Japanese House of Councillors election, 2013

Japanese House of Councillors election, 2013

July 21, 2013

121 (of the 242) seats in the House of Councillors   First party Second party   Leader Shinzō Abe Banri Kaieda Party Liberal Democratic Democratic Leader since 26 September 2012 25 December 2012 Last election 84 33.38% (Prefectural) 24.07% (National) 106 38.97% (Prefectural) 31.56% (National) Seats before 84 86 Seats after 115 59 Seat change 31 27 Popular vote 22,681,192 (Prefectural) 18,460,404 (National) 8,646,371 (Prefectural) 7,134,215 (National) Percentage 42.74% (Prefectural) 34.68% (National) 16.29% (Prefectural) 13.40% (National)

Seats won by parties

President of the House of Councillors before election Kenji Hirata Democratic Elected President of the House of Councillors Masaaki Yamazaki Liberal Democratic

The 23rd Elections to the House of Councillors (第23回参議院議員通常選挙 Dainijūsankai Sangiingiin Tsūjōsenkyo, "23rd regular/ordinary election of members of the House of Councillors") for the upper house of the National Diet, the legislature of Japan, was held on July 21, 2013. In the last election in 2010, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) remained the largest party, but the DPJ-led ruling coalition lost its majority. The House of Councillors is elected by halves to six year terms. In 2013, the class of Councillors elected in 2007 was up.

Background

Japan had been in a "twisted parliament" situation since 2007, in which neither major party controlled both houses of the Diet of Japan, leading to political paralysis on a number of issues. Shinzo Abe led the Liberal Democratic Party to victory in the December 2012 general election after several years in the opposition. In campaigning to win control of the House of Councillors, Abe sought to resolve the "twisted parliament" problem for the next three years.^[1]

Just prior to the election, the U.S. dollar fell against the yen on expectations of more momentum for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's aggressive monetary easing to fight deflation and boost growth for the export-dominant economy of Japan.^[2] Abe's LDP and its coalition partner, the New Komeito party, were tipped to win a majority and end years of parliamentary stalemate so as to enable economic reforms. However, his critics suggested that a strong mandate could even make Abe complacent.^[3]

Opinion polling for proportional seats

In the run up to the election, various organizations conducted opinion polls to gauge voting intentions for the 48 proportional seats. Polls are listed in chronological order, showing the oldest first.

Date	Institute
		LDP	DPJ	JRP	NKP	YP	PLP	JCP	U/O
9–10 March	TBS/JNN	37.5%	8.1%	3.6%	2.2%	2.7%	-	2.2%	43.7%
23–24 March	Fuji News Network	41.8%	5.3%	9.6%	-	4.7%	-	-	-
April	Kyodo News	48.2%	6.7%	10.4%	3.9%	4.5%	0.5%	3.2%	22.6%
18–19 May	Kyodo News	44.4%	6.8%	5.7%	4.4%	5.2%	0.3%	3.1%	30.1%
1–2 June	Kyodo News	44.6%	7.9%	4.5%	6.4%	4.0%	0.3%	2.6%	29.7%
8–9 June	Asahi Shimbun[4]	45%	7%	5%	5%	6%	-	4%	28%
8–10 June	Yomiuri Shimbun[5]	44%	7%	5%	5%	4%	-	3%	32%
29–30 June	Mainichi Shimbun[6]	45%	8%	5%	6%	7%	-	4%	25%
29–30 June	Asahi Shimbun[7]	44%	7%	7%	4%	7%	-	5%	26%
2 July	Yomiuri Shimbun[5]	42%	9%	5%	6%	5%	-	4%	29%
13–14 July	Asahi Shimbun[8]	43%	6%	6%	8%	6%	-	6%	25%
13–14 July	Kyodo News[9]	30.6%	7.4%	4.9%	7.0%	3.3%	-	3.8%	43%
13–14 July	Mainichi Shimbun[10]	37%	7%	8%	8%	8%	-	4%	28%
17 July	Nihon Keizai Shimbun[11]	39%	10%	8%	8%	7%	-	6%	22%

Note:

• U/O: Undecided or Other

Pre-election composition

Note: Composition as of July 13, 2013.^[12]

↓
62	44	28	5	10	34	59
Opposition seats not up	DPJ seats up	O	V	NK	LDP seats up	Coalition seats not up

Results

Japan House of Councillors seat distribution following Election of 2013

↓
62	17	28	11	65	59
Opposition seats not up	DPJ	O	NK	Seats won by LDP	Coalition seats not up

 Summary of the 21 July 2013 Japanese House of Councillors election results^[13]

Alliances and parties		Prefectural constituency vote			National PR vote			Not up	Total seats		+/−
		Votes[14]	%	Seats	Votes	%	Seats		Total	%	(pre- election)	(last election)
	Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Jimintō – 自民党	22,681,192	42.7	47	18,460,404	34.7	18	50	115	47.5	31	31
	New Komeito Party (NKP) Kōmeitō – 公明党	2,724,447	5.1	4	7,568,080	14.2	7	9	20	8.3	1	1
	LDP–NKP Coalition	25,405,639	47.8	51	26,028,484	48.9	25	59	135	55.8	32	32
	Democratic Party (DPJ) Minshutō – 民主党	8,646,371	16.3	10	7,268,653	13.4	7	42	59	24.4	27	47
	Restoration Party (JRP) Ishin no Kai – 日本維新の会	3,846,649	7.2	2	6,355,299	11.9	6	1	9	3.7	6	New (9)[15]
	Communist Party (JCP) Kyōsantō – 共産党	5,645,937	10.6	3	5,154,055	9.7	5	3	11	4.5	5	5
	Your Party (YP) Minna no Tō – みんなの党	4,159,961	7.8	4	4,755,160	8.9	4	10	18	7.4	5	7
	Social Democratic Party (SDP) Shamintō – 社民党	271,547	0.5	0	1,255,235	2.4	1	2	3	1.2	1	1
	Others	5,096,372	9.7	1[16]	2,547,160[17]	4.8	0	3	4[18]	1.6	12[19]	6[20]
	Independents			2	–			1	3	1.2	3	1
	Total opposition parties	27,666,837	52.2	22	27,335,562	51.1	23	62	107	44.2	27	32
	Totals	53,072,476	100.0	73	52,816,886	100.0	48	121	242	100.0	5*	0
	Turnout	52.61%			52.61%			*(vacant seats)

The ruling coalition won 76 seats and now holds a total of 135 seats in the House of Councillors ending the divided Diet.

Of the 31 single-member districts the LDP won 29; only in Iwate and Okinawa, opposition incumbents could hold their seats. The ten two-member districts elected ten LDP and ten opposition members; in several prefectures the second seat went to parties other than the DPJ: In Hyōgo to the JRP, in Miyagi to YP and in Kyōto to the JCP. Twelve of the 22 seats in three-, four and five-member districts went to LDP and Kōmeitō candidates. In the nationwide proportional race, the coalition parties won 25 seats, the opposition parties 23.

Results summary

Parties		LDP	NK	DPJ	PNP	YP	JCP	JRP	SDP	PLP	NRP	OSMP	GW	NPD	Others	Indep.	Subtotal	Subtotal	Vacant	Total
Last election (2010)		Opposition	Government	Opposition	Split	Opposition	Government
		84	19	106	3	11	6	3^SPJ	4	—	2	1	—	—	1^HRP	2	131	110	—	242
After 2012 House of Representatives election Opening session 182nd Diet		Government	Opposition	Split	Government	Opposition
		83	19	88	3	11	6	3	4	8	2	1	4	2	0	2	103	133	6	242
Before this election Closing session 183rd Diet		Government	Opposition	Government	Opposition
		84	19	86	—	13	6	3	4	8	2	1	4	1	—	6	103	134	5	242
Not Up		50	9	42	—	10	3	1	2	2	1	—	—	—	—	1	59	62	—	121
Up	Total	34	10	44	—	3	3	2	2	6	1	1	4	1	—	5	44	72	5	121
	29 single-member districts	6	—	10	—	1	—	—	—	1	—	1	2	—	—	4	6	19	4	29
	2 two-member districts reapportioned to one seat	1	—	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	2	1	4
	10 two-member districts	10	—	8	—	—	—	—	—	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	10	10	—	20
	Three- and five-member districts Two 3-member districts reapportioned to 4 seats	5	3	8	—	2	—	1	—	—	—	—	1	—	—	—	8	12	—	20
	Nationwide proportional	12	7	16	—	—	3	1	2	3	1	—	1	1	—	1	19	29	—	48
Candidates	Total	78	21	55	—	34	63	44	9	11	—	1	8	11	71	27	99	334	—	433
	31 single-member districts	31	—	19	—	5	30	2	1	2	—	1	2	—	32	14	31	108	—	139
	10 two-member districts	10	—	10	—	8	10	7	1	2	—	—	—	1	12	2	10	53	—	63
	Three-, four- and five-member districts	8	4	6	—	6	6	5	3	1	—	—	3	1	15	11	12	57	—	69
	Nationwide proportional	29	17	20	—	15	17	30	4	6	—	—	3	9	12	—	46	116	—	162
Elected	Total	65	11	17	—	8	8	8	1	—	—	1	—	—	—	2	76	45	—	121
	31 single-member districts	29	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	—	—	—	1	29	2	—	31
	10 two-member districts	10	—	7	—	1	1	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	10	10	—	20
	Three-, four- and five-member districts	8	4	3	—	3	2	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	12	10	—	22
	Nationwide proportional	18	7	7	—	4	5	6	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	25	23	—	48
Result		115	20	59	—	18	11	9	3	2	1	1	—	—	—	3	135	107	—	242
Opening session 184th Diet (by parliamentary group)		114 (113)	20 (20)	59 (58)	—	18 (18)	11 (11)	9 (9)	3 (3)	2 (2)	1 (3)	1 (—)	—	—	—	3 (4)	134	107	1	242

Differences between party and parliamentary group membership in the post-election opening session: Two independents caucus with the NRP, President Masaaki Yamazaki (LDP – Fukui), Vice-President Azuma Koshiishi (DPJ – Yamanashi) and Keiko Itokazu (OSMP – Okinawa) are independents in terms of parliamentary group.

References

1. Fackler, Martin (21 July 2013). "Election Win by Ruling Party Signals Change in Japan". New York Times. Retrieved 13 January 2014.
2. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/19/us-markets-forex-idUSBRE96D0FO20130719?feedType=RSS&virtualBrandChannel=11563
3. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100895029
4. "59% oppose Abe's nuclear power policy". Asahi Shimbun. 10 June 2013. Retrieved 2 July 2013.
5. "42% favor LDP in upper house vote". Yomiuri Shimbun. 2 July 2013. Retrieved 2 July 2013.
6. "45% will vote for LDP in upper house's proportional segment". The Mainichi. 1 July 2013. Retrieved 7 July 2013.
7. "Support for Abenomics wanes; LDP maintains lead". Asahi Shimbun. 1 July 2013. Retrieved 2 July 2013.
8. "36% want LDP to gain majority". Asahi Shimbun. 15 July 2013. Retrieved 16 July 2013.
9. "Ruiling bloc likely to achieve majority in upper house election". Kyodo News. 17 July 2013. Retrieved 16 July 2013.
10. "Proportional representation block support for LDP drops 8 points". The Mainichi. 15 July 2013. Retrieved 18 July 2013.
11. "Ruiling Bloc Cruising To Majority". Nihon Keizai Shimbun. 17 July 2013. Retrieved 16 July 2013.
12. House of Councillors
13. Final results. NHK. 17 December 2012.
14. Decimals from fractional votes (ambunhyō) rounded to full numbers
15. 6 compared to precursor Sunrise Party of Japan
16. Okinawa Socialist Mass Party
17. People's Life Party 943,836, New Party Daichi 523,146, Green Party 457,862, Green Wind 430,673, Happiness Realization Party 191,643
18. People's Life Party, 2, New Renaissance Party 1, Okinawa Socialist Mass Party 1
19. People's Life Party 6, Okinawa Socialist Mass Party , New Renaissance Party 1, Green Wind 4, New Party Daichi 1, Others
20. 9 if Sunrise Party of Japan is included

External links

• realpolitics.jp: Long-term monthly cabinet and party approval rates, overview of polls from various news organizations (Japanese)
• Yomiuri Shimbun: Results (Japanese)
• Asahi Shimbun: Results (Japanese)
• Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications: Full results (pdf, 88 pages) (Japanese)