Clacton by-election, 2014

Clacton by-election, 2014

9 October 2014

Candidate Douglas Carswell Giles Watling Tim Young Party UKIP Conservative Labour Popular vote 21,113 8,709 3,957 Percentage 59.7 24.6 11.2

Map showing the Clacton Parliamentary constituency within the English county of Essex.

MP before election Douglas Carswell Conservative Subsequent MP Douglas Carswell UKIP

The Clacton by-election was held on 9 October 2014^[1] for the United Kingdom House of Commons constituency of Clacton.^[2][3][4][5] The by-election was triggered by the Conservative MP for Clacton, Douglas Carswell, defecting to the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and subsequently resigning his seat to seek re-election as its candidate.^[6]

Standing for UKIP, Carswell retained the seat with 59.7% of the vote, becoming UKIP's first elected MP. The Conservatives came second, and Labour third. According to John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, the result was the biggest increase in the share of a vote for any party in any by-election in history.^[7]

Background

Douglas Carswell defected from the Conservatives to UKIP and triggered the by-election by resigning his seat

On 28 August 2014 Carswell, a Eurosceptic backbencher, announced his defection to UKIP and said that he was resigning his seat in order to fight a by-election. He said he did not think Prime Minister David Cameron was "serious about the change we need", adding that "many of those at the top of the Conservative Party are simply not on our side" and "Of course they talk the talk before elections. They say what they feel they must say to get our support when they want our support, but on so many issues – on modernising our politics, on the recall of MPs, on controlling our borders[,] on less government, on bank reform, on cutting public debt, on an EU referendum – they never actually make it happen".^[8] He also said: "...local issues regarding planning and overcrowding of GP surgeries were a factor in my decision to resign".^[9]

Responding to the news that Carswell had defected and would trigger a by-election, Cameron said the contest would be held "as soon as possible". He also confirmed that the Conservatives would contest the by-election.^[10] It was later announced that the by-election would be held on 9 October, which was also Cameron's 48th birthday. The poll was one of two parliamentary by-elections the same day, with an election also being held in the constituency of Heywood and Middleton following the death of its MP, Jim Dobbin of Labour.^[11]

Analysis of demographics for the constituency prior to the by-election were said to make it the most UKIP-friendly in the country.^[12]

Conservative reaction

There was speculation that Boris Johnson, the Conservative Mayor of London, would seek the candidacy at the by-election.^[13][14] He ruled out standing, saying that he was intent on fighting Uxbridge and South Ruislip at the general election.^[15]

While many Conservatives condemned Carswell's defection, some were more supportive of him. Conservative backbencher Nigel Evans suggested that possibly the Conservatives should not stand in Clacton.^[16] Former minister Norman Tebbit refused to campaign against Carswell and claimed that the "House of Commons needs men like Douglas Carswell".^[17] Backbencher Zac Goldsmith described Carswell as a "model parliamentarian" and remarked that "I hope he is an MP after 2015".^[18]

Nick Herbert, the former policing minister, said that the Conservative Party was more concerned with the Clacton by-election rather than winning the Scottish independence referendum that was held during the early part of the Clacton campaign.^[19]

During the campaign, a second Conservative MP and close friend of Carswell,^[20] Mark Reckless, likewise defected to UKIP and sought re-election in a by-election for his constituency of Rochester and Strood.

Candidates

Tendring District Council, the local authority administering the by-election, confirmed the deadline for nominations as 4 pm on 16 September 2014.^[21]

Carswell announced that he would stand again for the seat as UKIP's candidate, although he was opposed by the recently selected UKIP candidate, Roger Lord,^[22] with some local activists speculating that they might not adopt Carswell.^[23] However, UKIP rules for selecting by-election candidates invested the decision with the National Executive Committee, which selected Carswell.^[3][24] Lord left UKIP and resigned his County Council seat, supporting the Liberal Democrats in the council by-election.^[25][26]

The Conservative candidate was actor Giles Watling^[27] who was chosen by an open primary on 11 September. He was shortlisted with Colchester councillor Sue Lissimore.^[28][29]

Colchester councillor Tim Young had been announced prior to Carswell's resignation as candidate for Labour^[30] and was confirmed as their by-election candidate.^[31][32]

The Liberal Democrat candidate, Andy Graham, is the former mayor of Bishop's Stortford in Hertfordshire.^[33] He is an actor as well as an author of children’s books.^[34]

The Green Party candidate was Chris Southall.^[35] Southall has stood for the Green Party over the last 40 years and gained some notoriety for a UFO hoax in the 1960s.^[36]

Alan "Howling Laud" Hope was the candidate for the Official Monster Raving Loony Party. He is also the leader of the party and the former mayor of Ashburton, Devon.

Charlotte Rose and Bruce Sizer were independent candidates.^[37] Rose described herself as a "high class courtesan" campaigning "for sexual freedom".^[38] Sizer was a consultant oncologist at Colchester Hospital^[39][40] who stood as a single-issue candidate to get health and cancer care onto the agenda of the political parties.^[41] He was Joint Clinical Director of the Essex Cancer Network from 2006 until 2008 and is Oncology Editor for the Oxford Concise Medical Dictionary.^[42]

Campaign

The Conservatives were mocked by UKIP supporters for sending out a leaflet, called "The Big Clacton Survey" asking voters to prioritise issues including “local train and tube service”.^[43][44][45] UKIP claimed to have recruited 150 local Conservative members after Carswell's defection.^[46]

The journalist and former Conservative MP, Matthew Parris, created a controversy by writing in The Times that the Conservatives should be “careless” of Clacton voters’ opinions as “Clacton-on-Sea is going nowhere”,^[47][48] remarks which were disowned by local Conservatives and denounced by Carswell as "reflective of what so many in the upper echelons of the Tory party really think"^[34] and were cited by two local Conservative councillors as a reason for defecting to UKIP.^[49]

An important component of the UKIP campaign was a public meeting of 700 people at the Clacton Coastal Academy with Douglas Carswell and UKIP leader Nigel Farage which was billed as the "biggest public meeting in Clacton in living memory".^[50][51][52]

Both the Prime Minister David Cameron^[53] and the Labour leader Ed Miliband^[54] visited the constituency to help their respective party campaigns.

Ten days before the election Banksy painted a mural on a wall in Clacton which showed five grey pigeons holding three placards. They held the words “go back to Africa” “migrants not welcome”, and “keep off our worms”. They were directed towards a more colourful migratory swallow perched further along the same wire. The mural was removed by Tendring District Council who had received a complaint that “offensive and racist remarks” had appeared on a wall.^[55]

Polling

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Con	Lab	UKIP	LD	Green	Others	Lead
9 Oct 2014	Clacton by-election Result	35,365	24.6%	11.2%	59.7%	1.4%	1.9%	1.2%	35.1% over Con
29 Aug–1 Sep	Lord Ashcroft (for the next General Election)	1,001	27%	19%	48%	3%	3%	<0.5%	21% over Con
29 Aug–1 Sep	Lord Ashcroft (for the 2014 by-election)	1,001	24%	16%	56%	2%	1%	1%	32% over Con
28–29 Aug	Survation (for the 2014 by-election)[56]	700	20%	13%	64%	2%	1%	<0.5%	44% over Con
6 May 2010	General Election Results	43,123	53.0%	25.0%	-	12.9%	1.2%	7.8%	28.0% over Lab

Result

By-election 2014: Clacton

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	UKIP	Douglas Carswell	21,113	59.7	N/A
	Conservative	Giles Watling	8,709	24.6	-28.4
	Labour	Tim Young	3,957	11.2	-13.8
	Green	Chris Southall	688	1.9	+0.7
	Liberal Democrat	Andrew Graham	483	1.4	-11.5
	Independent	Bruce Sizer	205	0.6	N/A
	Monster Raving Loony	Alan "Howling Laud" Hope	127	0.4	N/A
	Independent	Charlotte Rose	56	0.2	N/A
Majority			12,404	35.1
Turnout			35,338	51
	UKIP gain from Conservative		Swing	+44.1

The election produced a number of statistical records, partly because of the unusual situation in which an incumbent MP with a large majority for one party has resigned and then stood for re-election on behalf of a new party for which support was in any case on a strongly rising trend. The 59.7% increase in the percentage vote achieved by UKIP since the previous general election (when they did not field a candidate) is the greatest ever in British parliamentary elections, although the percentage swing remains 0.1% less than the record 44.2% swing to the Liberal Party at the 1983 Bermondsey by-election. The 28.4% reduction in Conservative votes is the 16th worst for any party since the Second World War, while the 1.4% of the vote achieved by the Liberal Democrats was, at the time, the third smallest vote ever obtained by a major party, and the worst since World War II.^[57] Since then, however, the Liberal Democrats received an even smaller proportion of the vote at the Rochester and Strood by-election later in 2014.^[58]

Previous result

UKIP did not stand a candidate against Douglas Carswell in 2010, citing his Eurosceptic views.

General Election 2010: Clacton^[59]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Conservative	Douglas Carswell	22,867	53.0	+8.6
	Labour	Ivan Henderson	10,799	25.0	−10.9
	Liberal Democrat	Michael Green	5,577	12.9	−0.6
	BNP	Jim Taylor	1,975	4.6	N/A
	Tendring First	Terry Allen	1,078	2.5	N/A
	Green	Chris Southall	535	1.2	N/A
	Independent	Chris Humphrey	292	0.7	N/A
Majority			12,068	28.0
Turnout			43,123	64.2	+1.6
	Conservative hold		Swing	+9.7

See also

• United Kingdom general election, 2015
• European Parliament election, 2014 (United Kingdom)
• List of United Kingdom by-elections
• Opinion polling for the United Kingdom general election, 2015
• Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election in individual constituencies

References

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