Division of Paterson

Paterson Australian House of Representatives Division
Division of Paterson in New South Wales, as of the 2016 federal election.
Created	1949
Dates current	1949–84, 1992–present
MP	Meryl Swanson
Party	Labor
Namesake	Banjo Paterson
Electors	112,575 (2016)
Area	1,123 km^2 (433.6 sq mi)
Demographic	Rural
Coordinates	32°24′25″S 151°55′5″E / 32.40694°S 151.91806°ECoordinates: 32°24′25″S 151°55′5″E / 32.40694°S 151.91806°E

The Division of Paterson is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. It is located just north of Newcastle, on the coast of the Tasman Sea. The division is named after federation-era poet and author Banjo Paterson and was originally created in 1949 and abolished in 1984. It was recreated after a redistribution in 1992.

The division is located in the lower Hunter Valley and lower North Coast. It includes the towns of Maitland, Kurri Kurri, Raymond Terrace, Tarro and Woodberry.

History

Paterson was first created at the redistribution of 11 May 1949. It was named after Banjo Paterson although there is conjecture that it was originally named after Colonel William Paterson who also gave his name to the Paterson River and the town of Paterson, both of which were situated within the electorate.^[1] It was first contested at the 1949 election. At the time it included the towns of Singleton, Maitland and Muswellbrook. Redistributions eventually moved the electorate north until it included Gunnedah and Mudgee. This incarnation was held by the conservative parties—Liberal and National—for its entire existence, and for most of that time was safely conservative. The original electorate was abolished at the 11 October 1984 redistribution.

At the redistribution of 31 January 1992 the electorate was recreated, covering a similar area to the original electorate. It extended from the lower Hunter Valley in the south to the Manning River in the north, and the Great Dividing Range in the west. It included the towns of Forster, Nelson Bay, Raymond Terrace and Paterson.

It was first contested at the 1993 federal election and was narrowly won by Bob Horne (Labor). After 1993 the seat was continuously exchanged between Horne and Liberal Bob Baldwin; the seat changed hands in 1996, in 1998 and again in 2001. During this period both Bobs became so well known that name recognition in the division was often in excess of 90% in private party polling.

Horne did not contest the seat at the 2004 election at which Baldwin comfortably defeated a new Labor candidate, former Port Stephens councillor Giovanna Kozary, to retain the seat for the first time. At the 2007 election, Baldwin narrowly defeated new Labor candidate Jim Arneman, a Health Services Union organiser.^[2] Baldwin faced Arneman again in 2010 election and was reelected on a swing of four percent, garnering enough votes to win on the first count. At the 2013 election, Baldwin further consolidated his hold on the seat, again winning enough votes to win on the first count. His nearest competitor was Bay Marshall (Labor).^[3][4]

2015 redistribution

Division of Paterson (green) within New South Wales, prior to the 2015 redistribution

In 2015 the Australian Electoral Commission announced plans to abolish the federation seat of Hunter. Electors in the north of Hunter would have joined New England. The roughly 40 percent remainder would have become part of Paterson, where the Liberal margin was to be notionally reduced from 9.8 percent to just 0.5 percent as a result.^[5][6][7]

However, the new map saw Paterson radically reconfigured into a more compact coastal-based seat in the lower Hunter, covering only 1,123 km² (434 sq mi) – only one-sixth of its previous territory. It also absorbed some territory previously in the Labor strongholds of Hunter and Newcastle. The new map completely erased the Liberal majority; on its new boundaries, it had a paper-thin notional Labor majority of 0.3 percent.^[8] Baldwin opted not to contest the 2016 election.^[9] ABC election analyst Antony Green wrote that even with the knife-edge notional Labor majority, the Liberals would have found it extremely difficult to hold the reconfigured Paterson.^[10] The seat was won by the Labor candidate, Meryl Swanson, on a swing of over 10 percent, turning it into a safe Labor seat for the first time in its current incarnation.^[11]

Members

First incarnation (1949–1984)
Member		Party	Term
	Allen Fairhall	Liberal	1949–1969
	Frank O'Keefe	Country	1969–1975
		National Country	1975–1982
		National	1982–1984
Second incarnation (1993–present)
Member		Party	Term
	Bob Horne	Labor	1993–1996
	Bob Baldwin	Liberal	1996–1998
	Bob Horne	Labor	1998–2001
	Bob Baldwin	Liberal	2001–2016
	Meryl Swanson	Labor	2016–present

Election results

Australian federal election, 2016: Paterson^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Labor	Meryl Swanson	46,090	46.06	+6.22
	Liberal	Karen Howard	31,527	31.51	+0.62
	One Nation	Graham Burston	13,056	13.05	+11.62
	Greens	John Brown	5,797	5.79	−0.56
	Christian Democrats	Peter Arena	2,058	2.06	−0.09
	Rise Up Australia	Brian Clare	1,007	1.01	+0.45
	CEC	Peter Davis	533	0.53	−0.12
Total formal votes			100,068	95.11	+1.31
Informal votes			5,143	4.89	−1.31
Turnout			105,211	93.46	+0.34
Two-party-preferred result
	Labor	Meryl Swanson	60,779	60.74	+10.47
	Liberal	Karen Howard	39,289	39.26	−10.47
	Labor hold		Swing	+10.47

References

1. "Divisional Profiles: Paterson". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 13 January 2008.
2. Smee, Ben (22 February 2010). "Bob Baldwin labels challenger Jim Arneman 'union hack'". The Newcastle Herald. Fairfax Media. Retrieved 28 February 2010.
3. "NSW Division – Paterson, NSW". Virtual Tally Room, Election 2013. Australian Electoral Commission. 24 September 2013. Retrieved 6 November 2013.
4. Davis, Belinda-Jane (9 April 2013). "Labor selects Marshall in federal battle for Paterson". Maitland Mercury. Fairfax Media. Retrieved 14 April 2013.
5. "Australian Electoral Commission to abolish Federal NSW seat of Hunter - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)". Abc.net.au. 16 October 2015. Retrieved 25 July 2016.
6. "Draft federal redistribution of New South Wales - The Poll Bludger". Blogs.crikey.com.au. 16 October 2015. Retrieved 25 July 2016.
7. "Antony Green's Election Blog: 2016 Federal Election Pendulum (Update)". Blogs.abc.net.au. 13 March 2016. Retrieved 25 July 2016.
8. "Pendulum - Australia Votes | Federal Election 2016 (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)". Abc.net.au. 2 July 2016. Retrieved 25 July 2016.
9. "Paterson – Australia Votes". Abc.net.au. 13 April 2016. Retrieved 10 May 2016.
10. "New South Wales – Australia Votes". Abc.net.au. 13 April 2016. Retrieved 10 May 2016.
11. McGowan, Michael (2 July 2016). "Paterson Australian federal election results 2016: Labor's Swanson secures clean sweep". Newcastle Herald. Fairfax Regional Media. Retrieved 25 July 2016.
12. Paterson, NSW, Virtual Tally Room 2016, AEC.

External links

• Division of Paterson – Australian Electoral Commission