Saxony state election, 2014
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A state election, as required by the state constitution, was held on 31 August 2014 in the state of Saxony in Germany. Minister-President Stanislaw Tillich sought to retain power.
Background
After the previous state election in 2009, the CDU emerged as the largest party and formed a coalition with the FDP, as opposed to their previous coalition partners, the SPD. Thus, before the 2014 election, the Saxony state government was the only government nationwide that involved the FDP. Due to the national decline in support for the FDP, a continuation of this coalition seemed unlikely as it was uncertain whether the FDP would reach the 5% threshold necessary to gain seats.
The largest opposition party in Saxony was the Left Party. One possible outcome, according to the polls, would have been a coalition between the Left, the SPD and the Greens; however this option was rejected by both the SPD and the Greens before the election.
For the SPD, the state election in Saxony is the second electoral test after the European elections since being involved (from 2013) at the federal level as junior partners in the coalition government. The work of the SPD in government has been perceived as positive in polls. Issues that have been worked on by the government were primarily election promises of the SPD. Despite this, all polls suggested that the SPD would be heading for another third-place finish. In Saxony, the SPD's election campaign was highly tailored to their leading candidate, Martin Dulig, whose campaign was supported his family. Dulig has also been supported by former chancellor Schröder.
The AfD was hoping to gain its first representation in a state parliament in Saxony after the party was able to achieve its strongest results nationwide in both the federal elections and European elections in Saxony. In the European elections, the party in Saxony received over 10% of the vote, compared to 7% nationwide.
In 2004, the far-right NPD secured their best ever result at a state election in Saxony. Since then, polls and election results have trended downwards with most polls suggesting the party would not cross the 5% threshold.
The Pirate Party achieved 1.9% of the vote in the previous state election. Despite early polling showing its support up to as much as 9% in Saxony, the party has since lost support and was averaging around just 2% in surveys.
Coalition talks before election
Polls suggested that the CDU would again be the largest party. The Minister-President Stanislaw Tillich (CDU) was therefore expected to lead coalition negotiations. In addition to the SPD, the Greens hoped for a coalition with the CDU, but a "black-green" coalition was considered unlikely because the Greens oppose coal mining in Saxony.
Prior to the election, Tillich could imagine a coalition with the FDP, the SPD, the Greens and the AfD. For Carsten Linnemann, the chairman of the CDU/CSU-Business Association, a coalition with the Greens was a viable alternative if the FDP did not obtain any seats. Even a coalition with the AfD was not ruled out by Tillich, although the federal head of the CDU had previously spoken out against it.
The Left was unlikely to overtake the CDU, according to polls. The party wanted to form a coalition with the SPD in particular. The SPD, however, were reluctant to critical of such an alliance. The NPD was not considered in the debate on coalitions with other parties.
Opinion polls
| Pollster | Date | CDU | Left | SPD | FDP | Greens | NPD | Pirates | AfD | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FGW | 21.08.2014 | 39% | 20% | 15% | 3% | 6% | 5% | — | 7% | 5% |
| uniQma | 18.08.2014 | 42% | 18% | 13% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 7% |
| IM Field | 09.08.2014 | 43% | 20% | 14% | 3% | 7% | 3% | — | 5% | 5% |
| INSA | 09.08.2014 | 40% | 19% | 14% | 5% | 5% | 4% | — | 6% | 6% |
| dimap | 10.07.2014 | 42% | 21% | 13% | 4% | 7% | 3% | — | 7% | 3% |
| Forsa | 20.06.2014 | 42% | 18% | 15% | 3% | 6% | 3% | — | 8% | 5% |
| uniQma | 13.06.2014 | 45% | 16% | 13% | 3% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 5% |
| dimap | 30.04.2014 | 43% | 18% | 16% | 4% | 6% | 4% | — | 6% | 3% |
| dimap | 29.03.2014 | 45% | 17% | 15% | 4% | 6% | 4% | — | 6% | 3% |
| INSA | 08.03.2014 | 43% | 22% | 15% | 2% | 5% | 1% | — | 7% | 2% |
| uniQma | 02.01.2014 | 49% | 15% | 17% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 6% | 2% |
| dimap | 20.08.2013 | 45% | 14% | 14% | 5% | 11% | 3% | 3% | — | 5% |
| Emnid | 09.04.2013 | 43% | 19% | 16% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 4% | — | 2% |
| TNS Infratest | 08.09.2012 | 41% | 19% | 16% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 7% | — | 3% |
| dimap | 05.09.2012 | 44% | 15% | 16% | 5% | 8% | 2% | 4% | — | 6% |
| Emnid | 15.03.2012 | 43% | 18% | 14% | 2% | 10% | 2% | 9% | — | — |
| IfM Leipzig | 16.10.2011 | 44% | 17% | 12% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 8% | — | — |
| dimap | 24.08.2011 | 43% | 19% | 12% | 6% | 11% | 5% | — | — | 4% |
| aproxima | 28.06.2011 | 42% | 21% | 15% | 6% | 8% | 3% | — | — | 5% |
| aproxima | 24.08.2010 | 42% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 7% | 4% | — | — | 3% |
| IfM Leipzig | 14.06.2010 | 40% | 20% | 16% | 6% | 12% | 3% | — | — | 3% |
| 2009 results | 30.08.2009 | 40.2% | 20.6% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 1.9% | — | 4.9% |
Results
< 2009 Next >
| Party | Popular vote | Seats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | +/– | Seats | +/– | ||||||
| Christian Democratic Union Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – CDU | 645,344 | 39.4 |  0.8 | 59 |  1 | |||||
| Left Die Linke | 309,568 | 18.9 | 1.7 | 27 | 2 | |||||
| Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – SPD | 202,374 | 12.4 | 2.0 | 18 | 4 | |||||
| Alternative for Germany Alternative für Deutschland – AfD | 159,547 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 14 | 14 | |||||
| Alliance '90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen | 93,852 | 5.7 | 0.7 | 8 | 1 | |||||
| National Democratic Party of Germany Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands – NPD | 81,060 | 5.0 (4.95) | 0.6 | 0 | 8 | |||||
| Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP | 61,847 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 0 | 14 | |||||
| Other parties | 83,776 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0 |  | |||||
| Valid votes | 1,637,364 | 98.7 | 0.5 |
|||||||
| Invalid votes | 22,281 | 1.3 | 0.5 | |||||||
| Totals and voter turnout | 1,659,645 | 49.2 | 3.0 |
126 | 6 | |||||
| Electorate | 3,375,734 | 100.00 | — | |||||||
| Source: Wahlrecht.de | ||||||||||
Government formation
The CDU formed a coalition with the SPD, as their former coalition partner, the FDP failed to win any seats.[1] Tillich ruled out a coalition with the AfD.[2]
References
External links
| Elections and referendums in Saxony | |
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| Elections | |
| Referendums |
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