Results of the Canadian federal election, 2015

The 42nd Canadian federal election was held on October 19, 2015. The incumbent Conservative Party of Canada of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, in office since 2006, was defeated by the Liberal Party of Canada under the leadership of Justin Trudeau. The Liberals rebounded from third place in the House of Commons with 36 seats to a strong majority government with 184 of the 338 seats in the expanded Commons. The Liberals picked up 148 seats, easily the biggest numerical increase for a Canadian party since Confederation.

Result overview

↓
184	99	44	10	1
Liberal	Conservative	New Democratic	BQ	G

A polling station on election day

At 9:41pm EDT, October 19, 2015, CBC News projected that the Liberals had won at least a minority government, and that leader Justin Trudeau would become the next Prime Minister of Canada. Less than an hour later, at 10:36pm EDT, CBC News projected a Liberal majority. The New Democratic Party lost more than half the seats they had held, with Tom Mulcair becoming the first major party leader to concede defeat. The Conservatives dropped down to 99 seats to form the main opposition party, and Stephen Harper resigned as leader of the Conservative Party. The Bloc Québécois regained some ridings they had lost in the previous election, but party leader Giles Duceppe failed to regain the seat he lost back in 2011. Green Party leader Elizabeth May kept her seat.^[1]

According to preliminary figures from Elections Canada, more than 68 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot, or about 17,546,697 registered electors—a seven percentage point increase from the 2011 federal election, when turnout was just more than 61 per cent.^[2]

Summary analysis

	Votes			Seats
Liberal	6,930,136	39.5%	20.6%	184 / 338 (54%)
Conservative	5,600,496	31.9%	7.7%	99 / 338 (29%)
New Democratic	3,461,262	19.7%	10.9%	44 / 338 (13%)
Bloc Québécois	818,652	4.7%	1.2%	10 / 338 (3%)
Green	605,864	3.4%	0.5%	1 / 338 (0.3%)

The disproportionality of parliament in the 2015 election was 12.02 according to the Gallagher Index, mainly in the Liberals' favour.

Elections to the 42nd Parliament of Canada – seats won/lost by party, 2011–2015
Party		2011 (redist.)	Gain from (loss to)					2015
Party		2011 (redist.)	Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn	2015
	Liberal	36		96	51	1		184
	Conservative	188	(96)		(3)			99
	New Democratic	109	(51)	3		(7)		44
	Bloc Québécois	4	(1)		7			10
	Green	1						1
Total		338	(148)	99	55	(6)		338

Party candidates in 2nd place^[3]
Party in 1st place		Party in 2nd place						Total
Party in 1st place		Lib	Con	NDP	BQ	Grn	Ind	Total
	Liberal		111	64	8		1	184
	Conservative	81		18				99
	New Democratic	29	11		3	1		44
	Bloc Québécois	8		2				10
	Green		1					1
Total		118	123	84	11	1	1	338

Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd place results^[3]
Parties		Seats
█ Liberal	█ Conservative	192
█ Liberal	█ New Democratic	93
█ Conservative	█ New Democratic	29
█ Liberal	█ Bloc Québécois	16
█ New Democratic	█ Bloc Québécois	5
█ Liberal	█ Independent	1
█ Conservative	█ Green	1
█ New Democratic	█ Green	1
Total		338

Seats won, by share of vote going to winning candidate^[4]
Party in 1st place		>50%	45-49.9%	40-44.9%	35-39.9%	<35%	Total
	Liberal	87	48	26	13	10	184
	Conservative	42	24	20	8	5	99
	New Democratic	3	4	12	14	11	44
	Bloc Québécois			2	1	7	10
	Green	1					1
Total		133	76	60	36	33	338

Detailed analysis

Main article: Results by riding of the Canadian federal election, 2015

Summary of the 2015 Canadian federal election
Party		Party leader	Candidates	Seats						Popular vote
Party		Party leader	Candidates	2011	Dissol.	Redist.^{[lower-alpha 1]}	2015	% change from 2011	% seats	#	# change	%	pp change	% where running
	Liberal	Justin Trudeau	338^{[lower-alpha 2]}	34	36	36	184	+441.18%	54.44%	6,943,276	+4,160,101	39.47%	+20.56pp	39.47%
	Conservative	Stephen Harper	338^{[lower-alpha 3]}	166	159	188	99	-40.36%	29.29%	5,613,614	-218,787	31.91%	-7.73pp	31.91%
	New Democratic	Tom Mulcair	338	103	95^{[lower-alpha 4]}	109	44	-57.28%	13.02%	3,470,350	-1,038,124	19.73%	-10.92pp	19.73%
	Bloc Québécois	Gilles Duceppe	78	4	2	4	10	+150%	2.96%	821,144	-68,644	4.67%	-1.38pp	19.36%
	Green	Elizabeth May	336	1	2^{[lower-alpha 4]}	1	1	0%	0.3%	602,944	+26,723	3.43%	-0.46pp	3.44%
	Independent and no affiliation		80	0	8	0	0	0	0	49,616	-23,115	0.28%	-0.21pp	1.18%
	Libertarian	Tim Moen	72	0	0	0	0	0	0	36,772	+30,755	0.21%	+0.17pp	0.93%
	Christian Heritage	Rod Taylor	30	0	0	0	0	0	0	15,232	-3,986	0.09%	-0.05pp	0.97%
	Marxist–Leninist	Anna Di Carlo	70	0	0	0	0	0	0	8,838	-1,322	0.05%	-0.02pp	0.23%
	Strength in Democracy	Jean-François Fortin	17	N/A	2^{[lower-alpha 5]}	N/A	0	0	0	8,274	*	0.05%	*	0.90%
	Rhinoceros	Sébastien Corriveau	27	0	0	0	0	0	0	7,263	+3,444	0.04%	+0.01pp	0.52%
	Progressive Canadian	Sinclair Stevens	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	4,476	-1,362	0.03%	-0.01pp	1.03%
	Communist	Miguel Figueroa	26	0	0	0	0	0	0	4,393	+1,468	0.02%	-0.00pp	0.32%
	Animal Alliance	Liz White	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	1,699	+248	0.01%	-0.00pp	0.36%
	Marijuana	Blair Longley	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	1,557	-307	0.01%	-0.00pp	0.34%
	Democratic Advancement	Stephen Garvey	4	N/A	0	N/A	0	0	0	1,187	*	0.01%	*	0.62%
	Pirate	Roderick Lim	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	908	-2,290	0.01%	-0.01pp	0.32%
	Canadian Action	Jeremy Arney	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	401	-1,629	0.00%	-0.01pp	0.24%
	Canada Party	Jim Pankiw	1	N/A	0	N/A	0	0	0	271	*	0.00%	*	0.72%
	Seniors	Daniel J. Patton	1	N/A	N/A	N/A	0	0	0	157	*	0.00%	*	0.29%
	Alliance of the North	François Bélanger	1	N/A	N/A	N/A	0	0	0	136	*	0.00%	*	0.22%
	Bridge	David Berlin	1	N/A	0	N/A	0	0	0	122	*	0.00%	*	0.29%
	PACT	Michael Nicula	1	N/A	0	N/A	0	0	0	91	*	0.00%	*	0.17%
	United	Bob Kesic	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	57	-237	0.00%	-0.00pp	0.10%
	Vacant			0	4	0	0	N/A
Total			1,792	308	308	338	338	+9.74%	100%	17,592,778	+2,872,198	100%		100%
Source: Elections Canada (Final results)

↑ The party totals are theoretical. They are the transposition of the 2011 district results redistributed to the new districts formed in 2015.
↑ Includes Liberal candidate Cheryl Thomas from Victoria, who publicly withdrew from the election after the final list of candidates was released and thus remained on the ballot as the Liberal candidate.
↑ Includes Conservative candidate Jagdish Grewal from Mississauga—Malton, who was expelled by the Conservative Party after the final list of candidates was released and thus remained on the ballot as the Conservative candidate.
1 2 Does not include José Núñez-Melo, an incumbent MP who was denied the NDP nomination in Vimy after the writ was dropped, and subsequently announced he was running as a Green candidate.
↑ Does not include Montcalm MP Manon Perreault, who sat as an independent before the writ was dropped, after which she announced her candidacy for Strength in Democracy.

Turnout

The election was notable for seeing voter turnout rise across all ages and sexes, and especially significant for the rise in younger voters. In particular, there was an increase of 1.2 million voters among those under the age of 35.^[5]

Voter turnout by age and sex, %, 2015 vs 2011^[6]^[7]
Age	2015			2011			∆%
Age	Total	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female
Canada	66.1	64.1	68.0	58.5	57.3	59.6	7.6	4.5	8.4
18 to 24 years	57.1	53.8	60.5	38.8	36.9	40.9	18.3	16.9	19.6
1st time voters	58.3	54.9	61.9	40.5	38.4	42.8	17.7	16.4	19.1
Not 1st time	55.1	52.0	58.3	37.8	36.0	39.8	17.3	16.0	18.5
25 to 34 years	57.4	54.3	60.5	45.1	42.5	47.7	12.3	11.8	12.8
35 to 44 years	61.9	58.7	65.1	54.5	51.5	47.5	7.4	4.2	17.6
45 to 54 years	66.6	63.6	69.6	64.5	62.1	66.9	2.1	1.5	2.7
55 to 64 years	73.7	71.4	76.0	71.5	70.7	72.2	2.3	0.7	3.8
65 to 74 years	78.8	79.0	78.6	75.1	77.4	73.1	3.7	1.6	5.5
75 years and over	67.4	74.1	62.8	60.3	69.5	54.2	7.1	4.6	8.6

Party summaries

Liberals

In the previous election, the Liberals were cut down to 34 seats, the fewest they had ever won in their history. It was the first time since the nation's founding that the Liberals had not been either in government or the Official Opposition. They picked up one additional seat in a by-election and one via a floor-crossing.

While the Liberals had been expected to regain much of what they had lost in 2015, they tallied the second-best performance in their history; the 184 seats was bettered only by the 191 they won in 1949. It was also the most seats that a party had won since the Progressive Conservatives won a record 211 in 1984.

The Liberal victory came mainly on the strength of a solid performance in the eastern part of the country. They took every seat in Atlantic Canada and Toronto, and won all but one seat in Ottawa. Most notably, they won 40 of Quebec's 78 seats, mostly on the strength of taking all but five seats in Montreal. It was the first time since 1980 that the Liberals had won the most seats in Quebec.

After going into the election with only four seats west of Ontario, the Liberals had their best showing in Western Canada in more than two decades. They not only took all but one seat in Winnipeg and all but two seats in Vancouver, but won seats in Alberta for the first time since 2004. Notably, they won two seats in Calgary; they had won only three seats there in their entire history prior to 2015, with their last win dating back to 1968. They were the only party to win seats in every province.

Conservatives

The Conservatives lost 60 seats to become the Official Opposition. They held their own in their heartlands of rural western Canada and central Ontario, and managed a respectable showing in southwestern Ontario and the more rural areas of eastern Ontario. However, they suffered heavy losses in urban southern Ontario, a region which had swung heavily to them in 2011. They lost all of their seats in Toronto itself and all but three in the 905 region. They also lost all of their seats in Winnipeg and Vancouver, as well as Atlantic Canada. It will be the first time in decades that there will be no centre-right MPs east of Quebec. They did, however, manage to make some gains in francophone areas of Quebec, mostly at the expense of the NDP.

Several members of Harper's cabinet were defeated, including Bernard Valcourt, Leona Aglukkaq, Gail Shea, Chris Alexander, Joe Oliver and Julian Fantino among others.

New Democrats

The NDP, the Official Opposition in the previous parliament, fell to third place with 44 seats, losing more than half of their caucus. For the most part, their support bled over to the Liberals, though they lost a few areas of francophone Quebec to the Conservatives and Bloc.

Bloc Québecois

The Bloc made a modest recovery after being nearly decimated in 2011, rebounding to 10 seats. However, Gilles Duceppe, who had been the longest-serving party leader in Canada at the time of his defeat in 2011, failed to win back his old seat of Laurier—Sainte-Marie. The party also received a smaller share of the popular vote than in the last election. As such, their gains could be attributable to NDP-Liberal vote splitting in francophone ridings more than a surge in popular support.

Contributing factors to party success

The parties had varying degrees of success by region and by socioeconomic factors. An analysis by The Globe and Mail shortly after the election was held revealed significant differences:^[8] John Oliver's show Last Week Tonight with John Oliver publicly shamed Conservative incumbent Stephen Harper before the election, supporting, albeit with many jokes about him, the Liberal party candidate Justin Trudeau, fighting for Last Week Tonight viewers to elect Trudeau over the flawed Harper.^[9]

Party support arising from certain key factors by region in the Canadian general election (2015), as a proportion of the ridings won

Region

Income (Median household)

Unemployment rate

Visible minority population

<$35,810

$35,810–$141,720

>$141,720

Low (4%–6%)

High (9%–22%)

Low (<2.41%)

High (>26.8%)

Atlantic

100%

Quebec

50%

27%

14%

46%

14%

21%

18%

83%

17%

44%

16%

24%

16%

71%

21%

28%

25%

31%

17%

92%

Ontario

67%

33%

64%

30%

69%

29%

56%

42%

72%

13%

15%

37%

11%

53%

91%

Prairies

33%

23%

10%

68%

12%

84%

18%

75%

67%

33%

22%

78%

40%

60%

British Columbia

25%

50%

25%

41%

33%

22%

57%

14%

29%

53%

26%

16%

27%

47%

27%

N/A

65%

29%

The North

100%

Results by province

Party name			BC	AB	SK	MB	ON	QC	NB	NS	PE	NL	YT	NT	NU	Total
	Liberal	Seats:	17	4	1	7	80	40	10	11	4	7	1	1	1	184
	Liberal	Vote:	35.2	24.6	23.9	44.6	44.8	35.7	51.6	61.9	58.3	64.5	53.6	48.3	47.2	39.5
	Conservative	Seats:	10	29	10	5	33	12	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	99
	Conservative	Vote:	30.0	59.5	48.5	37.3	35.0	16.7	25.3	17.9	19.3	10.3	24.0	18.0	24.8	31.9
	New Democratic Party	Seats:	14	1	3	2	8	16	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	44
	New Democratic Party	Vote:	25.9	11.6	25.1	13.8	16.6	25.4	18.3	16.4	16.0	21.0	19.5	30.8	26.5	19.7
	Bloc Québécois	Seats:	–	–	–	–	–	10	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	10
	Bloc Québécois	Vote:	–	–	–	–	–	19.3	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	4.7
	Green	Seats:	1	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	1
	Green	Vote:	8.2	2.5	2.1	3.2	2.9	2.3	4.6	3.4	6.0	1.1	2.9	2.8	1.5	3.4
	Independent and no affiliation	Vote:	0.1	0.8	0.2	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.3	–	2.9	–	–	–	0.2
Total seats			42	34	14	14	121	78	10	11	4	7	1	1	1	338

10 closest ridings

Electoral district				Won by	Confirmed on recount^[10]
Elmwood—Transcona	MB	Daniel Blaikie	Lawrence Toet	61 votes
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	SK	Georgina Jolibois	Lawrence Joseph	71 votes	Y
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte	ON	Alex Nuttall	Brian Tamblyn	86 votes	Y
Edmonton Mill Woods	AB	Amarjeet Sohi	Tim Uppal	92 votes	Y
Regina—Lewvan	SK	Erin Weir	Trent Fraser	132 votes
Hastings—Lennox and Addington	ON	Mike Bossio	Daryl Kramp	225 votes
Kitchener—Conestoga	ON	Harold Albrecht	Tim Louis	251 votes
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup	QC	Bernard Généreux	Marie-Josée Normand	272 votes	Y
Kootenay—Columbia	BC	Wayne Stetski	David Wilks	282 votes
Jonquière	QC	Karine Trudel	Marc Pettersen	339 votes

Retiring & Defeated Incumbents

Main articles: List of MPs who stood down at the Canadian general election, 2015 and List of MPs who lost their seat in the Canadian general election, 2015

Notional gains

As a result of the 2012 federal electoral redistribution, thirty new ridings were added and many riding boundaries were changed, so several incumbent MPs who ran chose to do so in new ridings. The following table identifies the subsequent nominees in their old ridings and who they lost to.

Electoral District, with 2011 redistributed result
Alberta	Edmonton Mill Woods	Mike Lake	Tim Uppal	Amarjeet Sohi
British Columbia	Burnaby North—Seymour	Kennedy Stewart	Carol Baird Ellan	Terry Beech
	North Island—Powell River	John Duncan	Laura Smith	Rachel Blaney
	Steveston—Richmond East	Kerry-Lynne Findlay	Kenny Chiu	Joe Peschisolido
Ontario	Bay of Quinte	Daryl Kramp	Jodie Jenkins	Neil Ellis
	Brampton East	Bal Gosal	Naval Bajaj	Raj Grewal
	Brampton West	Kyle Seeback	Ninder Thind	Kamal Khera
	Don Valley East	Joe Daniel	Maureen Harquail	Yasmin Ratansi
	Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas	David Sweet	Vincent Samuel	Filomena Tassi
	Nepean	Pierre Poilievre	Andy Wang	Chandra Arya
	Oakville North—Burlington	Lisa Raitt	Effie Triantafilopoulos	Pam Damoff
	Richmond Hill	Costas Menegakis	Michael Parsa	Majid Jowhari
Quebec	Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation	Mylène Freeman	Chantal Crête	Stéphane Lauzon
	Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	Alain Giguère	Marie-Josée Lemieux	Yves Robillard
	Repentigny	Jean-François Larose	Johnathan Cloutier	Monique Pauzé
Saskatchewan	Regina—Lewvan	Tom Lukiwski	Trent Fraser	Erin Weir
Saskatchewan	Saskatoon West	Kelly Block	Randy Donauer	Sheri Benson

New Seats

As a result of the 2012 federal electoral redistribution, thirty new ridings were added and many riding boundaries were changed, so several ridings did not have an Incumbent. The following table identifies what party would have held the redistributed ridings based on 2011 results for the new riding and the subsequent MP who was elected. Some of these seats did have incumbents from other districts running.

	Electoral District
Conservative
	Alberta	Bow River	Martin Shields
		Calgary Rocky Ridge	Pat Kelly
		Calgary Shepard	Tom Kmiec
		Edmonton Manning	Ziad Aboultaif
		Edmonton—Wetaskiwin	Mike Lake
		Peace River—Westlock	Arnold Viersen
		Sturgeon River—Parkland	Rona Ambrose
	British Columbia	Cloverdale—Langley City	John Aldag
		Delta	Carla Qualtrough
		Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon	Jati Sidhu
		Vancouver Granville	Jody Wilson-Raybould
	Ontario	Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill	Leona Alleslev
		Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte	Alex Nuttall
		Brampton Centre	Ramesh Sangha
		Brampton South	Sonia Sidhu
		Carleton	Pierre Poilievre
		Don Valley North	Geng Tan
		Flamborough—Glanbrook	David Sweet
		Hastings—Lennox and Addington	Mike Bossio
		King—Vaughan	Deb Schulte
		Kitchener South—Hespeler	Marwan Tabbara
		Markham—Unionville	Bob Saroya
		Milton	Lisa Raitt
		Mississauga Centre	Omar Alghabra
NDP
	British Columbia	Burnaby South	Kennedy Stewart
	British Columbia	Nanaimo—Ladysmith	Sheila Malcolmson
	Quebec	La Prairie	Jean-Claude Poissant
		Mirabel	Simon Marcil
		Thérèse-De Blainville	Ramez Ayoub
Liberal
	Ontario	Scarborough—Rouge Park	Gary Anandasangaree

References

↑ "Canada Election 2015 Live Results CBC". CBC.ca.
↑ "Voter turnout spikes after long, unpredictable campaign". cbc.ca. October 20, 2015.
1 2 Daniel Schwartz (October 21, 2015). "Going deeper into Canada's 2015 federal election results". CBC News.
↑ Antony Green (October 21, 2015). "Canada 2015 - Would Preferential Voting Have Made a Difference?". blogs.abc.net.au. Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
↑ Clark, Campbell (June 15, 2016). "After 'a seismic shift' in voting, it's time to fill in the political trenches". The Globe and Mail.
↑ "Voter Turnout by Age Group" (PDF). Elections Canada. 2016.
↑ "Voter turnout by sex and age" (PDF). Elections Canada. 2016.
↑ Eric Andrew-Gee (October 21, 2015). "How Canadians voted". The Globe and Mail. pp. A8–A9.
↑ LastWeekTonight (2015-10-18), Last Week Tonight with John Oliver: Canadian Election (HBO), retrieved 2016-07-04
↑ "Summary table of judicial recounts". elections.ca. 2015.

← Canadian federal election, 2015

Outgoing: Conservative majority Result: Liberal majority

Bloc Québécois Gilles Duceppe, candidates Christian Heritage Rod Taylor, candidates Conservative Stephen Harper, candidates Green Elizabeth May, candidates Liberal Justin Trudeau, candidates New Democrats Thomas Mulcair, candidates Strength in Democracy Jean-François Fortin, candidates Bold indicates parties with members elected to the House of Commons.

Results overview Results by riding MPs who stood down MPs who lost their seat Marginal seats Newspaper endorsements Other endorsements Opinion Polling (by constituency) Timeline

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