Missouri Democratic primary, 2016

Missouri Democratic primary, 2016

March 15, 2016

Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Home state New York Vermont Delegate count 36 35 Popular vote 312,285[1] 310,711 Percentage 49.61% 49.36%

Election results by county.   Hillary Clinton   Bernie Sanders   Tied

The 2016 Missouri Democratic primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of Missouri as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Florida, Illinois, North Carolina and Ohio, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states, including their own Missouri primary, plus the Northern Mariana Islands.

Opinion polling

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	3rd	Other
Official Primary results	March 15, 2016	Hillary Clinton 49.6%	Bernie Sanders 49.4%		Others / Uncommitted 1.0%
Public Policy Polling[2] Margin of error: ± 3.4% Sample size: 839	March 11–12, 2016	Bernie Sanders 47%	Hillary Clinton 46%		Others / Undecided 7%
RABA Research[3] Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 670	March 8–10, 2016	Hillary Clinton 44%	Bernie Sanders 40%		Others / Undecided 16%
Fort Hayes State University[4] Margin of error: ± 8% Sample size: 145	March 3–10, 2016	Hillary Clinton 47%	Bernie Sanders 40%		Others / Undecided 13%
Public Policy Polling[5] Margin of error: 5.2% Sample size: 352	August 7–9, 2015	Hillary Clinton 53%	Bernie Sanders 25%	Martin O'Malley 5%	Jim Webb 5%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Not sure 12%

Results

Clinton went into election night in Missouri down to Senator Sanders in the polls. Throughout the evening Sanders maintained a lead over Clinton. However St. Louis County home of St. Louis and Jackson County home of Kansas City came in late and it was just enough to push Clinton over the finish line. Senator Sanders refused to request a recount citing concerns over wasting taxpayer dollars.

Missouri Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
Candidate	Popular vote		Estimated delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Hillary Clinton	312,285	49.61%	36	11	47
Bernie Sanders	310,711	49.36%	35	2	37
Henry Hewes	650	0.10%
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)	442	0.07%
Jon Adams	433	0.07%
Rocky De La Fuente	345	0.05%
Willie Wilson	307	0.05%
Keith Russell Judd	288	0.05%
John Wolfe, Jr.	247	0.04%
Uncommitted	3,717	0.59%	0	0	0
Total	629,425	100%	71	13	84
Source: The Green Papers, Missouri Secretary of State - Official Primary Results

State of Missouri Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
	District	Delegates	Votes Clinton	Votes Sanders	Votes Qualified	Clinton delegates	Sanders delegates
	1	10	85656	59567	145223	6	4
	2	6	46785	49661	96446	3	3
	3	5	28983	35664	64647	2	3
	4	5	26178	33428	59606	2	3
	5	7	51696	45974	97670	4	3
	6	5	28786	32129	60915	2	3
	7	4	21574	31389	52963	2	2
	8	5	20944	21259	42203	2	3
	Total	47	310,602	309,071	619,673	23	24
	PLEO	9	310,602	309,071	619,673	5	4
	At Large	15	310,602	309,071	619,673	8	7
	Gr. Total	71	310,602	309,071	619,673	36	35
	Total vote	626,075	49.61%	49.37%
Source: Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander statewide results and Missouri Secretary of State Jason Kander District results

Analysis

Hillary Clinton, having narrowly lost the Missouri primary to Barack Obama eight years prior, managed a slim 0.2-percentage-point-victory over an increasingly popular insurgent Bernie Sanders in 2016. With Sanders winning men 56-44, voters under the age of 45 67-32, and white voters 54-45, Clinton won among women 54-44, older voters 62-37, and African American voters 67-32.

Sanders won among voters who made less than $50k and $100k per year, with Clinton winning more affluent voters. And while Sanders won 67-33 among self-identified Independents who made up 24% of the electorate, Clinton won 55-44 among the 74% of voters who identified as Democrats. While Sanders won among liberals 53-46, Clinton won moderates and conservatives 55-44. Sanders was able to win 54-45 among union households, a key voting bloc in the industrial Midwest, and he won 53-46 among those who believe trade with other countries takes away U.S. jobs; trade deals championed by Bill and Hillary Clinton have not always gone over well in the industrial Rust Belt. In terms of each voters' family financial situation, voters who were "getting ahead" or "holding steady" opted for Clinton, while those who felt they were "falling behind" overwhelmingly favored Sanders.^[6]

Hillary Clinton won a large victory in St. Louis City and St. Louis County (she won 55-44 according to exit polls, likely thanks to her ardent African American support), and she also managed a 51-48 victory in Kansas City on the western side of the state. Sanders, meanwhile, won victories in Colombia and Springfield, keeping the race close statewide, and won in the largely white, rural and more conservative counties, including areas of Northwestern Missouri bordering Kansas and Nebraska, and Southwestern Missouri bordering Oklahoma. All three neighboring states are Great Plains states that Sanders managed to win earlier in March.

References

1. Missouri Secretary of State - Official Primary Results
2. "Midwestern States a Toss Up Tuesday" (PDF).
3. "Missouri Poll Results". RABA Research. Retrieved 11 March 2016.
4. "Missouri Poll Results". Fort Hayes State University. Retrieved 12 March 2016.
5. "Trump Up Big in Missouri; GOP Hopefuls Lead Clinton in State" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved 2015-08-12.
6. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-10-10.