Dutch Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement referendum, 2016

Dutch EU-Ukraine Association Agreement referendum
Dutch: Bent u voor of tegen de wet tot goedkeuring van de Associatieovereenkomst tussen de Europese Unie en Oekraïne? Are you for or against the Approval Act of the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine?
Location	Netherlands
Date	6 April 2016
Results Votes % For 1,571,874 38.21% Against 2,509,395 61.00% Blank votes 32,344 0.79% Valid votes 4,113,613 99.08% Invalid votes 38,000 0.92% Total votes 4,151,613 100.00% Eligible to vote/turnout 12,862,658 32.28%
Results by municipality (plurality of votes)   For —   Against
Suspensory, non-binding referendum which has effect when a simple majority votes "Against" and turnout is at least 30%.

The Dutch Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement referendum was a referendum on the approval of the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine, held in the Netherlands on 6 April 2016. The referendum question was: "Are you for or against the Approval Act of the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine?"^[1]

With a turnout of 32.28%, the threshold for a valid referendum was met. 61% of votes were against the Approval Act. As the Act was rejected, the States General has to enact a follow-up law to either repeal the Act or put it into effect after all. The referendum is the first since the enactment of the Advisory Referendum Act (Wet raadgevend referendum) on 1 July 2015.^[2]

The decision to hold a referendum was made after more than 427,000 valid requests were received within six weeks, more than the required number of 300,000 requests. The referendum was suspensory and non-binding, and following the rejection the Government has to propose "zo spoedig mogelijk" (English: as soon as possible/at the earliest convenience) a new act to either gain parliamentary approval for either retraction of the approval act or for its entry into force. As of October 2016, such an act had not been proposed.

Background

Advisory Referendum Act

In the Netherlands, most types of primary laws can be subjected to a suspensory, non-binding referendum after royal assent and proclamation. The request procedure of a referendum consists of two stages. For the initial request, 10,000 requests have to be received within four weeks after proclamation of the law. After the requirements for this stage are met, 300,000 requests have to be received within six weeks after the completion of the initial request.

Association Agreement

The Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement is a treaty between the European Union (EU), Euratom, their 28 Member States and Ukraine that establishes a political and economic association between the parties. The parties committed to co-operate and converge economic policy, legislation, and regulation across a broad range of areas, including equal rights for workers, steps towards visa-free movement of people, the exchange of information and staff in the area of justice, the modernisation of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and access to the European Investment Bank. The parties committed to regular summit meetings, and meetings among ministers, other officials, and experts. The agreement furthermore establishes a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area between the parties. The agreement enters into force upon ratification by all parties, but parts of the agreement are already applied provisionally.

The Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement Approval Act was voted upon in the House of Representatives and Senate in 2015. People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Labour Party (PvdA), Democrats 66 (D66), Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), ChristianUnion (CU), GreenLeft (GL), Reformed Political Party (SGP), 50PLUS, Group Kuzu/Öztürk and independent MPs Houwers, Klein and Van Vliet voted in favour. Socialist Party, Party for Freedom, Groep Bontes/Van Klaveren and Party for the Animals voted against. The parties voted correspondingly in the Senate and the Independent Senate Group voted in favour. The Act received royal assent on 8 July 2015.^[3] The Minister of Foreign Affairs published a decision in the Staatscourant on the same day, at which point the law became eligible for a referendum.^[4]

Pending its entry into force, specific parts of the Agreement have been applied provisionally since 1 November 2014^[5] and 1 January 2016 (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area).^[6] According to Minister of Foreign Affairs Bert Koenders, this concerns about 70% of the Agreement, covering exclusive competence of the European Union.^[7]

Request

GeenPeil, a cooperation between the website GeenStijl, Burgercomité EU and Forum voor Democratie, organised the campaign to collect the required signatures. They deployed a web application to collect, print and deliver the signatures to the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad). Burgercomité EU is an organisation run by Pepijn van Houwelingen, Arjan van Dixhoorn, and Beata Supheert. Thierry Baudet is the founder of Forum voor Democratie.

Stage	Required	Received	Valid
Preliminary requests[8]	10,000	14,441	13,480
Definitive requests	300,000	472,849	427,939

On 14 October 2015, the Electoral Council held that both stages had been completed.^[9] An appeal was lodged with the adjudicative division of the Council of State, challenging the use of the web application to collect the signatures. On 26 October, the Council held that the claimant had no legal standing and dismissed the appeal.^[10] The Referendum Committee announced on 29 October that the referendum would be held on 6 April 2016.^[1]

Initial reactions

In response to parliamentary questions, Prime Minister Mark Rutte said that he would await the course of the referendum and its result to decide how to move forward.^[11] A majority in the House of Representatives, with the exception of VVD and D66, subsequently declared that they would respect the outcome of the referendum if the turnout exceeded 30% even if it is not binding.^[12]

A March 2016 survey found that 72% of Ukrainians wanted the Dutch to vote "yes", 13% wanted them to vote "no" and 15% were undecided.^[13] According to former Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs of Sweden Carl Bildt: "Were the European Union to turn its back on Ukraine and tear up the agreement – which is what the 'No' side in the Dutch debate wants – there is little doubt that this would encourage further Russian destabilisation of and aggression against Ukraine."^[14] The United States Department of State said that it is "in the interest of the United States, of the Netherlands, of the EU to help ensure that Ukraine becomes a democratic and economically stable country".^[15]

Campaign

The government strategy for its campaign included the advice to call the Association Agreement a "cooperation agreement" ("samenwerkingsverdrag") instead of an association agreement and to highlight trade as a key component of the Agreement.^[16]

According to Robert van Voren, proponents of the referendum were able to "accumulate four times the maximum campaign subsidy they were allowed to receive from the Dutch Government". He said that a businessman supporting the "no" campaign had been granted €50,000 and organisers of the referendum had received funds for campaigns "against", "in favour" and "neutral", but the latter two were "so cleverly written that they too evoked an "against" feeling".^[17]

Open Society Foundations, a non-profit organization led by American billionaire George Soros, announced to the NOS that it would spend €200,000 on a "yes" campaign.^[18]

In April 2016, the European Parliament began investigating the use of a European subsidy to buy a full-page advertisement in De Telegraaf to gather signatures in favour of holding the referendum.^[19] Nigel Farage said he had helped arranged financing for the advertisement.^[19]

Opinion polling

Date(s) conducted	For	Against	Undecided	Sample	Conducted by
30 March–1 April 2016	25%	40%	13% undecided, 11% leaning for, 12% leaning against	27,253	EenVandaag[20]
25–28 March 2016	36%	47%	18%	2,382	I&O Research[21]
13–20 March 2016	40%	60%	N/A	3,000+[22]	Peil.nl[23]
4–7 March 2016	33%	44%	23%	2,510	I&O Research[24]
21–25 February 2016	19%	30%	22% undecided, 14% leaning for, 15% leaning against	29,650	EenVandaag[25]
29 January–8 February 2016	32%	38%	30%	2,388	I&O Research[26]
1–7 February 2016	40%	60%	N/A	3,000+[22]	Peil.nl[27]
12–21 January 2016	31%	38%	31%	2,550	I&O Research[28]
18–28 December 2015	13%	51%	13% leaning for, 23% leaning against	27,151	EenVandaag[29]
3–20 December 2015	25%	41%	34%	3,490	I&O Research[28]

Results

Referendums under the Advisory Referendum Act are not binding. To be valid, a turnout of at least 30% of eligible voters is required and a simple majority (over 50%) defines the result.^[30] In the event of a valid vote against the Act, the States General has to enact a new law either to repeal the Act or to provide for its entry into force. As long as the Approval Act has not entered into force, the instrument of ratification cannot be deposited by the Netherlands, as a result of which the Agreement as a whole cannot enter into force.

The referendum was valid: the turnout was roughly 32.3%, and the treaty was rejected, with 61% of voters voting against it and 38.2% of voters voting for it.^[31][32][33]

As of October 2016, the Dutch Government has not put forward a bill to affirm or repeal the Approval Act. The House of Representatives initially requested that the Government take a decision by 1 November 2016, but on 31 October, Prime Minister Mark Rutte asked for more time.^[34] Rutte said that he aims for ratification of the Association Agreement and is seeking to amend it with declarations to appease opponents. These declarations would clarify that the Agreement is not an implicit first step to EU membership of Ukraine, that it does not comprise financial or military aid and that it would not be a basis for free movement of workers. Two opposition parties, CDA and D66, have hinted at supporting the coalition parties in the Senate, where they do not have a majority.^[35][36]

On 18 November 2016, Stichting KiezersOnderzoek Nederland, an independent academic organisation,^[37] published a report on the referendum results, which had been anticipated by the Dutch Government. Among other things, the organisation investigated the opponents' motives for voting against. According to the report, for the largest group of "against" voters (34.1%), corruption in Ukraine was the predominant motive. For the second-largest group, it was the 'fear of Ukraine membership of the EU'.^[38]

Reactions

Dutch Government

Rutte responded that if the turnout was above 30 percent with such a large margin of victory for the "No" camp, then his sense was that ratification could not simply go ahead. The leader of the coalition Labour Party, Diederik Samsom, also felt that they could not ratify the treaty in this fashion.^[39]

The Dutch Government campaigned in favour of the agreement. Rutte said that it is good for the European Union and the Netherlands and not to be seen as a first step to Ukraine's EU membership, saying: "We are a trading nation. We live by free trade agreements and Ukraine is another example of this [...] People who are inclined to vote No think it's a first step to EU membership. It has nothing to do with accession."^[40]

Academia

Simon Otjes, researcher at the Documentation Centre for Dutch Political Parties (DNPP) of the University of Groningen, stated that "polling now, before the start of the campaign, indicates that turn-out is likely to exceed 30% and that a majority of voters lean towards a no vote. Polls also indicate that when informed about the actual substance of the agreement, respondents tend to favour it."^[41]

Sijbren de Jong, writing in the EU Observer, said that the referendum was "curious": "It is a treaty of the kind the EU has with many countries: think Moldova, Jordan, Chile, and many others. [...] Interestingly, not a soul raised a finger back when these agreements were negotiated."^[42] Writing for the Kyiv Post, Jan Germen Janmaat and Taras Kuzio reported that the treaty's opponents were using "stereotypes, half-truths and demeaning propaganda" against Ukraine.^[43] Janmaat and Kuzio said that the no campaign "repeats Russian disinformation"^[43] and De Jong said that their arguments show "immediate parallels" with the Russian state media's portrayal of Ukraine.^[42] Andreas Umland called the result of the referendum "a propaganda triumph for Putin", "a lasting embarrassment for the Dutch nation", and "a public humiliation of millions of Ukrainians who, during the last years, have been fighting both peacefully and, on eastern Ukrainian battlefields, with arms for their national liberation and European integration."^[44] Opponents of the agreement, such as writer Leon de Winter, said that it goes well beyond the trade agreement and includes also political and military support.^[45][46] The Party for the Animals said that support for Ukraine was "problematic", calling it "the most corrupt country on the European continent".^[47]

Ukrainian authorities

According to Poroshenko: "the true goal of the Dutch referendum (was) to attack Europe's unity".^[48] This view is echoed in Slate, which cites the Dutch referendum as a good example of how Russian influence actually works in a Western European election. The European Commission will propose this month granting visa-free travel to Ukrainians despite the Dutch referendum vote against an EU-Ukraine agreement, arguing that "It may look as if we're ignoring the Dutch voters, but we have to keep our word to Ukraine"^[49]

Dutch press

In an interview with the Burgercomité EU, the members admitted they didn't really care about Ukraine at all, but are against the political system of the EU.^[50] After the referendum journalists started investigating the people of this orgs and found out founding member Pepijn van Houwelingen had published a book under a pseudonym. NRC Handelsblad, De Dagelijkse Standaard and De Groene Amsterdammer raised questions about the political motives of van Houwelingen, since, accoriding to them, the book romanticized fascism, repression and nationalism.^[51][52][53]

References

1. Visser, Jeroen (29 October 2015). "Referendum EU-verdrag met Oekraïne is op 6 april" [Referendum EU treaty with Ukraine on 6 April]. De Volkskrant (in Dutch). Retrieved 29 October 2015. Bent u voor of tegen de wet tot goedkeuring van de Associatieovereenkomst tussen de Europese Unie en Oekraïne?
2. "Advisory Referendum Act in force". Dutch Electoral Council. 22 July 2015. Retrieved 30 October 2015.
3. "34.116 Goedkeuring Associatieovereenkomst tussen de Europese Unie en de Europese Gemeenschap voor Atoomenergie met Oekraïne". Senate.
4. Decision of 8 July 2015, Stcrt. 2015, 20054.
5. "Joint Statement by the Presidents of Ukraine, the European Council and the European Commission on the occasion of the beginning of the provisional application of the Association Agreement". European Commission. 31 October 2014. Retrieved 7 February 2016.
6. "Ukraine - Trade - European Commission". ec.europa.eu.
7. Obbema, Fokke (4 February 2016). "Nederlandse staat voor de rechter om Oekraïne-verdrag" [Dutch State sued because of Ukraine Treaty]. De Volkskrant (in Dutch). Retrieved 7 February 2016.
8. "Inleidend verzoek referendum over associatieverdrag met Oekraïne toegelaten". Kiesraad. 13 August 2015.
9. "GeenPeil-referendum gaat door" [GeenPeil referendum proceeds]. NOS (in Dutch). 14 October 2015. Retrieved 16 January 2016.
10. "Referendum Associatieovereenkomst Oekraïne kan doorgaan" [Ukraine Association Agreement referendum can proceed]. Council of State (in Dutch). 26 October 2015. Retrieved 16 January 2016.
11. "Oekraïne-referendum dwingt kabinet tot scherpe EU-keuze". NRC Handelsblad (in Dutch). 21 October 2015. Retrieved 27 October 2015.
12. "Kamer: uitslag referendum Oekraïne respecteren" [House: respect result Ukraine referendum]. NOS (in Dutch). 25 November 2015. Retrieved 16 January 2016.
13. Kroet, Cynthia (29 March 2016). "Ukrainians want a Dutch Yes in EU referendum". Politico.
14. Bildt, Carl (5 April 2016). "Ukraine: The case for 'voor'". European Council on Foreign Relations.
15. "Daily Press Briefing". United States Department of State. 6 April 2016. Retrieved 14 April 2016.
16. "Strategie uitgelekt: zo promoot het kabinet een 'ja' bij het Oekraïne-referendum" (in Dutch). RTL Nieuws. 18 February 2016.
17. van Voren, Robert (6 April 2016). "Dutch referendum a painful mistake". Vytautas Magnus University.
18. "Amerikaanse miljardair sponsort 'ja'-campagne Oekraïne-referendum" (in Dutch). nos.nl.
19. Boztas, Senay; Banks, Martin (6 April 2016). "Eurocrats investigate deal backed by Nigel Farage behind Dutch referendum". Telegraph.
20. "Het Oekraïne-referendum" [The Ukraine Referendum] (PDF). EenVandaag (in Dutch). 2 April 2016. Retrieved 5 April 2016.
21. "Het referendum over de Associatie-overeenkomst met Oekraïne" [The Referendum about the Association Agreement with Ukraine] (PDF). I&O Research (in Dutch). 31 March 2016. Retrieved 5 April 2016.
22. De Hond, Maurice. "Onderzoeksopzet" [Study design]. Peil.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 31 October 2016. De weekpeiling, die wij op zondag publiceren, is minimaal op 3000 respondenten gebaseerd, maar vaak ook beduidend meer. [The weekly survey, which we publish on Sunday, is based on at least 3,000 respondents, though often significantly more.]
23. De Hond, Maurice (20 March 2016). "De Stemming van 20 maart 2016" (PDF). Peil.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 20 March 2016.
24. "Het referendum over de Associatie-overeenkomst met Oekraïne" [The Referendum about the Association Agreement with Ukraine] (PDF). I&O Research (in Dutch). 12 March 2016. Retrieved 12 March 2016.
25. "Het Oekraïne-referendum" [The Ukraine Referendum] (PDF). EenVandaag (in Dutch). 25 February 2016. Retrieved 29 February 2016.
26. "Het referendum over de Associatie-overeenkomst met Oekraïne" [The Referendum about the Association Agreement with Ukraine] (PDF). I&O Research (in Dutch). 19 February 2016. Retrieved 23 February 2016.
27. De Hond, Maurice (7 February 2016). "De Stemming van 7 februari 2016" (PDF). Peil.nl (in Dutch). Retrieved 7 February 2016.
28. "Het referendum over de Associatie-overeenkomst met Oekraïne" [The Referendum about the Association Agreement with Ukraine] (PDF). I&O Research (in Dutch). 1 February 2016. Retrieved 1 February 2016.
29. "Het referendum 2016" [The 2016 Referendum] (PDF). EenVandaag (in Dutch). 13 January 2016. Retrieved 13 January 2016.
30. Barker, Alex (28 September 2015). "Netherlands faces possible referendum on Ukraine". Financial Times. Retrieved 10 January 2016. (subscription required (help)).
31. "Dutch voters reject EU treaty with Ukraine in non-binding referendum". BNO News. BNO News. 2016-04-06. Retrieved 2016-04-07.
32. "Dutch voters 'reject EU-Ukraine deal in referendum'". Independent News & Media. Press Association. 2016-04-07. Retrieved 2016-04-07 – via Independent.ie.
33. "Uitslag referendum Associatieovereenkomst met Oekraïne" [Results referendum EU treaty with Ukraine]. De Kiesraad (in Dutch). 12 April 2016. Retrieved 12 April 2016.
34. "Kabinet neemt meer tijd voor oplossing rond Oekraïneverdrag" [Cabinet takes more time for solution on Ukraine treaty]. NU.nl (in Dutch). 31 October 2016. Retrieved 31 October 2016.
35. Niemantsverdriet, Thijs; Kranenburg, Mark (31 October 2016). "Rutte ziet steun in parlement voor ratificatie van Oekraïne-verdrag" [Rutte sees parliamentary support for ratification of the Ukraine treaty]. NRC Handelsblad (in Dutch). Retrieved 31 October 2016.
36. De Boer, Marno (20 October 2016). "EU-verdrag Oekraïne zet Rutte nog steeds klem" [EU treaty on Ukraine keeps Rutte in a hole]. Trouw (in Dutch). Retrieved 31 October 2016.
37. "Organisatie" [Organisation]. StichtingKiezersonderzoek Nederland (in Dutch). Retrieved 26 November 2016.
38. Heck, Wilmer (18 November 2016). "Rapport referendum Oekraïne is niet wat Rutte had gehoopt" [Report on Ukraine referendum is not what Rutte had hoped]. NRC Handelsblad (in Dutch). Retrieved 26 November 2016. Met 34,1 procent is dat laatste onderwerp, corruptie in Oekraïne, veruit het meest genoemde motief onder de tegenstemmers. … [De] tweede zorg onder de tegenstemmers [is] de angst dat Oekraïne lid wordt van de EU. [At 34,1 percent, this last topic, corruption in Ukraine, is by far the most-often mentioned motive among "against" voters. The second worry among "against" voters, is the fear that Ukraine becomes a member of the EU.]
39. Escritt, Thomas; Deutsch, Anthony (2016-04-06). "Dutch 'No' to Ukraine pact forces government rethink". Reuters UK edition. Amsterdam: Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters. Retrieved 2016-04-07.
40. Rettman, Andrew (8 January 2016). "Dutch PM to campaign for Yes in EU-Ukraine referendum". EUobserver. Retrieved 9 January 2016.
41. Otjes, Simon (26 January 2016). "Could the Netherlands' referendum on Ukraine really create a 'continental crisis'?". EUROPP. Retrieved 1 February 2016.
42. de Jong, Sijbren (4 April 2016). "Why the Dutch referendum on Ukraine is a joke". EU Observer.
43. Janmaat, Jan Germen; Kuzio, Taras (6 April 2016). "The no camp in Netherlands resorts to stereotypes, half-truths and demeaning propaganda". Kyiv Post.
44. Umland, Andreas (7 April 2016). "Gratitude for mass murder". Kyiv Post.
45. de Winter, Leon (3 February 2016). "Handelsverdrag is je reinste bedrog" (in Dutch). De Telegraaf. Retrieved 6 April 2016.
46. Heck, Wilmer (5 April 2016). "Alles wat je moet weten over het Oekraïne-referendum op 6 april" (in Dutch). NRC Handelsblad. Retrieved 6 April 2016.
47. "Zeg NEE tegen het associatieverdrag met Oekraïne" (in Dutch). Party for the Animals. Retrieved 8 April 2016.
48. "Poroshenko: True goal of Dutch referendum to attack Europe's unity". The KyivPos. Retrieved 12 April 2016.
49. "EU to propose visa-free travel for Ukraine despite Dutch vote: source". Reuters. Retrieved 12 April 2016.
50. "'Oekraïne kan ons niets schelen'" (in Dutch). nrc.nl.
51. "De machtsfantasie van een referendumactivist" (in Dutch). nrc.nl.
52. "Organisator Oekraïnereferendum blijkt te dromen over fascisme en onderdrukking" (in Dutch). dagelijksestandaard.nl. 30 April 2016.
53. "Met open vizier?" (in Dutch). groene.nl.

External links

• Media related to Dutch Ukraine–European Union Association Agreement referendum at Wikimedia Commons