Opinion polling on Scottish independence
This page lists the public opinion polls that have been conducted in relation to Scottish independence. A referendum on the subject was held on 18 September 2014. For the history on the subject itself see Scottish independence.
2014 referendum
Many opinion polls were conducted about Scottish independence before the referendum and then during the campaign.[1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Professor John Curtice stated in January 2012 that polling had shown support for independence at between 32% and 38% of the Scottish population.[8] This had fallen somewhat since the SNP were first elected to become the Scottish Government in 2007.[8] The research also showed, however, that the proportion of the population strongly opposed to independence had also declined.[8] Curtice stated in April 2014 that support for independence had increased since December 2013, although there was disagreement between the polling companies as to the true state of public opinion.[9] Polls in the run-up to the referendum vote showed a closing of the gap, with one poll giving the Yes campaign a 51–49 lead. In the referendum Scotland voted against independence by 55.3% to 44.7%, with an overall turnout of 84.6%.[10][11]
Post-referendum polling
Since the referendum in September 2014, opinion polls have asked how people would vote in a hypothetical second referendum. These polls have been carried out since six weeks after the referendum.[12] Twenty-five opinion polls were conducted in the year after the referendum, with seventeen of them having "No" as the predominant answer, seven having "Yes", and one having an equal proportion of respondents for each opinion.[13] During the period of 18 September 2015 to 18 September 2016 a further twenty-four opinion polls were conducted, of which twenty had "No" as the predominant answer while four had "Yes" as the predominant answer.
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Yes | No | Undecided | Lead | Notes | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24th-29th Nov 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,134 | 38% | 49% | 13% | 11% | ||||
| 28 Sep–4 Oct 2016 | BMG/Herald | 1,010 | 39% | 47% | 15% | 8% | Non-standard referendum question[notes 1] | |||
| 9–15 Sep 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,024 | 44% | 50% | 7% | 6% | ||||
| 5–11 Sep 2016 | Ipsos Mori/STV | 1,000 | 45% | 50% | 5% | 5% | ||||
| 5–10 Sep 2016 | Survation | 1,073 | 42% | 48% | 10% | 6% | ||||
| 10 Aug–4 Sep 2016 | TNS | 1,047 | 41% | 47% | 12% | 6% | ||||
| 29–31 Aug 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,039 | 40% | 46% | 13% | 6% | Excludes 16-17 year olds | |||
| 20–25 Jul 2016 | YouGov | 1,005 | 40% | 45% | 14% | 5% | Excludes 16-17 year olds | |||
| 13 Jul 2016 | Theresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | |||||||||
| 24–28 Jun 2016 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,055 | 47% | 41% | 12% | 6% | ||||
| 25–26 Jun 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 626 | 47% | 44% | 8% | 3% | ||||
| 25 Jun 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,002 | 48% | 41% | 9% | 7% | ||||
| 24 Jun 2016 | David Cameron resigns as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | |||||||||
| 23 Jun 2016 | EU membership referendum, 2016. | |||||||||
| 5 May 2016 | Scottish Parliament election, 2016. | |||||||||
| 2–4 May 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,445 | 41% | 48% | 12% | 7% | ||||
| 23–28 Apr 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,074 | 44% | 49% | 6% | 5% | ||||
| 15–20 Apr 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,005 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | ||||
| 6–15 Apr 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,021 | 45% | 51% | 5% | 6% | ||||
| 7–11 Apr 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,012 | 41% | 49% | 10% | 8% | ||||
| 10–17 Mar 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,051 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | ||||
| 7–9 Mar 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,070 | 40% | 47% | 12% | 7% | ||||
| 25–29 Feb 2016 | Survation/Scottish Daily Mail | 1,022 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | ||||
| 11–16 Feb 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,006 | 42% | 48% | 9% | 6% | ||||
| 1–7 Feb 2016 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,000 | 49% | 45% | 5% | 4% | ||||
| 1–4 Feb 2016 | YouGov/The Times | 1,022 | 43% | 51% | 7% | 8% | ||||
| 8–14 Jan 2016 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,053 | 44% | 50% | 7% | 6% | ||||
| 8–12 Jan 2016 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,029 | 45% | 47% | 8% | 2% | ||||
| 6–13 Nov 2015 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 1,074 | 47% | 49% | 5% | 2% | ||||
| 9–13 Oct 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,026 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | ||||
| 7–10 Sep 2015 | Survation/Daily Mail | 1,010 | 45% | 46% | 9% | 1% | ||||
| 7–10 Sep 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,110 | 45% | 49% | 6% | 4% | ||||
| 4–10 Sep 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,005 | 45% | 51% | 3% | 6% | ||||
| 12 Aug–1 Sep 2015 | TNS | 1,023 | 47% | 42% | 11% | 5% | ||||
| 24–30 Aug 2015 | Ipsos MORI/STV | 1,002 | 53% | 44% | 3% | 9% | ||||
| 3–7 July 2015 | Survation/Daily Mail | 1,084 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | ||||
| 26 Jun–3 Jul 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,002 | 45% | 50% | 5% | 5% | ||||
| 19–21 May 2015 | YouGov/Sunday Post | 1,108 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | ||||
| 7 May 2015 | United Kingdom general election, 2015. | |||||||||
| 3–6 May 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,660 | 44% | 47% | 9% | 3% | ||||
| 29 Apr–1 May 2015 | YouGov/Sunday Times | 1,162 | 43% | 49% | 8% | 6% | ||||
| 22–27 Apr 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,015 | 46% | 47% | 7% | 1% | ||||
| 20–23 Apr 2015 | Panelbase/Sunday Times | 1,044 | 45% | 48% | 7% | 3% | ||||
| 8–9 Apr 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,056 | 46% | 49% | 6% | 3% | ||||
| 13–19 Mar 2015 | ICM/Guardian | 1,002 | 41% | 48% | 11% | 7% | ||||
| 12–17 Mar 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,027 | 45% | 43% | 11% | 2% | ||||
| 10–12 Mar 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,049 | 45% | 48% | 8% | 3% | ||||
| 12–17 Feb 2015 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,011 | 43% | 47% | 10% | 4% | ||||
| 29 Jan–2 Feb 2015 | YouGov/The Times | 1,001 | 49% | 44% | 7% | 5% | ||||
| 9–11 Dec 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 48% | 48% | 4% | Tied | ||||
| 9–11 Dec 2014 | YouGov/The Sun | 1,081 | 48% | 45% | 6% | 3% | ||||
| 27 Nov 2014 | Release of Smith Commission report. | |||||||||
| 19 Nov 2014 | Nicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland. | |||||||||
| 6–13 Nov 2014 | Survation/Daily Record | 1,001 | 44% | 49% | 7% | 5% | ||||
| 30 Oct–5 Nov 2014 | Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland | 982 | 46% | 45% | 8% | 1% | ||||
| 27–30 Oct 2014 | YouGov/The Times | 1,078 | 49% | 45% | 6% | 4% | ||||
| 18 September 2014 | Scottish independence referendum, 2014 results | 3,623,344 | 44.7% | 55.3% | 10.6% | |||||
Historical polling
Three-way polling
During the late 1970s and 1980s, MORI conducted opinion polls on whether Scots wanted full independence, devolution or the status quo. During this period, devolution was the preferred option in each opinion poll, although support for independence increased.
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Independence | Devolution | Status Quo | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Apr 1978 | MORI | 20% | 52% | 25% | 4% |
| March 1979 | MORI | 14% | 42% | 35% | 9% |
| 3 May 1979 | United Kingdom general election, 1979 | ||||
| February 1981 | MORI | 25% | 46% | 30% | 0% |
| May 1981 | MORI | 25% | 50% | 25% | 0% |
| September 1981 | MORI | 23% | 47% | 31% | 0% |
| November 1981 | MORI | 22% | 47% | 26% | 5% |
| February 1982 | MORI | 23% | 53% | 19% | 5% |
| April 1982 | MORI | 22% | 45% | 27% | 6% |
| November 1982 | MORI | 22% | 47% | 26% | 5% |
| March 1983 | MORI | 23% | 48% | 26% | 2% |
| 4 Jun 1983 | MORI | 23% | 51% | 22% | 4% |
| 9 Jun 1983 | United Kingdom general election, 1983 | ||||
| 29 Feb-1 Mar 1984 | MORI | 25% | 45% | 27% | 3% |
| 24-25 Feb 1986 | MORI | 33% | 47% | 14% | 6% |
| 6-7 Mar 1987 | MORI | 32% | 50% | 15% | 3% |
| May 1987 | MORI | 29% | 41% | 25% | 5% |
| 11 Jun 1987 | United Kingdom general election, 1987 | ||||
| April 1988 | MORI | 35% | 42% | 20% | 3% |
Four-way polling
Between 1988 and 1995, MORI polled voters on independence giving four opinions: independence inside the European Economic Community (European Union after 1992), independence outside the organisation, devolution and the status quo.
| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Independence outside the EEC | Independence inside the EEC | Devolution | Status Quo | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-3 Dec 1988 | MORI | 10% | 24% | 46% | 16% | 4% |
| 25-28 Feb 1989 | MORI | 11% | 24% | 42% | 20% | 3% |
| 1-2 Jun 1989 | MORI | 12% | 22% | 49% | 15% | 2% |
| 11-13 Sep 1989 | MORI | 9% | 27% | 44% | 18% | 2% |
| 22-28 Feb 1990 | MORI | 10% | 24% | 44% | 19% | 3% |
| 15-20 May 1990 | MORI | 8% | 29% | 45% | 16% | 2% |
| 14-18 Jun 1990 | MORI | 10% | 28% | 43% | 17% | 2% |
| 19-22 Jul 1990 | MORI | 10% | 27% | 44% | 16% | 3% |
| 16-20 Aug 1990 | MORI | 7% | 31% | 44% | 16% | 2% |
| 19-23 Sep 1990 | MORI | 9% | 28% | 44% | 17% | 2% |
| 18-22 Oct 1990 | MORI | 9% | 30% | 44% | 15% | 2% |
| 15-18 Nov 1990 | MORI | 9% | 28% | 45% | 17% | 1% |
| 29 Nov 1990 | Margaret Thatcher resigns as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom | |||||
| 5-10 Dec 1990 | MORI | 7% | 25% | 49% | 17% | 2% |
| 17-20 Jan 1991 | MORI | 7% | 28% | 42% | 21% | 2% |
| 21-24 Feb 1991 | MORI | 10% | 23% | 45% | 20% | 2% |
| 21-24 Mar 1991 | MORI | 8% | 27% | 42% | 21% | 2% |
| 7-25 Mar 1991 | MORI | 9% | 23% | 51% | 16% | 1% |
| 18-20 Apr 1991 | MORI | 9% | 28% | 42% | 19% | 2% |
| 23-27 May 1991 | MORI | 7% | 26% | 45% | 19% | 3% |
| 20-24 Jun 1991 | MORI | 8% | 26% | 47% | 17% | 2% |
| 18-22 Jul 1991 | MORI | 8% | 28% | 43% | 18% | 3% |
| 22-26 Aug 1991 | MORI | 9% | 26% | 47% | 17% | 1% |
| 19-23 Sep 1991 | MORI | 9% | 26% | 45% | 17% | 3% |
| 17-21 Oct 1991 | MORI | 9% | 28% | 46% | 15% | 2% |
| 21-25 Nov 1991 | MORI | 8% | 26% | 47% | 16% | 3% |
| 12-16 Dec 1991 | MORI | 9% | 31% | 40% | 17% | 3% |
| 16-20 Jan 1992 | MORI | 9% | 31% | 42% | 15% | 3% |
| 20-24 Feb 1992 | MORI | 7% | 29% | 37% | 23% | - |
| 12 Mar 1992 | MORI | 8% | 26% | 42% | 20% | - |
| 19 Mar 1992 | MORI | 8% | 26% | 42% | 23% | - |
| 26 Mar 1992 | MORI | 7% | 27% | 44% | 20% | - |
| 2 Apr 1992 | MORI | 6% | 22% | 45% | 23% | - |
| 9 Apr 1992 | United Kingdom general election, 1992 | |||||
| 23-27 Apr 1992 | MORI | 5% | 22% | 47% | 25% | 1% |
| 21-25 May 1992 | MORI | 5% | 23% | 48% | 21% | 3% |
| 18-22 Jun 1992 | MORI | 5% | 29% | 40% | 23% | 3% |
| 23-27 Jul 1992 | MORI | 7% | 28% | 41% | 21% | 3% |
| 21 Apr-8 May 1995 | MORI | 9% | 20% | 52% | 17% | 2% |
Notes
- ↑ Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held tomorrow, on whether Scotland should leave or remain part of the United Kingdom, how would you vote?" and given the options of "To Leave the United Kingdom" and "To Remain in the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively.
References
- ↑ Hennessy, Patrick; Kite, Melissa (26 November 2006). "Britain wants UK break up, poll shows". The Daily Telegraph. London.
- ↑ Hennessy, Patrick (15 January 2012). "Britain divided over Scottish Independence". The Daily Telegraph. London.
- ↑ Allardyce, Jason (15 March 2009). "Voters ditch SNP over referendum". The Times. London. Retrieved 16 March 2009.
- ↑ "Scottish Independence". Retrieved 8 September 2014.
- ↑ "Independence Poll" (PDF). Retrieved 8 September 2014.
- ↑ "Support for independence growing". Herald Scotland. Retrieved 8 September 2014.
- ↑ Dinwoodie, Robbie (5 September 2011). "Yes voters take lead in new independence poll". The Herald. Glasgow. Retrieved 5 September 2011.
- 1 2 3 "Q&A: Scottish independence row". BBC News. BBC. 17 January 2012. Retrieved 19 January 2012.
- ↑ Curtice, John (24 April 2014). "Scottish independence: Depending on the pollster, it looks like a photo finish". The Independent. Retrieved 25 April 2014.
- ↑ "Scottish referendum: Scotland votes 'No' to independence". BBC News. 19 September 2014. Retrieved 19 September 2014.
- ↑ "Referendum results: Turnout a record high as Scots vote No to independence". Scotland Now. 19 September 2014. Retrieved 20 September 2014.
- ↑ "New poll: Scotland would back indy if fresh vote was held now". The Herald. 1 November 2014. Retrieved 13 March 2015.
- ↑ Curtice, John (18 September 2015). "What are the latest polls saying about Scottish independence?". BBC News. BBC. Retrieved 19 September 2015.