presidential candidates.^[3] A record-breaking 556 candidates ran for legislative seats.^[4][5]

Presidential candidates

Party primaries

According to article 22 of the President and Vice President Election and Recall Act, any political party that garnered 5% of the national vote in the preceding presidential or legislative election, may directly nominate presidential and vice presidential candidates. Parties fulfilling this criteria in this election include the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), People First Party (PFP) and Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU).^[6]

Democratic Progressive Party

According to internal party protocols, presidential primaries are conducted via nationwide opinion polling.^[7] Registration was held between 2 and 16 February 2015. Tsai Ing-wen, party chair and former vice-premier, was the only candidate that registered, and thus nationwide opinion polling that were planned to be conducted between 16 and 18 March 2015 were suspended. Tsai was duly nominated by the DPP on 15 April 2015.^[8] On 16 November 2015, Tsai Ing-wen announced former health minister Chen Chien-jen as her running mate, who consequently resigned from his post as deputy director of Academia Sinica.

Kuomintang

According to internal party protocols, presidential primaries are conducted via a combination of party member vote with 30% weighting, and nationwide opinion polling with 70% weighting.^[9] Registration and petitions were conducted between 20 April to 18 May 2015. Two candidates, including Hung Hsiu-chu, deputy speaker of the Legislative Yuan;^[10][11][12] and Yang Chih-liang, former health minister, registered.^[13][14] Hung garnered 35,210 signatories in her petition, crossing the eligibility threshold of 15,000 signatories; while Yang garnered only 5,234 signatories, nullifying his candidacy.^[15] The party member vote was suspended because Hung was the only eligible candidate. Nationwide opinion polling were conducted from 12 to 13 June 2015; with equal weighting between approval rating and general election polling. Hung garnered an average of 46.204% in the nationwide polling, crossing the eligibility threshold of 30%, and was nominated on 19 July 2015.^[16][17]

However, her nomination was revoked by party chair Eric Chu during an extraordinary party convention on 17 October 2015.^[18] Chu subsequently replaced Hung as the presidential candidate of the KMT, and announced former labor minister Wang Ju-hsuan as his running mate. Some have alleged that this process was undemocratic.

People First Party

James Soong, party chair of the PFP, announced his presidential bid on 6 August 2015.^[19] He announced Minkuotang (MKT) chair and legislator Hsu Hsin-ying as his running mate in November 2015.^[20] The PFP–MKT coalition became the first pair of candidates to register for the election on 23 November 2015.^[21]

Taiwan Solidarity Union

Although the Taiwan Solidarity Union was eligible to nominate a presidential candidate, party chair Huang Kun-huei publicly announced on 29 June 2015 that the TSU would not do so, in favor of supporting Tsai Ing-wen's presidential bid.^[22][23]

Presidential candidate petition

According to article 22 of the President and Vice President Election and Recall Act, presidential and vice presidential candidates not nominated by an eligible political party, may qualify via a petition signed by at least 1.5% of the number of eligible voters during the preceding legislative election: a threshold of 269,709 eligible voters.^[6]

• Nori Shih, former legislator and chair of the Democratic Progressive Party, declared his candidature on 21 May 2015.^[24] However, due to the failure to collect sufficient signatories on his petition, he withdrew his candidacy on 16 September 2015.^[25]
• Hsu Jung-shu, chair of the People Party, and former legislator of the Democratic Progressive Party, declared her candidature on 7 July 2015, and received support from the Taiwan Progressive Party, National Health Service Aliance, and Zhongshan Party.^[26] However, despite initially registering at the central election commission, Hsu and her running mate, Hsia Han-ren did not submit their petition, thus nullifying their candidacy.^[27]
• Chang Dong-shan, chair of the Grand Union of National Happiness, and running mate, Lin Li-rong, chair of the Positive Party, initially registered at the central election commission, but collected only 72 signatures thus nullifying their candidacy.^[27]
• Independent candidates Lan Hsin-kei and Chu Hsu-fang, also registered at the central election commission, but did not submit their petition.^[27]
• Music professor Lin You-hsiang and running mate, Hung Mei-chen were endorsed by the Union of Taiwanese Party Chairs, and initially registered at the central election commission, but also failed to submit their petition.^[27]

Legislative candidates

Republic of China legislative election, 2016

16 January 2016

All 113 seats to the Legislative Yuan 57 seats needed for a majority   Majority party Minority party Third party   Leader Tsai Ing-wen Eric Chu Huang Kuo-chang Party Democratic Progressive Kuomintang New Power Alliance Pan-Green Pan-Blue Third Force Leader since 28 May 2014 19 January 2015 13 September 2015 Last election 40 District: 44.45% PR: 34.62% 64 District: 48.12% PR: 44.55% New party District: N/A PR: N/A Seats before 40 64 N/A Seats won 68 35 5 Seat change 28 29 5 Percentage District: 45.08% PR: 44.04% District: 38.71% PR: 26.90% District: 2.94% PR: 6.10%   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader James Soong Lin Pin-kuan Party People First Non-Partisan Solidarity Union Alliance None People First Leader since 31 March 2000 15 June 2007 Last election 3 District: 1.12% PR: 5.49% 2 District: 1.08% PR: N/A Seats before 3 1 Seats won 3 1 Seat change 0 1 Percentage District: 1.26% PR: 6.52% District: N/A PR: 0.64%

Results (constituency seats only):   DPP   KMT   NPP   Independent

President of the Legislative Yuan before election Wang Jin-pyng Kuomintang Elected President of the Legislative Yuan Su Jia-chyuan Democratic Progressive

The two major parties, the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party, used different strategies when nominating candidates for the Legislative Yuan elections. The Kuomintang nominated a candidate in all but one of the constituency seats.^[28] The sole exception was Taipei 2, where they instead supported the New Party candidate. The DPP, on the other hand, developed a cooperation strategy with several minor parties. The DPP agreed to support candidates from these parties in exchange for agreements not to stand in tight races where they might sap DPP votes. These included the New Power Party, the Taiwan Solidarity Union, and the Green-Social Democratic Coalition, as well as several independents.^[29] This strategy did not work in Hsinchu, where the NPP and DPP backed separate candidates.^[30] A total of 43 female candidates won election to the Legislative Yuan, the most ever to take office.^[31]

2016 Republic of China legislative election candidates
Party	General electorates	Aboriginal electorates	Party list	Total
Kuomintang	72	5	33	110
Democratic Progressive Party	60	2	34	96
Taiwan Solidarity Union	2	－	15	17
People First Party	6	1	16	23
Non-Partisan Solidarity Union	－	1	7	8
Minkuotang	13	1	10	24
New Power Party	12	－	6	18
Green-Social Democratic Coalition[32]	11	－	6	17
Chinese Unionist Party[33]	14	－	10	24
Constitutional Conventions of Taiwan	12	－	6	18
MCFAP	11	1	5	17
Free Taiwan Party[34]	11	－	6	17
Faith And Hope League	8	2	6	16
Trees Party	11	－	2	13
National Health Service Alliance	9	1	3	13
Peace Pigeon Union Party	10		3	13
New Party	2	－	10	12
Taiwan Independence Party	9	1	1	11
Taiwan Labor Party	5	－	－	5
People's Democratic Front	2	－	－	2
Social Welfare Party	2	－	－	2
Pan-Pacific E.P. Union Party	2	－	－	2
The Motorists' Party of ROC	1	－	－	1
Taiwan Win Party	1	－	－	1
Labor Party	1	－	－	1
Zheng Party	1	－	－	1
Taiwan First Nations Party	1	－	－	1
China Production Party	1	－	－	1
Independents	66	6	－	72
Total	354	23	179	556

Opinion polls

Presidential election

Nationwide polling for the Taiwan presidential election of 2016.

Nationwide
Polling organisation	Date(s) administered	Eric Chu KMT	Tsai Ing-wen DPP	James Soong PFP	Undecided
Decision Making Research	24 Aug 2015	25.5%	41.2%	15.0%	18.3%
Kuomintang	14 Sep 2015	33%	43%	13%	11%
Apple Daily	6 Oct 2015	29.28%	40.92%	15.07%	14.73%
Television Broadcasts Satellite	7 Oct 2015	29%	48%	10%	13%
Decision Making Research	7 Oct 2015	19.0%	42.1%	14.1%	24.8%
Taiwan Indicators Survey Research	13 Oct 2015	21.0%	44.6%	12.0%	22.4%
Apple Daily	16 Oct 2015	26.23%	45.47%	12.63%	15.67%
Fades Survey Research	16 Oct 2015	17.17%	40.18%	22.39%	17.72%
Liberty Times	17 Oct 2015	18.91%	47.04%	7.86%	26.19%
Decision Making Research	17 Oct 2015	21.9%	45.2%	13.8%	19.1%
Trend Survey Research	17 Oct 2015	20.7%	41.6%	10.1%	27.6%
TVBS	19 Oct 2015	29%	46%	10%	15%
China Times	22 Oct 2015	21.8%	38.9%	8.8%	30.5%
People First Party	24 Oct 2015	17%	40%	23%	20%
Taiwan Indicators Survey Research	12 Nov 2015	20.4%	46.2%	10.4%	13%
Shih Hsin University Research	27 Nov 2015	18.4%	44.5%	6.8%	30.3%
SET News	6 Dec 2015	15.7%	44.9%	13.7%	25.7%
TVBS	13 Dec 2015	22%	45%	10%	23%
New Taipei City
Television Broadcasts Satellite	15 Oct 2015	31%	47%	14%	7%
New Taipei City 6th Constituency
Next Television	21 Oct 2015	20.9%	49.8%	8.1%	21.2%
Hsinchu City
Focus Survey Research	20 Oct 2015	21.0%	46.7%	12.9%	19.4%
Taichung City
Kuomintang	15 Oct 2015	12.8%	41.4%	8.4%	37.4%

Legislative election

Nationwide polling for the Taiwan legislator-at-large election (party vote) of 2016.

Single and multi member districts

Source	Date	KMT	DPP	TSU	PFP	MKT	NPP	GP–SD	NP	FTP	IND	Other	Undecided
Trend	February 9, 2015	18.5%	31.2%	－	－	－	－	－	－	－	14.5%	1.4%	34.4%
Trend	May 19, 2015	19.1%	25.2%	2.6%	3.8%	0.4%	3.3%	2.1% SD:0.3%	0.9%	－	13.4%	3.6%	25.2%
Trend^1	July 12, 2015	15.5%	30.7%	1.2%	3.4%	－	－	－	0.7%	－	14.0%	－	29.6%
Trend^2	July 16, 2015	20.3%	27.8%	0.6%	4.3%	－	－	－	0.8%	－	12.9%	1.2%	26.9%
Trend^3	August 6, 2015	19.9%	25.9%	0.9%	4.9%	－	－	－	1.2%	－	2.2%	－	36.7%
Taiwan index	September 12, 2015	21.4%	30.9%	0.1%	2.5%	－	0.7%	0.4%	0.0%	－	－	1.5%	42.3%
Apple Daily	September 14, 2015	30.29%	38.17%	2.11%	8.12%	1.33%	4.53%	－	－	－	－	15.45%
Trend	September 14, 2015	15.9%	31.2%	0.4%	2.1%	0.8%	5.9%	1.4%	－	0.5%	11.4%	2.5%	27.9%
Trend	September 17, 2015	18.3%	29.9%	1.2%	2.4%	0.5%	5.9%	1.5%	0.1%	0.3%	3.7%	1.1%	35.2%
Trend	September 24, 2015	18.3%	32.6%	1.6%	5.2%	0.5%	5.6%	2.0%	0.6%	－	0.4%	2.7%	30.5%
Daily	October 16, 2015	31.28%	38.11%	1.93%	4.75%	1.33%	5.94%	1.04%	1.49%	－	－	－	13.68%
TVBS	October 19, 2015	30%	30%	－	1%	－	1%	－	－	－	2%	1%	35%
Trend	October 24, 2015	19.0%	35.0%	1.0%	2.4%	0.8%	4.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.1%	2.0%	0.3%	34.4%
Notice： Third party (politics)：^14.5%、^2%5.2%、^38.1%。

Proportional representation

Opinion Poll
Source	Date	Kuomintang	Democratic Progressive Party	Taiwan Solidarity Union	People First Party (Republic of China)	Minkuotang	New Power Party	Green–Social Democratic coalition	Free Taiwan Party	Other	Undecided
Trend	March 14, 2015	19.9%	25.7%	4.0%	7.0%	－	－	－	－	－	43.4%
Trend^1	May 19, 2015	26.7%	33.4%	4.4%	6.6%	0.4%	3.6%	Green: 3.3% SD: 0.9%	－	4.6%	14.6%
TVBS^2	June 1, 2015	24%	29%	3%	4%	0.8%	0.4%	Green: 1% SD: 0.1%	－	2%	34%
New Realm^3	July 9, 2015	18.67%	31.67%	1.61%	5.14%	－	3.86%	Green: 0.80% SD: 0.32%	－	1.08%	35.08%
Trend^4	July 12, 2015	20.5%	38.2%	3.7%	8.3%	－	－	－	－	－	20.1%
Tremd^5	July 16, 2015	24.6%	35.6%	4.1%	9.2%	－	－	－	－	0.4%	16.5%
Decision^6	August 9, 2015	24.3%	30.3%	1.8%	6.6%	－	5.6%	2.6%	－	－	27.4%
Freedom Journal	August 26, 2015	17.38%	36.71%	1.39%	4.93%	0.28%	1.3%	0.46%	－	2.42%	35.13%
Taiwan index^7	September 12, 2015	22.1%	35.1%	1.9%	7.2%	0.0%	0.3%	Green: 1.3% SD: 0.1%	－	2.1%	29.9%
Trend	September 14, 2015	21.5%	37.6%	4.1%	5.6%	0.8%	6.8%	1.8%	0.5%	0.9%	20.4%
Trend	September 17, 2015	22.7%	34.2%	3.7%	4.3%	0.7%	5.6%	2.3%	1.6%	0.5%	24.4%
Freedom journal	September 23, 2015	17.81%	34.26%	1.54%	3.56%	－	1.83%	0.19%	－	40.82%
Trend	September 23, 2015	19.7%	34.7%	3.4%	6.9%	0.5%	7.0%	1.7%	－	2.4%	23.7%
Freedom Journal	October 16, 2015	19.01%	33.17%	1.65%	3.2%	0.39%	1.75%	0.10%	－	－	40.71%
TVBS	October 18, 2015	33%	28%	3%	3%	2%	5%	2%	－	2%	22%
Trend^8	October 24, 2015	21.3%	37.5%	3.0%	7.2%	0.6%	4.7%	2.4%	0.5%	0.3%	22.3%
Shih Hsin University^9	October 31, 2015	23.3%	34%	2.3%	4.1%	0.5%	3.1%	－	－	－	30.2%
TVBS	December 13, 2015	23%	27%	2%	5%	2%	6%	3%	－	3%	25%
Notice:： New Party (Taiwan)：^11.5%、^20.8%、^31.29%、^40.9%、^52.1%、^61.4%、^70.1%、^80.2%、^90.7% New Party decided to fully support Kuomintang and withdrew all their candidates on proportional representation,[35] but eventually still announced their own proportional candidates in November.[36] Home Party：^20.5% Non-Partisan Solidarity Union：^91.8% Third party (politics)：^48.3%、^57.5%。

Results

President

Summary of the 16 January 2016 Republic of China presidential election results

Party		Candidate		Votes	Percentage
		President	Vice president
	Democratic Progressive Party	Tsai Ing-wen	Chen Chien-jen	6,894,744	56.12%
	Kuomintang	Eric Chu	Wang Ju-hsuan	3,813,365	31.04%
	People First Party	James Soong	Hsu Hsin-ying	1,576,861	12.84%
Total				12,284,970	100%

County Level Breakdown

2016 Presidential Election Breakdown
County/ City	Registered Voters	Eric Chu (KMT)		Tsai Ing-wen (DPP)		James Soong (PFP)		Invalid Votes	Turnout	Margin of Top 2 Candidates
		Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage	Votes	Percentage
Taipei	2,175,986	546,491	37.4905%	757,383	51.9582%	153,804	10.5513%	22540	68.03%	210,892
New Taipei	3,204,367	709,374	33.3392%	1,165,888	54.7945%	252,486	11.8663%	26481	67.23%	456,514
Keelung	306,548	68,357	35.2876%	93,402	48.2164%	31,955	16.4960%	2432	63.99%	25,045
Yilan County	369,211	59,216	25.3817%	144,798	62.0646%	29,288	12.5537%	3188	64.05%	85,582
Taoyuan	1,627,598	369,013	34.3874%	547,573	51.0270%	156,518	14.5855%	11898	66.66%	178,560
Hsinchu County	412,731	94,603	35.2817%	114,023	42.5243%	59,510	22.1940%	3803	65.89%	19,420
Hsinchu	328,580	71,771	32.4235%	113,386	51.2236%	36,198	16.3529%	3138	68.32%	41,615
Miaoli County	448,520	107,779	37.5500%	130,461	45.4524%	48,788	16.9976%	3652	64.81%	22,682
Taichung	2,138,519	430,005	29.8181%	793,281	55.0089%	218,810	15.1731%	19800	68.36%	363,276
Changhua County	1,022,962	193,117	28.7951%	378,736	56.4721%	98,807	14.7328%	10921	66.63%	185,619
Nantou County	415,122	83,604	32.0843%	136,104	52.2320%	40,868	15.6837%	3649	63.65%	52,500
Yunlin County	566,207	86,047	24.9321%	218,842	63.4095%	40,236	11.6584%	4997	61.84%	132,795
Chiayi County	430,885	65,425	23.3822%	182,913	65.3711%	31,469	11.2467%	4295	65.93%	117,488
Chiayi	210,758	38,822	27.9514%	83,143	59.8621%	16,926	12.1865%	1492	66.61%	44,321
Tainan	1,528,246	219,196	22.0689%	670,608	67.5175%	103,432	10.4136%	12457	65.81%	451,412
Kaohsiung	2,254,324	391,823	26.0044%	955,168	63.3923%	159,765	10.6032%	18117	67.64%	563,345
Pingtung County	689,170	121,291	26.9922%	285,297	63.4902%	42,768	9.5176%	5595	66.01%	164,006
Taitung County	179,547	43,581	44.6239%	37,517	38.4148%	16,565	16.9614%	1208	55.07%	6,064
Hualien County	267,862	73,894	47.7219%	57,198	36.9394%	23,751	15.3388%	2342	58.68%	16,696
Penghu County	84,222	12,564	29.4770%	21,658	50.8129%	8,401	19.7100%	643	51.37%	9,094
Kinmen County	111,386	24,327	66.0970%	6,626	18.0030%	5,852	15.9000%	599	33.58%	17,701
Lienchiang County	10,240	3,065	68.5989%	739	16.5398%	664	14.8612%	85	44.46%	2,326
Source： Central Election Commission of Taiwan

Legislative Yuan

↓
68	1	5	3	1	35
Democratic Progressive Party	I	NPP	PFP	N	Kuomintang

Seat composition of the 9th Legislative Yuan

  Democratic Progressive Party

  New Power Party

  Kuomintang

  People First Party

  Non-Partisan Solidarity Union

  Independents

  Vacant

Party	Constituency			Proportional			Total seats	+/–
	Votes	%	Seats	Votes	%	Seats
Democratic Progressive Party	5,416,659	44.59	50	5,370,953	44.06	18	68	28
Kuomintang	4,724,366	38.89	24	3,280,949	26.91	11	35	29
People First Party	156,212	1.29	0	794,838	6.52	3	3
New Power Party	351,244	2.89	3	744,315	6.11	2	5	5
New Party	75,372	0.62	0	510,074	4.18	0	0
Green–Social Democratic Coalition	203,658	1.68	0	308,106	2.53	0	0
Taiwan Solidarity Union	97,765	0.80	0	305,675	2.51	0	0	3
Faith and Hope League	71,101	0.59	0	206,629	1.70	0	0
Minkuotang	196,180	1.61	0	197,627	1.62	0	0	1
MCFAP	17,070	0.14	0	87,213	0.72	0	0
Non-Partisan Solidarity Union	27,690	0.23	1	77,672	0.64	0	1	1
Trees Party	30,224	0.25	0	77,174	0.63	0	0
Chinese Unionist Party	18,812	0.15	0	56,347	0.46	0	0
National Health Service Alliance	12,036	0.10	0	51,024	0.42	0	0
Free Taiwan Party	18,495	0.15	0	47,988	0.39	0	0
Peace Dove Alliance Party	10,318	0.08	0	30,617	0.25	0	0
Taiwan Independence Party	7,809	0.06	0	27,496	0.23	0	0
Constitutional Conventions of Taiwan	13,518	0.11	0	15,442	0.13	0	0
Others	31,693	0.26	0		–	–	0
Independent	668,441	5.50	1		–	–	1	1
Invalid/blank votes		–	–		–	–	–	–
Total			79		100	34	113	0
Registered voters/turnout			–			–	–	–
Source: CEC

Chou Tzu-yu flag incident

Chou Tzu-yu, a 16-year-old Taiwanese singer and a member of the South Korean K-pop girl group Twice, attracted attention with her appearance in a South Korean variety show called My Little Television, in which she introduced herself and waved the flag of the Republic of China alongside that of South Korea. Japan's flag was also shown as the other members of the group represented their nationality throughout the show. However, soon after the episode was broadcast it sparked controversy in China when Taiwanese-born China-based singer Huang An accused Chou of being a "pro-Taiwanese independence activist".^[37] After the uproar over the issue, the group's record label, JYP Entertainment cancelled all activities of the group in China and released a video where Chou is shown reading an apology, all this the day before the election.^[38] She mentioned in part:

"There is only one China. The two shores are one. I feel proud being a Chinese. I, as a Chinese, have hurt the company and netizens’ emotions due to my words and actions during overseas promotions. I feel very, very sorry and guilty."^[39]

Nevertheless, many Taiwanese saw her apology as "humiliating and a sign of Taiwan's predicament that Chou had to apologize for expressing her Taiwanese identity and for showing her nation's flag." Tsai in her victory speech also mentioned how it had "angered many Taiwanese people, regardless of their political affiliation." And although it was believed by many that this incident affected the election, contributing to one or two percentage points of Tsai's winning margin,^[40] it was thought that the issue probably had a very minor impact on the final outcome since most believed that people would have voted for Tsai anyway. However it is believed that the incident might potentially contribute to Taiwan's desire to become an independent state.^[39][41]

See also

• Elections in the Republic of China
• Kuomintang chairmanship election, 2016

References

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