Western Australian state election, 2017
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The 2017 Western Australian state election will be held on Saturday 11 March 2017 to elect 59 members to the Legislative Assembly and 36 members to the Legislative Council.
Date of election
On 3 November 2011, the Government of Western Australia introduced fixed four-year terms, with the elections to be held on the second Saturday in March.[1][2] The first election under the new law was the 2013 election.
Seats held
Lower house
At the 2013 election, Labor won 21 seats, the Liberals won 31 seats and the Nationals won 7 seats. No seats were won by independents.
Upper house
At the 2013 election, the Liberals won 17 seats, Labor won 11 seats, the Nationals won five seats, the Greens won two seats and the Shooters and Fishers won one seat.
Redistribution
A redistribution of electoral boundaries for the lower house was completed on 27 November 2015. This resulted in a net gain of one seat for the Liberal Party from Labor. The Liberal seats of Alfred Cove, Eyre and Ocean Reef, the Labor seat of Gosnells and the National seat of Wagin were abolished. Five new seats were created (or re-created): the notionally Liberal seats of Bicton and Burns Beach, the notionally Labor seats of Baldivis and Thornlie, and the notionally National seat of Roe. The Labor seats of Collie-Preston and West Swan became notionally Liberal.[3]
Retiring MPs
Members who have announced they will not re-nominate at the 2017 election:
Liberal
- Kim Hames MLA (Dawesville) – announced 2 August 2014[4]
- Barry House MLC (South West Region) – announced 27 October 2015[5]
- John Castrilli MLA (Bunbury) – announced 14 March 2016[6]
National
- Terry Waldron MLA (Wagin) – announced 25 November 2014[7]
- Wendy Duncan MLA (Kalgoorlie) – announced 4 December 2015[8]
2013 pendulum
The following Mackerras Pendulum works by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin post-election on a two-candidate-preferred basis.[9]
| Labor seats | |||
| Midland | Michelle Roberts | ALP | 0.1% |
| Collie-Preston | Mick Murray | ALP | 0.1% |
| Butler | John Quigley | ALP | 1.8% |
| West Swan | Rita Saffioti | ALP | 1.9% |
| Albany | Peter Watson | ALP | 2.0% |
| Cannington | Bill Johnston | ALP | 2.1% |
| Girrawheen | Margaret Quirk | ALP | 2.4% |
| Kwinana | Roger Cook | ALP | 2.6% v IND |
| Gosnells | Chris Tallentire | ALP | 2.9% |
| Maylands | Lisa Baker | ALP | 3.1% |
| Victoria Park | Ben Wyatt | ALP | 4.1% |
| Cockburn | Fran Logan | ALP | 4.1% |
| Mirrabooka | Janine Freeman | ALP | 4.6% |
| Kimberley | Josie Farrer | ALP | 5.1% |
| Bassendean | Dave Kelly | ALP | 5.1% |
| Mandurah | David Templeman | ALP | 7.7% |
| Fremantle | Simone McGurk | ALP | 7.9% |
| Warnbro | Paul Papalia | ALP | 8.8% |
| Armadale | Tony Buti | ALP | 9.6% |
| Willagee | Peter Tinley | ALP | 10.6% |
| Rockingham | Mark McGowan | ALP | 13.2% |
Polling
| Date | Firm | Primary vote | TPP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lib | Nat | ALP | Grn | Oth | Lib/Nat | ALP | ||
| November 2016 | Newspoll[10] | 34% | 6% | 41% | 9% | 10% | 48% | 52% |
| October 2016 | ReachTEL[11] | 35.9% | 6.1% | 36.7% | 7.7% | 13.6% | 48% | 52% |
| October 2016 | Roy Morgan[12] | 34% | 5% | 36.5% | 12.5% | 12% | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| August 2016 | Roy Morgan[13] | 34.5% | 6.5% | 35.5% | 12.5% | 11% | 49% | 51% |
| May 2016 | Roy Morgan[12] | 36.5% | 7% | 34% | 12.5% | 10% | 51% | 49% |
| Mar–May 2016 | Newspoll[14] | 40% | 42% | 11% | 7% | 46% | 54% | |
| March 2016 | Roy Morgan[12] | 33.5% | 8% | 37% | 14.5% | 7% | 48% | 52% |
| Mar 2016 | ReachTEL[15] | 37% | 5% | 39% | 13% | 5% | 44% | 56% |
| Oct–Dec 2015 | Newspoll[16] | 37% | 5% | 42% | 10% | 6% | 47% | 53% |
| 9–15 Oct 2015 | Morgan[17] | 37.5% | 4.5% | 32% | 13% | 13% | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| 28–31 Aug 2015 | Morgan | 35% | 7% | 34% | 15% | 9% | 50% | 50% |
| Apr–Jun 2015 | Newspoll | 33% | 7% | 33% | 14% | 13% | 48% | 52% |
| Jan–Mar 2015 | Newspoll | 34% | 6% | 35% | 14% | 11% | 48% | 52% |
| Oct–Dec 2014 | Newspoll | 34% | 8% | 33% | 15% | 10% | 50% | 50% |
| Jul–Sep 2014 | Newspoll | 35% | 6% | 31% | 15% | 13% | 50% | 50% |
| Apr–Jun 2014 | Newspoll | 34% | 6% | 27% | 17% | 16% | 50% | 50% |
| Oct–Dec 2013 | Newspoll | 36% | 8% | 33% | 13% | 10% | 51% | 49% |
| 2013 election | 47.1% | 6.1% | 33.1% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 57.3% | 42.7% | |
| 4–7 Mar 2013 | Newspoll | 48% | 6% | 32% | 8% | 6% | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| Liberal Barnett |
Labor McGowan | |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2016 [10] | 29% | 47% |
| Oct 2016 [12] | 41% | 59% |
| Sep 2016 (RM)[13] | 43% | 57% |
| Mar–May 2016[14] | 32% | 46% |
| Mar 2016 (RT)[15] | 39% | 61% |
| Oct–Dec 2015[16] | 36% | 41% |
| Apr–Jun 2015 | 37% | 43% |
| Jan–Mar 2015 | 38% | 44% |
| Oct–Dec 2014 | 39% | 40% |
| Jul–Sep 2014 | 38% | 41% |
| Apr–Jun 2014 | 36% | 43% |
| Oct–Dec 2013 | 37% | 43% |
| 2013 election | – | – |
| 4–7 Mar 2013 | 52% | 31% |
| Polling conducted by Roy Morgan Research (RM), ReachTEL (RT), or Newspoll (all others). ^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. | ||
| Barnett | McGowan | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | |
| Nov 2016[10] | 28% | 61% | 46% | 33% |
| Mar–May 2016[14] | 31% | 58% | 51% | 28% |
| Oct–Dec 2015[16] | 33% | 54% | 47% | 32% |
| Apr–Jun 2015 | 36% | 57% | 49% | 33% |
| Jan–Mar 2015 | 38% | 53% | 53% | 28% |
| Oct–Dec 2014 | 37% | 49% | 48% | 27% |
| Jul–Sep 2014 | 32% | 56% | 47% | 29% |
| Apr–Jun 2014 | 34% | 56% | 49% | 31% |
| Oct–Dec 2013 | 34% | 54% | 51% | 22% |
| 2013 election | – | – | – | – |
| 4–7 Mar 2013 | 51% | 36% | 49% | 29% |
| Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. | ||||
References
- ↑ "New laws fix state election dates". Abc.net.au. Retrieved 26 January 2012.
- ↑ Antony Green (8 February 2011). "Future election dates". Blogs.abc.net.au. Retrieved 26 January 2012.
- ↑ Green, Antony. "2015 Western Australian state redistibution". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
- ↑ "Joe Spagnolo: Hunt for WA Liberal leader to replace Colin Barnett after deputy Kim Hames confirms he will not contest next state election". Perth Now. 2 August 2014. Retrieved 9 August 2014.
- ↑ "Veteran MP to retire from politics". Perth Now. 17 July 2016. Retrieved 27 October 2015.
- ↑ "Bunbury MLA John Castrilli to retire at next State election". The West Australian. 18 August 2016. Retrieved 14 March 2016.
- ↑ "Waldron to retire from politics". The West Australian. 25 November 2014. Retrieved 25 November 2014.
- ↑ "MP Wendy Duncan reflects on career as prospective candidates circle in Kalgoorlie". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 7 December 2015.
- ↑ Antony Green (23 April 2013). "2013 WA Election – Final results and New Pendulum". Retrieved 3 August 2013.
- 1 2 3 "Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor in Western Australia".
- ↑ "Power poll blow as voters reject power privatisation".
- 1 2 3 4 "Baird Government drops behind for first time in NSW; Barnett in trouble in Western Australia while Andrews Government still riding high in Victoria despite CFA union dispute". Roy Morgan Research. 10 October 2016.
- 1 2 "Now 'too close to call' in New South Wales as Baird support slips while ALP has slight lead in Western Australia and a clear lead in Victoria". Roy Morgan Research. 8 September 2016.
- 1 2 3 Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in Western Australia – The Poll Bludger 12 May 2016
- 1 2 Barnett and Liberals take big hit in poll with McGowan now preferred leader: The West Australian 19 March 2016 - using undedided excluded at ReachTEL: 56-44 to Labor in WA - The Poll Bludger 19 March 2016
- 1 2 3 Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor in Western Australia – The Poll Bludger 4 January 2016
- ↑ "Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States are close". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
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