Proposed second Scottish independence referendum

Scotland
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After the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum in June 2016, Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, indicated that a second referendum on Scottish independence could be held.

A referendum on Scottish independence was previously held in September 2014, where 55.3% voted against the proposal. One of the reasons cited by those opposed to Scottish independence was that it would endanger Scotland being part of the European Union (EU). Following the Conservative victory in the May 2015 UK general election, a referendum on UK membership of the EU was organised. The Scottish National Party (SNP), which supports Scottish independence, stated in its manifesto for the May 2016 Scottish Parliament election that it would consider holding a second independence referendum if there was a material change of circumstances, such as the UK leaving the EU. The "Leave" side won the June 2016 referendum with 52% of the vote. In Scotland, 62% of votes were to "Remain" in the EU, including a majority of voters in every local authority area.

There has since been political debate and negotiation about whether there should be a second Scottish independence referendum, or if it is possible for Scotland to maintain links with the EU after the UK leaves.

Background

Scottish independence referendum, 2014

The 2014 referendum on Scottish independence saw Scotland vote to remain part of the United Kingdom (UK), with 55.3% voting against the proposal for Scotland to become an independent country and 44.7% voting in favour. Uncertainty over Scotland's European Union (EU) membership was a topic in the run-up to the referendum vote.[1] The British government and some mainstream political parties argued that remaining in the UK was the only way for Scotland to remain part of the EU.[2][3]

Though the proposal for Scotland to become an independent country was voted down in 2014, the referendum did result in more responsibility being passed on to the Scottish Government. The latest move in the devolution process that began in 1999, the UK Government's passage of the Scotland Bill in 2015 increased the devolved powers held by the Scottish Government.[4]

United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016

In a referendum held on 23 June 2016 all 32 council areas in Scotland voted by a majority for the UK to remain a member of the EU. 62% of Scottish voters voted to remain a member of the EU, with 38% voting to leave. Overall 52% of voters in the UK voted to leave the EU, with 48% voting to remain. Majorities in England and Wales were in favour of leaving the EU.[5]

In response to the result, on 24 June 2016, the Scottish Government said officials would begin planning for a second independence referendum.[6][7] Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said it was "clear that the people of Scotland see their future as part of the European Union" and that Scotland had "spoken decisively" with a "strong, unequivocal" vote to remain in the European Union.[8] Sturgeon said it was "democratically unacceptable" that Scotland could be taken out of the EU "against its will."[6][9]

Scotland's future relations with the EU

The results of the European Union membership referendum by voting areas. Scotland, Northern Ireland, London, and Gibraltar voted in majority to remain in the European Union, contrasting with other parts of the UK, who ultimately carried the result of leaving.
  Leave
  Remain

Following the referendum result, Sturgeon said she would communicate to all EU member states that Scotland had voted to stay in the EU.[10] An emergency Scottish cabinet meeting on 25 June agreed that the Scottish Government would seek to enter negotiations with the EU and its member states, to explore "options to protect Scotland's place in the EU."[11][12] On 28 June, Sturgeon said that "independence [...] is not my starting point in these discussions. My starting point is to protect our relationship with the EU."[13]

After a summit of EU leaders on 29 June, Sturgeon held meetings with some EU officials.[14] She raised the possibility of parts of the UK remaining within the EU, or for these areas to have special arrangements with the EU, after the UK leaves.[14] David Edward, a former justice of the European Court of Justice, suggested that these arrangements would relate to policy areas that have been devolved to Scotland.[14]

Sturgeon also met with European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker, who commented that "I will listen carefully to what the first minister will tell me... but we don't have the intention, neither Donald Tusk nor myself, to interfere in an inner British process that is not our duty and this is not our job."[15] Manfred Weber, leader of the European People's Party Group, and Guy Verhofstadt, leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe Group, indicated that they were supportive of Scotland remaining an EU member.[16][17][18] Gunther Krichbaum, head of the Bundestag's Committee for EU Affairs, made supportive comments about Scotland becoming a member state of the EU.[19]

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said: "[be] very clear Scotland does not have the competence to negotiate with the European Union".[15] He also stated his opposition to the EU negotiating with "anyone other than the government of United Kingdom" and that "if the United Kingdom leaves... Scotland leaves."[15] Similarly, the French President, François Hollande, stated: "The negotiations will be conducted with the United Kingdom, not with a part of the United Kingdom".[15]

The Scottish European and External Affairs Committee held an evidence session on 30 June, asking a panel of four experts (Dr Kirsty Hughes of Friends of Europe, Prof Sionaidh Douglas-Scott of the Queen Mary School of Law at the University of London, Sir David Edward and Prof Drew Scott of the University of Edinburgh) what they felt was the best way to secure the Scottish-EU relationship.[20] Hughes stated that "the simplest and most obvious way would be to be an independent state and transition in and stay in the EU", Douglass-Scott said that "Legally there are precedents. [...] But there were also political difficulties.", referring to Catalonia in Spain. Edward believed "Scotland makes quite a good fit with Iceland and Norway.", referring to the European Economic Area and the European Free Trade Association, while Scott hinted that Scotland could be a successor state, meaning the rest of the UK would leave but Scotland would retain its seat.[20]

The new UK Prime Minister Theresa May met with Sturgeon on 15 July in Edinburgh, when May stated that she was "willing to listen to options" for Scotland,[21] although she later stated that some options were "impracticable".[22] Sturgeon then publicly stated that she had five tests for any future arrangements.[23] The IPPR thinktank stated that Scottish unionists needed to provide options for Scotland, if they wished to retain the British union.[22] The Scottish Labour Party published an 'Action Plan' in July 2016, focusing on the economy.[24]

In November 2016, Sturgeon confirmed to members of the Scottish Parliament that the Scottish Government was considering European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and European Economic Area (EEA) models of continued participation in the EU in order to "protect [Scotland's] place in the single market" of Europe even if the United Kingdom as a whole does leave in a "hard Brexit." [25]

Legislative consent

The Scotland Act 1998 empowers the Scottish Parliament to legislate in policy areas devolved to Scotland, but one of its clauses obliges the Scottish Parliament to ensure its legislation is compatible with European law.[26][27] For the UK to completely leave the EU, it would need to remove that obligation.[27] If the UK Parliament wishes to legislate on policy areas devolved to Scotland, or if it wishes to amend the powers devolved to Scotland, by convention it needs the Scottish Parliament to pass a "legislative consent motion".[26][27] On 26 June 2016, Sturgeon said she would ask the Scottish Parliament to withhold consent if she thought it was not in Scotland's interests.[28] Giving evidence to a House of Lords committee before the EU referendum, David Edward suggested the consent of the Scottish Parliament would be needed for this legislation.[26]

Media reports suggested this might give the Scottish Parliament a veto over UK withdrawal from the EU,[26][29][30] but under the Scotland Act 1998 the UK Parliament could ultimately override the "veto" as it is based only on parliamentary convention.[26][27] Alternatively, the UK Parliament could choose to disregard the obligation for the Scottish Parliament to observe EU law.[27] The Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, Theresa Villiers, said that the UK Government would consult with the devolved governments and noted that it was for the UK Parliament to decide whether to leave the EU by repealing the European Communities Act 1972.[31]

Scottish Independence Referendum Bill

On 16 October 2016, the Scottish Government published a draft bill that would enable a second Scottish independence referendum to occur, after receiving legislative consent. The Scottish Independence Referendum Bill draft is largely similar to its sister act of 2013, and has been put out for consultation by the government to allow the public to convey their views on the wording and procedures of the bill.[32]

Views on proposed Scottish referendum

Former First Minister Alex Salmond said the vote was a "significant and material change" in Scotland's position within the United Kingdom, and that he was certain the Scottish National Party would implement its manifesto on holding a second referendum.[33][34]

The outgoing British Prime Minister, David Cameron, stated that "There was a legal, fair and decisive referendum two years ago [...] the last thing Scotland needs now is another divisive referendum" and that the "best possible deal for the United Kingdom will also be the best possible deal for Scotland."[35][36][37] The leader of the Scottish Conservative Party, Ruth Davidson, expressed her opposition to a second Scottish referendum, saying that the country needed stability.[12][38] Davidson later said that although she was opposed to a second referendum, she thought that the UK Government should not prevent it from happening.[39]

Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale said in July 2016 that it would be "categorically wrong" for the UK Government to block a second independence referendum.[40] Her preference is for Scotland to remain in both the UK and the EU, under a proposal for the UK to adopt a more federal structure.[40][41]

Procedure

Following the EU referendum, Nicola Sturgeon stated that the Scottish Government, the devolved executive of Scotland, had agreed to draft legislation to allow a second independence referendum to take place.[42]

As the constitution is a 'reserved' matter under the Scotland Act 1998, for a future referendum on Scottish independence to be binding under UK law, it would need to receive the consent of the British Parliament to take place.[43] The referendum would not be legally binding under UK law in this case.[44][45] Under the Sewell Convention of the 1998 act however, the Scottish Parliament could approve a "consultative referendum" on the subject of independence, which would enable the referendum taking place without the approval of the British Parliament.[46] Under this convention, the Scottish Government is authorized to issue a "legislative consent memorandum," which would signal to the United Kingdom Parliament that Scottish Government has deemed it necessary to alter a law enacted by the UK Government or to change the scope of the devolved government's powers in some manner.[47]

Scottish Secretary David Mundell stated, on 26 June 2016, that "if the people of Scotland ultimately determine that they want to have another [independence] referendum there will be one", and added "Could there be another referendum? The answer to that question is yes. Should there be another referendum? I believe the answer to that question is no."[48]

On 13 October 2016, Sturgeon announced that an Independence Referendum Bill will be published for consultation the following week.[49]

Opinion polling

In nearly every opinion poll, participants are asked to respond to the question "Should Scotland be an independent country?", the 2014 referendum question. A response of "Yes" therefore is for Scottish independence and a response of "No" for remaining in the United Kingdom.

Following EU Membership Referendum

Only polling companies that are members of the British Polling Council, and therefore fully disclose their findings and methodology, are shown in this section.

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample sizeYesNo Undecided Lead Notes
24–29 Nov 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,134 38% 49% 10% 11%
28 Sep–4 Oct 2016BMG/Herald 1,010 39% 47% 15% 8% Non-standard referendum question[notes 1]
9–15 Sep 2016 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,024 44% 50% 7% 6%
5–11 Sep 2016 Ipsos Mori/STV 1,000 45% 50% 5% 5%
5–10 Sep 2016 Survation 1,073 42% 48% 10% 6%
10 Aug–4 Sep 2016 TNS 1,047 41% 47% 12% 6%
29–31 Aug 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,039 40% 46% 13% 6% Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds
20–25 Jul 2016 YouGov 1,005 40% 45% 14% 5% Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds
13 Jul 2016 Theresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
24–28 Jun 2016Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,055 47%41%12%6%
25–26 Jun 2016Panelbase/Sunday Times 626 47%44%8%3%
25 Jun 2016Survation/Daily Record 1,00248%41%9%7%
24 Jun 2016 David Cameron resigns as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
Nicola Sturgeon announces her government would draft legislation for a second independence vote
23 Jun 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016
18 Sep 2014 Scottish independence referendum, 2014 results 3,623,344 44.7% 55.3% 10.6%

On whether another referendum should be held

The following section concerns public opinion on holding a second referendum on Scottish independence, where "support" represents the belief that a second referendum should be held and "oppose" represents the belief that a second referendum should not be held.

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample sizeSupportOppose Don't know Notes
24–29 Nov 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,134 35% 54% 11% On holding a referendum before the UK leaves the EU.
5–11 Sep 2016 Ipsos Mori/STV 1,000 40% 55% 1% On holding a referendum within the next 2 years.
29–31 Aug 2016 YouGov/The Times 1,039 37% 50% 13% On holding a referendum before the UK leaves the EU. Excludes 16 and 17 year-olds
13 Jul 2016 Theresa May becomes the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
24–28 Jun 2016Survation/Scottish Daily Mail 1,055 47%42%11%
25 Jun 2016Survation/Daily Record 1,00242% 45% 13%
24 Jun 2016 David Cameron resigns as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom
Nicola Sturgeon announces her government would draft legislation for a second independence vote
23 Jun 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016

Polls by other organisations

Some opinion polls were conducted by organisations that are not members of the British Polling Council and therefore not obliged to fully disclose their findings and methodology. The table below denotes opinion polling conducted by said organisations.

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample sizeYesNo Undecided Lead Notes
24 Jun 2016ScotPulse/Sunday Post 1,600 59%32% 9%27%
18 Sep 2014 Scottish independence referendum, 2014 results 3,623,344 44.7% 55.3% 10.6%

Polls conducted before the EU referendum

Before the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016, there were some opinion polls conducted which asked people if they would vote for Scottish independence in the (then hypothetical) event of a "leave" vote in that referendum.

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation/client Sample sizeYesNo Undecided Lead
23 Jun 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016
6–16 Jun 2016 TNS 1,008 43% 46% 9% 3%
6–10 May 2016 ICM/The Scotsman 1,000 44% 47% 9% 3%
23–28 Apr 2016 Panelbase/Sunday Times1,07447%44%9%3%
6–15 Apr 2016 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,021 46%45%9%1%
1–7 Feb 2016 Ipsos Mori/STV 1,000 54%39%7%15%

Opinion polling in England and Wales

In 2014 a plurality (41%) of people polled in England and Wales thought that Scotland would vote to remain in the United Kingdom.[50] However, an Opinium poll carried out 28–30 June 2016 showed a marked change, with 69% believing that Scotland would vote for independence in a second referendum, with 16% believing it would vote against independence.[51]

Opinion polling in the European Union

Polls conducted by YouGov in July 2016 found majority support in Germany (71%), Denmark (67%), Finland (66%), Sweden (64%) and France (61%) for Scotland becoming an EU member, should it become an independent state.[52]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Instead of the 2014 referendum question, respondents were asked "If a referendum were held tomorrow, on whether Scotland should leave or remain part of the United Kingdom, how would you vote?" and given the options of "To Leave the United Kingdom" and "To Remain in the United Kingdom", which have been mapped to Yes and No here respectively.

References

  1. ↑ Clegg, David (17 February 2014). "Independence referendum: Euro bigwig Jose Manuel Barroso delivers fresh blow to Yes campaign". dailyrecord. Retrieved 25 June 2016. EU membership is another central plank in Salmond's blueprint for independence outlined in the SNP's White Paper last year.
  2. ↑ Riddoch, Lesley (24 June 2016). "Nicola Sturgeon needs to keep Scotland in the EU. But how?". The Guardian.
  3. ↑ "Pro-EU Scots, Northern Irish eye UK escape after Brexit vote". Associated Press. 24 June 2016.
  4. ↑ McGarvey, Neil (2015). "The 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum and Its Aftermath". Social Alternatives. 34: 34–40 – via EBSCOHost.
  5. ↑ "EU Referendum Results". BBC News.
  6. 1 2 Jamieson, Alastair (24 June 2016). "'Brexit' Triggers New Bid for Scottish Independence". NBC News.
  7. ↑ "Scotland Says New Vote on Independence Is 'Highly Likely'". The New York Times. 25 June 2016.
  8. ↑ Dickie, Mure (24 June 2016). "Scots' backing for Remain raises threat of union's demise". Financial Times.
  9. ↑ "Brexit: Nicola Sturgeon says second Scottish independence vote 'highly likely'". BBC News. 26 June 2016.
  10. ↑ "Nicola Sturgeon says second Scottish referendum 'highly likely' – as it happened". The Guardian. 24 June 2016.
  11. ↑ Carrell, Severin; Rankin, Jennifer (25 June 2016). "Sturgeon to lobby EU members to support Scotland's bid to remain".
  12. 1 2 Kerr, Aidan (25 June 2016). "Sturgeon to seek EU talks to 'protect' Scotland's membership". STV News. STV. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
  13. ↑ Press Association (28 June 2016). "Nicola Sturgeon says independence vote would be proposed 'if best or only way to protect EU place'". The Courier. Dundee, Scotland. Retrieved 28 June 2016.
  14. 1 2 3 MacDonald, Alastair; O'Leary, Elisabeth (3 July 2016). "'Reverse Greenland', anyone? Scots eye post-Brexit EU options". Reuters. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  15. 1 2 3 4 "Brexit: Spain and France oppose Scotland EU talks". BBC News. BBC. 29 June 2016. Retrieved 29 June 2016.
  16. ↑ Membership, FT. "Fast FT". (subscription required (help)).
  17. ↑ Guy Verhofstadt [GuyVerhofstadt] (24 June 2016). "It's wrong that Scotland might be taken out of EU, when it voted to stay. Happy to discuss w. @NicolaSturgeon next time she's in Bxl. #EUref" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  18. ↑ "EU leaders tell UK 'hurry up and leave'". Herald Scotland. Retrieved 26 June 2016. Guy Verhofstadt, highlighted Scotland's case to remain, saying that it was "wrong" that the country faced being pulled out of the EU despite 62 per cent of the population voting to remain
  19. ↑ Carrel, Paul (26 June 2016). "Scotland welcome to join EU, Merkel ally says". Reuters.com.
  20. 1 2 "Brexit: Scottish independence 'simplest EU option'". BBC News. BBC. 30 June 2016. Retrieved 28 July 2016.
  21. ↑ "Brexit: PM is 'willing to listen to options' on Scotland". BBC News. BBC. 15 July 2016. Retrieved 28 July 2016.
  22. 1 2 "Think tank says unionists must offer Scotland EU options". BBC News. BBC. 24 July 2016. Retrieved 28 July 2016.
  23. ↑ "Brexit: Sturgeon sets out key Scottish interests that 'must be protected'". BBC News. BBC. 25 July 2016. Retrieved 28 July 2016.
  24. ↑ "Scottish Labour publish Brexit economy 'action plan'". BBC News. BBC. 27 July 2016. Retrieved 28 July 2016.
  25. ↑ "Nicola Sturgeon confirms 'Norway model' option". BBC News. 2016-11-16. Retrieved 2016-11-17.
  26. 1 2 3 4 5 Taylor, Brian (26 June 2016). "Could the Scottish Parliament stop the UK from leaving the EU?". BBC News. BBC. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
  27. 1 2 3 4 5 Renwick, Alan (27 June 2016). "Could Scotland Really Veto Brexit?". Newsweek. Retrieved 28 June 2016.
  28. ↑ "Nicola Sturgeon: Scotland could veto Brexit". BBC News. BBC. 26 June 2016.
  29. ↑ Allardyce, Jason (26 June 2016). "Holyrood may exercise veto". The Times.
  30. ↑ Matthews, Dylan (25 June 2016). ""Bracksies": how Brexit could wind up not actually happening". vox.com.
  31. ↑ "EU referendum: Theresa Villiers says parliament sovereign". BBC News. BBC. 26 June 2016. Retrieved 27 June 2016.
  32. ↑ "Consultation on a Draft Referendum Bill". Scottish Government. 16 October 2016. Retrieved 25 October 2016.
  33. ↑ Carrell, Severin (24 June 2016). "Alex Salmond: second Scottish independence referendum is certain".
  34. ↑ "Salmond: Second Scottish independence referendum could be within two years". ITV News. 24 June 2016.
  35. ↑ "David Cameron tells Scots: Forget a second independence referendum". Politics Home.
  36. ↑ "Second independence referendum 'last thing Scotland needs', says David Cameron". Independent.
  37. ↑ "No 10 insists 'last thing' Scotland needs right now is another divisive independence poll". Herald Scotland.
  38. ↑ "Sturgeon pledges to 'protect' Scottish EU interests". BBC News. BBC. 25 June 2016. Retrieved 26 June 2016.
  39. ↑ "Ruth Davidson: Independence questions 'utterly different'". BBC News. BBC. 3 July 2016. Retrieved 4 July 2016.
  40. 1 2 Brooks, Libby (7 July 2016). "Dugdale: UK must allow Scottish independence vote if people want it". The Guardian. Retrieved 7 July 2016.
  41. ↑ Carrell, Severin; Rankin, Jennifer (27 June 2016). "Scottish Labour seeks possibility of staying in EU and UK". The Guardian. Retrieved 7 July 2016.
  42. ↑ "EU referendum: The 'stark difference' between Wales and Scotland". BBC News. BBC. 25 June 2016.
  43. ↑ "Scotland Act 1998". Legislation.gov.uk. Retrieved 25 June 2016.
  44. ↑ Kelly, James. "Scottish independence: Sorry David Cameron, you can't prevent a second referendum in Scotland". ibtimes.co.uk. International Business Times. Retrieved 25 June 2016.
  45. ↑ Gardham, Magnus (25 June 2016). "Scotland put on stand-by for another independence referendum after Brexit vote". heraldscotland.com. The Herald. Retrieved 25 June 2016.
  46. ↑ "Sewel Convention". www.parliament.scot. 2010-10-15. Retrieved 2016-11-17.
  47. ↑ Memoranda, Legislative Consent (2012-06-28). "Scrutiny of Legislative Consent Memorandum". www.parliament.scot. Retrieved 2016-11-17.
  48. ↑ McPherson, Gareth (26 June 2016). "Scotland put on stand-by for another independence referendum after Brexit vote". thecourier.co.uk. The Courier. Retrieved 26 June 2016.
  49. ↑ "SNP's Nicola Sturgeon announces new independence referendum bill". bbc.com. BBC. 13 October 2016. Retrieved 13 October 2016.
  50. ↑ Learmonth, Andrew (8 July 2016). "Majority of Brits believe Scots would vote to exit UK". The National. Retrieved 8 July 2016.
  51. ↑ "Opinium VI 28 06 2016" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 1 July 2016.
  52. ↑ Schmidt, Matthias (8 July 2016). "Nach der Brexit-Entscheidung: Deal or no Deal?". yougov.de. YouGov. Retrieved 11 July 2016.
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