New South Wales state election, 2019
New South Wales state election, 2019
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The next New South Wales state election is scheduled to be held in 2019 to elect the 58th Parliament of New South Wales. The incumbent centre-right Liberal/National Coalition, currently led by Premier Mike Baird, will attempt to win a third term and will be challenged by the centre-left Australian Labor Party opposition, currently led by Luke Foley.
New South Wales has compulsory voting, with an optional preferential ballot in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house. The election will be conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).
Date
The parliament has constitutionally fixed four year terms.
Previous election
Lower house
At the 2015 election, the Coalition retained government with a reduced majority of 54 seats from 69 seats in the 2011 election. However, during that time the Coalition were reduced to a further 61 seats due to ICAC proceedings that expelled 8 MPs from the Liberal Party. The Australian Labor Party gained 11 seats with a total of 34 seats. The Greens gained a record three seats. Independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both respectively retained their seats.
Upper house
The 2015 election saw the incumbent Liberal/National coalition gain one seat in the legislative council to have a total of 20 despite a 5.1% swing against them. The Labor party lost 2 seats bringing their total down to 12 whilst The Greens, Shooters and Fishers and Christian Democrats saw no gains or losses in the election with each party respectively having 5 and 2 apiece. The only gain came from the Animal Justice Party.
Polling
|
Legislative Assembly polling
| Date |
Firm |
Primary vote |
TPP vote |
| LIB |
NAT |
ALP |
GRN |
OTH |
L/NP |
ALP |
| December 2016 |
Fairfax-ReachTEL [1] |
40.6% |
32.4% |
8% |
19% |
53% |
47% |
| October 2016 |
Roy Morgan [2] |
37% |
31.5% |
14% |
17.5% |
48.5% |
51.5% |
| August-September 2016 |
Newspoll[3] |
42% |
36% |
11% |
11% |
51% |
49% |
| August 2016 |
Roy Morgan[4] |
39% |
30.5% |
13% |
17.5% |
50.5% |
49.5% |
| 27 August 2016 |
ReachTEL[5] |
39.4% |
34.9% |
8% |
9.6% |
50% |
50% |
| May 2016 |
Roy Morgan[6] |
46% |
29% |
17% |
8% |
53.5% |
46.5% |
| March 2016 |
Roy Morgan [7] |
46% |
27% |
15.5% |
11.5% |
55% |
45% |
| 29 Jan – 1 Feb 2016 |
Roy Morgan[8] |
52% |
24.5% |
14.5% |
9% |
59.5% |
40.5% |
| 4-7 Dec 2015 |
Roy Morgan[9] |
52% |
22.5% |
15% |
10.5% |
60.5% |
39.5% |
| 16 October 2015 |
Roy Morgan[10] |
54% |
24.5% |
13.5% |
8% |
60.5% |
39.5% |
| September 2015 |
Newspoll[11] |
47% |
33% |
11% |
9% |
56% |
44% |
| 28–31 Aug 2015 |
Roy Morgan[12] |
49%* |
25% |
17.5% |
8.5% |
57% |
43% |
| 25 Jun 2015 |
Roy Morgan[13] |
49.5%* |
27.5% |
14% |
9% |
57% |
43% |
| 27 May 2015 |
Roy Morgan[14] |
53.5%* |
29.5% |
12% |
5% |
58.5% |
41.5% |
| 15 April 2015 |
Roy Morgan[15] |
47.5%* |
31.0% |
12.5% |
9.0% |
54.5% |
45.5% |
| 28 March 2015 election |
35.1% |
10.5% |
34.1% |
10.3% |
9.9% |
54.3% |
45.7% |
| 23–26 March 2015 |
Newspoll[16] |
35% |
9% |
34% |
11% |
11% |
55% |
45%[17] |
| * Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote. |
| Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here |
Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
| Date |
Firm |
Better Premier |
|
Baird |
Foley |
| Baird |
Foley |
|
Satisfied |
Dissatisfied |
Satisfied |
Dissatisfied |
| December 2016 |
Fairfax-ReachTEL |
50.6% |
49.4% |
|
not asked |
| October 2016 |
Roy Morgan |
52.5% |
47.5% |
|
not asked |
| 29 September 2016 |
Newspoll |
42% |
24% |
|
39% |
46% |
32% |
39% |
| 27 August 2016 |
ReachTEL |
48.7% |
51.3% |
|
not asked |
| 29 Jan – 1 Feb 2016 |
Roy Morgan |
72% |
28% |
|
not asked |
| 4-7 Dec 2015 |
Roy Morgan |
72.5% |
27.5% |
|
not asked |
| 16 October 2015 |
Roy Morgan |
74.5% |
25.5% |
|
not asked |
| September 2015 |
Newspoll |
57% |
19% |
|
63% |
24% |
35% |
37% |
| 25 Jun 2015 |
Roy Morgan |
70% |
30% |
|
not asked |
| 27 May 2015 |
Roy Morgan |
70.5% |
29.5% |
|
not asked |
| 15 Apr 2015 |
Roy Morgan |
68% |
32% |
|
not asked |
| 28 March 2015 election |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
| 23–26 Mar 2015 |
Newspoll |
54% |
27% |
|
57% |
29% |
38% |
37% |
| * Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither". |
| Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here |
See also
References
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