United States presidential election in Minnesota, 2004

United States presidential election in Minnesota, 2004

November 2, 2004

Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 9 [lower-alpha 1] 0 Popular vote 1,445,014 1,346,695 Percentage 51.1% 47.6%

County Results   Kerry—60-70%   Kerry—50-60%   Kerry—<50%   Bush—<50%   Bush—50-60%   Bush—60-70%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Minnesota took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and the District of Columbia, which was part of the 2004 U.S. presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Minnesota was won by Democrat nominee John Kerry by a 3.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a major swing state in 2004 based on pre-election polling. The state is historically a blue state, as the last Republican to carry the state in a presidential election was Richard Nixon in 1972. However, in 2000 Al Gore carried the state with just 48% of the vote, by a margin of just 2.5%. In 2004, Minnesota was the only state to split its electoral votes, as a faithless elector pledged to Kerry cast a ballot for John R. Edwards, his running mate.

Primaries

• Minnesota Democratic primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[1]

1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
2. Associated Press: Leans Kerry
3. CNN: Kerry
4. Cook Political Report: Toss Up
5. Newsweek: Toss Up
6. New York Times: Toss Up
7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up
8. Research 2000: Lean Kerry
9. Washington Post: Battleground
10. Washington Times: Battleground
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Minnesota was considered a swing state based on its tight poll numbers. In early 2004, Kerry was leading in every poll against Bush, sometimes even reaching 50%. However, in the summer, Kerry was still leading in most of the polls but the gap was very small. It wasn't until late October when Bush was leading him. In the last poll by Rasmussen Reports, Kerry won with 48% to 47%, but left a lot of undecided voters. In the last 3 polling average, Kerry lead 49% to 47%, but with Bush winning 2 of 3.^[2] The last poll average by Real Clear Politics showed Kerry leading 49% to 45%.^[3] Overall polls showed a lot of undecided voters. On election day, Kerry won with 51% of the vote.

Fundraising

Bush raised $2,507,181.^[4] Kerry raised $2,635,150.^[5]

Advertising and visits

Both tickets visited the state 7 times.^[6] A total of $1 million to $3 million was spent each week.^[7]

Analysis

Minnesota is the most consistent blue state in the nation, giving a Democrat its electors in presidential elections since 1976, even in Ronald Reagan's landslide victories. Although in 2000, Al Gore won Minnesota with barely 48% of the vote. Richard Nixon is the last Republican to carry the state in a presidential election. Nixon carried the state in the 1972 election with just 52% of the vote, his second weakest performance in the nation. Only in Massachusetts did Nixon perform weaker as he obtained just 45% in the only state he lost that election.

In 2004, the county results were fairly uniform across the state; only a handful of counties had either Bush or Kerry getting over 60% of the vote, and no county had either candidate with over 70% of the vote. Despite winning the state, Kerry won just three of eight congressional districts: Minnesota's 4th congressional district, Minnesota's 5th congressional district, and Minnesota's 8th congressional district.

Results

United States presidential election in Minnesota, 2004
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic Party	John Kerry	1,445,014	51.09%	9
	Republican Party	George W. Bush (Inc.)	1,346,695	47.61%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	18,683	0.66%	0
	Libertarian Party	Michael Badnarik	4,639	0.16%	0
	Green Party	David Cobb	4,408	0.16%	0
	Constitution Party	Michael Peroutka	3,074	0.11%	0
	Independent	Write Ins	2,530	0.09%	0
	Christian Freedom Party	Thomas Harens	2,387	0.08%	0
	Socialist Equality Party	Bill Van Auken	539	0.02%	0
	Socialist Workers Party	Roger Calero	416	0.01%	0
	Socialist Party USA (Write-in)	Walt Brown (Write-in)	2	0.00%	0
	Democratic Party	John Edwards	0	0.00%	1
Totals			2,828,387	100.00%	10
Voter Turnout (Voting Age Population)					74.2%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Kerry%	Kerry#	Bush%	Bush#	Others%	Others#
Aitkin	48.0%	4,539	50.4%	4,768	1.5%	145
Anoka	46.1%	80,226	52.8%	91,853	1.1%	1,987
Becker	40.2%	6,756	58.3%	9,795	1.5%	250
Beltrami	50.1%	10,592	48.4%	10,237	1.4%	302
Benton	43.8%	8,059	54.6%	10,043	1.5%	282
Big Stone	50.1%	1,536	48.4%	1,483	1.6%	48
Blue Earth	50.9%	16,865	47.5%	15,737	1.6%	517
Brown	37.4%	5,158	60.8%	8,395	1.6%	225
Carlton	62.5%	11,462	36.2%	6,642	1.3%	230
Carver	36.2%	16,456	62.8%	28,510	1.0%	445
Cass	43.0%	6,835	55.8%	8,875	1.3%	200
Chippewa	51.8%	3,424	46.8%	3,089	1.4%	93
Chisago	43.2%	12,219	55.6%	15,705	1.2%	336
Clay	46.8%	12,989	51.8%	14,365	1.4%	383
Clearwater	42.9%	1,871	55.9%	2,438	1.2%	52
Cook	52.5%	1,733	45.1%	1,489	2.5%	81
Cottonwood	42.8%	2,726	55.8%	3,557	1.4%	86
Crow Wing	41.7%	14,005	57.0%	19,106	1.3%	434
Dakota	48.5%	104,635	50.5%	108,959	1.0%	2,252
Dodge	41.7%	4,117	56.7%	5,593	1.6%	158
Douglas	40.5%	8,219	58.1%	11,793	1.5%	297
Faribault	43.4%	3,767	55.2%	4,794	1.4%	120
Fillmore	49.8%	5,825	48.7%	5,694	1.5%	179
Freeborn	55.1%	9,733	43.5%	7,681	1.4%	252
Goodhue	47.3%	12,103	51.3%	13,134	1.4%	371
Grant	48.6%	1,856	49.6%	1,893	1.8%	70
Hennepin	59.3%	383,841	39.4%	255,133	1.2%	8,007
Houston	47.6%	5,276	50.8%	5,631	1.6%	175
Hubbard	41.8%	4,741	56.8%	6,444	1.4%	155
Isanti	40.8%	7,883	57.9%	11,190	1.2%	240
Itasca	54.5%	13,290	43.9%	10,705	1.5%	372
Jackson	45.9%	2,652	52.3%	3,024	1.8%	103
Kanabec	43.5%	3,592	54.9%	4,527	1.6%	129
Kandiyohi	43.7%	9,337	54.8%	11,704	1.4%	308
Kittson	49.7%	1,333	48.7%	1,307	1.6%	42
Koochiching	50.1%	3,662	48.4%	3,539	1.5%	108
La Qui Parle	52.6%	2,390	46.1%	2,093	1.3%	58
Lake	59.6%	4,212	39.2%	2,769	1.3%	90
Lake of the Woods	38.4%	921	59.5%	1,428	2.1%	51
Le Sueur	44.8%	6,466	53.7%	7,746	1.5%	212
Lincoln	46.6%	1,558	51.9%	1,736	1.4%	48
Lyon	41.8%	5,292	56.8%	7,203	1.4%	178
McLeod	36.5%	6,712	62.0%	11,407	1.6%	293
Mahnomen	53.4%	1,339	45.1%	1,132	1.5%	37
Marshall	41.5%	2,308	57.3%	3,187	1.2%	67
Martin	41.5%	4,590	57.1%	6,311	1.3%	146
Meeker	42.9%	5,292	55.6%	6,854	1.5%	188
Mille Lacs	43.5%	5,677	55.1%	7,194	1.5%	194
Morrison	40.5%	6,794	57.9%	9,698	1.6%	266
Mower	61.0%	12,334	37.5%	7,591	1.5%	297
Murray	44.4%	2,218	54.4%	2,719	1.2%	61
Nicollet	49.6%	8,797	49.0%	8,689	1.4%	255
Nobles	42.4%	3,898	56.1%	5,159	1.6%	147
Norman	51.3%	1,954	47.1%	1,794	1.6%	62
Olmsted	46.5%	33,285	52.2%	37,371	1.3%	919
Otter Tail	37.4%	12,038	61.3%	19,734	1.3%	406
Pennington	44.4%	3,117	53.7%	3,767	1.9%	133
Pine	49.8%	7,228	48.4%	7,033	1.8%	257
Pipestone	37.8%	1,900	60.9%	3,066	1.3%	66
Polk	42.9%	6,729	55.7%	8,724	1.4%	215
Pope	49.3%	3,301	49.3%	3,303	1.4%	96
Ramsey	63.0%	171,846	35.6%	97,096	1.3%	3,635
Red Lake	44.2%	963	53.5%	1,164	2.3%	50
Redwood	38.1%	3,104	60.2%	4,898	1.7%	137
Renville	45.4%	3,787	53.1%	4,430	1.6%	132
Rice	53.4%	16,425	45.1%	13,881	1.4%	439
Rock	38.5%	2,000	59.9%	3,111	1.5%	80
Roseau	30.9%	2,442	67.7%	5,355	1.4%	114
St. Louis	65.2%	77,958	33.5%	40,112	1.3%	1,495
Scott	39.5%	23,958	59.5%	36,055	1.0%	626
Sherburne	38.2%	15,816	60.7%	25,182	1.1%	456
Sibley	39.1%	3,109	58.7%	4,669	2.2%	171
Stearns	43.2%	32,659	55.2%	41,726	1.6%	1,192
Steele	42.8%	7,994	55.6%	10,389	1.7%	312
Stevens	47.4%	2,821	50.9%	3,030	1.6%	98
Swift	55.2%	3,165	43.3%	2,481	1.6%	89
Todd	41.2%	5,034	56.9%	6,945	1.9%	235
Traverse	47.9%	1,026	50.3%	1,076	1.8%	39
Wabasha	46.9%	5,548	51.7%	6,120	1.4%	167
Wadena	39.3%	2,791	59.4%	4,214	1.2%	88
Waseca	42.6%	4,179	55.7%	5,457	1.7%	164
Washington	47.8%	61,395	51.2%	65,751	1.0%	1,303
Watonwan	45.0%	2,514	53.2%	2,970	1.8%	99
Wilkin	33.1%	1,169	65.3%	2,303	1.6%	55
Winona	51.9%	14,231	46.3%	12,686	1.8%	505
Wright	38.0%	22,618	60.8%	36,176	1.2%	740
Yellow Medicine	48.6%	2,799	50.0%	2,878	1.4%	81

By congressional district

Bush won 5 of 8 congressional districts.^[8]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	51%	47%	Gil Gutknecht
2nd	54%	45%	John Kline
3rd	51%	48%	Jim Ramstad
4th	37%	62%	Betty McCollum
5th	28%	71%	Martin Olav Sabo
6th	57%	42%	Mark Kennedy
7th	55%	43%	Collin Peterson
8th	46%	53%	Jim Oberstar

Electors

Technically the voters of Minnesota cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Minnesota is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2000 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. Nine were pledged for Kerry/Edwards, but one made a mistake and ended up voting for Edwards/Edwards, and thus became a faithless elector. Minnesota's electors cast secret ballots, so unless one of the electors claims responsibility, it is unlikely that the identity of the faithless elector will ever be known. As a result of this incident, Minnesota Statutes were amended to provide for public balloting of the electors' votes and invalidation of a vote cast for someone other than the candidate to whom the elector is pledged.^[9]

1. Sonja Berg
2. Vi Grooms-Alban
3. Matthew Little
4. Michael Meuers
5. Tim O'Brien
6. Lil Ortendahl
7. Everett Pettiford
8. Jean Schiebel
9. Frank Simon
10. Chandler Harrison Stevens

Notes

1. Although John Kerry won Minnesota's 10 electoral votes, 1 faithless elector voted for John Edwards instead of Kerry

References

1. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[]
2. http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=27
3. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/mn_polls.html
4. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
5. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
6. "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
7. "CNN.com Specials". CNN.
8. http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
9. "208.08, 2008 Minnesota Statutes". Revisor.leg.state.mn.us. Retrieved 2009-05-05.