Opinion polling for the 2010 United Kingdom general election
In the run up to the general election of 2010, several polling organisations carried out opinion polling in regards to voting intention in Great Britain (i.e. the UK excluding Northern Ireland, which is usually excluded from such voting intention surveys). Results of such polls are displayed below.
The election took place on 6 May 2010, coinciding with the local elections. The previous general election was held on 5 May 2005.
Tony Blair stood down as prime minister after 10 years in June 2007, and was succeeded by chancellor Gordon Brown. That autumn, the national media reported that an imminent general election was likely, putting all polling organisations, the press and political parties on an election footing, but he eventually announced that he would not seek a dissolution. According to many media and political figures, this was because he believed that Labour was likely to lose its majority in a snap general election, even though many opinion polls suggested that a fourth successive election win for Labour was likely, and this would potentially have ensured the Labour government's survival to the end of 2012. Gordon Brown has since maintained that Labour would have won but he did not believe an early election was in the national interest.
In the meantime, Michael Howard had stepped down as Tory leader after the 2005 general election, being succeeded by David Cameron. In January 2006, Charles Kennedy stepped down as leader of the Liberal Democrats to be succeeded by Menzies Campbell, who himself resigned at the end of the following year to be succeeded by Nick Clegg.
2006 had seen the Tories make gains in local elections, as well as enjoying their first consistent lead of the opinion polls in 14 years. 2007 had seen both the Tories and Labour lead the opinion polls, but 2008 saw the Tories build up a wide lead as the Labour government's support slumped in the face of the economic crisis. Labour also suffered huge losses in local elections, as well as suffering by-election defeats, with the Tories, Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party all enjoying success at Labour's expense. This trend continued throughout 2009 as the recession deepened and unemployment continued to soar. The expenses scandal also had an adverse affect on the Labour government's dwindling popularity, although MP's from other parties were also shamed in the scandal. Labour also performed dismally in the European parliament elections of 2009, and opinion polls pointed towards a heavy defeat in the event of a general election. The previous two general elections had both been held at four-year intervals, but there would be no general election in 2009.
On 6 April 2010, Gordon Brown called a general election for 6 May - with the opinion polls still showing a Conservative lead, although most of the polls showed that a Conservative majority was unlikely, suggesting that Labour could still continue in a minority or coalition government. In the event, the Tories enjoyed the largest share of votes and seats, but came 20 seats short of a majority. On 11 May 2010, Gordon Brown tendered his resignation as prime minister to the Queen, and recommended that David Cameron should be invited to form the next government. Cameron duly did so, forming a government in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, and making their leader Nick Clegg deputy prime minister.
Background
Since each MP is elected separately by the first past the post voting system, it is impossible to precisely project a clear election outcome from overall national shares of the vote. Not only can individual constituencies vary markedly from overall voting trends, but individual countries and regions within the nation may have a very different electoral contest that is not properly reflected in overall share of the vote figures.
Therefore, the first past the post system means that the number of MPs elected may not reflect the overall popular vote share across the parties. Thus, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote that ends up with the largest number of MPs. (See details of the elections in 1951 and February 1974) Since 1935 no party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a British general election. The voting system favours parties with relatively concentrated support: a widely distributed vote leaves a party at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP-Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.
That said, in previous elections, approximate forecasting of results were achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system, known as uniform national swing (UNS) is used by much of the media in Britain to assess and extrapolate electoral fortunes from opinion poll data, though there has been criticism that such predictions may be naive and unreliable, even from providers of such data.[1] By using UNS projections, several media commentators and politicians have suggested that significant swings towards the Liberal Democrats in the opinion polls may not necessarily amount to significant gains in terms of parliamentary seats, including predictions that even if the Liberal Democrats had the most votes, and Labour the least, it could be the case that Labour retains the most seats while the Lib Dems have the fewest.[2][3][4]
Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House of Commons reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence.
Polling since 2005
Immediately following the previous general election, the Labour party held a double-digit lead in opinion polls. However, over the course of 2005, this lead was eroded somewhat. By December 2005, the Conservative party showed its first small leads in opinion polls following the controversial 90 days detention proposals and the election of David Cameron to the leadership of the Conservative party.[5]
In early 2006, opinion polls were increasingly mixed with small leads given alternately to Labour and Conservative. From the May 2006 local elections, in which Labour suffered significant losses, the Conservatives took a small single-digit lead in opinion polls. Labour regained the lead in June 2007 following the resignation of Tony Blair and the appointment of Gordon Brown as prime minister. From November 2007, the Conservatives again took the lead and, from then, extended their lead into double digits, particularly in response to the MPs' expenses scandal and the economic recession along with the increased unemployment that resulted from it, although there was some evidence that the lead narrowed slightly towards the end of 2009. By the end of February 2010, Ipsos MORI, ICM, YouGov and ComRes polls had all found a sufficient narrowing of the Conservative lead for media speculation about a hung parliament to return.[6]
From 15 April 2010, following the first televised debate of the party leaders, however, polling data changed dramatically, with the Lib Dem vote proportion rising to 28–33%, and the Conservative vote proportion falling. In some polls, the Liberal Democrats took the lead from the Conservatives. Under UNS projections, this made a hung parliament highly probable, if Lib Dem performance had persisted.[7]
After the second debate on 22 April the polls, on average, placed the Conservatives in the lead on 33%, the Liberal Democrats in second on 30% and Labour in third on 28%. If these polls had reflected the election day results on a uniform swing nationwide, Labour would have had the most seats in a hung Parliament.
Exit poll
At 10 pm on election day, coinciding with the closure of the polls, the results of an exit poll collected for the BBC, Sky and ITV news services were announced. Data were gathered from individuals at 130 polling stations around the country. The results of the poll initially suggested a hung parliament with the Conservative Party 19 seats from a controlling majority; this was later adjusted to 21 seats. The distribution of seats amongst the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and other parties was initially suggested to be 307, 255, 59 and 29 respectively,[8] although the seat numbers were later changed to 303, 251, 69, and 27 respectively.[9]
Initial reaction to the exit poll by various commentators was of surprise at the apparent poor prospects for the Liberal Democrats[10] because it was odds with many opinion polls undertaken in the previous weeks. However, the actual results showed that the exit poll was a good predictor.
A later BBC Exit poll (05:36 BST) predicted the Conservatives on 306, 20 short of an overall majority, Labour on 262, and Liberal Democrats on 55.[9]
Graphical summaries
The following graph shows ICM poll results since the last general election. Results for Conservative are in Blue, Labour in Red, Liberal Democrat Gold and Others in Grey. Other polling houses may show different results, and all polls are subject to a margin of error and possible house bias.
The following graph shows YouGov poll results since the calling of the general election.
The following graph shows ComRes poll results recorded over the period April 11 – May 6, 2010, including annotations of the three TV debates.
Poll results
Poll results are initially listed in reverse chronological order showing the most recent first, using the date the fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.
The figure given in the 'lead' column before the televised leaders' debates is the lead held by Labour or the Conservatives over the second placed of the two parties. For figures after the first debate, after which the Liberal Democrats were placed in first or second position in some polls, the second placed party is also noted in the column where applicable.
Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council, and abide by its disclosure rules. BPIX is not a member of the BPC, and does not publish detailed methodology and findings.
2010
| Date(s) Conducted | Polling Organisation/Client | Sample Size | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrats | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 May | Election Results (GB only) | 29,691,380 | 29.7% | 36.9% | 23.6% | 9.8% | 7.2% over Lab |
| 5 May | Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard | 1,216 | 29% | 36% | 27% | 8% | 7% over Lab |
| 4–5 May | YouGov/The Sun | 6,483 | 28% | 35% | 28% | 9% | 7% over Lab/LD |
| 4–5 May | Harris Interactive/Daily Mail | 4,014 | 29% | 35% | 27% | 7% | 6% over Lab |
| 4–5 May | Populus/The Times | 2,505 | 28% | 37% | 27% | 8% | 9% over Lab |
| 4–5 May | Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com | 2,283 | 24% | 36% | 29% | 11% | 7% over LD |
| 4–5 May | Opinium/Daily Express | 1,383 | 27% | 35% | 26% | 12% | 8% over Lab |
| 4–5 May | ComRes/ITV/The Independent | 1,025 | 28% | 37% | 28% | 7% | 9% over Lab/LD |
| 3–4 May | ICM/The Guardian | 1,527 | 28% | 36% | 26% | 10% | 8% over Lab |
| 3–4 May | YouGov/The Sun | 1,461 | 30% | 35% | 24% | 11% | 5% over Lab |
| 29 Apr–4 May | TNS-BMRB | 1,864 | 27% | 33% | 29% | 11% | 4% over LD |
| 28 Apr–4 May | Harris Interactive/Metro | 786 | 26% | 36% | 28% | 10% | 8% over LD |
| 2–3 May | ComRes/ITV/The Independent | 1,024 | 29% | 37% | 26% | 8% | 8% over Lab |
| 2–3 May | YouGov/The Sun | 1,455 | 28% | 35% | 28% | 9% | 7% over Lab/LD |
| 30 Apr – 3 May | Opinium/Daily Express | 1,870 | 28% | 33% | 27% | 12% | 5% over Lab |
| 1–2 May | YouGov/The Sun | 1,475 | 28% | 34% | 29% | 9% | 5% over LD |
| 1–2 May | ComRes/ITV/The Independent | 1,024 | 29% | 37% | 26% | 8% | 8% over Lab |
| 30 Apr – 2 May | ICM/The Guardian | 1,026 | 28% | 33% | 28% | 12% | 5% over Lab/LD |
| 30 Apr – 1 May | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,483 | 27% | 35% | 28% | 10% | 7% over LD |
| 30 Apr – 1 May | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror | 1,019 | 28% | 38% | 25% | 9% | 10% over Lab |
| 30 Apr – 1 May | BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] | 2,136 | 27% | 34% | 30% | 9% | 4% over LD |
| 30 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,412 | 28% | 34% | 28% | 10% | 6% over Lab/LD |
| 30 Apr | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,019 | 29% | 36% | 27% | 8% | 7% over Lab |
| 29–30 Apr | Angus Reid Public Opinion/Sunday Express | 1,874 | 23% | 35% | 29% | 13% | 6% over LD |
| 29–30 Apr | Harris Interactive/Daily Mail | 1,020 | 24% | 33% | 32% | 11% | 1% over LD |
| 29 Apr | The third and final Prime Ministerial debate was held. It featured Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg, and was produced by the BBC, being broadcast on BBC One and Sky News. | ||||||
| 28–29 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,623 | 27% | 34% | 28% | 11% | 6% over LD |
| 27–28 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,530 | 27% | 34% | 31% | 8% | 3% over LD |
| 28 Apr | Gordon Brown is caught on a microphone making unguarded comments in which he describes a voter he had just met on the campaign trail, Gillian Duffy, as a "sort of bigoted woman". | ||||||
| 26–27 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,598 | 29% | 33% | 28% | 10% | 4% over Lab |
| 26–27 Apr | ComRes/ITV News/The Independent | 1,006 | 29% | 36% | 26% | 9% | 7% over Lab |
| 26–27 Apr | Populus/The Times | 1,510 | 27% | 36% | 28% | 8% | 8% over LD |
| 21–27 Apr | TNS-BMRB | 2,078 | 27% | 34% | 30% | 9% | 4% over LD |
| 25–26 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,491 | 28% | 33% | 29% | 10% | 4% over LD |
| 25–26 Apr | ComRes/ITV News/The Independent | 1,005 | 29% | 33% | 29% | 9% | 4% over Lab |
| 23–26 Apr | Opinium/Daily Express | 1,942 | 25% | 34% | 28% | 13% | 6% over LD |
| 23–26 Apr | Angus Reid Public Opinion/The Economist | 2,433 | 23% | 33% | 30% | 14% | 3% over LD |
| 20–26 Apr | Harris Interactive/Metro | 1,678 | 25% | 32% | 30% | 13% | 2% over LD |
| 24–25 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,466 | 28% | 34% | 30% | 8% | 4% over LD |
| 24–25 Apr | ComRes/ITV News/The Independent | 1,003 | 28% | 32% | 31% | 9% | 1% over LD |
| 23–25 Apr | ICM/The Guardian | 1,031 | 28% | 33% | 30% | 8% | 3% over LD |
| 23–24 Apr | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,412 | 27% | 35% | 28% | 9% | 7% over LD |
| 23–24 Apr | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror | 1,006 | 28% | 34% | 29% | 9% | 5% over LD |
| 23–24 Apr | BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] | 2,139 | 26% | 34% | 30% | 10% | 4% over LD |
| 23 Apr | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,020 | 26% | 35% | 31% | 8% | 4% over LD |
| 23 Apr | Ipsos MORI/News of the World | 1,245 | 30% | 36% | 23% | 11% | 6% over Lab |
| 22–23 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,381 | 29% | 34% | 29% | 8% | 5% over Lab/LD |
| 22–23 Apr | Harris Interactive/Daily Mail | 1,048 | 26% | 34% | 29% | 11% | 5% over LD |
| 22 Apr | The second televised Prime Ministerial debate, of three in the election campaign, was held featuring Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg, and was produced by Sky, being broadcast on Sky News and the BBC News Channel. | ||||||
| 21–22 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,576 | 29% | 34% | 28% | 9% | 5% over Lab |
| 20–21 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,545 | 27% | 33% | 31% | 9% | 2% over LD |
| 19–20 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,595 | 26% | 31% | 34% | 9% | 3% over Con |
| 19–20 Apr | Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com | 1,953 | 23% | 32% | 33% | 12% | 1% over Con |
| 19–20 Apr | ComRes/ITV News/The Independent | 1,015 | 25% | 35% | 27% | 13% | 8% over LD |
| 19–20 Apr | Populus/The Times | 1,501 | 28% | 32% | 31% | 9% | 1% over LD |
| 18–20 Apr | Ipsos MORI/The Standard | 1,253 | 28% | 32% | 32% | 8% | 0% |
| 14–20 Apr | TNS-BMRB | 1,953 | 29% | 34% | 30% | 7% | 4% over LD |
| 18–19 Apr | ComRes/ITV News/The Independent | 1,012 | 26% | 35% | 26% | 13% | 9% over Lab/LD |
| 18–19 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,509 | 27% | 33% | 31% | 8% | 2% over LD |
| 16–19 Apr | Opinium/Daily Express | 1,957 | 26% | 32% | 29% | 13% | 3% over LD |
| 16–19 Apr | Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com | 2,004 | 24% | 32% | 32% | 12% | 0% |
| 14–19 Apr | Harris Interactive/Metro | 1,792 | 26% | 31% | 30% | 13% | 1% over LD |
| 17–18 Apr | ComRes/ITV News/The Independent | 1,003 | 28% | 32% | 28% | 12% | 4% over Lab/LD |
| 17–18 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,433 | 26% | 32% | 33% | 8% | 1% over Con |
| 16–18 Apr | ICM/The Guardian | 1,024 | 28% | 33% | 30% | 9% | 3% over LD |
| 16–17 Apr | BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] | 2,149 | 28% | 31% | 32% | 9% | 1% over Con |
| 16–17 Apr | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,490 | 30% | 33% | 29% | 8% | 3% over Lab |
| 16–17 Apr | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror | 1,006 | 27% | 31% | 29% | 13% | 2% over LD |
| 15–16 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,290 | 28% | 33% | 30% | 9% | 3% over LD |
| 15 Apr | ComRes/ITV News | 4,032 | 28% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% over Lab |
| 15 Apr | The first ever televised Prime Ministerial debate, and the first of three in the election campaign, was held. The debate featured Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg, and was produced and broadcast by ITV. | ||||||
| 14–15 Apr | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,033 | 29% | 34% | 27% | 10% | 5% |
| 14–15 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,490 | 31% | 37% | 22% | 10% | 6% |
| 14 Apr | The Liberal Democrats launch their 2010 election manifesto. | ||||||
| 13–14 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,578 | 32% | 41% | 18% | 9% | 9% |
| 13 Apr | The Conservative Party launches its 2010 election manifesto. | ||||||
| 12–13 Apr | ComRes/ITV News/The Independent | 1,001 | 29% | 35% | 21% | 15% | 6% |
| 12–13 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,583 | 31% | 39% | 20% | 9% | 8% |
| 8–13 Apr | Harris Interactive/Metro | 1,523 | 27% | 36% | 23% | 14% | 9% |
| 7–13 Apr | TNS-BMRB | 1,916 | 33% | 36% | 22% | 9% | 3% |
| 12 Apr | Populus/The Times | 1,525 | 33% | 36% | 21% | 9% | 3% |
| 12 Apr | The Labour Party launches its 2010 election manifesto. | ||||||
| 11–12 Apr | ComRes/ITV News/The Independent | 1,002 | 31% | 36% | 19% | 14% | 5% |
| 11–12 Apr | Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com | 2,006 | 28% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 10% |
| 11–12 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,493 | 33% | 39% | 20% | 8% | 6% |
| 9–12 Apr | Opinium/Daily Express | 1,825 | 31% | 39% | 17% | 13% | 8% |
| 10–11 Apr | ComRes/ITV News/The Independent | 1,004 | 30% | 37% | 20% | 13% | 7% |
| 10–11 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,455 | 31% | 37% | 20% | 12% | 6% |
| 9–11 Apr | ICM/The Guardian | 1,024 | 31% | 37% | 20% | 11% | 6% |
| 9–10 Apr | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,431 | 32% | 40% | 18% | 10% | 8% |
| 9–10 Apr | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror | 1,001 | 32% | 39% | 16% | 13% | 7% |
| 9–10 Apr | BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] | 2,051 | 31% | 38% | 20% | 11% | 7% |
| 8–9 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,527 | 30% | 40% | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| 7–8 Apr | Harris Interative/Daily Mail | 1,012 | 27% | 37% | 22% | 14% | 10% |
| 7–8 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,626 | 31% | 40% | 18% | 11% | 9% |
| 7 Apr | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,032 | 30% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 8% |
| 6–7 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,484 | 32% | 37% | 19% | 12% | 5% |
| 6–7 Apr | Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com | 2,193 | 26% | 37% | 22% | 14% | 11% |
| 6 Apr | Populus/The Times | 1,507 | 32% | 39% | 21% | 8% | 7% |
| 6 Apr | General election officially called: Prime Minister Gordon Brown announces HM The Queen has agreed to a dissolution of Parliament, allowing the general election to take place on 6 May. | ||||||
| 5–6 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,456 | 32% | 40% | 17% | 11% | 8% |
| 31 Mar-6 Apr | Harris Interactive/Metro | 2,080 | 28% | 37% | 20% | 15% | 9% |
| 4–5 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,620 | 31% | 41% | 18% | 11% | 10% |
| 2–5 Apr | Opinium/Daily Express | 1,903 | 29% | 39% | 17% | 15% | 10% |
| 1–3 Apr | ICM/Guardian | 1,001 | 33% | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% |
| 1–2 Apr | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,503 | 29% | 39% | 20% | 12% | 10% |
| 31 Mar-1 Apr | Angus Reid Public Opinion/Sunday Express | 1,991 | 27% | 38% | 20% | 15% | 11% |
| 31 Mar-1 Apr | YouGov/The Sun | 1,552 | 31% | 39% | 19% | 11% | 8% |
| 30–31 Mar | ICM/Guardian | 1,003 | 29% | 38% | 23% | 10% | 9% |
| 30–31 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,615 | 32% | 38% | 19% | 11% | 6% |
| 30–31 Mar | Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com | 2,013 | 28% | 37% | 22% | 13% | 9% |
| 29–30 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,681 | 31% | 38% | 19% | 12% | 7% |
| 24–30 Mar | TNS-BMRB | 1,819 | 33% | 38% | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| 29 Mar | Ask the Chancellors is aired on Channel 4. | ||||||
| 28–29 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,614 | 32% | 39% | 18% | 11% | 7% |
| 26–29 Mar | Opinium/Daily Express | 1,780 | 28% | 38% | 18% | 16% | 10% |
| 23–29 Mar | Harris Interactive/Metro | 1,133 | 27% | 37% | 19% | 17% | 10% |
| 26–28 Mar | ComRes/The Independent | 1,001 | 30% | 37% | 20% | 13% | 7% |
| 25–26 Mar | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,533 | 32% | 37% | 19% | 13% | 5% |
| 25–26 Mar | BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] | 800 | 30% | 37% | 20% | 13% | 7% |
| 24–25 Mar | ICM/News of the World | 1,003 | 31% | 39% | 19% | 11% | 8% |
| 24–25 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,483 | 33% | 37% | 18% | 12% | 4% |
| 24 Mar | Labour Chancellor Alistair Darling announces the budget for Her Majesty's Government. | ||||||
| 23–24 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,554 | 34% | 36% | 17% | 13% | 2% |
| 22–23 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,756 | 33% | 37% | 18% | 12% | 4% |
| 22 Mar | It is announced that David Cameron's wife, Samantha, is pregnant. | ||||||
| 21–22 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,560 | 32% | 36% | 20% | 12% | 4% |
| 19–22 Mar | Ipsos MORI/Daily Mirror | 1,503 | 30% | 35% | 21% | 14% | 5% |
| 19–22 Mar | Opinium/Daily Express | 1,975 | 30% | 37% | 15% | 18% | 7% |
| 17–22 Mar | Harris Interactive/Metro | 2,117 | 28% | 35% | 17% | 20% | 7% |
| 20 Mar | British Airways cabin crew begin the first of two multi-day strikes in opposition to a series of changes the airlines has introduced in an attempt to cut costs. | ||||||
| 18–19 Mar | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,547 | 31% | 38% | 19% | 13% | 7% |
| 18 Mar | Gordon Brown admits that defence spending "did not rise in real terms every year under Labour", contradicting the evidence he gave to the Iraq Inquiry and the House of Commons seven days previously. | ||||||
| 17–18 Mar | ICM/News of the World | 1,002 | 32% | 38% | 19% | 10% | 6% |
| 17–18 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,671 | 32% | 36% | 20% | 12% | 4% |
| 16–17 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,676 | 32% | 36% | 20% | 11% | 4% |
| 15–16 Mar | Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com | 2,003 | 26% | 39% | 21% | 15% | 13% |
| 15–16 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,460 | 32% | 37% | 19% | 12% | 5% |
| 10–16 Mar | Harris Interactive/Metro | 1,934 | 28% | 36% | 18% | 18% | 8% |
| 14–15 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,466 | 32% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 5% |
| 12–15 Mar | Opinium/Daily Express | 1,951 | 28% | 39% | 16% | 17% | 11% |
| 12–14 Mar | ICM/The Guardian | 1,002 | 31% | 40% | 20% | 9% | 9% |
| 11–12 Mar | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,507 | 33% | 37% | 17% | 12% | 4% |
| 10–11 Mar | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,007 | 31% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 7% |
| 10–11 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,434 | 34% | 37% | 17% | 12% | 3% |
| 9–10 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,473 | 32% | 37% | 17% | 14% | 5% |
| 9–10 Mar | Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com | 2,003 | 26% | 39% | 18% | 17% | 13% |
| 8–9 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,524 | 32% | 36% | 20% | 12% | 4% |
| 7–8 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,747 | 34% | 39% | 16% | 11% | 5% |
| 5–8 Mar | Opinium/Daily Express | 1,960 | 30% | 37% | 16% | 16% | 7% |
| 3–8 Mar | Harris Interactive/Metro | 1,498 | 29% | 37% | 18% | 16% | 8% |
| 4–5 Mar | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,558 | 33% | 38% | 17% | 12% | 5% |
| 4–5 Mar | BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] | 5,655 | 34% | 36% | 18% | 12% | 2% |
| 3–4 Mar | ICM/News of the World | 1,005 | 31% | 40% | 18% | 11% | 9% |
| 3–4 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,640 | 32% | 38% | 17% | 13% | 6% |
| 2–3 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,661 | 32% | 38% | 19% | 12% | 6% |
| 25 Feb – 3 Mar | TNS-BMRB | 1,973 | 31% | 39% | 19% | 11% | 8% |
| 1–2 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,479 | 33% | 38% | 16% | 13% | 5% |
| 28 Feb-1 Mar | YouGov/The Sun | 1,505 | 32% | 39% | 17% | 12% | 7% |
| 26–28 Feb | ComRes/The Independent | 1,005 | 32% | 37% | 19% | 12% | 5% |
| 25–26 Feb | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,436 | 35% | 37% | 17% | 11% | 2% |
| 26 Feb | The Office for National Statistics revises fourth quarter GDP figures for 2009 from growth of 0.1% to 0.3%. | ||||||
| 24–25 Feb | YouGov/The Sun | 1,472 | 33% | 39% | 16% | 12% | 6% |
| 23–24 Feb | YouGov/The Sun | 1,473 | 32% | 38% | 19% | 10% | 6% |
| 18–24 Feb | TNS-BMRB | 1,954 | 32% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 4% |
| 22–23 Feb | YouGov/The Sun | 1,469 | 32% | 38% | 17% | 12% | 6% |
| 21–22 Feb | YouGov/The Sun | 1,578 | 33% | 39% | 17% | 12% | 6% |
| 19–22 Feb | Ipsos MORI/Daily Telegraph | 1,533 | 32% | 37% | 19% | 12% | 5% |
| 16–22 Feb | Harris Interative/Metro | 918 | 30% | 39% | 22% | 9% | 9% |
| 19–21 Feb | ICM/The Guardian | 1,004 | 30% | 37% | 20% | 13% | 7% |
| 18–19 Feb | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,472 | 33% | 39% | 17% | 11% | 6% |
| 16–19 Feb | Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com | 4,004 | 26% | 38% | 19% | 16% | 12% |
| 17–18 Feb | YouGov/The Sun | 1,558 | 32% | 39% | 18% | 11% | 7% |
| 16–17 Feb | ComRes/Theos | 1,085 | 30% | 38% | 20% | 11% | 8% |
| 16–17 Feb | Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com | 2,002 | 26% | 40% | 18% | 16% | 14% |
| 16–17 Feb | YouGov/The Sun | 2,145 | 30% | 39% | 18% | 13% | 9% |
| 10–11 Feb | ComRes/The Independent | 1,009 | 29% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 11% |
| 9–10 Feb | Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com | 2,002 | 25% | 38% | 20% | 16% | 13% |
| 5–7 Feb | Populus/The Times | 1,502 | 30% | 40% | 20% | 11% | 10% |
| 3–4 Feb | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,001 | 30% | 39% | 20% | 11% | 9% |
| 29–31 Jan | ComRes/The Independent | 1,001 | 31% | 38% | 19% | 12% | 7% |
| 29–30 Jan | BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] | 1,524 | 30% | 39% | 18% | 13% | 9% |
| 28–29 Jan | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,054 | 31% | 38% | 19% | 12% | 7% |
| 26–28 Jan | YouGov/The People | 2,044 | 31% | 40% | 18% | 11% | 9% |
| 26–28 Jan | Ipsos MORI/Daily Mirror | 1,001 | 32% | 40% | 16% | 12% | 8% |
| 26–27 Jan | Angus Reid Public Opinion/PoliticalBetting.com | 2,004 | 24% | 40% | 19% | 16% | 16% |
| 26 Jan | The Office for National Statistics announces that the UK economy exited recession in the fourth quarter of 2009 with growth of 0.1%. | ||||||
| 22–24 Jan | ICM/The Guardian | 1,000 | 29% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 11% |
| 20–21 Jan | ComRes/Sunday Mirror | 1,004 | 29% | 38% | 19% | 14% | 9% |
| 20 Jan | The unemployment level unexpectedly falls to 7.8%, the first fall since May 2008. | ||||||
| 14–15 Jan | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,033 | 31% | 40% | 18% | 11% | 9% |
| 13–14 Jan | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,005 | 29% | 42% | 19% | 10% | 13% |
| 9–10 Jan | Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com | 2,010 | 24% | 40% | 20% | 17% | 16% |
| 8–10 Jan | Populus/The Times | 1,509 | 28% | 41% | 19% | 12% | 13% |
| 6–7 Jan | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,003 | 30% | 40% | 18% | 12% | 10% |
| 6–7 Jan | YouGov/The Sun | 2,832 | 30% | 42% | 16% | 12% | 12% |
| 6 Jan | Former Cabinet ministers Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt call for a secret ballot on Gordon Brown's leadership. The plot receives little support from Labour MPs, although support for Brown from his cabinet ministers appears only lukewarm. | ||||||
| 5–6 Jan | YouGov/The Sun | 4,167 | 31% | 40% | 17% | 12% | 9% |
2009
| Date(s) Conducted | Polling Organisation/Client | Sample Size | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrats | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29–30 Dec | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,848 | 30% | 40% | 17% | 12% | 10% |
| 19–20 Dec | ComRes/The Independent | 1,006 | 29% | 38% | 19% | 14% | 9% |
| 16–18 Dec | Angus Reid Strategies/Political Betting.com | 2,010 | 24% | 40% | 20% | 15% | 16% |
| 15–17 Dec | YouGov/The People | 2,052 | 28% | 40% | 18% | 14% | 12% |
| 11–13 Dec | ICM/The Guardian | 1,009 | 31% | 40% | 18% | 11% | 9% |
| 11–13 Dec | Ipsos MORI/The Observer | 1,017 | 26% | 43% | 20% | 12% | 17% |
| 10–11 Dec | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,044 | 31% | 40% | 16% | 13% | 9% |
| 10–11 Dec | BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] | 2,036 | 30% | 41% | 17% | 12% | 11% |
| 9–10 Dec | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,001 | 24% | 41% | 21% | 14% | 17% |
| 8–10 Dec | Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com | 2,002 | 23% | 40% | 19% | 19% | 17% |
| 9 Dec | Alistair Darling delivers his Pre-Budget Report, which includes an increase in National Insurance contributions and a one-off 50% tax on bankers' bonuses. | ||||||
| 4–6 Dec | Populus/The Times | 1,505 | 30% | 38% | 20% | 12% | 8% |
| 3–4 Dec | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,095 | 27% | 40% | 18% | 15% | 13% |
| 2–3 Dec | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,001 | 29% | 40% | 19% | 12% | 11% |
| 27–29 Nov | ComRes/The Independent | 1,003 | 27% | 37% | 20% | 16% | 10% |
| 24–26 Nov | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,004 | 29% | 39% | 19% | 13% | 10% |
| 20–23 Nov | Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com | 2,004 | 22% | 39% | 21% | 18% | 17% |
| 13–15 Nov | Ipsos MORI/The Observer | 1,006 | 31% | 37% | 17% | 13% | 6% |
| 13–15 Nov | ICM/The Guardian | 1,010 | 29% | 42% | 19% | 10% | 13% |
| 12–13 Nov | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,026 | 27% | 41% | 18% | 14% | 14% |
| 12 Nov | Glasgow North East by-election: Labour wins seat with a majority of over 8,000. | ||||||
| 11–12 Nov | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,007 | 25% | 39% | 17% | 19% | 14% |
| 6–8 Nov | Populus/The Times | 1,504 | 29% | 39% | 18% | 14% | 10% |
| 4–6 Nov | Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com | 2,000 | 24% | 38% | 20% | 17% | 14% |
| 4–5 Nov | YouGov/Channel 4 News | 1,021 | 27% | 41% | 17% | 16% | 14% |
| 3 Nov | Conservative leader David Cameron announces a future Conservative government would not offer a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in the light of its ratification by all 27 EU countries. | ||||||
| 28–29 Oct | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,007 | 25% | 42% | 21% | 13% | 17% |
| 27–29 Oct | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,024 | 28% | 41% | 16% | 15% | 13% |
| 23–25 Oct | ComRes/The Independent | 1,004 | 27% | 40% | 18% | 15% | 13% |
| 22–23 Oct | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,314 | 27% | 40% | 19% | 14% | 13% |
| 22 Oct | The British National Party leader, Nick Griffin, appears on 'Question Time' for the first time. | ||||||
| 16–18 Oct | ICM/The Guardian | 1,002 | 27% | 44% | 18% | 11% | 17% |
| 16–18 Oct | Ipsos MORI | 996 | 26% | 43% | 19% | 11% | 17% |
| 15–16 Oct | Angus Reid Strategies/PoliticalBetting.com | 2,077 | 23% | 40% | 20% | 15% | 17% |
| 15–16 Oct | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,025 | 30% | 41% | 17% | 12% | 11% |
| 14–15 Oct | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,008 | 28% | 40% | 19% | 13% | 12% |
| 9–11 Oct | Populus/The Times | 1,509 | 30% | 40% | 18% | 12% | 10% |
| 8–9 Oct | BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] | 2,136 | 29% | 43% | 16% | 12% | 14% |
| 8–9 Oct | BPIX/Daily Mail[11] | 2,215 | 28% | 42% | 18% | 12% | 14% |
| 8–9 Oct | YouGov/The Sun | 2,161 | 28% | 42% | 18% | 12% | 14% |
| 8–9 Oct | YouGov/Sky News | 1,064 | 27% | 44% | 17% | 12% | 17% |
| 7–9 Oct | ICM/News of the World | 1,008 | 26% | 45% | 18% | 10% | 19% |
| 7–8 Oct | YouGov/Sky News | 1,074 | 31% | 40% | 18% | 11% | 9% |
| 6–7 Oct | YouGov/Sky News | 1,039 | 29% | 43% | 17% | 11% | 14% |
| 5–6 Oct | YouGov/Sky News | 1,223 | 28% | 41% | 18% | 13% | 13% |
| 5–8 Oct | The Conservatives hold their 2009 party conference in Manchester | ||||||
| 4–5 Oct | YouGov/Sky News | 1,102 | 27% | 40% | 20% | 13% | 13% |
| 3 Oct | YouGov/The People | 2,027 | 28% | 40% | 18% | 14% | 12% |
| 1–2 Oct | YouGov/Sky News | 1,053 | 29% | 41% | 17% | 13% | 12% |
| 30 Sep-1 Oct | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,022 | 28% | 40% | 19% | 13% | 12% |
| 30 Sep-1 Oct | YouGov/Sky News | 1,085 | 26% | 40% | 20% | 15% | 14% |
| 29–30 Sep | YouGov/Sky News | 1,078 | 30% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 7% |
| 28–29 Sep | YouGov/Sky News | 1,024 | 29% | 40% | 18% | 13% | 11% |
| 27–28 Sep | YouGov/Sky News | 1,051 | 29% | 39% | 20% | 13% | 10% |
| 27 Sep-1 Oct | Labour hold their 2009 party conference in Brighton | ||||||
| 25–27 Sep | Ipsos MORI | 1,003 | 24% | 36% | 25% | 15% | 11% over LD |
| 25–27 Sep | ComRes/The Independent | 1,003 | 23% | 38% | 23% | 16% | 15% |
| 27 SepP | BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] | Unknown[11] | 25% | 40% | 22% | 13% | 15% |
| 24–25 Sep | YouGov/Sky News | 1,059 | 24% | 40% | 21% | 14% | 16% |
| 23–24 Sep | YouGov/Sky News | 1,057 | 25% | 38% | 23% | 14% | 13% |
| 23–24 Sep | ICM/News of the World | 1,003 | 26% | 40% | 23% | 11% | 14% |
| 22–24 Sep | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,026 | 26% | 39% | 20% | 15% | 13% |
| 22–23 Sep | YouGov/Sky News | 1,036 | 28% | 38% | 19% | 15% | 10% |
| 21–22 Sep | YouGov/Sky News | 1,062 | 27% | 39% | 20% | 13% | 12% |
| 20–21 Sep | YouGov/Sky News | 1,081 | 30% | 39% | 17% | 14% | 9% |
| 19–23 Sep | The Liberal Democrats hold their 2009 party conference in Bournemouth | ||||||
| 18–20 Sep | ICM/The Guardian | 1,001 | 26% | 43% | 19% | 12% | 17% |
| 11–13 Sep | Populus/The Times | 1,506 | 27% | 41% | 18% | 14% | 14% |
| 10–11 Sep | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,009 | 27% | 41% | 17% | 15% | 14% |
| 4–6 Sep | ComRes/The Independent | 1,005 | 24% | 40% | 21% | 15% | 16% |
| 4–6 Sep | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,573 | 27% | 40% | 18% | 15% | 13% |
| 27–28 Aug | YouGov/The Sun | 1,996 | 28% | 42% | 17% | 14% | 14% |
| 25–27 Aug | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,199 | 26% | 42% | 18% | 14% | 16% |
| 21–23 Aug | Ipsos MORI | 1,013 | 26% | 43% | 17% | 13% | 17% |
| 21–23 Aug | ICM/The Guardian | 1,004 | 25% | 41% | 19% | 14% | 16% |
| 19–20 Aug | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,013 | 24% | 41% | 18% | 16% | 17% |
| 13–14 Aug | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,007 | 28% | 42% | 18% | 13% | 14% |
| 12–13 Aug | ICM/Sunday Mirror | 1,005 | 26% | 43% | 19% | 12% | 17% |
| 28–30 July | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,334 | 27% | 41% | 18% | 15% | 14% |
| 24–26 July | ComRes/The Independent | 1,008 | 24% | 42% | 18% | 16% | 18% |
| 23 July | Norwich North by-election: Labour lose seat vacated by Ian Gibson following the MPs' expenses scandal to the Conservatives on a 16.5% swing. | ||||||
| 21–23 July | YouGov/The People | 2,218 | 25% | 40% | 20% | 16% | 15% |
| 17–19 July | Ipsos MORI | 1,012 | 24% | 40% | 18% | 18% | 16% |
| 17–19 July | Populus/The Times | 1,504 | 26% | 38% | 20% | 16% | 12% |
| 16–17 July | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,956 | 25% | 42% | 18% | 15% | 17% |
| 15–16 July | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,010 | 23% | 38% | 22% | 16% | 15% |
| 10–11 July | ICM/The Guardian | 1,000 | 27% | 41% | 20% | 12% | 14% |
| 1–3 July | YouGov/Fabian Society | 2,001 | 26% | 39% | 19% | 17% | 13% |
| 26–28 June | ComRes/The Independent | 1,007 | 25% | 36% | 19% | 20% | 11% |
| 24–26 June | YouGov/The People | 2,017 | 24% | 40% | 17% | 19% | 16% |
| 23–25 June | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,233 | 25% | 38% | 18% | 19% | 13% |
| 19–21 June | Ipsos MORI | 1,004 | 21% | 38% | 19% | 23% | 17% |
| 17–18 June | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,012 | 22% | 39% | 18% | 21% | 17% |
| 10–17 June | Harris Interative/Metro | 2,081 | 20% | 35% | 16% | 29% | 15% |
| 12–14 June | Ipsos MORI/UNISON | 1,252 | 25% | 39% | 19% | 17% | 14% |
| 12–14 June | ICM/The Guardian | 1,006 | 27% | 39% | 18% | 15% | 12% |
| 11–12 June | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,902 | 24% | 40% | 18% | 19% | 16% |
| 9–10 June | Populus/The Times | 1,001 | 24% | 36% | 19% | 21% | 12% |
| 8 June | European Parliament election: Labour fall into third place in the popular vote behind Conservatives and UKIP. National vote shares: Conservatives 27% (25 seats, +1), UKIP 16% (13 seats, +1), Labour 15% (13 seats, −5), Liberal Democrats 14% (11 seats, +1), Others 28%. | ||||||
| 5–7 June | ComRes/The Independent | 1,001 | 22% | 38% | 20% | 20% | 16% |
| 5 June | Local elections: Labour lose control of all their county councils. National vote shares: Conservatives 38%, Liberal Democrats 28%, Labour 23%. In the aftermath of these results, Gordon Brown reshuffles his cabinet. | ||||||
| 3 June | Communities and Local Government Secretary Hazel Blears resigns from cabinet in order to help Labour "reconnect" with the people, leading to speculation about the future of PM Gordon Brown. | ||||||
| 2–3 June | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 4,014 | 21% | 37% | 19% | 23% | 16% |
| 2 June | It is revealed that Home Secretary Jacqui Smith and 2 junior ministers are to stand down from government at the forthcoming cabinet reshuffle. | ||||||
| 29–31 May | ComRes/The Independent | 1,005 | 22% | 30% | 18% | 30% | 8% |
| 29–31 May | Ipsos MORI | 1,001 | 18% | 40% | 18% | 24% | 22% |
| 27–29 May | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 5,016 | 22% | 39% | 18% | 21% | 17% |
| 27–28 May | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,013 | 22% | 40% | 25% | 13% | 15% over LD |
| 27–28 May | Populus/The Times | 1,001 | 21% | 41% | 15% | 23% | 20% |
| 19–20 May | Populus/ITV News | 1,000 | 27% | 39% | 17% | 18% | 12% |
| 15–17 May | ICM/The Guardian | 1,002 | 28% | 39% | 20% | 14% | 11% |
| 17 MayP | BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] | Unknown[11] | 20% | 42% | 15% | 23% | 22% |
| 14–16 May | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,235 | 23% | 39% | 19% | 19% | 16% |
| 13–14 May | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,010 | 21% | 40% | 18% | 21% | 19% |
| 13–14 May | YouGov/The Sun | 1,814 | 22% | 41% | 19% | 18% | 19% |
| 8–10 May | Populus/The Times | 1,504 | 26% | 39% | 22% | 13% | 13% |
| 8–9 May | BPIX/Mail on Sunday[11] | Unknown[11] | 23% | 45% | 17% | 15% | 22% |
| 8 May | The Daily Telegraph begins publishing full details of MPs' expenses | ||||||
| 7–8 May | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,209 | 27% | 43% | 18% | 12% | 16% |
| 24–26 April | ComRes/The Independent | 1,003 | 26% | 45% | 17% | 12% | 19% |
| 23–24 April | YouGov/Sunday People | 1,855 | 27% | 45% | 17% | 12% | 18% |
| 22–23 April | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,896 | 27% | 45% | 18% | 10% | 18% |
| 22 April | The government unveils its budget, including the introduction of a 50% tax rate and a large increase in public borrowing | ||||||
| 17–19 April | Ipsos MORI | 1,011 | 28% | 41% | 22% | 9% | 13% |
| 17–19 April | ICM/The Guardian | 1,005 | 30% | 40% | 19% | 11% | 10% |
| 16–18 April | BPIX/The Mail on Sunday[11] | 1,889 | 26% | 45% | 17% | 12% | 19% |
| 15–16 April | Marketing Sciences/Sunday Telegraph | 1,007 | 26% | 43% | 21% | 10% | 17% |
| 12 April | Gordon Brown's aide Damian McBride resigns after it is revealed he wrote a series of emails proposing that false allegations be made about the private lives of several Tory MPs. | ||||||
| 3–5 April | Populus/The Times | 1,512 | 30% | 43% | 18% | 9% | 13% |
| 3–4 April | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,125 | 34% | 41% | 16% | 10% | 7% |
| 2 April | G-20 Leaders' Summit held in London and hosted by Gordon Brown US$1.1 trillion package announced to stimulate global economic growth | ||||||
| 27–29 March | ComRes/The Independent | 1,002 | 28% | 40% | 18% | 14% | 12% |
| 25–26 March | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,003 | 31% | 44% | 18% | 8% | 13% |
| 24–26 March | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,104 | 31% | 41% | 17% | 11% | 10% |
| 18–19 March | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,002 | 30% | 41% | 17% | 12% | 11% |
| 13–15 March | ICM/The Guardian | 1,004 | 30% | 42% | 20% | 8% | 12% |
| 13–15 March | Ipsos MORI | 1,007 | 32% | 42% | 14% | 11% | 10% |
| 12–13 March | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,840 | 31% | 41% | 17% | 11% | 10% |
| 6–8 March | Populus/The Times | 1,504 | 30% | 42% | 19% | 9% | 12% |
| 27 Feb-1 Mar | ComRes/The Independent | 1,006 | 28% | 44% | 17% | 12% | 16% |
| 25 Feb | David Cameron's disabled elder son, Ivan, dies aged 6 | ||||||
| 24–26 Feb | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,063 | 31% | 41% | 15% | 12% | 10% |
| 20–22 Feb | ICM/The Guardian | 1,004 | 30% | 42% | 18% | 10% | 12% |
| 13–15 Feb | Ipsos MORI | 1,001 | 28% | 48% | 17% | 7% | 20% |
| 12–13 Feb | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,711 | 32% | 44% | 14% | 10% | 12% |
| 11–12 Feb | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,002 | 25% | 41% | 22% | 12% | 16% |
| 6–8 Feb | Populus/The Times | 1,504 | 28% | 42% | 18% | 12% | 14% |
| 4–5 Feb | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,010 | 28% | 40% | 22% | 10% | 12% |
| 27–29 Jan | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,338 | 32% | 43% | 16% | 10% | 11% |
| 28 Jan | Hundreds of workers commence wildcat strikes at the Lindsey Oil Refinery in protest of contracts awarded to foreign companies at a time of high local levels of unemployment | ||||||
| 23–25 Jan | ICM/The Guardian | 1,003 | 32% | 44% | 16% | 8% | 12% |
| 23 Jan | The United Kingdom officially enters recession for the first time in 18 years | ||||||
| 21–22 Jan | ComRes/The Independent | 1,012 | 28% | 43% | 16% | 13% | 15% |
| 16–18 Jan | Ipsos MORI | 1,005 | 30% | 44% | 17% | 9% | 14% |
| 15–16 Jan | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,077 | 32% | 45% | 14% | 9% | 13% |
| 15 Jan | The Government announces that the controversial third runway at Heathrow airport will be built | ||||||
| 14–15 Jan | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,009 | 32% | 41% | 15% | 12% | 9% |
| 9–11 Jan | Populus/The Times | 1,500 | 33% | 43% | 15% | 9% | 10% |
| 7–8 Jan | YouGov/The Sun | 1,835 | 34% | 41% | 15% | 10% | 7% |
2008
| Date(s) Conducted | Polling Organisation/Client | Sample Size | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrats | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19–21 Dec | ComRes/The Independent | 1,000 | 34% | 39% | 16% | 11% | 5% |
| 16–18 Dec | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,241 | 35% | 42% | 14% | 9% | 7% |
| 12–14 Dec | Ipsos MORI | 1,000 | 35% | 39% | 15% | 11% | 4% |
| 12–14 Dec | ICM/The Guardian | 1,003 | 33% | 38% | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| 11–12 Dec | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,098 | 35% | 41% | 15% | 10% | 6% |
| 10–11 Dec | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,003 | 36% | 37% | 14% | 12% | 1% |
| 10–11 Dec | Ipsos MORI | 1,007 | 36% | 41% | 11% | 12% | 5% |
| 5–7 Dec | Populus/The Times | 1,505 | 35% | 39% | 17% | 9% | 4% |
| 28–30 Nov | ComRes/The Independent | 1,005 | 36% | 37% | 17% | 10% | 1% |
| 27–28 Nov | Ipsos MORI/The Observer | 1,017 | 32% | 43% | 15% | 10% | 11% |
| 25–26 Nov | ICM/The Guardian | 1,027 | 30% | 45% | 18% | 7% | 15% |
| 27 Nov | Conservative MP Damian Green is arrested over alleged leaks of Home Office information, prompting a widespread row over the circumstances surrounding his arrest | ||||||
| 24–25 Nov | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,556 | 36% | 40% | 14% | 10% | 4% |
| 24 Nov | 2008 Pre-Budget Report released, including a temporary cut in VAT to 15%, and the introduction of a new 45% income tax band from 2011 | ||||||
| 19–20 Nov | ICM/Sunday Mirror | 1,010 | 31% | 42% | 19% | 8% | 11% |
| 14–16 Nov | Ipsos MORI | 1,002 | 37% | 40% | 12% | 11% | 3% |
| 13–14 Nov | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,080 | 36% | 41% | 14% | 10% | 5% |
| 12–13 Nov | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,010 | 32% | 43% | 12% | 13% | 11% |
| 7–9 Nov | Populus/The Times | 1,503 | 35% | 41% | 16% | 8% | 6% |
| 5–6 Nov | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,005 | 30% | 43% | 18% | 9% | 13% |
| 6 Nov | Glenrothes by-election: Labour unexpectedly hold seat with a 6,737 majority. Bank of England cuts interest rates by 1.5% to 3%. | ||||||
| 2 NovP | BPIX[11] | ? | 31% | 45% | 13% | 11% | 14% |
| 27–29 Oct | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,271 | 33% | 42% | 15% | 10% | 9% |
| 24–26 Oct | ComRes/The Independent | 1,001 | 31% | 39% | 16% | 14% | 8% |
| 17–19 Oct | Ipsos MORI | 1,004 | 30% | 45% | 14% | 11% | 15% |
| 17–19 Oct | ICM/The Guardian | 1,007 | 30% | 42% | 21% | 7% | 12% |
| 16–18 Oct | BPIX[11] | 2,046 | 30% | 46% | 13% | 11% | 16% |
| 15–17 Oct | YouGov/Daily Mirror | 2,029 | 34% | 42% | 14% | 10% | 8% |
| 15–16 Oct | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,005 | 31% | 40% | 16% | 14% | 9% |
| 9–10 Oct | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,941 | 33% | 43% | 14% | 10% | 10% |
| 8 Oct | Government announce £500bn bank rescue plan amid the ongoing global financial crisis | ||||||
| 3–5 Oct | Populus/The Times | 1,503 | 30% | 45% | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| 1–3 Oct | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,048 | 31% | 45% | 15% | 9% | 14% |
| 1 Oct | David Cameron makes his speech to the Conservative conference | ||||||
| 26–28 Sep | ComRes/The Independent | 1,017 | 29% | 41% | 18% | 12% | 12% |
| 24–26 Sep | BPIX[11] | 2,020 | 31% | 43% | 17% | 9% | 12% |
| 24–25 Sep | ICM/The Guardian | 1,012 | 32% | 41% | 18% | 9% | 9% |
| 23–24 Sep | YouGov/The Sun | 1,536 | 31% | 41% | 16% | 12% | 10% |
| 23 Sep | Gordon Brown delivers his keynote speech to Labour Conference | ||||||
| 17–18 Sep | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,010 | 27% | 39% | 21% | 12% | 12% |
| 17–19 Sep | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,227 | 24% | 44% | 20% | 12% | 20% |
| 17 Sep | Nick Clegg delivers his speech to Liberal Democrat conference | ||||||
| 12–14 Sep | Ipsos MORI | 1,017 | 24% | 52% | 12% | 12% | 28% |
| 10–12 Sep | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,161 | 27% | 46% | 16% | 11% | 19% |
| 3–4 Sep | ComRes/The Independent | 1,013 | 25% | 44% | 17% | 14% | 19% |
| 29–31 Aug | Populus/The Times | 1,506 | 27% | 43% | 18% | 12% | 16% |
| 26–27 Aug | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,267 | 26% | 45% | 16% | 13% | 19% |
| 20–21 Aug | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,014 | 25% | 46% | 16% | 13% | 21% |
| 15–17 Aug | ICM/The Guardian | 1,002 | 29% | 44% | 19% | 8% | 15% |
| 15–17 Aug | Ipsos MORI | 1,005 | 24% | 48% | 16% | 12% | 24% |
| 14–15 Aug | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,745 | 25% | 45% | 18% | 12% | 20% |
| 6–8 Aug | YouGov/News of the World | 2,031 | 26% | 46% | 17% | 11% | 20% |
| 31 Jul – 2 Aug | BPIX[11] | 1,333 | 24% | 47% | 16% | 13% | 23% |
| 30 Jul – 1 Aug | ICM/Sunday Express | 1,001 | 29% | 45% | 16% | 10% | 16% |
| 29–31 July | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,949 | 25% | 47% | 16% | 12% | 22% |
| 25–27 July | Populus/The Times | 1,002 | 27% | 43% | 18% | 12% | 16% |
| 23–25 July | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,120 | 26% | 45% | 17% | 12% | 19% |
| 23–24 July | ComRes/The Independent | 1,021 | 24% | 46% | 18% | 12% | 22% |
| 24 July | Glasgow East by-election: Labour lose their 3rd safest Scottish seat to the SNP on a 22.5% swing | ||||||
| 18–20 July | Ipsos MORI | 1,016 | 27% | 47% | 15% | 11% | 20% |
| 18–20 July | ICM/The Guardian | 1,007 | 28% | 43% | 19% | 10% | 15% |
| 16–17 July | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,016 | 24% | 45% | 16% | 15% | 21% |
| 10–11 July | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,832 | 25% | 47% | 16% | 12% | 22% |
| 4–6 July | Populus/The Times | 1,507 | 28% | 41% | 19% | 12% | 13% |
| 25–26 June | ComRes/The Independent | 1,007 | 25% | 46% | 18% | 11% | 21% |
| 23–25 June | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,163 | 28% | 46% | 15% | 11% | 18% |
| 26 June | Henley by-election: Conservatives hold Boris Johnson's former seat, whilst Labour fall to fifth place behind Green Party and BNP | ||||||
| 20–22 June | ICM/The Guardian | 1,000 | 25% | 45% | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| 18–20 June | BPIX[11] | 2,385 | 26% | 49% | 14% | 11% | 23% |
| 13–15 June | Ipsos MORI | 1,012 | 28% | 45% | 16% | 11% | 17% |
| 11–12 June | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,012 | 26% | 44% | 17% | 13% | 18% |
| 12–13 June | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,769 | 25% | 47% | 18% | 10% | 22% |
| 6–8 June | Populus/The Times | 1,508 | 25% | 45% | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| 4–5 June | ICM/The Sunday Telegraph | 1,023 | 26% | 42% | 21% | 11% | 16% |
| 30 May-1 June | ComRes/The Independent | 1,006 | 30% | 44% | 16% | 10% | 14% |
| 27–29 May | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,241 | 23% | 47% | 18% | 12% | 24% |
| 22 May | Crewe and Nantwich by-election: Conservatives gain seat from Labour with a 17% swing | ||||||
| 16–18 May | ICM/The Guardian | 1,008 | 27% | 41% | 22% | 10% | 14% |
| 15–16 May | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,854 | 25% | 45% | 18% | 12% | 20% |
| 14–15 May | ComRes/The Independent on Sunday | 1,004 | 26% | 43% | 19% | 12% | 17% |
| 7–8 May | YouGov/The Sun | 1,571 | 23% | 49% | 17% | 11% | 26% |
| 2–4 May | Populus/The Times | 1,509 | 29% | 40% | 19% | 11% | 11% |
| 1 May | Local elections held across England & Wales in which Labour falls to 3rd place in the popular vote Labour loses London Mayoralty to the Conservatives | ||||||
| 25–27 Apr | ComRes/The Independent | 1,005 | 26% | 40% | 20% | 14% | 14% |
| 23–24 Apr | ICM/The Sunday Telegraph | 1,010 | 29% | 39% | 20% | 12% | 10% |
| 21–23 Apr | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,073 | 26% | 44% | 17% | 13% | 18% |
| 17–22 Apr | Ipsos-MORI/The Observer | 1,059 | 31% | 40% | 19% | 10% | 9% |
| 18–20 Apr | ICM/The Gurdian | 1,000 | 34% | 39% | 19% | 8% | 5% |
| 16–17 Apr | Populus/Sunday Mirror | 1,006 | 30% | 40% | 19% | 11% | 10% |
| 10–11 Apr | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,755 | 28% | 44% | 17% | 11% | 16% |
| 8–10 Apr | Populus/The Times | 1,502 | 33% | 39% | 17% | 6% | 6% |
| 2–3 Apr | ICM/The Sunday Telegraph | 1,010 | 32% | 43% | 18% | 7% | 11% |
| 28–30 Mar | ComRes/The Independent | 1,004 | 31% | 38% | 17% | 14% | 7% |
| 25–27 Mar | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,926 | 29% | 43% | 17% | 11% | 14% |
| 13–18 Mar | Ipsos MORI | 1,983 | 35% | 40% | 18% | 7% | 5% |
| 14–16 Mar | ICM/The Guardian | 1,003 | 29% | 42% | 21% | 8% | 13% |
| 13–14 Mar | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,311 | 27% | 43% | 16% | 13% | 16% |
| 12–13 Mar | ICM/News of the World | 1,002 | 31% | 40% | 20% | 9% | 9% |
| 12 Mar | Alistair Darling delivers his first budget as Chancellor | ||||||
| 7–9 Mar | Populus/The Times | 1,502 | 34% | 37% | 19% | 10% | 3% |
| 25–27 Feb | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,011 | 33% | 40% | 16% | 11% | 7% |
| 21–26 Feb | Ipsos MORI | 2,063 | 37% | 39% | 16% | 8% | 2% |
| 22–24 Feb | ComRes/The Independent | 1,010 | 30% | 41% | 17% | 12% | 11% |
| 18–20 Feb | YouGov/The Economist | 2,118 | 34% | 40% | 16% | 11% | 6% |
| 15–17 Feb | ICM/The Guardian | 1,003 | 34% | 37% | 21% | 8% | 3% |
| 17 Feb | The Government nationalises troubled bank Northern Rock | ||||||
| 14–15 Feb | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,469 | 32% | 41% | 16% | 11% | 9% |
| 1–3 Feb | Populus/The Times | 1,504 | 31% | 40% | 17% | 12% | 9% |
| 30–31 Jan | ICM/The Sunday Telegraph | 1,012 | 32% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 5% |
| 25–27 Jan | ComRes/The Independent | 1,003 | 30% | 38% | 17% | 15% | 8% |
| 24 Jan | Peter Hain resigns as Work and Pensions and Wales Secretary | ||||||
| 21–23 Jan | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,992 | 33% | 41% | 16% | 10% | 8% |
| 17–22 Jan | Ipsos MORI | 2,045 | 38% | 37% | 16% | 9% | 1% |
| 18–20 Jan | ICM/The Guardian | 1,009 | 35% | 37% | 20% | 8% | 2% |
| 10–11 Jan | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,139 | 33% | 43% | 14% | 11% | 10% |
| 9–10 Jan | ICM/The Sunday Telegraph | 1,011 | 33% | 40% | 18% | 9% | 7% |
| 9–10 Jan | Ipsos MORI/The Sun | 1,006 | 32% | 42% | 15% | 11% | 10% |
| 4–6 Jan | Populus/The Times | 1,509 | 33% | 37% | 19% | 11% | 4% |
2007
| Date(s) Conducted | Polling Organisation/Client | Sample Size | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrats | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18–19 Dec | ICM/The Guardian | 1,034 | 34% | 39% | 18% | 9% | 5% |
| 17–19 Dec | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,060 | 31% | 43% | 16% | 11% | 12% |
| 18 Dec | Nick Clegg wins Liberal Democrat leadership election | ||||||
| 14–16 Dec | ComRes/The Independent | 1,004 | 30% | 41% | 16% | 12% | 11% |
| 13–14 Dec | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,481 | 32% | 45% | 14% | 10% | 13% |
| 7–9 Dec | Populus/The Times | 1,506 | 32% | 40% | 16% | 11% | 8% |
| 29 Nov-7 Dec | Ipsos MORI | 1,859 | 35% | 42% | 14% | 9% | 7% |
| 28–29 Nov | ICM/News of the World | 1,011 | 30% | 41% | 19% | 10% | 11% |
| 26–29 Nov | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 4,004 | 32% | 43% | 14% | 11% | 11% |
| 23–27 Nov | Ipsos MORI | 1,933 | 32% | 41% | 17% | 10% | 9% |
| 23–25 Nov | ComRes/The Independent | 1,009 | 27% | 41% | 18% | 15% | 13% |
| 21–22 Nov | ICM/The Guardian | 1,005 | 31% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 6% |
| 21–22 Nov | YouGov/Channel 4 News | 1,600 | 32% | 41% | 14% | 13% | 9% |
| 20 Nov | Child Benefit Data Scandal: Revenue & Customs confirm they have lost two discs containing bank details of 7.25m child benefit claimants | ||||||
| 14–16 Nov | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,983 | 35% | 41% | 13% | 11% | 6% |
| 8–10 Nov | ICM/Sunday Express | 1,001 | 35% | 43% | 15% | 7% | 8% |
| 2–4 Nov | Populus/The Times | 1,503 | 37% | 36% | 16% | 11% | 1% |
| 31 Oct-1 Nov | Ipsos MORI/The Sun | 1,013 | 35% | 40% | 13% | 12% | 5% |
| 26–28 Oct | ICM/The Guardian | 1,011 | 35% | 40% | 18% | 7% | 5% |
| 26–28 Oct | ComRes/The Independent | 1,002 | 33% | 42% | 15% | 10% | 8% |
| 22–24 Oct | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,105 | 38% | 41% | 11% | 10% | 3% |
| 18–23 Oct | Ipsos MORI/The Observer | 1,987 | 41% | 40% | 13% | 6% | 1% |
| 15 Oct | Sir Menzies Campbell resigns as Liberal Democrat leader | ||||||
| 10–11 Oct | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,010 | 36% | 43% | 14% | 8% | 7% |
| 10 Oct | Ipsos MORI/The Sun | 1,007 | 38% | 41% | 11% | 10% | 3% |
| 5–6 Oct | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,757 | 38% | 41% | 11% | 10% | 3% |
| 5–7 Oct | Populus/The Times | 1,008 | 40% | 38% | 12% | 10% | 2% |
| 6 Oct | After weeks of speculation, Gordon Brown announces he will not be calling a general election "in the next period" | ||||||
| 3–4 Oct | YouGov/Channel 4 News | 1,741 | 40% | 36% | 13% | 11% | 4% |
| 3–4 Oct | ICM/The Guardian | 1,008 | 38% | 38% | 16% | 8% | 0% |
| 2–3 Oct | Populus/The Times | 1,000 | 39% | 36% | 15% | 10% | 3% |
| 3 Oct | David Cameron delivers his speech to Conservative conference | ||||||
| 26–28 Sep | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,165 | 43% | 32% | 15% | 10% | 11% |
| 27–28 Sep | Ipsos MORI/The Observer | 1,000 | 41% | 34% | 16% | 9% | 7% |
| 26–27 Sep | Populus/The Times | 1,002 | 41% | 31% | 17% | 10% | 10% |
| 20–26 Sep | Ipsos MORI | 1,964 | 44% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 13% |
| 24–25 Sep | YouGov/Channel 4 News | 1,341 | 44% | 33% | 13% | 11% | 11% |
| 24 Sep | Gordon Brown delivers first conference speech as Labour leader | ||||||
| 20–22 Sep | Ipsos MORI/The Sun | 1,009 | 42% | 34% | 14% | 10% | 8% |
| 19–21 Sep | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,085 | 39% | 33% | 16% | 12% | 6% |
| 19–20 Sep | ICM/Sunday Mirror | 1,029 | 39% | 33% | 19% | 9% | 6% |
| 13–16 Sep | ICM/The Guardian | 1,005 | 40% | 32% | 20% | 8% | 8% |
| 13–14 Sep | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,942 | 39% | 34% | 15% | 12% | 5% |
| 11–12 Sep | ComRes/The Independent | 1,005 | 37% | 34% | 15% | 14% | 3% |
| 31 Aug-2 Sep | Populus/The Times | 1,506 | 37% | 36% | 18% | 9% | 1% |
| 29–31 Aug | YouGov/GMTV | 2,154 | 38% | 35% | 15% | 12% | 3% |
| 29–30 Aug | ComRes/The Independent | 1,016 | 35% | 36% | 14% | 14% | 1% |
| 23–29 Aug | Ipsos MORI/The Sun | 1,941 | 41% | 36% | 16% | 7% | 5% |
| 25–28 Aug | Populus/Conservative Party | 530 | 37% | 36% | 16% | 10% | 1% |
| 24–28 Aug | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,266 | 41% | 33% | 14% | 12% | 8% |
| 22–23 Aug | ICM/The Guardian | 1,016 | 39% | 34% | 18% | 9% | 5% |
| 9–10 Aug | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,966 | 42% | 32% | 14% | 12% | 10% |
| 8–10 Aug | ICM/Sunday Mirror | 1,007 | 39% | 33% | 18% | 10% | 6% |
| 8–9 Aug | Ipsos MORI/The Sun | 531 | 38% | 33% | 15% | 14% | 5% |
| 27–29 July | Populus/The Times | 1,511 | 39% | 33% | 15% | 13% | 6% |
| 27–29 July | Communicate/The Independent | 1,006 | 37% | 34% | 16% | 14% | 3% |
| 23–25 July | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,877 | 41% | 32% | 16% | 11% | 9% |
| 20–22 July | ICM/The Guardian | 1,005 | 38% | 32% | 20% | 10% | 6% |
| 19–20 July | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,664 | 40% | 33% | 15% | 12% | 7% |
| 12–17 July | Ipsos MORI/The Observer | 1,919 | 41% | 35% | 15% | 9% | 6% |
| 4–5 July | ICM/Sunday Mirror | 1,006 | 37% | 35% | 17% | 10% | 2% |
| 1 July | Populus/The Times | 1,504 | 37% | 34% | 18% | 11% | 3% |
| 30 June | Glasgow Airport Terrorist Attack | ||||||
| 28–29 June | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,886 | 38% | 35% | 15% | 12% | 3% |
| 29 June | Two cars bombs are discovered in central London | ||||||
| 27–28 June | ICM/The Guardian | 1,005 | 39% | 35% | 18% | 8% | 4% |
| 27 June | Gordon Brown is appointed Prime Minister | ||||||
| 22–24 June | Communicate/The Independent | 1,005 | 32% | 37% | 18% | 13% | 5% |
| 14–20 June | Ipsos MORI/The Observer | 1,970 | 39% | 36% | 15% | 10% | 3% |
| 14–15 June | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,753 | 35% | 37% | 14% | 14% | 2% |
| 1–3 June | Populus | 1,503 | 33% | 36% | 17% | 14% | 3% |
| 30–31 May | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,014 | 32% | 37% | 21% | 10% | 5% |
| 25–28 May | Communicate/The Independent | 1,003 | 31% | 35% | 19% | 15% | 4% |
| 21–23 May | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,050 | 33% | 39% | 15% | 13% | 6% |
| 18–20 May | ICM/The Guardian | 1,003 | 32% | 34% | 21% | 12% | 2% |
| 11–13 May | Populus/The Times | 1,504 | 33% | 37% | 17% | 13% | 4% |
| 10–11 May | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,962 | 34% | 38% | 15% | 14% | 4% |
| 10 May | Tony Blair announces his resignation as Labour Party leader and Prime Minister | ||||||
| 3 May | Election 2007: Labour lose Scottish Parliament election to the SNP | ||||||
| 23–25 Apr | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,019 | 32% | 37% | 18% | 14% | 5% |
| 19–25 Apr | Ipsos MORI/The Observer | 1,163 | 31% | 38% | 20% | 11% | 7% |
| 20–22 Apr | ICM/The Guardian | 1,005 | 30% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 7% |
| 13–15 Apr | Populus/The Times | 1,503 | 29% | 37% | 20% | 14% | 8% |
| 4–5 Apr | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,218 | 31% | 39% | 16% | 14% | 8% |
| 26–28 Mar | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,042 | 32% | 39% | 17% | 13% | 7% |
| 23–25 Mar | Communicate | 1,002 | 31% | 35% | 20% | 14% | 4% |
| 21–22 Mar | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,752 | 31% | 39% | 16% | 14% | 8% |
| 16–18 Mar | ICM/The Guardian | 1,011 | 31% | 41% | 18% | 10% | 10% |
| 15–16 Mar | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,897 | 32% | 38% | 16% | 14% | 6% |
| 9–15 Mar | Ipsos MORI | 1,983 | 33% | 41% | 17% | 9% | 8% |
| 2–4 Mar | Populus/The Times | 1,509 | 30% | 38% | 18% | 14% | 8% |
| 23–25 Feb | Communicate | 1,001 | 29% | 40% | 17% | 14% | 11% |
| 19–21 Feb | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,292 | 32% | 37% | 17% | 14% | 5% |
| 16–18 Feb | ICM/The Guardian | 1,000 | 31% | 40% | 19% | 10% | 9% |
| 8–9 Feb | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,019 | 32% | 37% | 18% | 14% | 5% |
| 2–4 Feb | Populus/The Times | 1,509 | 33% | 36% | 19% | 12% | 3% |
| 19–29 Jan | Ipsos MORI | 949 | 35% | 39% | 19% | 7% | 4% |
| 26–28 Jan | Communicate | 1,008 | 29% | 34% | 21% | 16% | 5% |
| 22–24 Jan | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,245 | 31% | 38% | 18% | 13% | 7% |
| 19–21 Jan | ICM/The Guardian | 1,004 | 31% | 37% | 23% | 9% | 6% |
| 5–7 Jan | Populus/The Times | 1,507 | 32% | 39% | 18% | 11% | 7% |
2006
| Date(s) Conducted | Polling Organisation/Client | Sample Size | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrats | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–22 Dec | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,918 | 32% | 37% | 15% | 15% | 5% |
| 18–20 Dec | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,874 | 33% | 37% | 17% | 13% | 4% |
| 19–20 Dec | Communicate | 1,009 | 37% | 36% | 14% | 14% | 1% |
| 15–17 Dec | ICM/The Guardian | 1,006 | 32% | 40% | 18% | 10% | 8% |
| 9–12 Dec | Ipsos MORI | 1,938 | 36% | 37% | 18% | 9% | 1% |
| 8–10 Dec | Populus/The Times | 1,513 | 33% | 34% | 19% | 14% | 1% |
| 28–30 Nov | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,979 | 32% | 37% | 16% | 15% | 5% |
| 29–30 Nov | ICM/News of the World | 1,006 | 31% | 39% | 20% | 10% | 8% |
| 24–26 Nov | Communicate | 1,004 | 36% | 34% | 17% | 12% | 2% |
| 17–19 Nov | ICM/The Guardian | 1,000 | 32% | 37% | 22% | 9% | 5% |
| 9–14 Nov | Ipsos MORI | 1,115 | 33% | 35% | 20% | 12% | 2% |
| 3–5 Nov | Populus/The Times | 1,510 | 33% | 36% | 20% | 11% | 3% |
| 24–26 Oct | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,722 | 32% | 39% | 16% | 13% | 7% |
| 20–22 Oct | Communicate | 977 | 32% | 38% | 14% | 15% | 6% |
| 20–22 Oct | ICM/The Guardian | 1,019 | 29% | 39% | 22% | 9% | 10% |
| 12–16 Oct | Ipsos MORI/Financial Times | 1,113 | 37% | 35% | 18% | 10% | 2% |
| 6–8 Oct | Populus/The Times | 1,515 | 35% | 36% | 18% | 11% | 1% |
| 4–5 Oct | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,005 | 32% | 38% | 20% | 10% | 6% |
| 28–30 Sep | ICM/Sunday Mirror | 1,029 | 35% | 36% | 19% | 11% | 1% |
| 27–29 Sep | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,849 | 36% | 36% | 16% | 12% | 0% |
| 21–22 Sep | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,546 | 33% | 37% | 18% | 12% | 4% |
| 19–22 Sep | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,733 | 31% | 38% | 18% | 13% | 7% |
| 19–20 Sep | ICM/The Guardian | 1,066 | 32% | 36% | 22% | 10% | 4% |
| 13–14 Sep | ICM/Sunday Mirror | 1,003 | 33% | 37% | 21% | 8% | 4% |
| 13–14 Sep | YouGov/The Sun | 1,519 | 31% | 38% | 18% | 14% | 7% |
| 6–7 Sep | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,504 | 32% | 40% | 17% | 11% | 8% |
| 31 Aug – 6 Sep | Ipsos MORI/Sunday Times | 1,186 | 36% | 35% | 19% | 10% | 1% |
| 1–3 Sep | Populus/The Times | 1,504 | 32% | 36% | 20% | 13% | 4% |
| 22–24 Aug | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,757 | 31% | 38% | 18% | 13% | 7% |
| 18–20 Aug | ICM/The Guardian | 1,007 | 31% | 40% | 22% | 8% | 9% |
| 10 Aug | Government and Police reveal details of the transatlantic aircraft plot | ||||||
| 24–26 July | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,633 | 33% | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% |
| 20–24 July | Ipsos MORI | 1,897 | 32% | 36% | 24% | 8% | 4% |
| 21–23 July | ICM/The Guardian | 1,001 | 35% | 39% | 17% | 9% | 4% |
| 7–9 July | Populus/The Times | 1,512 | 34% | 36% | 19% | 11% | 2% |
| 29 June | Blaenau Gwent by-election: Independents retain seat Bromley & Chiselhurst by-election: Conservatives hold safe seat but see their majority fall by 12,709 | ||||||
| 28–29 June | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,003 | 35% | 36% | 18% | 11% | 1% |
| 26–28 June | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,962 | 33% | 39% | 18% | 10% | 6% |
| 22–26 June | Ipsos MORI | 1,931 | 33% | 36% | 21% | 10% | 3% |
| 21–23 June | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,009 | 32% | 39% | 17% | 12% | 7% |
| 16–18 June | ICM/The Guardian | 1,005 | 32% | 37% | 21% | 9% | 5% |
| 8–12 June | Ipsos MORI/The Observer | 1,975 | 34% | 41% | 18% | 7% | 7% |
| 2–4 June | Populus/The Times | 1,505 | 34% | 37% | 18% | 11% | 3% |
| 25–30 May | Ipsos MORI | 1,984 | 31% | 41% | 18% | 10% | 10% |
| 23–25 May | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,102 | 32% | 38% | 16% | 14% | 6% |
| 19–21 May | ICM/The Guardian | 1,001 | 34% | 38% | 20% | 8% | 4% |
| 8–9 May | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,910 | 31% | 37% | 17% | 15% | 6% |
| 5–7 May | Populus/The Times | 1,516 | 30% | 38% | 20% | 11% | 8% |
| 5 May | Amid poor local election results, Tony Blair reshuffles his cabinet | ||||||
| 4 May | 2006 Local Elections: Labour suffer significant losses across the country | ||||||
| 27 Apr-2 May | Ipsos MORI/Financial Times | 1,078 | 32% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 4% |
| 27–28 Apr | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,930 | 32% | 35% | 18% | 15% | 3% |
| 21–23 Apr | ICM/The Guardian | 1,006 | 32% | 34% | 24% | 10% | 2% |
| 20–22 Apr | Ipsos MORI/The Sun | 1,006 | 30% | 30% | 25% | 15% | 0% |
| 18–20 Apr | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,075 | 35% | 33% | 17% | 15% | 2% |
| 31 Mar-2 Apr | Populus/The Times | 1,503 | 36% | 34% | 21% | 10% | 2% |
| 27–29 Mar | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,873 | 36% | 36% | 18% | 10% | 0% |
| 16–21 Mar | Ipsos MORI | 1,155 | 39% | 34% | 19% | 8% | 5% |
| 16–18 Mar | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,003 | 37% | 33% | 21% | 9% | 4% |
| 16–17 Mar | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,811 | 35% | 38% | 19% | 8% | 3% |
| 10–12 Mar | ICM/The Guardian | 1,006 | 37% | 34% | 21% | 8% | 3% |
| 3–5 Mar | Populus/The Times | 1,509 | 35% | 35% | 20% | 9% | 0% |
| 2 Mar | Sir Menzies Campbell elected leader of the Liberal Democrats | ||||||
| 21–22 Feb | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,019 | 36% | 38% | 18% | 9% | 2% |
| 16–20 Feb | Ipsos MORI/The Sun | 1,143 | 38% | 35% | 20% | 7% | 3% |
| 17–19 Feb | ICM/The Guardian | 1,002 | 34% | 37% | 21% | 8% | 3% |
| 9–10 Feb | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,617 | 39% | 37% | 15% | 10% | 2% |
| 9 Feb | Dunfermline & West Fife by-election: Labour lose Scottish seat to the Liberal Democrats | ||||||
| 3–5 Feb | Populus/The Times | 1,508 | 36% | 37% | 18% | 9% | 1% |
| 24–26 Jan | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,096 | 40% | 39% | 13% | 9% | 1% |
| 19–23 Jan | Ipsos MORI | 1,163 | 38% | 40% | 17% | 5% | 2% |
| 20–22 Jan | ICM/The Guardian | 1,009 | 36% | 37% | 19% | 7% | 1% |
| 12–17 Jan | Ipsos MORI/The Sun | 541 | 39% | 39% | 15% | 7% | 0% |
| 6–8 Jan | Populus/The Times | 1,509 | 39% | 36% | 16% | 9% | 3% |
| 7 Jan | Charles Kennedy resigns as Liberal Democrat leader after it is revealed he has a drink problem | ||||||
2005
| Date(s) Conducted | Polling Organisation/Client | Sample Size | Labour | Conservative | Liberal Democrats | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15–18 Dec | ICM/The Guardian | 1,004 | 36% | 37% | 21% | 7% | 1% |
| 13–15 Dec | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,071 | 36% | 38% | 18% | 8% | 2% |
| 9–12 Dec | MORI/The Observer | 1,000 | 31% | 40% | 20% | 9% | 9% |
| 9–11 Dec | Populus/The Times | 1,521 | 38% | 35% | 19% | 8% | 3% |
| 6–8 Dec | YouGov/Sunday Times | 2,089 | 36% | 37% | 18% | 8% | 1% |
| 7–8 Dec | ICM/The Guardian | 1,003 | 35% | 37% | 21% | 7% | 2% |
| 6 Dec | David Cameron is elected leader of the Conservative Party | ||||||
| 5–6 Dec | YouGov/Sky News | 1,612 | 36% | 36% | 18% | 10% | 0% |
| 22–24 Nov | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,616 | 37% | 35% | 20% | 8% | 2% |
| 17–22 Nov | MORI | 1,089 | 42% | 32% | 19% | 7% | 10% |
| 18–20 Nov | ICM/The Guardian | 1,013 | 38% | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% |
| 9 Nov | House of Commons rejects Government plans that would allow suspected terrorists to be held for 90 days without charge | ||||||
| 4–6 Nov | Populus/The Times | 1,512 | 40% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 8% |
| 2–3 Nov | ICM/Sunday Telegraph | 1,010 | 39% | 33% | 21% | 7% | 6% |
| 25–27 Oct | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 1,947 | 40% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 8% |
| 20–25 Oct | MORI | 1,904 | 40% | 34% | 21% | 5% | 6% |
| 19–20 Oct | ICM/The Guardian | 1,007 | 36% | 33% | 22% | 8% | 3% |
| 7–9 Oct | Populus/The Times | 1,509 | 40% | 30% | 21% | 9% | 10% |
| 5–6 Oct | ICM/News of the World | 1,015 | 38% | 32% | 22% | 8% | 5% |
| 27–29 Sep | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 2,183 | 40% | 32% | 20% | 9% | 8% |
| 22–26 Sep | MORI | 1,132 | 39% | 29% | 25% | 7% | 10% |
| 16–17 Sep | ICM/The Guardian | 1,013 | 40% | 31% | 21% | 8% | 9% |
| 8–9 Sep | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,856 | 37% | 32% | 21% | 10% | 5% |
| 2–4 Sep | Populus/The Times | 1,506 | 37% | 35% | 20% | 8% | 2% |
| 19–24 Aug | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | – | 40% | 33% | 20% | 7% | 7% |
| 11–15 Aug | MORI | 1,191 | 39% | 31% | 24% | 6% | 8% |
| 12–14 Aug | ICM/The Guardian | 1,006 | 38% | 31% | 22% | 9% | 7% |
| 26–28 July | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | – | 40% | 31% | 21% | 8% | 9% |
| 22–24 July | Populus/The Times | 1,506 | 40% | 28% | 22% | 10% | 12% |
| 14–18 July | MORI/The Observer | 1,227 | 41% | 28% | 25% | 6% | 13% |
| 15–17 July | ICM/The Guardian | 1,005 | 39% | 31% | 23% | 7% | 8% |
| 7 July | July 7 Terrorist Attacks: 4 co-ordinated suicide bombers detonate explosives on morning rush hour tube and bus services in London | ||||||
| 6 July | London wins right to host 2012 Summer Olympics | ||||||
| 28–30 June | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | 3,717 | 38% | 33% | 20% | 9% | 5% |
| 16–20 June | MORI | 1,227 | 42% | 29% | 21% | 8% | 13% |
| 17–19 June | ICM/The Guardian | 1,005 | 38% | 31% | 23% | 8% | 7% |
| 24–26 May | YouGov/Daily Telegraph | – | 38% | 31% | 23% | 8% | 7% |
| 19–23 May | MORI/Financial Times | 1,274 | 37% | 30% | 26% | 7% | 7% |
| 5 May | 2005 general election (GB figures)[12] | 27,148,510 | 36.2% | 33.2% | 22.7% | 7.9% | 3% |
See also
- Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election
- Opinion polling for the United Kingdom general election, 2005
- European Parliament election, 2009 (United Kingdom)
- List of political parties in the United Kingdom
Notes
- ↑ Predicting Results UK Polling Report
- ↑ Pollwatch: Election 2010 could be the death knell for first past the post The Guardian, 18 April 2010
- ↑ The Lib Dems surge in Britain Washington Examiner
- ↑ Election 2010: Lib Dem policies targeted by rivals BBC News, 19 April 2010
- ↑ Anthony Wells (10 December 2005). "Tories take the Lead". UKPollingReport. Retrieved 15 March 2010.
- ↑ YouGov show Tory lead cut to 7 points UK Polling Report, 29 January 2010
- ↑ General election 2010: All change for new politics The Guardian, 20 April 2010
- ↑ Election Exit Poll: Tories will be 19 short of majority BBC News, 6 May 2010
- 1 2 "Live coverage – General Election 2010". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Retrieved 6 May 2010.
- ↑ "Parties surprised by exit poll". BBC News. 6 May 2010. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 It should be noted that BPIX is not a member of the British Polling Council, unlike the other main pollsters such as YouGov, ComRes, Populus, Ipsos MORI, and ICM. Therefore, the full details of its polls are not subject to public disclosure.
- ↑ Opinion polling is conducted on a Great Britain basis, and election forecasting also uses GB figures. Northern Ireland, being outside the main party system, is treated separately.
P – The dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out is unknown, therefore the date of publication has been given.
External links
- Ipsos Mori archive of all pollsters' polls
- British Polling Council
- Electoral Calculus
- UK Polling Report Election Guide
- ICM Polls
- Populus Political Polls
- YouGov Political Polls
- ComRes Polls
- Latest polling results and seat projections from Angus Reid Public Opinion
This article is issued from Wikipedia - version of the 12/4/2016. The text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution/Share Alike but additional terms may apply for the media files.