United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2012

United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2012
Wisconsin
November 6, 2012
Turnout 72.5% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Tammy Baldwin Tommy Thompson
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,547,104 1,380,126
Percentage 51.4% 45.9%

U.S. Senate election results map. Blue denotes counties/districts won by Baldwin. Red denotes those won by Thompson.
U.S. Senator before election

Herb Kohl
Democratic

 Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Baldwin
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2012, alongside a U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl retired instead of running for re-election to a fifth term.

Primary elections were held on August 14, 2012. Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district ran unopposed for her party's nomination. The Republican nominee was former Governor of Wisconsin and former Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson, who won with a plurality in a four-way race. In the general election, Baldwin defeated Thompson and won the open seat. She became the first woman elected to represent Wisconsin in the Senate and the first openly gay U.S. Senator in history. This is also the first time Thompson lost a statewide race.

Background

Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl was re-elected to a fourth term in 2006, beating Republican attorney Robert Lorge by 67% to 30%. Kohl's lack of fundraising suggested his potential retirement.[2] There was speculation that Kohl might decide to retire so as to allow Russ Feingold, who lost his re-election bid in 2010, to run again, although Mike Tate, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, dismissed speculation about Kohl's potential retirement.[3] Ultimately, Kohl announced in May 2011 that he would not run for re-election in 2012.

Democratic primary

Despite speculation that Kohl would retire to make way for his former Senate colleague Russ Feingold, Feingold did not enter the race. Other politicians thought to be likely candidates also declined to run, so Baldwin was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Results

Democratic primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Baldwin 185,265 99.77
Democratic Write ins 424 0.23
Total votes 185,689 100

Republican primary

Results of the 2012 Wisconsin Republican Senatorial Primary with winner indicated by county.

Congressman and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan had stated he would not run against Kohl if Kohl sought reelection, but would contemplate a run if Kohl retired.[15] Ryan later stated that he was "95 percent sure" that he would not run.[16]

Six candidates declared for the seat, although two later withdrew. The contest turned out to be a four-way fight and although a large majority of Republican primary voters consistently expressed a preference for a nominee "more conservative" than Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann split the conservative vote and Thompson narrowly prevailed with a plurality of the vote.[17]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Jeff
Fitzgerald		 Eric
Hovde		 Mark
Neumann		 Tommy
Thompson		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling August 8–9, 2012 557 ± 4.2% 15% 27% 24% 25% 9%
Marquette University August 2–5, 2012 519 ± 4.4% 13% 20% 18% 28% 7%
We Ask America July 31, 2012 1,237 ± 2.8% 12.11% 23.20% 16.66% 22.79% 25.24%
Public Policy Polling July 30–31, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 13% 28% 25% 25% 9%
— 33% 27% 30% 10%
Marquette University July 5–8, 2012 432 ± 4.8% 6% 23% 10% 35% 25%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 564 ± 4.1% 9% 31% 15% 29% 16%
OnMessage Inc.+ June 26–27, 2012 600 ± 4.0% 7% 29% 16% 34% 14%
Marquette University June 13–16, 2012 344 ± 5.4% 10% 14% 16% 34% 25%
Public Policy Polling March 31–April 1, 2012 609 ± 4.0% 18% — 25% 38% 19%
Public Policy Polling February 23–26, 2012 556 ± 4.2% 22% — 22% 39% 17%
32% — 42% — 26%
37% — — 46% 17%
— — 36% 46% 18%
Public Policy Polling October 20–23, 2011 650 ± 3.8% 21% — 29% 35% 11%
— — 39% 43% 17%
28% — 44% — 28%
35% — — 47% 17%
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 362 ± 5.2% — — 39% 47% 13%
Magellan Strategies July 12–13, 2011 638 ± 3.9% 15% — 26% 41% 18%
— — 36% 44% 20%
Poll source Date(s) administered Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Tommy
Thompson		 Someone more
conservative		 Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 30–31, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 29% 58% 13%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 564 ± 4.1% 34% 50% 17%
Public Policy Polling February 23–26, 2012 556 ± 4.2% 37% 47% 17%
Public Policy Polling October 20–23, 2011 650 ± 3.8% 35% 51% 14%

Endorsements

Results

Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tommy Thompson 197,928 34.0
Republican Eric Hovde 179,557 30.8
Republican Mark Neumann 132,786 22.8
Republican Jeff Fitzgerald 71,871 12.3
Republican Write ins 244 0.04
Total votes 582,630 100

General election

Thompson and Baldwin with WISN-TV's Mike Gousha at the October 26 debate.

Candidates

Debates

Baldwin and Thompson agreed to three debates: September 28, October 18 and October 26, all broadcast statewide, and nationwide through C-SPAN.

The first debate originated from the studios of Milwaukee Public Television and was coordinated by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association. It aired on MPTV, Wisconsin Public Television, Wisconsin Public Radio and several commercial stations throughout the state.

The second debate originated from the Theater for Civic Engagement on the campus of the University of Wisconsin–Marathon County in Wausau and was coordinated by WPT/WPR, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Milwaukee's WTMJ-TV. Again it was carried on MPTV, WPT/WPR, and several commercial stations, including WTMJ-TV.

The third debate originated from Eckstein Hall on the campus of Marquette University Law School and was coordinated by WISN-TV in Milwaukee. It aired on that station and across the state's other ABC affiliated stations.

External links

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Tammy Baldwin (D) $14,643,869 $15,204,940 $143,852 $0
Tommy Thompson (R) $9,585,823 $9,582,888 $2,934 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[59]

Top contributors

Tammy Baldwin Contribution Tommy Thompson Contribution
EMILY's List $431,843 Michael Best & Friedrich LLP $36,825
MoveOn.org $171,467 ABC Supply $28,500
University of Wisconsin $117,600 Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld $28,250
J Street PAC $113,758 Direct Supply $27,500
League of Conservation Voters $95,308 Wisconsin Energy Corporation $25,750
Democracy Engine $81,330 American Foods Group $25,000
Council for a Livable World $54,130 Gilead Sciences $23,000
Voices for Progress $25,749 Centene Corporation $20,750
Marshfield Clinic $21,800 BGR Group $20,500
Microsoft Corporation $18,564 C. R. Bard, Inc. $20,000
Source: Center for Responsive Politics[60]

Top industries

Tammy Baldwin Contribution Tommy Thompson Contribution
Women's Issues $915,482 Retired $858,276
Retired $791,756 Leadership PACs $244,804
Lawyers/Law Firms $597,674 Financial Institutions $243,636
Democratic/Liberal $555,792 Lawyers/Law Firms $228,379
Leadership PACs $309,430 Real Estate $227,687
Universities $298,298 Pharmaceuticals/Health Products $204,302
Human Rights Organisations $215,539 Insurance Industry $202,654
Health Professionals $202,654 Manufacturing & Distributing $169,104
Pro-Israel $172,380 Health Professionals $150,149
Business Services $163,238 Lobbyists $138,700
Source: Center for Responsive Politics[61]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Tammy
Baldwin (D)		 Tommy
Thompson (R)		 Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 2–3, 2012 1,256 ± 2.8% 51% 48% — 2%
Angus Reid Public Opinion November 1–3, 2012 482 ± 4.5% 50% 48% 2% —
YouGov October 31–November 3, 2012 1,225 ± 3.1% 48% 47% — 5%
WeAskAmerica October 31–November 1, 2012 1,210 ± 3% 49% 46% — 5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 31, 2012 1,065 ± 3.0% 48% 47% 4% 1%
Rasmussen Reports October 29, 2012 750 ± 4.0% 48% 48% 1% 2%
St. Norbert College October 25–29, 2012 402 ± 5% 43% 46% — 11%
Marquette University October 25–28, 2012 1,243 ± 2.8% 47% 43% — 10%
Rasmussen Reports October 25, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 47% 48% 2% 4%
Angus Reid Public Opinion October 18–20, 2012 502 ± 4.5% 45% 42% 3% 11%
Rasmussen Reports October 18, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 48% 3% 3%
Mason-Dixon October 15–17, 2012 625 ± 4% 47% 45% — 8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll October 15–17, 2012 1,013 ± 3.1% 49% 45% 1% 5%
Marquette University October 11–14, 2012 870 ± 3.3% 45% 46% — 7%
YouGov October 4–11, 2012 639 ± 4.9% 48% 43% — 9%
Rasmussen Reports October 9, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 51% 47% 1% 2%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac October 4–9, 2012 1,327 ± 2.7% 48% 46% — 5%
Public Policy Polling October 4–6, 2012 979 ± 3.1% 49% 46% — 6%
Marquette University September 27–30, 2012 894 ± 3.3% 48% 44% — 6%
We Ask America September 20–23, 2012 1,238 ± 2.8% 52% 40% — 8%
Public Policy Polling September 18–19, 2012 842 ± 3.4% 49% 45% — 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll September 16–18, 2012 968 ± 3.2% 48% 46% — 5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac September 11–17, 2012 1,485 ± 2.5% 47% 47% — 6%
Marquette University September 13–16, 2012 705 ± 3.8% 50% 41% — 5%
Public Policy Polling September 12–13, 2012 959 ± n/a 48% 45% — 6%
YouGov September 4–11, 2012 772 ± n/a 42% 48% — 10%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac August 15–21, 2012 1,190 ± 3.0% 44% 50% 1% 4%
Marquette University August 16–19, 2012 576 ± 4.2% 41% 50% — 9%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012 1,308 ± 2.7% 44% 49% — 7%
Rasmussen Reports August 15, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 43% 54% 1% 3%
Quinnipiac July 31–August 6, 2012 1,428 ± 2.6% 47% 47% 1% 5%
Marquette University August 2–5, 2012 1,400 ± 2.6% 43% 48% — 5%
Rasmussen Reports July 25, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 48% 41% 5% 6%
Marquette University July 5–8, 2012 810 ± 3.5% 41% 45% — 14%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 1,057 ± 3.0% 45% 45% — 11%
Marquette University June 13–16, 2012 707 ± 3.8% 41% 49% — 10%
Rasmussen Reports June 12, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 36% 52% 6% 6%
Public Policy Polling May 11–13, 2012 851 ± 3.4% 42% 47% — 11%
Rasmussen Reports May 9, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 38% 50% 5% 7%
Public Policy Polling April 13–15, 2012 1,136 ± 2.9% 45% 47% — 8%
Rasmussen Reports March 27, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 44% 48% 4% 4%
Rasmussen Reports February 27, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 36% 50% 4% 10%
Public Policy Polling February 23–26, 2012 900 ± 3.3% 46% 45% — 9%
Marquette University February 16–19, 2012 716 ± 3.7% 42% 48% 1% 9%
Rasmussen Reports October 26, 2011 500 ± 4.5% 42% 49% 4% 6%
Public Policy Polling October 20–23, 2011 1,170 ± 2.9% 44% 46% — 10%
Public Policy Polling August 12–14, 2011 830 ± 3.4% 42% 50% — 8%
Public Policy Polling May 19–22, 2011 1,636 ± 2.4% 44% 45% — 11%

Results

2012 United States Senate election, Wisconsin[62]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Tammy Baldwin 1,547,104 51.41% -15.9
Republican Tommy Thompson 1,380,126 45.86% +16.4
Libertarian Joseph Kexel 62,240 2.07% +2.1
Independent Nimrod Allen, III 16,455 0.55% n/a
Other Scattered 3,486 0.12% +0.1
Majority 166,978 5.55%
Turnout 3,009,411 72.5%
Democratic hold Swing

Aftermath

Brian Schimming, the Vice Chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, partly blamed Thompson's defeat on the fact that he had to face a competitive primary whereas Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination: "[Thompson] blew all his money going through the primary. So when he gets through the primary, it was like three weeks before he was up on the air. [Baldwin] piled on immediately." He claimed "If [Thompson] hadn't had as ugly a primary, we could have won that seat."[63]

See also

References

  1. ↑ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Retrieved April 3, 2013.
  2. ↑ Glauber, Bill (November 3, 2010). "Kohl says he'll work with Johnson". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved November 29, 2010.
  3. ↑ Hall, Dee (November 4, 2010). "Feingold won't seek office in 2012, official says". Chippewa Herald. Retrieved November 29, 2010.
  4. ↑ http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/129281483.html
  5. ↑ Burns, Alexander (May 17, 2011). "Barrett closes door on Senate speculation". Politico. Retrieved May 17, 2011.
  6. ↑ Sullivan, Sean (January 18, 2012). "Falk Announces Candidacy in Wisconsin Gubernatorial Race". National Journal. Retrieved January 28, 2012.
  7. ↑ Thompson, Krissah (August 19, 2011). "Russ Feingold not running in 2012". The Washington Post.
  8. ↑ "Baldwin kicks off jobs tour; receives Kagen endorsement". Wispolitics.com. January 5, 2012. Retrieved January 28, 2012.
  9. ↑ Catanese, David (September 15, 2011). "Rep. Kind says no to Senate run". Politico. Retrieved September 15, 2011.
  10. ↑ http://www.rollcall.com/news/Herb-Kohl-Retiring-Senate-Wisconsin-2012-205591-1.html
  11. ↑ http://www.politico.com/blogs/davidcatanese/0511/Herb_Kohl_wont_seek_reelection.html?showall
  12. ↑ http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=250796
  13. 1 2 "Former Bucyrus head unlikely to jump into races next year". WisPolitics.com. November 18, 2011. Retrieved November 21, 2011.
  14. 1 2 "Canvass Results for 2012 PARTISAN PRIMARY - 8/14/2012" (PDF). Wisconsin Government Accountability Board. Retrieved September 22, 2012.
  15. ↑ Gilbert, Craig (April 25, 2009). "Ryan shines as GOP seeks vision". JSOnline. Retrieved June 29, 2010.
  16. ↑ Catanese, David (May 16, 2011). "Ryan telling GOPers he's unlikely to run". Politico. Retrieved May 17, 2011.
  17. ↑ Our Campaigns - WI US Senate - R Primary Race - Aug 14, 2012
  18. ↑ Marley, Patrick (October 11, 2011). "Jeff Fitzgerald announces Senate bid". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved October 11, 2011.
  19. ↑ Hovde emerges as new Senate candidate - Leader-Telegram: Front Page
  20. ↑ Republican Neumann announces Senate run WBAY-TV. August 29, 2011. Accessed August 29, 2011
  21. ↑ Roll Call. August 29, 2011. Accessed August 29, 2011
  22. ↑ "Tommy Thompson Makes Wisconsin Senate Bid Official". September 19, 2011. Retrieved September 19, 2011.
  23. ↑ State Senator Lasee Drops Out Of U.S. Senate Race | News - Channel3000.com
  24. ↑ Kip Smith enters U.S. Senate race | Wisconsin | onPolitix
  25. 1 2 3 4 "Green backs Thompson for Senate". WLUK-TV. Associated Press. September 16, 2011. Retrieved December 18, 2011.
  26. ↑ http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/news/130773358.html
  27. ↑ http://www.rollcall.com/news/Ryan-Out-Thompson-In-Wisconsin-Senate-205679-1.html?pos=hln
  28. ↑ http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/127969353.html?wpisrc=nl_fix
  29. 1 2 3 4 5 Fitzgerald gets key endorsements - Sun Prairie Star - Sun Prairie, WI
  30. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Fitzgerald announces Waukesha endorsements - Sun Prairie Star - Sun Prairie, WI
  31. ↑ http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/237743-freedomworks-endorses-hovde-in-wisconsin The Hill
  32. ↑ CFG PAC endorses Kevin Cramer in North Dakota
  33. ↑ FRC Action PAC
  34. ↑ Blumenthal, Paul (November 11, 2011). "HUFFPOST FUNDRACE -- Perry Spends Big". Huffington Post.
  35. ↑ Sen. Coburn endorses Neumann in Wis. Senate race - The Hill's Ballot Box
  36. ↑ Jim DeMint Backs Wisconsin Senate Hopeful Over Tommy Thompson : Roll Call Politics
  37. ↑ Utah senator endorses Neumann - JSOnline
  38. 1 2 http://wispolitics.com/1006/120126_Neumann_100B.pdf
  39. ↑ Mark Neumann Wins Two Key Endorsements For Senate Race
  40. ↑ Primary Targets | RedState
  41. ↑ Neumann endorsed by Sen. Toomey - JSOnline
  42. ↑ http://wrtl.org/mec/
  43. ↑ http://impeachobamatoday.blogspot.com/2012/08/mark-levin-endorses-mark-neumann-for-us.html
  44. ↑ http://waukesha.patch.com/articles/herman-cain-stumps-for-tommy-thompson-at-waukesha-rally
  45. ↑ http://www.tommyforwisconsin.com/category/endorsements/
  46. 1 2 Endorsements
  47. ↑ Rudy Giuliani, Milwaukee Police Association backing Tommy Thompson - JSOnline
  48. 1 2 3 4 Tommy Thompson Picks Up Senate Endorsements : Roll Call Politics
  49. ↑ Walker, Don (December 15, 2011). "Huckabee endorses Thompson, slams Club for Growth". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved December 18, 2011.
  50. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Seven former governors endorse Thompson - JSOnline
  51. 1 2 3 4 5 6 http://www.tommyforwisconsin.com/2012/06/21/see-the-full-list/
  52. ↑ 'The Nuge' endorses Tommy Thompson - JSOnline
  53. ↑ The Coveted Dick Morris Endorsement
  54. ↑ http://shorewood.patch.com/articles/joe-the-plumber-supports-thompson-because-he-gets-stuff-done
  55. ↑ Lewis, Matt K. (September 30, 2011). "(Updated) NRA president backs Tommy Thompson, who opposed concealed carry". The Daily Caller. Retrieved November 17, 2011.
  56. ↑ GOProud Announces U.S. House Endorsements
  57. ↑ "Kexel Announces Run for US Senate" (PDF). Wispolitics.com. April 20, 2012. Retrieved September 22, 2012.
  58. ↑ "NIMROD ALLEN III INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE FOR U.S. SENATE" (PDF). Wispolitics.com. July 20, 2012. Retrieved September 22, 2012.
  59. ↑ "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Wisconsin". fec.gov. November 26, 2012. Retrieved December 19, 2012.
  60. ↑ Center for Responsive Politics (March 25, 2013). "Top Contributors 2012 Race: Wisconsin Senate". opensecrets.org.
  61. ↑ Center for Responsive Politics (March 25, 2013). "Top Industries 2012 Race: Wisconsin Senate". opensecrets.org.
  62. ↑ http://gab.wi.gov/sites/default/files/County%20by%20County_11.6.12%20Gen%20Election_U.S.%20Senate.pdf
  63. ↑ Alex Roarty (September 26, 2013). "Can Republicans Avoid the Next Todd Akin?". National Journal. Retrieved September 30, 2013.

External links

Official candidate sites
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