Illinois gubernatorial election, 2010

Illinois gubernatorial election, 2010
Illinois
November 2, 2010
 
Nominee Pat Quinn Bill Brady
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Sheila Simon Jason Plummer
Popular vote 1,745,219 1,713,385
Percentage 46.8% 45.9%

County results
Governor before election

Pat Quinn
Democratic

 Elected Governor

Pat Quinn
Democratic

The 2010 Illinois gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Governor Pat Quinn, a Democrat, sought and was elected to a full term.[1] Quinn was elected as the Democratic nominee,[2] the Illinois Green Party nominee was attorney and 2006 nominee Rich Whitney, the Republican nominee was State Senator Bill Brady, the Libertarian Party nominee was Lex Green, and Scott Lee Cohen ran as an independent. Governor Quinn won election to a full term in a very close race, beating Senator Brady by only about 32,000 votes, despite Brady winning in 98 of 102 Illinois counties.[3]

Prior to the general election, the primary election in February 2010 featured extremely close races between candidates for the two largest parties' nominations. Quinn warded off a challenge by Comptroller Dan Hynes by a margin of about 8,300 votes, while Brady won the Republican nomination on the strength of less than a 200-vote margin in a fractured seven-way race.

The election marked the first time since 1852 that Democrats had won three consecutive Illinois gubernatorial elections.[4]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Debates

Democratic candidates Quinn and Hynes debated on January 19.[5] WSIU Public Broadcasting (WSIU (FM)/WSIU-TV) at Southern Illinois University and Illinois Public Media (WILL AM/FM/TV) at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign also co-sponsored two gubernatorial primary election debates.[6][7] Pat Quinn and Dan Hynes debated on January 21, 2010.[8]

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Pat Quinn Lisa Madigan Dan Hynes Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 26, 2010 40% – 41% 19%
Chicago Tribune January 16–20, 2010 44% – 40% 15%
Chicago Tribune December 2–8, 2009 49% – 23% 23%
Simon Public Policy October 16, 2009 33.9% – 16.5% 35.4%
Public Policy Polling April 24–26, 2009 29% 45% – 26%

Results

Democratic primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Pat Quinn (Incumbent) 462,049 50.46
Democratic Dan Hynes 453,677 49.54
Total votes 915,726 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Results

Republican primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Brady 155,527 20.26
Republican Kirk Dillard 155,334 20.24
Republican Andy McKenna 148,054 19.29
Republican Jim Ryan 130,785 17.04
Republican Adam Andrzejewski 111,030 14.47
Republican Dan Proft 59,335 7.73
Republican Robert Schillerstrom 7,420 0.97
Total votes 767,485 100.00

Green primary

Candidates

Results

Green Party primary results[9]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Rich Whitney 5,086 100.00
Total votes 5,086 100.00

General election

Candidates

Campaign

After the February 2 Democratic primary in which incumbent Governor Pat Quinn was re-nominated, attention was drawn to Scott Lee Cohen, the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor. Illinois law required that candidates for Governor and Lieutenant Governor run in separate primary elections, but run as a ticket in the November general election. Cohen was criticized for his having been charged with domestic battery, in which he was accused of holding a knife to the throat of an ex-girlfriend who was also a convicted prostitute. Cohen was also accused by his ex-wife of physical abuse and using illegally obtained anabolic steroids.[13] Quinn and Dick Durbin, Illinois's senior U.S. Senator, both said that Cohen should withdraw his candidacy,[14][15] which he did on February 7.[16] Cohen ran as an independent candidate for the office of Governor against Quinn.[12]

On March 27, 2010, the Democratic State Central Committee chose a replacement candidate, Sheila Simon.[17][18] Dan Hynes, who placed second in the gubernatorial primary, denied interest in replacing Cohen on the ticket.[18] Other names suggested included State Representative Art Turner, who placed second to Cohen in the Democratic primary and then finished second to Simon in committee balloting on March 27, 2010; State Senators Rickey Hendon and Terry Link, State Representative Mike Boland, and electrician Thomas Castillo, all of whom also ran in the primary; U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs official Tammy Duckworth; and State Representative Julie Hamos were suggested as possible replacements.[18] Jeff Melvin, a 21-year retired Army veteran, also applied to the open nominating call for the Democratic Lieutenant Governor position.[19]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Lean R[20] October 28, 2010
Rothenberg Lean R[21] October 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics Toss up[22] October 28, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball Leans R[23] October 28, 2010
CQ Politics Leans R[24] October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source Dates
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Pat
Quinn (D)		 Bill
Brady (R)		 Rich
Whitney (G)		 Other Unde-
cided
Fox News () October 23, 2010 1,000 ± 3.0% 39% 44% 4% 7% 6%
Chicago Tribune () October 18–22, 2010 700 ± 3.7% 39% 43% 4% 7% 6%
Rasmussen Reports () October 20, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 37% 45% 2% 7% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 12, 2010 750 ± 4.5% 40% 46% 2% 9% 3%
Southern Illinois University () September 30 – October 10, 2010 — ± 3.5% 29.8% 38.4% 2.2% 5.9% -
Rasmussen Reports (report) October 4, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 46% 4% 5% 8%
Suffolk University (report) September 30 – October 3, 2010 500 ±4.4% 43% 37% 3% 8% 8%
(Public Policy Polling) September 30, 2010 470 ±4.5% 35% 42% 4% 8% 11%
Chicago Tribune (report) September 24–28, 2010 600 ±4% 39% 38% 3% 8% 12%
CNN/TIME (report) September 24–28, 2010 1,504 ±2.5% 38% 40% 4% 16% 2%
We Ask America () September 13, 2010 1,050 ±2.70% 32% 42% 4% – 16%
Rasmussen Reports (report) September 12, 2010 750 ±4.0% 37% 50% 4% 7% 3%
Chicago Tribune (report) Aug. 28 – Sept. 1, 2010 600 ±4.0% 32% 37% 2% – 19%
Rasmussen Reports (report) August 23, 2010 750 ±4.0% 37% 46% – 6% 11%
Public Policy Polling (report) August 14–15, 2010 576 ±4.1% 30% 39% 11% – 6%
Rasmussen Reports (report) August 9, 2010 750 ±4.0% 35% 48% – 6% 12%
Rasmussen Reports (report) July 27, 2010 750 ±4.0% 37% 44% – 11% 9%
Rasmussen Reports (report) July 7, 2010 500 ±4.5% 40% 43% – 9% 8%
Public Policy Polling (report) June 12–13, 2010 552 ±4.2% 30% 34% 9% – 27%
Rasmussen Reports (report) June 7, 2010 500 ±4.5% 36% 47% – 8% 10%
Research 2000 (report) May 3–5, 2010 600 ±4.0% 36% 39% – – 25%
We Ask America () May 2, 2010 1,050 ±3.02% 31.15% 46.25% 4.81% – 17.79%
Rasmussen Reports (report) April 28, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 45% – 5% 11%
Rasmussen Reports () April 8, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 38% 45% – 7% 10%
Public Policy Polling (report) April 5, 2010 591 ± 4.0% 33% 43% – – 24%
We Ask America () March 10, 2010 798 3.5% 31.58% 44.61% 3.51% – 20.30%
Rasmussen Reports (report) March 8, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 37% 47% – 6% 9%
Research 2000 (report) February 22 –24, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 47% 32% – 1% 20%
The Illinois Poll () February 7, 2010 1,200 ± 2.8% 42% 31% – 4% 23%
Rasmussen Reports (report) December 14, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 45% 30% – 13% 13%

Results

Even though Brady won 98 out of the 102 counties, Quinn narrowly prevailed. Brady won almost everywhere in the state. Brady even won all of the Chicago collar (suburban) counties. However Quinn's huge win in Cook County which encompasses the Chicago Metropolitan Area, proved too much for Brady to overcome. Quinn initially had a large lead when results first began to come in. This is due to the fact that heavily populated areas tend to report their votes faster. Once the more suburban and rural areas came in Brady narrowed the gap, to a very close race, but once again Cook County proved too much for Brady to overcome. Brady conceded defeat later the following day on November 3, when it became clear he would lose. Quinn's win was ranked by Politico as the 7th biggest upset of the 2010 elections. This was also unique in the fact that this marked one of the very few times that the Democrats had won the governor's office in Illinois three consecutive times in a row.

Illinois gubernatorial election, 2010[25]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Pat Quinn (Incumbent) 1,745,219 46.79% -3.00%
Republican Bill Brady 1,713,385 45.94% +6.68%
Independent Scott Lee Cohen 135,705 3.64%
Green Rich Whitney 100,756 2.70% -7.66%
Libertarian Lex Green 34,681 0.93%
Plurality 31,834 0.85% -9.68%
Turnout 3,729,746
Democratic hold Swing

See also

References

  1. 1 2 Sweet, Lynn (2009-02-24). "Gov. Pat Quinn to run in 2010. 'I think I am doing a good job today'". Chicago Sun-Times. Chicago. Retrieved 2009-05-29. 'I have no reason not to run,' Quinn told me when I asked him about the 2010 election
  2. ↑ Long, Ray (2010-02-04). "Hynes concedes Dem governor race to Quinn". Chicago Tribune. Chicago. Retrieved 2010-02-04.
  3. ↑ "Ballots Cast". Elections.il.gov. Retrieved 2013-10-14.
  4. ↑ fr:Résultats des élections des gouverneurs dans l'Illinois
  5. ↑ VIDEO: Democrats running for governor debate, ABC7 Chicago, January 19, 2010
  6. ↑ Public media to air gubernatorial debates in January The News-Gazette, December 30, 2009 Archived January 4, 2010, at the Wayback Machine.
  7. ↑ "Illinois Public Media, WSIU Host Gubernatorial Debate". WILL Press Room (Press release). Urbana, Illinois: University of Illinois. 2010-01-12. Retrieved 2010-11-08.
  8. ↑ WSIU Prepares Voters For February 2nd Primary Election, WSIU
  9. 1 2 3 "Ballots Cast". Elections.illinois.gov. Retrieved 2013-10-14.
  10. ↑ State Journal-Register via Associated Press (2008-11-07). "Bill Brady says he will run for Governor". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved 2009-01-30.
  11. ↑ "Lex Green for Governor of Illinois in 2010". Electlex.com. Archived from the original on February 9, 2010. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
  12. 1 2 https://web.archive.org/web/20100427081155/http://www.suntimes.com/news/metro/2196592,scott-lee-cohen-governor-042410.article. Archived from the original on April 27, 2010. Retrieved April 24, 2010. Missing or empty |title= (help)
  13. ↑ Secter, Bob; Heinzmann, David; Kidwell, David (February 7, 2010). "Behind the man who could be lieutenant governor". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved February 8, 2010.
  14. ↑ Pallasch, Abdon M.; McKinney, Dave (February 4, 2010). "Lt. gov. nominee: I won't drop out of race over abuse history". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved February 8, 2010.
  15. ↑ Esposito, Stefano; Sweet, Lynn; Hussain, Rummana; Konkol, Mark J. (February 6, 2010). "Source: Cohen seeking 'honorable way' to drop out". Chicago Sun-Times. Retrieved February 8, 2010.
  16. ↑ Isenstadt, Alex (February 7, 2010). "Illinois lieutenant governor nominee Scott Lee Cohen withdraws". The Politico. Retrieved February 8, 2010.
  17. ↑ "Clout St: Democrats pick Simon as Quinn's running mate". Newsblogs.chicagotribune.com. 2010-03-27. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
  18. 1 2 3 "Hynes not interested in Illinois". Blogs.suntimes.com. Retrieved 2013-10-14.
  19. ↑
  20. ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  21. ↑ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  22. ↑ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  23. ↑ "2010 Governor Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  24. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  25. ↑ "Ballots Cast". Elections.illinois.gov. Retrieved 2013-10-14.

External links

Primary election debates
General election debates and forums
Official campaign sites
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