United States presidential election in Hawaii, 2004

United States presidential election in Hawaii, 2004
Hawaii
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 231,708 194,191
Percentage 54.01% 45.26%

County Results
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—50-60%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Hawaii took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and the District of Columbia, which was part of the 2004 presidential election. Voters chose 4 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Hawaii was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by an 8.7% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. A Republican presidential nominee has carried the state only twice since its statehood (In 1972 and 1984).

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Solid Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Solid Kerry
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat
  5. Newsweek: Solid Kerry
  6. New York Times: Solid Kerry
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Kerry
  8. Research 2000: Solid Kerry
  9. Washington Post: Kerry
  10. Washington Times: Solid Kerry
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Only 4 pre-election polls were taken in the state in the entire 2004 election. Kerry won the first two, which were taken before October, and Bush won the other 2 which were taken in the final month of October. The final RCP average gave Bush leading with a margin of 0.9%. [2] The final 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 48% to 43%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $906,799.[4] Kerry raised $279,877.[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign spent advertising money during the fall campaign. However, with polls showing the race tightening, Vice President Cheney appeared at a campaign rally for the Republican ticket in Honolulu on October 31, 2004. [6] [7]

Analysis

Bush and Cheney did campaign here early on, but not throughout the entire campaign. Hawaii is considered too much of a Democratic stronghold to be a swing state. Hawaii is represented by two Democratic senators and representatives, and there has never been any competition in a senatorial election. However, it should be noted that, despite Bush's loss in the state, he improved upon his performance in the state from 2000. More importantly, he had the strongest showing for a Republican Presidential candidate in the state since 1984 (even doing a little better than his father did in 1988).

Results

United States presidential election in Hawaii, 2004[8][9]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 231,708 54.0% 4
Republican George W. Bush (Inc.) 194,191 45.3% 0
Green David Cobb 1,737 0.4% 0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik 1,377 0.3% 0

Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry Votes Bush Votes Others Votes
Overseas 81.4% 373 16.4% 75 2.2% 10
Hawaii 60.9% 35,116 38.2% 22,032 1.0% 554
Maui 60.7% 28,803 38.3% 18,187 0.9% 440
Kauai 60.0% 14,916 39.2% 9,740 0.9% 220
Honolulu 51.1% 152,500 48.3% 144,157 0.6% 1,890

By congressional district

Kerry won both congressional districts.[10]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 47% 53% Neil Abercrombie
2nd 44% 56% Ed Case

Electors

Technically the voters of Hawaii cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Hawaii is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 4 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Hawaii. All were pledged to and voted for John Kerry and John Edwards:[11]

  1. Frances Kagawa
  2. Joy Kobashigawa Lewis
  3. Samuel Mitchell
  4. Dolly Strazar

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[]
  2. ↑ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/hi_polls.html
  3. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=15
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  6. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  7. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/tracking/10.25.html
  8. ↑ http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2004/2004Stat.htm#11 Clerk of the House of Representatives
  9. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on May 13, 2009. Retrieved July 17, 2009.
  10. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  11. ↑ http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2004_certificates/

See also

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