United States House of Representatives elections in Indiana, 2010

United States House of Representatives elections in Indiana, 2010
Indiana
November 2, 2010 (2010-11-02)
All 9 Indiana seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election 4 5
Seats won 6 3
Seat change Increase2 Decrease2
Popular vote 972,671 679,462
Percentage 55.65% 38.88%
Swing Increase9.31% Decrease13.01%

The 2010 congressional elections in Indiana were held on November 2, 2010 to determine who would represent the state of Indiana in the United States House of Representatives. Representatives are elected for two-year terms; those elected served in the 112th Congress from January 2011 until January 2013, except for the winner of the 3rd District's special election, who will serve the few remaining weeks of the 111th Congress.

Indiana has nine seats in the House, apportioned according to the 2000 United States Census.

Overview

United States House of Representatives elections in Indiana, 2010[1]
Party Votes Percentage Seats +/–
Republican 972,671 55.65% 6 +2
Democratic 679,462 38.88% 3 -2
Libertarian 84,289 4.82% 0 -
Independents 11,298 0.65% 0 -
Totals 1,747,720 100.00% 9 -

Congressional districts

District 1

Democrat Pete Visclosky has represented this district since 1985. The PVI is D+8. He faced Republican activist Mark Leyva and Libertarian candidate Jon Morris. Visclosky was endorsed by the Northwest Indiana Times and the Indianapolis Star.[2][3]

District 2

Democrat Joe Donnelly has represented this district since 2007 and ran for reelection. He was challenged by Republican nominee State Representative Jackie Walorski, whom he handily defeated.[4]

Obama carried this district with 54% of the vote in 2008.[5]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Joe Donnelly (D) Jackie Walorski (R) Undecided
EPIC-MRA October 20–22, 2010 400 ± 4.9% 48% 43% n/a
EPIC-MRA October 1–3, 2010 400 ± 4.9% 48% 39% 7%
American Action Forum via South Bend Tribune August 16–19, 2010 400 ± 4.9% 46% 44% n/a
The Polling Company July 31-August 3, 2010 309 ± 5.6% 52% 35% 11%

District 3

Republican Mark Souder represented this district from 2003 until his resignation on May 18, 2010. Fellow Republican John McCain carried this district with 56% of the vote in the 2008 presidential elections.[6]

In the Republican primary, car dealer Bob Thomas gave Souder a strong challenge in the primary. An April SurveyUSA poll showed Thomas within six percentage points of Souder. Other Republican candidates included attorney Phil Troyer and Tea Party activist Greg Dickman. Souder won the primary with 48% of the vote. He was to face Democrat Fort Wayne councilman Tom Hayhurst.

However, as Souder announced his resignation from Congress and his resignation as the Republican candidate for Congress on May 18, 2010, the Governor of Indiana set a date for a special election. A caucus will be held to choose the Republican candidate for the Special Election and the General Election. The Special Election is expected to be held concurrently with the General Election in November. The Republican caucus to choose the nominee was held on June 12, 2010. State Senator Marlin Stutzman was selected as the Republican nominee for both the Special, and General Elections.

Republican Primary polling

Poll Source Dates Administered Mark Souder Bob Thomas Phil Troyer Greg Dickman Undecided
Survey USA (Link) April 22–26, 2010 35% 29% 19% 2% 16%

District 3 Special

The 2010 special election for Indiana's 3rd congressional district will be held November 2, contemporaneously with the regularly scheduled general election. The special election was called to fill the vacancy left by Republican Mark Souder, who resigned after an affair with a staffer was revealed.[7]

Democratic candidates

Republican candidates

Nominee

Lost Nomination

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Marlin Stutzman (R) Tom Hayhurst (D) Scott Wise (L) Undecided
Riggs Research October 27–28, 2010 400 ±4.9% 36% 40% 3% n/a
SurveyUSA October 21–25, 2010 400 ±4.9% 57% 32% 7% 2%
American Viewpoint July 19–20, 2010 400 ±4.9% 56% 29% 2% n/a

District 4

Republican Steve Buyer isn't running for re-election. McCain carried the district with 56% of the vote. Todd Rokita, the Republican Secretary of State of Indiana, and Republican State Senator Brandt Hershman filed to run. Cheryle Denise Allen and Mark Seitz have also filed to run for the Republican nomination.[10] Rokita won the primary and will face Democrat David Sanders in the general election.[11]

District 5

Republican Dan Burton has represented this district since 2003. John McCain carried 59% of the vote in 2008.[12]

Former Republican candidate Brose McVey, Indiana Republican Party Executive Director Luke Messer, State Representative Mike Murphy, and 2008 primary challenger John McGoff all formally announced their intention to run. Burton won the primary with just 30% of the vote. He faced Democrat Tim Crawford in the general election.[13]

Republican Primary polling

Poll Source Dates Administered Dan Burton Luke Messer Brose McVey John McGoff Mike Murphy Andy Lyons Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (Link) March 5, 2010 43% 9% 8% 8% 4% 2% 26%

District 6

Republican Mike Pence represented this district since 2003. In the 2008 presidential election, Republican nominee McCain carried the district with 52% of the vote. He faced Democratic nominee Barry Welsh,[14] a minister, and defeated him to keep his seat.

District 7

Democrat André Carson has served since 2008. Obama carried this district with 71% of the vote, considered safe or solid by most sources. He again faced perennial Republican candidate Marvin Scott, who took issue with Carson's Muslim faith during the general election.[15] However, Carson defeated Scott to retain his seat.[16]

District 8

This was an open seat as Democratic incumbent Brad Ellsworth ran (unsuccessfully) for the U.S. Senate. The Democratic nominee was lawyer and State Representative Trent Van Haaften. The Republican nominee was Larry Bucshon, President of Ohio Valley HeartCare.

Bucshon received support from the National Republican Congressional Committee and was named a GOP Young Gun.[17] During the campaign, Bucshon was endorsed by several conservative interest groups and elected officials, including the Indiana Chamber of Commerce Congressional Action Committee, United States Chamber of Commerce, National Right to Life Committee, Indiana Right to Life, Indiana Manufacturers Association, Campaign for Working Families, House Minority Leader John Boehner, U.S. Congressman Mike Pence, and Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels.[18]

Bucshon received significant campaign contributions from medical groups[19]

Bucshon defeated van Haaften by a margin of 21 points, winning all 18 counties in the district.[20]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Trent Van Haaften (D) Larry Bucshon (R) Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies July 21–22, 2010 400 ± 4.9% 27% 43% n/a
OnMessage September 13–14, 2010 400 ± 4.9% 20% 41% n/a

District 9

Democratic incumbent Baron Hill was challenged by Republican Todd Young (campaign site, PVS, WhoRunsGov), Libertarian Greg Knott (campaign site, PVS), and Independent Jerry Lucas (campaign site, PVS). He was defeated, and was defeated by Todd Young.

Primaries

Five-term Congressman Democrat Baron Hill has won in the ninth district since 1998, except for in 2004, when he lost to Republican Mike Sodrel by 1,425 votes. Hill narrowly regained his seat from Sodrel in 2006 and won another race with Sodrel in 2008 by a wider margin. McCain carried the district with only 50% of the vote. In 2010, Sodrel sought another rematch, but lost to former Marine Captain and Orange County Deputy Prosecutor Todd Young in the Republican primary.[21][22] Independent Jerry Lucas, a nurse and Army veteran, has also filed to run.[23][24] Greg Knott entered the race as the Libertarian Party candidate.

Prior to the campaign season, Hill came under increasing public pressure following the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. At public meetings, Hill had to be escorted by state police for his protection and had heated verbal exchanges with the public which made local news on several occasions and leading Hill to refuse to hold additional public meetings in person.[25]

General

Hill launched a series of campaign ads beginning in mid August questioning Young's intentions for the future of Social Security and highlighting a comment made by Young referring to it as a "Ponzi scheme".[26] Local media covering the debate questioned both candidates about their ads; Hill defended his support of healthcare, stimulus, and new regulatory legislation as the correct votes for the future of the country.

Young reconfirmed his position, stating Social Security was indeed a "Ponzi scheme" and needed reform to remain financially viable and called on Hill to explain his financial plans for the nation.[27]

The last week of August, the Young campaign began running adds on radio and television pointing out Hill's record of supporting spending legislation and calling on fiscal restraint in Congress. On the night of August 30, Young's Bloomington campaign headquarters were vandalized; the air conditioner was stolen, the phone and internet lines into the building were cut, the power disconnected.[26] The Young campaign requested that Hill participate in seven town hall style debates.[28] The first scheduled debate will be held October 18 at the Buskirk-Chumley Theater in Bloomington.[29]

In a post-primary June Public Opinion Strategies poll, Hill had a 41-33 lead over Young.[30] An August poll conducted by the Young campaign suggested only 37% of voters believed Hill deserved another term.[27] During the first week of September Real Clear Politics had the race rated as a toss-up.[24]

Polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Baron Hill (D) Todd Young (R) Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies May 25–26, 2010 300 ±5.7% 41% 34% n/a
Public Opinion Strategies July 26–28, 2010 300 ±4.9% 42% 41% n/a
The Hill/ANGA October 16–19, 2010 400 ±4.9% 46% 44% 9%
Public Opinion Strategies October 24–25, 2010 n/a ±5.7% 37% 49% n/a
Results
IIndiana's 9th Congressional District Election, 2010[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Todd Young 118,138 52.2
Democratic Baron Hill 95,387 42.207
Libertarian Gregg Knott 12,377 5.4

References

  1. ↑ "Indiana General Election November 2, 2010". In.gov. Retrieved 2016-11-12.
  2. ↑ "EDITORIAL: We endorse Visclosky, Donnelly". Retrieved 2016-09-22.
  3. ↑
  4. ↑ South Bend Tribune. "Walorski announces plans to run for Congress". South Bend Tribune. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
  5. ↑ Member Profile (1955-09-29). "Profile for Rep. Joe Donnelly, Indiana Democrat, North central - South Bend, parts of Elkhart and Kokomo". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on February 25, 2010. Retrieved 2009-07-28.
  6. ↑ Giroux, Greg (2010-04-29). "Poll: Souder's Small Lead in Indiana - The Eye (CQ Politics)". Blogs.cqpolitics.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
  7. ↑ Cilizza, Chris; Burke, Aaron (May 18, 2010). "Mark Souder to resign after affair". Washington Post.
  8. 1 2 3 4 Isenstadt, Alex (May 18, 2010). "Stutzman to seek Souder seat". Politico 2010.
  9. ↑ "State Rep. Culver enters race for Souder's seat". South Bend Tribune. May 27, 2010.
  10. ↑ Schneider, Mary Beth (February 2, 2010). "Hershman, Rokita among growing field for Buyer's seat". Journal & Courier. Retrieved February 2, 2010.
  11. ↑
  12. ↑ Member Profile (1938-06-21). "Profile for Rep. Dan Burton, Indiana Republican, East central - part of Indianapolis and suburbs". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on July 5, 2009. Retrieved 2009-07-28.
  13. ↑ "Burton gets a win, but not a majority". Archived from the original on May 8, 2010. Retrieved November 9, 2016.
  14. ↑ "The Ball State Daily News - Rep. Pence, challenger Welsh to meet again in midterm elections". Bsudailynews.com. 2010-05-04. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
  15. ↑ Tully, Matthew (September 15, 2010). "Marvin Scott's tactics are ugly, shameless, par for the course". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved January 3, 2011.
  16. ↑ King, Mason (December 22, 2010). "Leading Questions: Carson talks Congress, whips, soft rock". Indianapolis Business Journal. Retrieved January 3, 2011.
  17. ↑ "Candidates". GOP Young Guns. NRCC. Retrieved 27 November 2011.
  18. ↑
  19. ↑ Isenstadt, Alex (2010-10-06). "Doc groups helping their own". Politico.com. Retrieved 2010-10-07.
  20. ↑ "Election Results, United States Representative". Indiana Secretary of State. 2010-11-22. Retrieved 2010-11-30.
  21. ↑ "Indiana poised to play major role in battle for Congress". Fwdailynews.com. 2010-01-11. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
  22. ↑ "Todd Young Bio". Real Clear Politics.com. Retrieved 2010-09-01.
  23. ↑ "November 2, 2010 General Election" (PDF). In.gov. Retrieved 2016-11-12.
  24. 1 2 "Online Guide to Indiana Politics". Politics1. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
  25. ↑ "Hill's Town Hall Meeting on Healthcare". Fox41.com. Retrieved 2010-09-01.
  26. 1 2 Shella, Jim (2010-08-31). "Rep. Todd Young's headquarters hit by vandals". WISHTV8.
  27. 1 2 Arnold, Joe (2010-07-12). "Hill and Young Spar Over Social Security". WHAS 11. Retrieved 2010-09-01.
  28. ↑ "Young Hill Campaign debate schedule". Indiana Public Media. Retrieved 2010-09-01.
  29. ↑ Salomon, Evie (2010-09-20). "Questions for the Debate". Indiana Daily Student. Retrieved 2010-09-22.
  30. ↑ Howley, Brian (2010-08-27). "Baron Hill Walks to Save His Career". Pilot News. Archived from the original on January 1, 2011. Retrieved 2010-09-01.
  31. ↑ "Congressional Election Results". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved 2010-11-08.
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