Next Belgian federal election

Next Belgian federal election

All 150 seats in the Chamber of Representatives 76 seats needed for a majority   First party Second party Third party   Leader Bart De Wever Elio Di Rupo Charles Michel Party N-VA PS MR Leader since 2004 1999 2011 Leader's seat Antwerp Hainaut Walloon Brabant Last election 33 seats, 20.36% 23 seats, 11.67% 20 seats, 9.64%   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Wouter Beke Gwendolyn Rutten John Crombez Party CD&V Open Vld sp.a Leader since 2010 2012 2015 Leader's seat Limburg Flemish Brabant West Flanders Last election 18 seats, 10.85% 14 seats, 9.78% 13 seats, 8.83%

Federal Government before election Michel Government Elected Federal Government TBD

The next Belgian federal election will take place on the same day as the 2019 European Parliament elections and the 2019 Belgian regional elections,^[1] unless snap elections are called.^[2] This arrangement is new since the 2011–14 state reform.

In the election, all 150 members of the Chamber of Representatives will be elected in eleven multi-member constituencies.

Background

Following the 2014 elections, a centre-right government consisting of N-VA, CD&V, Open Vld and MR was formed, led by Prime Minister Charles Michel (MR). The government coalition is unique in several aspects: the N-VA participates for the first time, the MR is the only French-speaking party, and the French-speaking Socialist Party is not part of the government for the first time in 25 years.

Electoral system

The 150 members of the Chamber of Representatives will be elected in 11 multi-member constituencies with between 4 and 24 seats. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method, with an electoral threshold of 5% per constituency.^[3]

Parties and leaders

	Political party	Party leader	Seats
Flemish parties in Parliament
	New Flemish Alliance (N-VA)	Bart De Wever (since 2004, re-elected in 2008, 2011, 2014; election due in 2017)	33 (government)
	Christian Democratic and Flemish (CD&V)	Wouter Beke (since 2010, re-elected in 2016)	18 (government)
	Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats (Open Vld)	Gwendolyn Rutten (since 2012, re-elected in 2016)	14 (government)
	Socialist Party Different (sp.a)	John Crombez (since 2015, defeating incumbent Bruno Tobback)	13 (opposition)
	Green (Groen)	Meyrem Almaci (since 2014)	6 (opposition)
	Flemish Interest (Vlaams Belang)	Tom Van Grieken (since 2014)	3 (opposition)
French-speaking parties in Parliament
	Socialist Party (PS)	Elio Di Rupo (since 1999, except during 2011-2014 while Prime Minister)	23 (opposition)
	Reformist Movement (MR)	Olivier Chastel (since 2014, replacing Charles Michel who became Prime Minister)	20 (government)
	Humanist Democratic Centre (cdH)	Benoît Lutgen (since 2011)	9 (opposition)
	Ecolo (Ecolo)	Zakia Khattabi & Patrick Dupriez (since 2015)	6 (opposition)
	Democratic Federalist Independent (DéFI)	Olivier Maingain (since 1995)	2 (opposition)
	People's Party (Parti Populaire)	Mischaël Modrikamen (since 2009)	1 (opposition)
National (bilingual) parties in Parliament
	Workers' Party (PVDA-PTB)	Peter Mertens (since 2008)	2 (opposition)

Polls

The results of the opinion polls conducted on a nation-wide basis are usually split into separate numbers for the three Belgian regions. They are therefore split across the tables in the sections below, but seat projections for the Belgian Chamber are presented together.

Flanders

The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Flemish Region, and for polls conducted nation-wide the part of the results related to the Flemish Region. In the graph, the squares mark the election results, the stars the individual opinion poll results, and the trend line the floating average for the opinion poll results with a window of plus/minus three months.

Date(s) conducted	Polling firm	Newspaper	Sample size	N-VA	CD&V	Open Vld	sp.a	Groen	Vlaams Belang	PVDA	Others	Lead	Government	Opposition	Lead
24–28 November 2016	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique [4][5]	1,007	26.3%	16.3%	12.4%	13.2%	12.7%	12.3%	4.2%		10.0%	55.0%	38.2%	16.8%
14 September-3 October 2016	TNS Media	VRT / De Standaard[6]	1013	27.8%	16.8%	13.6%	15.8%	13.3%	8.1%	3.4%	1.2%	11%	58.2%	37.2%	21%
19–25 September 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[7]	983	25.9%	17.6%	12.5%	13.7%	10.7%	12.0%	3.9%		8.3%	56.0%	36.4%	19.6%
2–6 September 2016	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique [8][9]	1,002	25.2%	15.6%	14.0%	14.9%	10.0%	13.1%	5.1%	2.1%	9.6%	54.8%	38.0%	16.8%
6–12 May 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[10]	1,045	24.2%	13.8%	13.2%	15.6%	11.1%	13.9%	4.8%		8.6%	51.2%	40.6%	10.6%
31 March–4 April 2016	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique[11][12]	975	25.6%	18.3%	13.3%	14.4%	10.2%	12.4%			7.3%	57.2%	37.0%	20.2%
22 February–9 March 2016	TNS Media	VRT / De Standaard[13]	1,005	27.3%	19.1%	14.1%	14.7%	11.6%	8.1%	4.0%		8.2%	60.5%	34.4%	26.1%
15–20 January 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[14]	1,043	28.5%	16.0%	12.5%	15.2%	10.3%	11.6%	3.7%		12.5%	57.0%	37.1%	19.9%
3–7 December 2015	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique[15]	990	29.2%	15.0%	12.6%	14.1%	11.6%	11.9%			14.2%	56.8%	37.6%	19.2%
28 September–4 October 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[16]	1,030	28.8%	17.8%	12.5%	14.5%	9.0%	10.5%	4.1%		11.0%	59.1%	34.0%	25.1%
22 September–2 October 2015	TNS Media	VRT / De Standaard[17]	1,019	31.1%	18.4%	14.9%	13.8%	9.9%	7.0%	3.8%		12.7%	64.4%	30.7%	33.7%
9–14 September 2015	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique[18]	745	27.5%	16.0%	14.4%	16.2%	10.1%	9.7%	3.8%		11.3%	57.9%	36.0%	21.9%
12–18 May 2015	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique[18]	761	28.1%	17.2%	15.4%	15.6%	10.0%	7.9%	3.3%		10.9%	60.7%	33.5%	27.2%
20 April–3 May 2015	TNS Media	VRT / De Standaard	1,032	28.5%	21.2%	16.1%	14.3%	11.6%	5.8%	1.4%		7.3%	65.8%	31.7%	34.1%
20–24 April 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws	963	28.3%	15.8%	14.0%	15.6%	10.7%	8.0%	3.2%		12.5%	58.1%	34.3%	23.8%
5–9 March 2015	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique[19]	691	28.8%	16.7%	15.4%	16.4%	9.6%	7.4%	3.4%	2.3%	12.1%	60.9%	33.4%	27.5%
23–28 January 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[20]	1,035	30.2%	17.1%	14.9%	14.7%	10.2%	7.6%	3.6%		13.1%	62.2%	32.5%	29.7%
5–11 January 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[20]	1,043	27.8%	18.3%	14.3%	15.7%	10.4%	6.8%	3.8%		9.5%	60.4%	32.9%	27.5%
4–5 December 2014	AQ Rate	Het Laatste Nieuws	794	28%	17%	12%	16%	14%	6%	2%		11%	57%	36%	21%
27 November–1 December 2014	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique[19]	773	30.9%	18.2%	13.3%	15.2%	10.2%	5.7%	4.0%	2.5%	12.7%	62.4%	31.1%	31.3%
9–10 October 2014	AQ Rate	Het Laatste Nieuws	801	30%	14%	16%	18%	9%	8%	3%		12%	60%	35%	25%
22 September–3 October 2014	TNS Media	De Standaard / VRT	1,023	29.9%	20.0%	14.4%	15.7%	9.8%	6.5%	3.2%		9.9%	64.3%	32.0%	32.3%
5–9 September 2014	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique[19]	792	31.9%	17.7%	15.4%	15.0%	9.6%	5.5%	3.1%	1.8%	14.2%	65.0%	30.1%	34.9%
July 2014	AQ Rate	Het Laatste Nieuws	880	32.9%	17.7%	15.4%	14.6%	9.0%	5.8%	3.1%		15.2%	66.0%	29.4%	36.6%
June 2014	AQ Rate	Het Laatste Nieuws		38.4%	15.5%	13.8%	13.1%	7.8%	5.2%	3.3%		22.9%	67.7%	26.1%	41.6%
25 May 2014	Federal election			32.4%	18.6%	15.5%	14.0%	8.6%	5.8%	2.8%	2.2%	13.9%	66.5%	28.4%	38.1%

Wallonia

The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Walloon Region, and for polls conducted nation-wide the part of the results related to the Walloon Region. In the graph, the squares mark the election results, the stars the individual opinion poll results, and the trend line the floating average for the opinion poll results with a window of plus/minus three months.

Date(s) conducted	Polling firm	Newspaper	Sample size	PS	MR	cdH	Ecolo	PTB	PP	DéFI	Others	Lead	Government	Opposition	Lead
24–28 November 2016	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique [4][5]	892	25.4%	23.1%	9.4%	9.2%	18.2%	4.0%	2.2%		2.3%	23.1%	68.6%	45.5%
19–25 September 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[7]	983	24.7%	22.3%	9.8%	7.5%	16.3%	6.0%	2.4%		2.4%	22.3%	66.7%	44.4%
2–6 September 2016	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique [8][9]	962	25.6%	23.5%	10.5%	9.2%	14.6%	5.3%	3.9%	7.4%	2.1%	23.5%	69.1%	45.6%
6–12 May 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[10]	1,003	25.8%	20.1%	12.0%	10.1%	13.5%	5.5%	3.3%		5.7%	20.1%	70.2%	50.1%
31 March–4 April 2016	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique[11][12]	967	26.4%	23.9%	12.8%	11.1%	10.4%	5.5%	2.4%		2.5%	23.9%	68.6%	44.7%
15–20 January 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[14]	1,034	26.7%	23.1%	11.1%	9.2%	8.8%	5.2%	3.4%		3.6%	23.1%	64.4%	41.3%
3–7 December 2015	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique[15]	910	27.2%	24.7%	13.5%	9.5%	10.3%	5.4%	3.2%		2.5%	24.7%	69.1%	44.4%
28 September–4 October 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[16]	1,017	26.0%	23.3%	13.3%	9.0%	8.5%	4.6%	1.7%		2.7%	23.3%	63.1%	39.8%
9–14 September 2015	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique[18]	643	29.7%	24.2%	13.5%	9.2%	9.7%	4.1%	2.6%		3.5%	24.2%	68.8%	44.6%
12–18 May 2015	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique[18]	680	29.7%	25.5%	12.8%	8.9%	9.0%	4.6%	2.9%		4.2%	25.5%	67.9%	42.4%
20–24 April 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws	952	25.8%	26.1%	13.1%	9.1%	8.5%	5.0%	2.2%		0.3%	26.1%	63.7%	37.6%
5–9 March 2015	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique[19]	678	28.7%	25.2%	14.3%	8.3%	8.3%	3.5%	2.9%	8.8%	3.5%	25.2%	66.0%	40.8%
23–28 January 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[20]	1,042	27.4%	26.0%	13.9%	8.4%	7.3%	4.7%	2.2%		1.4%	26.0%	63.9%	37.9%
5–11 January 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[20]	1,053	30.1%	25.3%	12.6%	7.8%	7.7%	3.5%	2.1%		4.8%	25.3%	63.8%	38.5%
27 November–1 December 2014	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique[19]	655	30.1%	23.9%	13.4%	8.1%	7.6%	4.9%	2.7%		6.2%	23.9%	67.7%	43.8%
September 2014	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique[19]	676	31.0%	26.6%	12.7%	8.5%	8.1%	5.0%	1.8%	6.3%	4.4%	26.6%	67.1%	40.5%
25 May 2014	Federal election			32.0%	25.8%	14.0%	8.2%	5.5%	4.5%	2.4%	7.6%	6.2%	25.8%	66.6%	40.8%

Brussels

The table below shows the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Brussels Region, and for polls conducted nation-wide the part of the results related to the Brussels Region.

Date(s) conducted	Polling firm	Newspaper	Sample size	PS	MR	DéFI	Ecolo	cdH	PTB-PVDA	N-VA	Open Vld	sp.a	PP	CD&V	Groen	Vlaams Belang	Others	Lead	Government	Opposition	Lead
19–25 September 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[7]	983	15.5%	20.3%	10.9%	9.8%	7.8%	11.2%				0.9%					4.8%
2–6 September 2016	Dedicated	RTBf / La Libre Belgique [8][9]	917	19.8%	20.1%	11.3%	12.9%	6.5%	7.5%	4.2%	2.6%	1.5%	3.0%	1.9%	1.8%	2.4%	4,5%	0.3%	28,8%	66.7%	37.9%
6–12 May 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[10]	505	17.7%	19.7%	10.7%	8.9%	7.7%	7.8%				2.0%					2.0%
31 March–4 April 2016	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique[11][12]	918	21.1%	20.2%	11.1%	10.2%	8.8%	6.1%	4.0%	2.6%		2.8%	1.9%	1.2%	2.3%		0.9%	28.7%	63.6%	34.9%
15–20 January 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[14]	537	18.2%	20.7%	9.8%	8.3%	6.8%	7.0%				2.1%				2.7%	2.5%
October 2015	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws
5–9 March 2015	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique[19]	907
November 2014	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique[19]
September 2014	Dedicated	RTBF / La Libre Belgique[19]		23.9%	23.7%	11.9%	11.5%	10.4%	3.7%	2.9%	3.3%	1.4%	1.4%	2.2%	0.9%	1.2%		0.2%	32.1%	66.3%	34.2%
25 May 2014	Federal election			25.6%	21.9%	10.8%	10.5%	9.4%	4.0%	2.6%	2.6%	2.0%	1.8%	1.7%		1.1%	5.9%	3.7%	28.8%	65.2%	36.4%

Seat Projections

The table below shows seat projections for the Belgian Chamber when given by the reporting newspaper or polling firm.

76 seats needed for majority

Date(s) conducted	Polling firm	Newspaper	N-VA	CD&V	Open Vld	MR	sp.a	Groen	Vlaams Belang	PVDA/PTB	PS	cdH	Ecolo	PP	FDF	Others	Lead	Government	Opposition	Lead
19–25 September 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[7]	24	18	11	19	13	10	10	11	19	6	5	2	2	0	5	72	78	6
6-12 May 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[10]	24	13	12	15	14	11	12	10	20	8	7	2	2	0	4	64	86	21
15–20 January 2016	Ipsos	RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[14]	28	14	12	19	14	9	9	6	21	8	7	1	2	0	7	73	77	4
25 May 2014	Federal election		33	18	14	20	13	6	3	2	23	9	6	1	2	0	10	85	65	20

See also

• Political parties in Belgium

References

1. Article 65 of the Belgian Constitution
2. Article 46 of the Belgian Constitution
3. Electoral system IPU
4. Baromètre RTBF: le PTB toujours plus haut
5. Baromètre politique: Le PTB poursuit son envol
7. Grand baromètre: hausse spectaculaire du PTB, 3e parti francophone
8. Baromètre RTBF-La Libre: le PTB wallon triomphe
9. Baromètre: Le PTB s'envole en Wallonie au détriment du PS, le CDH historiquement bas à Bruxelles
10. Grand baromètre politique: le PTB devient le 3e parti de Wallonie
11. Baromètre politique: les partis de la majorité fédérale chutent, le Vlaams Belang progresse
12. Baromètre politique: La N-VA en chute libre, le MR résiste
13. Peiling maart 2016
14. Baromètre politique: le PS reprend de l’avance sur le MR en Wallonie
15. Baromètre RTBF-La Libre: le Vlaams Belang aspire des électeurs N-VA
16. Grand baromètre: le recul du PS continue à Bruxelles
17. Peiling najaar 2015
18. Baromètre: sale temps pour les majorités
19. Baromètre politique: la N-VA à nouveau en recul et le PS au plus bas
20. Grand Baromètre: le PS boit la tasse