South Carolina Democratic primary, 2016

South Carolina Democratic primary, 2016

February 27, 2016

Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Home state New York Vermont Delegate count 39 14 Popular vote 272,379 96,498 Percentage 73.44% 26.02%

South Carolina results by county   Hillary Clinton

The 2016 South Carolina Democratic primary took place on February 27 in the U.S. state of South Carolina, marking the Democratic Party's fourth nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

Clinton won the South Carolina Democratic primary by a landslide margin of more than 47%, receiving a larger percentage of the African American vote than Obama, the first black President, did in 2008.^[1]

With the Republican Party having already held its South Carolina primary a week earlier on February 20, the Democratic primary in South Carolina was the only presidential primary on that day.

Debates and forums

November 2015 forum in Rock Hill

Rachel Maddow was selected to moderate the First in the South Candidates Forum with Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley, which was held at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, South Carolina, on November 6, co-sponsored by the Democratic Parties of 13 southern states.^[2] The forum was not in debate format; instead, each candidate was interviewed individually and sequentially.^[3] Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb were also invited, but their campaigns never responded to the invitations,^[4] and both have since withdrawn from the race. A Public Policy Poll of South Carolina Democratic voters conducted from November 7–8, after the forum, discovered that 67% of viewers thought Clinton won the forum, 16% thought Sanders won, and 6% thought O'Malley won, with 11% unsure.^[5]

January 2016 debate in Charleston, South Carolina

On January 17, 2016, the Democratic Party held a fourth debate at the Gaillard Center in Charleston, South Carolina. Hosted by Lester Holt and Andrea Mitchell, the debate aired on NBC News and was streamed on YouTube. It was also sponsored by the Congressional Black Caucus. It was notable as being the final debate before the start of precinct caucuses and primary voting. Participants were Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Martin O'Malley. It was the final debate appearance of O'Malley, who suspended his campaign on February 1.

Both before and after the debate, commentators said the debate was focused on Sanders and his voting record on gun control and slights against President Obama, among other issues. During the debate, O'Malley interrupted to take 30 seconds to talk about "homeland security and preparedness".^[6] Also during the debate, Clinton and Sanders had some back-and-forth exchanges to define themselves on Wall Street, foreign policy, and gun control.^[6]

Opinion polling

Delegate count: 53 Pledged, 6 Unpledged

Winner

Hillary Clinton

Primary date

27 February 2016

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	3rd	Other
Official Primary Results	February 27, 2016	Hillary Clinton 73.4%	Bernie Sanders 26.0%		Others 0.6%
Clemson[7] Margin of error: 3.0% Sample size: 650	February 20–25, 2016	Hillary Clinton 64%	Bernie Sanders 14%		Others / Undecided 22%
Emerson College[8] Margin of error: 6.0% Sample size: 266	February 22–24, 2016	Hillary Clinton 60%	Bernie Sanders 37%		Others / Undecided 3%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[9] Margin of error: 4.8% Sample size: 425	February 15–17, 2016	Hillary Clinton 60%	Bernie Sanders 32%		Other 8%
Bloomberg Politics[10] Margin of error: 4.9% Sample size: 403	February 13–17, 2016	Hillary Clinton 53%	Bernie Sanders 31%		Not sure 16%
ARG[11] Margin of error: 5% Sample size: 400	February 14–16, 2016	Hillary Clinton 61%	Bernie Sanders 31%	Someone else 1%	No opinion 7%
Public Policy Polling[12] Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 525	February 14–15, 2016	Hillary Clinton 55%	Bernie Sanders 34%		Undecided 12%
CNN/ORC[13] Margin of error: 6% Sample size: 289	February 10–15, 2016	Hillary Clinton 56%	Bernie Sanders 38%	Someone else 3%	No opinion 4%
ARG[14] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 400	February 12–13, 2016	Hillary Clinton 65%	Bernie Sanders 27%		Other 1%, Undecided 7%
One America News Network/Gravis Marketing[15] Margin of error: ± 4% Sample size: 507	February 11–13, 2016	Hillary Clinton 59%	Bernie Sanders 41%
YouGov/CBS News[16] Margin of error: ± 8.7% Sample size: 404	February 10–12, 2016	Hillary Clinton 59%	Bernie Sanders 40%		No Preference 1%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[17] Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 446	January 17–23, 2016	Hillary Clinton 64%	Bernie Sanders 27%	Martin O'Malley 2%	Undecided 7%
YouGov/CBS News[18] Margin of error: ± 9.4% Sample size: 388	January 17–21, 2016	Hillary Clinton 60%	Bernie Sanders 38%	Martin O'Malley 0%	Undecided 2%
SC New Democrats Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 583	January 12–15, 2016	Hillary Clinton 47%	Bernie Sanders 28%	Martin O'Malley 2%	Undecided 22%

Polls in 2015 

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	3rd	Other
YouGov/CBS News[19] Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 420	December 13–17, 2015	Hillary Clinton 67%	Bernie Sanders 31%	Martin O'Malley 2%	No Preference 0%
Fox News Margin of error: ± 5.0% Sample size: 364	December 5–8, 2015	Hillary Clinton 65%	Bernie Sanders 21%	Martin O'Malley 3%	Other 1%, None of the Above 7%, DK 3%
YouGov/CBS News[20] Margin of error: ± 6.0% Sample size: 420	November 15–19, 2015	Hillary Clinton 72%	Bernie Sanders 25%	Martin O'Malley 2%	Undecided 1%
Public Policy Polling[21] Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400	November 7–8, 2015	Hillary Clinton 72%	Bernie Sanders 18%	Martin O'Malley 5%	Unsure 5%
Monmouth University[22] Margin of error: ± 4.9% Sample size: 400	November 5–8, 2015	Hillary Clinton 69%	Bernie Sanders 21%	Martin O'Malley 1%	Other 1% No Preference 8%
Winthrop University[23] Margin of error: ± 3.4% Sample size: 832	October 24 – November 1, 2015	Hillary Clinton 71%	Bernie Sanders 15%	Martin O'Malley 2%	Refused 2% Undecided 9% Wouldn't Vote 1%
YouGov/CBS News[24] Margin of error: ± 8.2% Sample size: 427	October 15–22, 2015	Hillary Clinton 68%	Bernie Sanders 25%	Martin O'Malley 1%	Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Lawrence Lessig 0%, No preference 4%
Clemson Palmetto[25] Margin of error: 4.0% Sample size: 600	October 13–23, 2015	Hillary Clinton 43%	Bernie Sanders 6%	Martin O'Malley 1%	Undecided 50%
CNN/ORC[26] Margin of error: 5.5% Sample size: 301	October 3–10, 2015	Hillary Clinton 49%	Joe Biden 24%	Bernie Sanders 18%	Martin O'Malley 3%, Someone else 1%, None/No one 1%, No opinion 4%
Gravis Marketing[27] Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: ?	September 25–27, 2015	Hillary Clinton 50%	Joe Biden 19%	Bernie Sanders 13%	Lincoln Chafee 1%, Jim Webb <1%, Martin O'Malley <1%, Unsure 17%
YouGov/CBS News[28] Margin of error: ± 6.8% Sample size: 528	Sep. 3–10, 2015	Hillary Clinton 46%	Bernie Sanders 23%	Joe Biden 22%	No preference 8%, Jim Webb 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Martin O'Malley 0%
Public Policy Polling[29] Margin of error: ± 5.6% Sample size: 302	Sep. 3–6, 2015	Hillary Clinton 54%	Joe Biden 24%	Bernie Sanders 9%	Martin O’Malley, Jim Webb 2%; Lincoln Chafee 1%
Gravis Marketing[30] Margin of error: ± 4.0% Sample size: 209	July 29–30, 2015	Hillary Clinton 78%	Bernie Sanders 8%	Elizabeth Warren 6%	Joe Biden 6%, Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 1%
Morning Consult[31] Margin of error: ? Sample size: 309	May 31 – June 8, 2015	Hillary Clinton 56%	Joe Biden 15%	Bernie Sanders 10%	Martin O'Malley 3%, Jim Webb 2%, Lincoln Chafee 1%, Someone else 2% Undecided 11%
Public Policy Polling Margin of error: ± 6.2% Sample size: 252	February 12–15, 2015	Hillary Clinton 59%	Joe Biden 18%	Elizabeth Warren 10%	Martin O'Malley 3%, Bernie Sanders 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Other/Undecided 8%
NBC News/Marist Margin of error: ± 5.2% Sample size: 352	February 3–10, 2015	Hillary Clinton 65%	Joe Biden 20%	Bernie Sanders 3%	Martin O'Malley 2%, Jim Webb 2%, Undecided 8%

Polls in 2014 

Poll source	Date	1st	2nd	3rd	Other
Clemson University Margin of error: ±6% Sample size: 400	May 26 – June 2, 2014	Hillary Clinton 50%	Joe Biden 12%	Andrew Cuomo 2%	Martin O'Malley 1%, Deval Patrick 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Undecided/Don't know 35%

Results

South Carolina Democratic primary, February 27, 2016
Candidate	Popular vote		Estimated delegates
	Count	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Hillary Clinton	272,379	73.44%	39	5	44
Bernie Sanders	96,498	26.02%	14	0	14
Willie Wilson	1,314	0.35%
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)	713	0.19%
Uncommitted			0	1	1
Total Votes	370,904	100%	53	6	59
Sources: The Green Papers, South Carolina State Election Commission

Results by county

Clinton won every county.^[32]

County	Clinton	Votes	Sanders	Votes
Abbeville	81.8%	1,501	17.0%	312
Aiken	70.2%	6,888	29.3%	2,870
Allendale	90.8%	1,022	8.4%	95
Anderson	66.9%	5,550	32.4%	2,691
Bamberg	88.3%	1,715	10.5%	204
Barnwell	87.4%	1,560	11.7%	209
Beaufort	73.3%	9,945	26.3%	3,567
Berkeley	72.0%	9,471	27.2%	3,584
Calhoun	86.1%	1,536	13.5%	241
Charleston	66.0%	26,535	33.4%	13,420
Cherokee	77.9%	1,870	21.4%	514
Chester	79.6%	1,962	20.0%	492
Chesterfield	82.8%	2,209	16.7%	446
Clarendon	90.8%	3,564	8.6%	337
Colleton	82.5%	2,932	16.4%	583
Darlington	81.9%	4,988	17.7%	1,079
Dillon	84.1%	1,615	15.2%	292
Dorchester	70.2%	6,920	29.2%	2,876
Edgefield	81.8%	1,474	16.7%	301
Fairfield	87.4%	3,260	11.8%	440
Florence	78.0%	9,411	21.4%	2,584
Georgetown	77.8%	4,931	21.2%	1,346
Greenville	64.1%	19,807	35.5%	10,965
Greenwood	77.4%	3,588	21.2%	983
Hampton	88.0%	1,930	11.0%	241
Horry	67.2%	11,294	32.4%	5,449
Jasper	85.1%	2,194	13.8%	355
Kershaw	77.1%	3,743	22.4%	1,086
Lancaster	73.0%	3,332	26.6%	1,213
Laurens	78.4%	2,952	21.2%	799
Lee	87.6%	2,207	11.4%	288
Lexington	60.9%	8,810	38.6%	5,584
Marion	85.4%	3,359	14.0%	552
Marlboro	89.0%	2,132	10.5%	252
McCormick	85.1%	973	14.2%	162
Newberry	81.0%	2,118	17.9%	469
Oconee	59.6%	1,960	39.6%	1,303
Orangeburg	88.7%	11,819	11.0%	1,460
Pickens	55.5%	2,499	44.1%	1,988
Richland	75.8%	39,243	23.8%	12,318
Saluda	83.7%	1,023	15.7%	192
Spartanburg	70.3%	10,662	29.3%	4,447
Sumter	86.6%	9,816	12.7%	1,441
Union	83.4%	1,690	16.4%	332
Williamsburg	88.5%	4,609	10.7%	557
York	63.5%	8,895	36.1%	5,058

Delegates: The South Carolina Democratic Party - State Election Results

Analysis

As South Carolina's majority-black Democratic electorate had dealt a severe death-blow to Clinton's 2008 presidential effort against Barack Obama, it gave her campaign new life in 2016. Clinton won the primary in a 47-point routing thanks to ardent support from African American voters. According to exit polls, Clinton won the black vote 86-14, which comprised 61% of the Democratic electorate in the Palmetto State; she won among black women 89-11 who comprised 37% of the electorate. Clinton's near-unanimous support from black voters was fueled by their interest in a continuation of President Obama's policies,^[33] and by black women who wanted to see a woman elected.^[34]

Clinton won every county statewide. She won in upcountry 66-34, Piedmont 74-25, Central South Carolina, including the Black Belt which is majority African American 78-22, Pee dee/Waccamaw 83-17, and lowcountry 70-30.^[35] She also swept the major cities of Charleston, Columbia, Greenville, and Rock Hill.

References

1. "Black Voters Boost Clinton in South Carolina". ABC News. 2016-02-28. Retrieved 2016-05-20.
2. "MSNBC's Rachel Maddow to moderate 2016 Democratic forum at Winthrop". The State. October 7, 2015.
3. "MSNBC's Rachel Maddow will bring Southern focus to forum". Charlotte Observer. November 4, 2015.
4. "S.C. Democrats to host three presidential candidates in Rock Hill". Greenvilleonline.com. 2015-10-07. Retrieved 2016-01-17.
5. "Three Republican candidates speak at anti-gay pastor's rally". MSNBC. Retrieved 2015-11-23.
6. Fix, Team (2016-01-17). "The 4th Democratic debate transcript, annotated: Who said what and what it meant". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2016-01-18.
7. "Clemson University Palmetto Poll Democratic primary summary". Retrieved 2016-02-26.
8. "EMERSON POLL: CLINTON LEADS SANDERS BY A WIDE MARGIN IN SOUTH CAROLINA, WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM AFRICAN AMERICANS" (PDF). Retrieved 2016-02-26.
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12. http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article60547281.html
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14. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23748
15. "OANN/Gravis South Carolina Polling Results February 2016". OANN. February 15, 2016. Retrieved February 15, 2016.
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19. "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker South Carolina" (PDF).
20. "CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker Iowa" (PDF).
21. "Trump Still Leads But Declining in SC; Clinton Dominant" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. 10 November 2015. Retrieved 22 January 2016.
22. "South Carolina: Clinton with Big Lead" (PDF). Monmouth University Poll. 10 November 2015. Retrieved 22 January 2015.
23. "Winthrop University: Winthrop Poll – Current Findings". winthrop.edu.
24. "PDF file" (PDF). Retrieved 2015-10-12.
25. "SC Poll". Retrieved 2015-11-05.
26. "CNN SC poll". Retrieved 2015-11-05.
27. "The Buzz". Retrieved 2015-10-01.
28. Will Jordan. "Sanders up big in New Hampshire and Iowa; Carson trails Trump". YouGov.
29. "The Buzz". Retrieved 2015-09-09.
30. "SC polling" (PDF). Retrieved 2015-08-04.
31. "Morning Consult SC" (PDF). morningconsult.com. Retrieved 2015-07-09.
32. http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/south-carolina
33. Chozick, Amy; Healy, Patrick (2016-02-27). "Hillary Clinton Wins South Carolina Primary". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2016-10-18.
34. Hannah-jones, Nikole (2016-02-26). "For Black Women in South Carolina, It's Clinton's Turn". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2016-10-18.
35. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-10-18.