Tanzanian general election, 2015

Tanzanian general election, 2015
Tanzania
25 October 2015 (2015-10-25)[1]
Opinion polls
Registered 23,254,485
 
Nominee John Magufuli Edward Lowassa
Party CCM CHADEMA
Running mate Samia Suluhu Juma Haji
Popular vote 8,882,935 6,072,848
Percentage 58.46% 39.97
President before election

Jakaya Kikwete
CCM

 Elected President

John Magufuli
CCM

The Tanzanian general election of 2015 was the 5th quinquennial election to be held since the restoration of the multi-party system in 1992. Voters elected the president, members of Parliament, and local government councillors.[2] By convention, the election was held on the last Sunday of October and was supervised by the National Electoral Commission (NEC). Political campaigns commenced on 22 August and ceased a day before the polling day.[1]

The incumbent president, Jakaya Kikwete, was ineligible to be elected to a third term because of term limits.[3] Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), the country's dominant ruling party, selected Works Minister John Magufuli as its presidential nominee instead of the front-runner, former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa. After failing to secure the CCM's nomination, Lowassa defected to the opposition Chadema party despite it once labelling him as "one of the most corrupt figures in Tanzanian society".[4] This year's election was seen as the most competitive and unpredictable in the nation's history.[5]

The government had warned politicians to refrain from engaging in witchcraft, and a deputy minister told parliament that reports linking politicians with the killings of people with albinism could be true as it increases during the election period.[6] A ban on witch doctors was imposed in January 2015,[7] as some of them condone the killings due to superstitious beliefs that the victims' bodies "possess powers that bring luck and prosperity".[8]

On 29 October, CCM's Magufuli was declared the winner ahead of Chadema's Lowassa, who has yet to concede amid a dispute.[9]

Background

Kikwete has presided over an average economic growth of 7% over the past decade.[10] Tanzania received an foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow of $2.14 billion in 2014 – the highest in the East African Community (EAC) region.[11]

Tanzania is a unitary, democratic, secular and de jure socialist state. Unlike most of its neighbours, Tanzania–mainland has enjoyed relative political stability since attaining independence in 1961. This is part of the legacy of its first president, Julius Nyerere, who led the one-party state for 24 years until his resignation in 1985.[12] Since then, a two-term presidential limit has been in place. As per the directive of the Bretton Woods Institutions, political and economic reforms were implemented in the 1990s.

All eligible voters were registered using the Biometric Voters' Register (BVR) kits.[13] In June 2015, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimated that there were 24,252,927 eligible voters based on the adjusted national population census.[14] By 2 August, NEC succeeded in registering 24,001,134 voters,[15] although the final number was 23,254,485.[16] The Tanzanian diaspora were not allowed to vote in this election.[17]

At the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D. C., President Kikwete said that he is looking forward to his retirement and described the presidency as being both "stressful and thankless."[3] When asked as to why some African leaders cling to power, Kikwete replied that every country is different and suggested the interviewer "invite these leaders and talk to them".[18] In May 2015, Kikwete denied reports that his government planned to extend his term beyond his constitutional mandate and assured the nation that he was "leaving in October".[19]

A new constitution was expected to have been adopted before the general election via a referendum that had been postponed. The final draft of the proposed constitution includes the establishment of an independent electoral commission and will allow dissatisfied candidates to challenge the results in the High Court within seven days of the pronouncement.[20] Chief Justice Mohamed Chande Othman has said the judiciary was prepared to handle all cases pertaining to the results of the forthcoming election.[21]

On 29 July 2015, 21 political parties signed the 2015 General Elections Code of Conduct.[22] About 4,000 adherents of the Watch Tower Church in Kalambo District have been prohibited from voting as it is against their beliefs.[23] The Tanzanian Army refuted allegations made by CHADEMA that it had confiscated the BVR cards of its soldiers and warned political parties "to stop provoking it."[24]

Presidential election

Voters selected the fifth President and his running mate as the Vice President of Tanzania.

Article 39(1) of the 1977 Constitution stipulates the following qualifications for a person to be elected as President:[25]

a) he is a citizen by birth in accordance with the citizenship law;
b) he has attained the age of forty years;
c) he is a member of, and a candidate nominated by, a political party;

d) he is qualified to be [an] MP or a Member of the House of Representatives;
e) he has not been convicted by any court for any offence relating to tax evasion.

The proposed constitution adds the following criteria: both parents of the candidate ought to be citizens by birth; the candidate be of sound mind and either holds a Bachelor's degree or has skill and experience in leadership at the national level; and may also be a private candidate. The winning candidate will have to obtain more than 50% of all the votes cast; otherwise a runoff will be held within 60 days.[20]

Candidates

CCM

The ruling CCM (and its predecessor parties) has dominated the political scene since the nation attained independence in 1961. Following the restoration of multi-party politics in 1992, it has retained its popularity and the voters' confidence, winning all of the past four general elections (held in 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010).[26] Jakaya Kikwete, its presidential candidate in 2005, won by a landslide, receiving more than 80 percent of the popular vote.[27] In the last election in 2010, Kikwete won his second and final term, albeit by a reduced margin.[28]

More than forty members of the party contested in the primaries. On 10 July, the party's Central Committee scrutinised the then 38 presidential aspirants and selected five candidates for the consideration of its National Executive Committee. The top five were Foreign Minister Bernard Membe, Works Minister John Magufuli, Justice Minister Asha-Rose Migiro, Deputy Minister January Makamba and Ambassador Amina Salum Ali.[29] On 11 July, the National Executive Committee selected the three finalists: John Magufuli, Amina Salum Ali and Asha-Rose Migiro.[30]

On 12 July, Works Minister John Magufuli was declared as the party's candidate;[31] he was considered most likely to win the election.[32][33][34][35][36] The Economist Intelligence Unit in its political forecast stated that "CCM's candidate is almost certain to become the country's next president."[37]

Opposition

Four opposition parties with differing ideologies agreed to form an alliance known as UKAWA and intended to nominate a single candidate. The alliance consists of the conservative/centrist Chadema party, the liberal Civic United Front (CUF), the social democratic NCCR–Mageuzi and the National League for Democracy (NLD).[38]

Former Prime Minister and CCM front-runner Edward Lowassa defected to Chadema and was selected as the alliance's nominee instead of Wilbroad Slaa, who was Chadema's 2010 candidate. CUF National Chairman Ibrahim Lipumba resigned, stating that the coalition had "reneged on its agreement" on receiving those defecting from CCM.[39]

Ibrahim Lipumba resigned as CUF Chairman following Lowassa's selection as UKAWA's nominee.
Candidate Running mate Party
Anna Elisha Mghwira[40] Hamad Mussa Yussuf Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT)
Edward Lowassa[40] Juma Duni Haji Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA)
Fahmi Nassoro Dovutwa[40] Hamadi Mohammed Ibrahimu United People's Democratic Party (UPDP)
Hashim Rungwe Spunda[40] Issa Abas Hussein Chama cha Ukombozi wa Umma (CHAUMMA)
Janken Malik Kasambala[40] Simai Abdulrahman Abdulla National Reconstruction Alliance (NRA)
Lutalosa Yembe[40] Said Miraj Abdallah Alliance for Democratic Change (ADC)
Machmillan Elifatio Lyimo[40]
?
Tanzania Labour Party (TLP)

Other elections

Parliamentary election

Constituency representation
in the outgoing Parliament
Political Party Seats
CCM
  
 185
CHADEMA
  
 24
CUF
  
 24
NCCR-M
  
 4
TLP
  
 1
UDP
  
 1
Total
  
 239

In the last election, the CCM attained 186 of the 239 constituencies, thus achieving an outright majority in the National Assembly.[28] Tanzania uses first-past-the-post voting method for its legislative elections. On 9 July 2015, President Kikwete addressed Parliament for the last time before it being dissolved.[41]

Voting will take place in all the 265 parliamentary constituencies in order to elect Members of Parliament (MPs) to seats in the National Assembly.[2] More than 2,700 CCM members contested in the party's primaries in order to seek the party's nomination.[42]

Zanzibar

The semi-autonomous archipelago of Zanzibar elects its own President and members to its subnational legislature, the Zanzibar House of Representatives. The Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) has declared 25 October as the election date.[43] The number of constituencies has been increased from 50 to 54.[44]

Presidential election
Candidate Party
Ali Mohammed Shein[45]Chama Cha Mapinduzi
Seif Sharif Hamad[46]Civic United Front
Hamad Rashid Mohamed[47] Alliance for Democratic Change
Ambar Khamis Haji[45] NCCR–Mageuzi
Juma Ali Khatib[48] TADEA
Soud Said Soud[45] Alliance for Tanzania Farmers Party

Opinion polls

Pre-nomination
Poll source Date Sample size Undecided Lowassa
CCM		 Pinda
CCM		 Slaa
CHADEMA		 Lipumba
CUF		 Membe
CCM		 Magufuli
CCM		 Mbowe
CHADEMA		 Zitto
CHADEMA		 Mwandosya
CCM		 Makamba
CCM
Twaweza[49] September 2014 1,445 33% 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% 6.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0%
Positive Thinkers[50] March 2015 3,298 – 22.8% 3.2% 19.5% 8.9% 5.9% 6.8% 6.7% 1.2% 1.6%
Samunge SSRC[51] 2013–2015 7,000 – 20.7% 2.4% 11.7% 4.2% 7.0% 7.6% 3.4% 3.4% 4.8%
REDET[52] 23–26 June 2015 1,250 – 27.0% 7.2% 8.2% 6.6% 3.1% 0.8%
23.1% 13.6% 7.2%
Post-nomination
Poll source Date Sample size Undecided Magufuli
CCM		 Lowassa
CHADEMA		 Mghwira
ACT		 Others Notes
Twaweza[53] 19 August–7 September 2015 1,848 7.0% 65.0% 25.0% N/A 3.0% Margin of error of +/-2.5%
Ipsos[54] 5–22 September 2015 1,836 7.3% 61.6% 30.8% 0.3% – Margin of error of +/-2.3%
TADIP[55] 1–21 September 2015 2,040 3.0% 40.0% 54.5% 2.0% – Poll conducted in only 10 regions

Results

President

Candidate Party Votes %
John MagufuliChama Cha Mapinduzi8,882,93558.46
Edward LowassaChama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo6,072,84839.97
Anna Elisha MghwiraAlliance for Change and Transparency98,7630.65
Lutalosa YembeAlliance for Democratic Change66,0490.43
Hashim Rungwe SpundaChama cha Ukombozi wa Umma49,2560.32
Machmillan Elifatio LyimoTanzania Labour Party8,1980.05
Janken Malik KasambalaNational Reconstruction Alliance8,0280.05
Fahmi Nassoro DovutwaUnited People's Democratic Party7,7850.05
Invalid/blank votes402,248–
Total15,596,110100
Registered voters/turnout23,161,44067.34
Source: NEC

National Assembly

Party Votes % Seats
Elected Women Appointed Total +/–
Chama Cha Mapinduzi8,021,42755.0418864 252
Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo4,627,92331.753436 70
Civic United Front1,257,7658.633210 42
Alliance for Change and Transparency323,1122.2210 1
NCCR–Mageuzi218,2091.5010 1
Chama cha Ukombozi wa Umma23,0580.1600000
Democratic Party14,4710.1000000
United Democratic Party13,7570.090000–1
Tanzania Labour Party13,0980.090000–1
ADA–TADEA12,9790.0900000
Alliance for Democratic Change12,4200.0900000
Chama cha Haki na Ustawi8,2170.0600000
Alliance for Tanzania Farmers Party7,4980.0500000
United People's Democratic Party3,7720.0300000
Jahazi Asilia3,3440.0200000
Progressive Party of Tanzania – Maendeleo3,0370.0200000
Chama Cha Kijamii2,3100.0200000
National League for Democracy2,0820.0100000
Union for Multiparty Democracy1,9750.0100000
Sauti ya Umma1,8100.0100000
National Reconstruction Alliance1,4670.0100000
Demokrasia Makini1,2260.0100000
Invalid/blank votes ––––––
Total14,574,95710025611010367+17
Registered voters/turnout –––––
Source: NEC, IPU

Reactions

Second-placed candidate Edward Lowassa called for a recount, citing irregularities. In response to the National Electoral Commission's (NEC) plan to reveal the winner of the presidential race on 29 October, Lowassa called for the cancellation of the announcement. "We demand that NEC should do a verification of the results and recount the votes." However, the NEC and CCM dismissed allegations of rigging, with NEC Chairman Damian Labuva, stating "Claims of vote rigging highly misleading it is not true at all."[56]

Allegations of misconduct

In Zanzibar, the local election commission stated that there had been "gross violations," and that the election had been annulled. A member of Civic United Front (CUF) said that annulling the result was a ploy to re-run the election it has won. CCM also alleged there were violations in at least four parliamentary constituencies it had lost and that it would go to court to contest the result, but added that the "elections were free and fair" and that voting reflected the will of the people.[56] In ensuing protests in Zanzibar, several people were arrested.[57] The annulled Zanzibar poll did not affect this overall outcome.[9]

References

  1. 1 2 Raphaely, Lawrence (26 May 2015). "NEC sets October 25 as general elections date". Daily News. Dar es Salaam. Retrieved 6 July 2015.
  2. 1 2 "EISA: Tanzania". Johannesburg: Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa. Retrieved 1 March 2014.
  3. 1 2 Laing, Aislinn (7 April 2015). "Tanzania's president Jakaya Kikwete says: I can't wait to step down". The Daily Telegraph. Johannesburg. Retrieved 18 April 2015.
  4. ↑ Mohammed, Omar (30 July 2015). "Tanzania's ex-PM is running for president with the party that once called him corrupt". Quartz. Retrieved 17 August 2015.
  5. ↑ Ulimwengu, Jenerali (1 August 2015). "More surprises in store as we head towards an unpredictable election". The EastAfrican. Retrieved 17 August 2015.
  6. ↑ Makoye, Kizito (1 June 2015). "Tanzanian politicians warned off witch craft ahead of election". Reuters. Retrieved 10 July 2015.
  7. ↑ Smith, David (14 January 2015). "Tanzania bans witchdoctors in attempt to end albino killings". The Guardian (UK). Retrieved 10 July 2015.
  8. ↑ "When superstition is your biggest enemy: the fight for Albino rights in Tanzania". equitas.org. Equitas. 25 February 2015. Retrieved 10 July 2015.
  9. 1 2 Gettleman, Jeffrey (29 October 2015). "John Magufuli Declared Winner in Tanzania's Presidential Election". The New York Times. Retrieved 30 October 2015.
  10. ↑ "Interview with H.E. Dr. Jakaya Kikwete President Of The United Republic Of Tanzania". TanzaniaInvest. 9 May 2014. Retrieved 7 July 2015.
  11. ↑ "World Investment Report 2015" (PDF). UNCTAD. 24 June 2015. Annex table 1. Retrieved 13 August 2015.
  12. ↑ Paul K. Bjerk (2008). Julius Nyerere and the Establishment of Sovereignty in Tanganyika. ProQuest. pp. 21–. ISBN 978-1-109-04469-0.
  13. ↑ Kimati, Bilham (18 April 2015). "NEC affirms general election date". Daily News. Dar es Salaam. Retrieved 18 April 2015.
  14. ↑ Nkwame, Marc (22 June 2015). "24 million to vote in October". Daily News. Arusha. Retrieved 6 July 2015.
  15. ↑ Kamagi, Deogratius (4 August 2015). "Over 24 million voters booked, NEC says". Daily News. Dar es Salaam. Retrieved 12 August 2015.
  16. ↑ Press release NEC
  17. ↑ "Pinda says Tanzanians in Diaspora will not vote". The Guardian. London: IPP Media. 13 April 2015. Retrieved 16 April 2015.
  18. ↑ "A Conversation with the President of Tanzania, Jakaya Kikwete" (Interview). Interview with Monde Muyangwa. Washington, D. C.: Wilson Center. 3 April 2015. Retrieved 18 April 2015.
  19. ↑ Rugonzibwa, Pius (2 May 2015). "I won't extend term in office". Daily News. Mwanza. Retrieved 2 May 2015.
  20. 1 2 "Katiba Inayopendekezwa" [Final draft of the Proposed Constitution] (PDF) (in Swahili). Parliament of Tanzania. October 2014. Retrieved 7 July 2015.
  21. ↑ "Judiciary ready for post-election cases - CJ". Daily News. Dar es Salaam. 7 July 2015. Retrieved 7 July 2015.
  22. ↑ "NEC, parties sign joint regulatory code". Daily News. Dar es Salaam. 29 July 2015. Retrieved 12 August 2015.
  23. ↑ Siyame, Peti (11 August 2015). "Church prohibits followers from voting". Daily News. Kalambo. Retrieved 17 August 2015.
  24. ↑ "Leave us alone - Army". The Guardian. 15 August 2015. Retrieved 18 August 2015.
  25. ↑ "Constitution of Tanzania" (PDF). Judiciary of Tanzania. 1977. Article 39(1). Retrieved 7 July 2015.
  26. ↑ O'Gorman, Melanie (26 April 2012). "Why the CCM won't lose: the roots of one-party dominance in Tanzania". Journal of Contemporary African Studies. Taylor & Francis. 30 (2): 313–333. doi:10.1080/02589001.2012.669566. Retrieved 20 March 2015.
  27. ↑ "Landslide win for Tanzania's CCM". BBC News. 19 December 2005. Retrieved 20 March 2015.
  28. 1 2 Gettleman, Jeffrey (5 November 2010). "Incumbent Wins Spirited Election in Tanzania". The New York Times. Nairobi. Retrieved 20 March 2015.
  29. ↑ CCM [ccm_tanzania] (11 July 2015). "Kikao cha Kamati Kuu (CC) kimekamilika.." (Tweet) (in Swahili). Retrieved 11 July 2015 – via Twitter.
  30. ↑ CCM [ccm_tanzania] (11 July 2015). "Kikao cha Halmashauri Kuu ya Taifa (NEC) kimekamilika.." (Tweet) (in Swahili). Retrieved 11 July 2015 – via Twitter.
  31. ↑ CCM [ccm_tanzania] (12 July 2015). "Matokeo halisi ya kura za wagombea kuto Mkutano Mkuu ni" (Tweet) (in Swahili). Retrieved 12 July 2015 – via Twitter.
  32. ↑ Doya, David (25 March 2015). "Tanzanian Ruling Party Seen Stronger as Opposition Expels Leader". Bloomberg. Retrieved 9 July 2015. [CCM] is expected to gain support before elections this year
  33. ↑ "Ruling parties scoff at 'Nigeria template': Ethiopia declares election success, Tanzania to pick presidential candidate". Mail & Guardian. 25 May 2015. Retrieved 8 July 2015. [CCM] is widely expected to retain its tenacious grip on power.
  34. ↑ Ng'wanakilala, Fumbuka (27 May 2015). "Tanzanian ruling party's presidential nomination race under way". Reuters. Retrieved 8 July 2015. Whoever wins the ruling party nomination is all but assured of taking office after Kikwete.
  35. ↑ Kulekana, John (7 July 2015). "Tanzania's ruling party to pick presidential candidate". AFP. Retrieved 8 July 2015. with the winner expected to take the .. country's top job.
  36. ↑ Mohammed, Omar (9 July 2015). "In Tanzania's ruling party contest, it seems like everyone is running for president". Quartz. Retrieved 9 July 2015. CCM which has run Tanzania since 1961, will be in charge for at least another five years after the elections.
  37. ↑ "CCM meetings to select presidential candidate under way". Economist Intelligence Unit. 8 July 2015. Retrieved 9 July 2015. CCM's candidate is almost certain to become the country's next president.
  38. ↑ Ng'wanakilala, Fumbuka (27 October 2015). Obulutsa, George; Balmer, Crispian, eds. "Tanzania opposition sign unity deal ahead of 2015 elections". Reuters. Retrieved 6 July 2015.
  39. ↑ Kolumbia, Louis (6 August 2015). "Lipumba resigns as CUF chairman". The Citizen. Retrieved 18 August 2015.
  40. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Uteuzi wa Wagombea Urais". National Electoral Commission. 21 August 2015. Retrieved 30 August 2015.
  41. ↑ Peter, Felister (30 June 2015). "JK's final address to MPs lined up for next week". The Guardian. Retrieved 7 July 2015.
  42. ↑ "CCM releases Bunge aspirants list". Daily News. 14 August 2015. Retrieved 18 August 2015.
  43. ↑ "Zanzibar general election set for October 25". Daily News. Zanzibar. 26 February 2015. Retrieved 19 March 2015.
  44. ↑ Yussuf, Issa (7 July 2015). "ZEC increases Isles constituencies to 54". Daily News. Zanzibar. Retrieved 7 July 2015.
  45. 1 2 3 Sadallah, Mwinyi (6 July 2015). "Shein endorsed for Zanzibar". The Citizen. Zanzibar. Retrieved 6 July 2015.
  46. ↑ Rugonzibwa, Pius (10 September 2014). "Hamad keen on presidential post". Daily News. Mwanza. Archived from the original on 11 September 2014. Retrieved 11 September 2014.
  47. ↑ Masato, Masato (9 September 2014). "Another MP declares interest to vie for presidency". Daily News. Dodoma. Archived from the original on 11 September 2014. Retrieved 11 September 2014.
  48. ↑ Sadallah, Mwinyi (18 October 2014). "Dk Shein apata mpinzani wa urais Zanzibar" [Dr Shein gets a presidential opponent in Zanzibar]. Mwanachi (in Swahili). Zanzibar. Retrieved 18 October 2014.
  49. ↑ Schipper, Youdi; Mushi, Elvis (11 November 2014). Rajani, Rakesh, ed. "Tanzania towards 2015: Citizen preferences and views on political leadership" (PDF). Dar es Salaam: Twaweza. p. 13. Retrieved 8 December 2014.
  50. ↑ "Ripoti ya Utafiti: Vigezo na matarajio ya wananchi katika kufanya maamuzi ya kuchagua viongozi kuelekea Uchaguzi Mkuu 2015, Tanzania." (PDF). Dar es Salaam: Positive Thinkers Tanzania. March 2015. p. 16. Retrieved 30 January 2015.
  51. ↑ Mbegalo, Enles (27 May 2015). "Lowassa aongoza.". Nipashe. Dar es Salaam. Retrieved 7 July 2015.
  52. ↑ "Ni Lowassa vs Slaa" [It's Lowassa vs Slaa]. Nipashe (in Swahili). 6 July 2015. Retrieved 7 July 2015.
  53. ↑ "CCM is still the most popular party in the country" (PDF) (Press release). Dar es Salaam: Twaweza. 22 September 2015. Retrieved 2015-09-22.
  54. ↑ Ipsos Social Political Economic and Cultural Barometer (SPEC): 3rd Quarter Survey 2015 (PDF) (Report). Ipsos Tanzania. 24 September 2015. p. 19. Retrieved 25 September 2015.
  55. ↑ Aman, Frank (26 September 2015). "New poll gives Lowassa lead". The Guardian. Retrieved 26 September 2015.
  56. 1 2 Tanzania Opposition Calls For Vote Recount, Zanzibar Poll Nullified Leadership, 29 October 2015
  57. ↑ Tanzania police arrest youths after Zanzibar vote scrapped Web India 123, 29 October 2015
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