Minnesota gubernatorial election, 2010
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County results |
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The 2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the 40th Governor of the U.S. state of Minnesota for a four-year term to begin in January 2011. The general election was contested by the major party candidates State Representative Tom Emmer (R–Delano), former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (DFL), and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner. After a very close race, Dayton was elected Governor.[1]
Background
The 2010 gubernatorial election saw an exceptionally large field of candidates seeking endorsement from each party's respective convention. In the DFL and the Independence Parties there were protracted primary fights that extended into August. The state's three major parties participated in the general election along with four minor parties.
Republican primary
After incumbent Governor Tim Pawlenty announced in June 2009 that he would not seek a third term,[2] the field was open for Republicans to seek their party's endorsement. At the Minnesota GOP's off-year state convention in October 2009, former Representative Marty Seifert took first place in a straw poll with 37% of the vote. Representative Tom Emmer took second place with 23%, Patricia Anderson had 14%, and the rest of the participating candidates received less than 10% each.[3][4]
Seifert had another victory in the February 2 precinct caucuses, winning a statewide straw poll of caucus attendees with 50% of the vote, followed by Emmer with 39%. None of the other candidates got beyond single digits.[5] Delegates to the state convention, however, were more closely divided between Emmer and Seifert than the initial straw poll indicated. Both camps claimed a delegate lead throughout the process leading up to the state convention, but the outcome was uncertain and was ultimately decided on the convention floor.[6]
On April 30, Emmer won the Republican endorsement at the party's state convention in Minneapolis. After Emmer won 56% of the vote on the second ballot, Seifert withdrew from the race and threw his support to Emmer. Emmer then chose Metropolitan Council member Annette Meeks as his running mate for lieutenant governor.[7]
Emmer won the August 10 primary, earning a spot on the November ballot.[8]
Candidates
Declared
Withdrew
- Patricia Anderson, former State Auditor[16]
- Bill Haas, former State Representative, Former Mayor of Champlin[17]
- David Hann, State Senator[18]
- Phil Herwig, activist[3][19]
- Mike Jungbauer, State Senator, former mayor of East Bethel[20]
- Paul Kohls, State Representative[21]
- Marty Seifert, State Representative, former State House Minority Leader
Declined
Results
DFL primary
The list of candidates seeking the DFL's nomination was long going into the February 2 caucuses, with over 11 candidates having submitted their names for the candidate preference ballot. Former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton notably declined to be included on the ballot. Minneapolis Mayor R. T. Rybak won the straw poll with 21.8% of the vote, with State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher receiving 20.1%, and "uncommitted" receiving 14.7%. The other each candidates received single-digit support.[32][33]
Former State Senator Steve Kelley dropped out of the race after a disappointing result in the straw poll. State Senator Tom Bakk also dropped out on March 20 after announcing at the St. Louis County Convention that he believed his chances of winning were slim.
On April 24, the DFL State Convention was held in Duluth. State Senator John Marty withdrew from the race after seeing lower than expected support on the first ballot, and State Representative Tom Rukavina withdrew after the fourth ballot, endorsing Kelliher. State Representative Paul Thissen withdrew after the fifth ballot, and before the results of the sixth ballot were announced, Rybak withdrew as well, endorsing Kelliher.[34] Kelliher was subsequently endorsed by the convention. Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner, who had not sought the DFL endorsement but was planning to run in the primary, dropped out two days later. That left Kelliher facing Dayton and former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza in the August primary.
Shortly after the end of the 2010 legislative term, all three major DFL candidates had announced their choices for lieutenant governor. On May 21, Kelliher announced that John Gunyou would be her running mate. Gunyou is Minnetonka City Manager and was state finance commissioner in Republican Governor Arne Carlson's administration.[35] On May 24, Dayton announced Yvonne Prettner Solon as his running mate. Solon is a psychologist and three-term state senator.[36] On May 27, Entenza announced Robyne Robinson as his running mate. Robinson is a small-business owner and former TV anchor.[37]
Dayton narrowly won the August 10 primary, earning the right to serve as his party's nominee.[38] He was formally endorsed by the DFL on August 21.[39]
Candidates
Declared
Withdrew
Declined
Polling
Poll source |
Dates administered |
Mark Dayton |
Matt Entenza |
Margaret Anderson Kelliher |
Undecided |
Sampling error |
Survey USA |
August 2–4, 2010 |
43% |
22% |
27% |
8% |
4.5% |
Minnesota Poll |
July 26–29, 2010 |
40% |
17% |
30% |
13% |
7.3% |
Survey USA |
June 14–16, 2010 |
39% |
22% |
26% |
11% |
4.5% |
Humphrey Institute / MPR |
May 13–16, 2010 |
38% |
6% |
28% |
28% |
8.75% |
Results
At 11:50 p.m. on primary night, Dayton took the lead from Kelliher, who had held an ever-shrinking lead since the polls closed.
Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary results[31]
Party |
Candidate |
Votes |
% |
|
DFL |
Mark Dayton |
182,738 |
41.3 |
|
DFL |
Margaret Anderson Kelliher |
175,767 |
39.8 |
|
DFL |
Matt Entenza |
80,509 |
18.2 |
|
DFL |
Peter Idusogie |
3,123 |
0.7 |
Total votes |
442,137 |
100 |
Independence primary
On Sunday, May 9, 2010, Tom Horner won the endorsement of the Independence Party for governor. His main opponent, Rob Hahn, said he would contest the primary.[51]
Horner won the August 10 primary, defeating Hahn to earn a place on the November ballot.[8]
Candidates
- Rob Hahn and Thomas J. Harens[9][52]
- Tom Horner, public affairs consultant; and Jim Mulder[9][53]
- Phil Ratté and Gayle-Lynn Lemaster[9][54][55]
- John T. Uldrich and Stephen Williams[9]
- Rahn V. Workcuff and Mark F. Workcuff[9]
Withdrew
Declined
Results
General election
Early polls showed Emmer even with his likely DFL opponents, with Horner trailing far behind, and a large percentage of voters undecided.[61][62][63] As the race progressed, polls showed the candidates even, or Dayton with a small but significant lead.[64] The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, CQ Politics and pollster Rasmussen Reports rated the gubernatorial election a tossup,[65][66][67][68][69] while New York Times political statistician Nate Silver gave Dayton an 86% chance of winning and Emmer 14%.[70]
Dayton led Emmer at the close of balloting by 8770 votes (0.42%).[71] The margin of victory was small enough to trigger an automatic recount under state law, but analysts generally thought it unlikely that Dayton's lead would be overturned.[72]
Dayton became just the fourth victorious Minnesota Democrat to win a gubernatorial election with a Democrat in the White House in 28 cycles.[73]
Candidates
Polling
Poll source |
Dates administered |
Tom Emmer (R) |
Mark Dayton (DFL) |
Tom Horner (I) |
Undecided |
Sampling error |
Public Policy Polling |
October 27–29, 2010 |
40% |
43% |
15% |
3% |
2.2% |
SurveyUSA |
October 24–27, 2010 |
38% |
39% |
13% |
9% |
4% |
Minnesota Public Radio |
October 21–25, 2010 |
29% |
41% |
11% |
20% |
3.6% |
St. Cloud State University |
October 10–21, 2010 |
30% |
40% |
19% |
10% |
5.0% |
Minnesota Poll |
October 18–21, 2010 |
34% |
41% |
13% |
12% |
3.9% |
Rasmussen Reports |
October 20, 2010 |
41% |
44% |
10% |
5% |
4.0% |
Survey USA |
October 11–13, 2010 |
37% |
42% |
14% |
7% |
3.7% |
Rasmussen Reports |
October 6, 2010 |
38% |
40% |
15% |
7% |
4% |
Humphrey Institute/MPR |
September 22–26, 2010 |
27% |
38% |
16% |
19% |
3.6% |
Minnesota Poll |
September 20–23, 2010 |
30% |
39% |
18% |
13% |
4.1% |
Rasmussen Reports |
September 22, 2010 |
42% |
41% |
9% |
2% |
4% |
Survey USA |
September 12–14, 2010 |
36% |
38% |
18% |
4% |
3.9% |
Humphrey Institute/MPR |
August 31, 2010 |
34% |
34% |
13% |
19% |
3.6 – 5.3% |
Rasmussen Reports |
August 12, 2010 |
36% |
45% |
10% |
10% |
4.0% |
Survey USA |
August 2–4, 2010 |
32% |
46% |
9% |
13% |
2.7% |
Minnesota Poll |
July 26–29, 2010 |
30% |
40% |
13% |
17% |
4.3% |
Rasmussen Reports |
July 19, 2010 |
36% |
40% |
10% |
14% |
4.5% |
Survey USA |
June 14–16, 2010 |
35% |
38% |
12% |
15% |
2.5% |
Decision Resources, Ltd. |
May 28 – June 2, 2010 |
28% |
40% |
18% |
14% |
3.5% |
Rasmussen Reports |
May 24, 2010 |
37% |
35% |
12% |
16% |
4.5% |
Humphrey Institute/MPR |
May 13–16, 2010 |
31% |
35% |
9% |
25% |
5.8% |
Survey USA |
May 3–5, 2010 |
42% |
34% |
9% |
15% |
4.1% |
Rasmussen Reports |
March 10, 2010 |
35% |
38% |
7% |
20% |
3% |
Hypothetical polling |
- With Entenza
Poll source |
Dates administered |
Tom Emmer (R) |
Matt Entenza (DFL) |
Tom Horner (I) |
Undecided |
Sampling error |
Survey USA |
August 2–4, 2010 |
33% |
38% |
12% |
17% |
2.7% |
Minnesota Poll |
July 26–29, 2010 |
31% |
36% |
15% |
17% |
4.3% |
Rasmussen Reports |
July 19, 2010 |
36% |
37% |
12% |
15% |
4.5% |
Survey USA |
June 14–16, 2010 |
37% |
33% |
12% |
18% |
2.5% |
Decision Resources, Ltd. |
May 28 – June 2, 2010 |
27% |
34% |
19% |
20% |
3.5% |
Rasmussen Reports |
May 24, 2010 |
37% |
34% |
12% |
17% |
4.5% |
Humphrey Institute / MPR |
May 13–16, 2010 |
32% |
28% |
11% |
29% |
5.8% |
Survey USA |
May 3–5, 2010 |
42% |
31% |
10% |
16% |
4.1% |
Rasmussen Reports |
March 10, 2010 |
37% |
28% |
8% |
26% |
3% |
- With Kelliher
Poll source |
Dates administered |
Tom Emmer (R) |
Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL) |
Tom Horner (I) |
Undecided |
Sampling error |
Survey USA |
August 2–4, 2010 |
33% |
39% |
12% |
17% |
2.7% |
Minnesota Poll |
July 26–29, 2010 |
29% |
38% |
13% |
18% |
4.3% |
Rasmussen Reports |
July 19, 2010 |
35% |
40% |
11% |
14% |
4.5% |
Survey USA |
June 14–16, 2010 |
35% |
33% |
12% |
21% |
2.5% |
Decision Resources, Ltd. |
May 28 – June 2, 2010 |
28% |
38% |
17% |
17% |
3.5% |
Rasmussen Reports |
May 24, 2010 |
38% |
36% |
11% |
15% |
4.5% |
Humphrey Institute / MPR |
May 13–16, 2010 |
32% |
29% |
10% |
30% |
5.8% |
Survey USA |
May 3–5, 2010 |
41% |
33% |
9% |
17% |
4.1% |
Rasmussen Reports |
March 10, 2010 |
37% |
34% |
8% |
19% |
3% |
- With Pawlenty
Source |
Date |
Tim Pawlenty |
Margaret Anderson Kelliher |
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA |
May 20, 2009 |
51% |
34% |
- With Emmer
Source |
Date |
Tom Emmer |
Margaret Anderson Kelliher |
Rasmussen Reports |
March 10, 2010 |
37% |
34% |
- With Seifert
Source |
Date |
Marty Seifert |
Margaret Anderson Kelliher |
Rasmussen Reports |
March 10, 2010 |
39% |
35% |
- With Coleman
|
Results
2010 gubernatorial election results, Minnesota[71]
Party |
Candidate |
Votes |
% |
± |
|
DFL |
Mark Dayton |
919,232 |
43.63% |
-2.07% |
|
Republican |
Tom Emmer |
910,462 |
43.21% |
-3.49% |
|
Independence |
Tom Horner |
251,487 |
11.94% |
+5.54% |
|
Grassroots |
Chris Wright |
7,516 |
0.36% |
n/a |
|
Green |
Farheen Hakeem |
6,188 |
0.29% |
-0.21% |
|
Ecology Democracy |
Ken Pentel |
6,180 |
0.29% |
n/a |
|
Resource Party |
Linda Eno |
4,092 |
0.19% |
n/a |
|
Write-ins |
|
1,864 |
0.09% |
|
Total votes |
2,106,979 |
100 |
|
|
DFL gain from Republican |
Certified Results After Recount
2010 gubernatorial election results, Minnesota[71]
Party |
Candidate |
Votes |
% |
± |
|
DFL |
Mark Dayton |
919,232 |
43.63% |
-2.07% |
|
Republican |
Tom Emmer |
910,462 |
43.21% |
-3.49% |
|
Independence |
Tom Horner |
251,487 |
11.94% |
+5.54% |
|
Grassroots |
Chris Wright |
7,516 |
0.36% |
n/a |
|
Green |
Farheen Hakeem |
6,188 |
0.29% |
-0.21% |
|
Ecology Democracy |
Ken Pentel |
6,180 |
0.29% |
n/a |
|
Resource Party |
Linda Eno |
4,092 |
0.19% |
n/a |
|
Write-ins |
|
1,864 |
0.09% |
|
Total votes |
2,106,979 |
100 |
|
|
DFL gain from Republican |
Olmsted County, Minnesota officials recounting votes on November 29, 2010
The recount was carried out by the Minnesota Secretary of State, Mark Ritchie, as part of a State Canvassing Board, which consists of the secretary of state, two justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court, and two judges of a Minnesota district court.[74] The vote totals were not significantly changed, and Dayton was declared the governor-elect.
References
- ↑ CNN: Democrat Dayton wins Minnesota Gov. recount
- 1 2 Kessler, Pat (June 2, 2009). "Pawlenty Won't Seek 3rd Term, So What's Next?". WCCO. Archived from the original on April 28, 2010. Retrieved 2010-11-04.
- 1 2 Rachel E. Stassen-Berger, Star Tribune (2009-10-03). "Seifert is top GOP pick for governor in straw poll". StarTribune.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "KSTP TV – Minneapolis and St. Paul – Seifert Wins GOP Straw Poll". Kstp.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "» Caucus night: Seifert wins; Kelliher, Rybak too close to call". Politicsinminnesota.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "GOP gov hopefuls Seifert and Emmer take neck-and-neck race to convention delegates". 2010-04-28. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "GOP gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer picks Met Council member Annette Meeks as his running mate". TwinCities.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- 1 2 "Star Tribune". Elections.startribune.com. Retrieved 2010-11-04.
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 "Candidates for State Office". Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved 2010-06-30.
- ↑ "News Release". Republicancontract.com. 2010-04-25. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
- ↑ Tim Pugmire (2010-01-11). "Field of gubernatorial candidates continues to grow". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "Leslie Davis for Governor Minnesota". Lesliedavis.org. 2009-06-30. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "GOP Plans Gubernatorial Straw Poll". Saint Paul Pioneer Press. 2009-07-18.
- 1 2 Tim Nelson (2009-07-06). "Rep. Tom Emmer joins governor's race". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved 2010-06-30.
- ↑ http://olesavior.wordpress.com/2010/05/19/my-lt-governor-is-elvis/
- ↑ "Twin Cities, MN | Anderson out of gov's race, says Coleman a factor". kare11.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "Twin Cities, MN | former Minn. GOP lawmaker to run for governor". kare11.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "Hann drops out of Minn. governor's race". StarTribune.com. Associated Press. 2010-02-16. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "Principal Campaign Committee Registration Information". Cfboard.state.mn.us. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "Republican Jungbauer drops run for Minn. governor | Minnesota Public Radio NewsQ". Minnesota.publicradio.org. 2009-11-11. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "Republican Kohls Suspends Campaign For MN Governor". WCCO. 2009-10-29. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ Kevin Duchschere, Star Tribune (2009-07-07). "Seifert brings his farming roots into governor's race". StarTribune.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "Coleman comments on gov run | Polinaut". Minnesota Public Radio. 2009-06-04. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "Norm Coleman ponders 2010 gubernatorial run | Minnesota Public Radio NewsQ". Minnesota.publicradio.org. 2009-10-03. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "Latest Minnesota news, sports, business and entertainment:...". KXMC.
- ↑ "As a gay candidate for governor, Paul Koering says he has no party support".
- ↑ "Ramstad says he won't run for Minn. governor". Star Tribune. July 14, 2009. Retrieved July 14, 2009.
- ↑ "At The Capitol / Sullivan not running for governor in 2010". TwinCities.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "Steve Sviggum interested in running for governor". Rochester Post-Bulletin. June 3, 2009. Retrieved July 5, 2009.
- ↑ Stassen, Rachel E. (2009-11-23). "GOP's Charlie Weaver opts out of governor's race". StarTribune.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- 1 2 "The 2010 Results Maps". Politico.Com. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
- ↑ "Preference Ballot for Governor: Unofficial results:Results Statewide for Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party". Minnesota Secretary of State. 2010-02-03.
- ↑ Post your comment: Title (Optional) Your comments: (2010-02-03). "Caucus night: Seifert wins GOP poll, DFLers vote Rybak". StarTribune.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ Steve Perry (2010-02-03). "Ballot by ballot results". StarTribune.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- 1 2 Doug Grow (2010-05-21). "Kelliher takes a calculated risk with choice of John Gunyou as running mate". MinnPost. Retrieved 2010-05-22.
- 1 2 3 "Dayton picks state Sen. Prettner Solon as running mate | Minnesota Public Radio NewsQ". Minnesota.publicradio.org. 2010-05-24. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
- 1 2 "Entenza chooses Robinson as his running mate". StarTribune.com. 2010-05-27. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
- ↑ "AP: Dayton Wins DFL Nomination For Governor". WCCO. 2010-08-11. Retrieved 2010-11-04.
- ↑ "DFL formally endorses Dayton; candidate gives them red meat before annual barbecue". MinnPost. Retrieved 2010-11-04.
- 1 2 "Former U.S. Senator Dayton Running For Governor | keyc.tv". Keyc.com. 2009-07-31. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ PATRICIA LOPEZ, Star Tribune (2009-04-23). "Patricia Lopez, Entenza announces bid for Governor in '10. ''Star Tribune'', April 23, 2009". Startribune.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ Archived August 2, 2009, at the Wayback Machine.
- ↑ Mannix, Andy (2010-04-26). "Susan Gaertner drops out of governor race". Blogs.citypages.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- 1 2 "Suburban lawmaker Hann wants to be Minn. governor". Minneapolis Star Tribune.
- ↑ "DFLer Steve Kelley drops out of Minn. gov race | Minnesota Public radio NewsQ". Minnesota.publicradio.org. 2010-02-04. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ Star Tribune (2009-07-23). "Thissen launches run for governor; Rukavina explores run". StarTribune.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "Kelliher endorsed: Rybak concedes nomination". Minnpost.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ Star Tribune (2009-07-23). "Thissen launches run for governor; Rukavina explores run". StarTribune.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ Campbell, Bradley (2009-10-08). "Chris Coleman will NOT run for Governor – Minneapolis / St. Paul News – The Blotter". Blogs.citypages.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "Gubernatorial Candidates Ins and Outs (and maybes) of the Race". MinnPost. 2009-07-20. Retrieved 2008-08-10.
- ↑ Mannix, Andy (2010-05-09). "Tom Horner wins IP endorsement". Blogs.citypages.com. Retrieved 2010-11-04.
- ↑ Tim Pugmire (January 14, 2010). "Rob Hahn, publisher, joins gov race for Independence Party".
- 1 2 Bob Von Sternberg, (March 2, 2010). "Tom Horner tops IP gubernatorial field". Minneapolis Star Tribune.
- ↑ "Resume and Biography". Community-2.webtv.net. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
- ↑ "LeMaster". Gayle-Lynn. 2010-08-10. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
- ↑ "Repya turns to fight for IP endorsement in gubernatorial race". Twincities.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "Joe Repya drops out of governor's race". kare11.com. 22 February 2010. Retrieved 23 July 2013.
- ↑ "Who's in for 2010: Third party contenders « Minnesota Independent: News. Politics. Media". Minnesotaindependent.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- 1 2 3 "Who's in for 2010: Third party contenders". Minnesotaindependent.com. Retrieved 2010-05-04.
- ↑ "Election Reporting". Electionresults.sos.state.mn.us. 2010-08-10. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
- ↑ Mark Zdechlik (2010-05-19). "MPR-Humphrey Institute poll: Dayton leads DFL race for governor". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved 2010-05-27.
- ↑ "Dayton Starts with Edge in Democratic Primary and Fall Election" (PDF). Humphrey Institute, University of Minnesota.
- ↑ "KSTP TV - Minneapolis and St. Paul - Exclusive: Poll results in the 2010 Minn. gov. race". Kstp.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
- ↑ "Rasmussen Reports". Rasmussen Reports. 2010-07-19. Retrieved 2010-11-04.
- ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
- ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
- ↑ "MPR News-Humphrey Institute poll: Dayton, Emmer deadlocked | Minnesota Public Radio News". Minnesota.publicradio.org. 2010-08-31. Retrieved 2010-11-04.
- ↑ Stassen-Berger, Rachel (2010-08-01). "Minnesota Poll". Star Tribune. Retrieved 2010-11-04.
- ↑ "Election 2010: Gubernatorial Scorecard". Rasmussen Reports. Retrieved October 29, 2010.
- ↑ "FiveThirtyEight Forecasts: Minnesota Governor". Elections.nytimes.com. Retrieved 2010-11-04.
- 1 2 3 "Minnesota Secretary of State's Office, Retrieved, November 3, 2010". Electionresults.sos.state.mn.us. 1997-02-26. Retrieved 2010-11-04.
- ↑ "Prelude to a recount". Politics in Minnesota. 2010-11-03. Retrieved 2010-11-03.
- ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (December 6, 2013). "Can Dayton Catch Lightning in a Bottle Twice?". Smart Politics.
- ↑ http://www.house.leg.state.mn.us/hrd/pubs/ss/ssrecount.htm Minnesota House of Representatives, Retrieved, November 3, 2010.
External links
- Official campaign websites
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