United States Senate election in Alaska, 2016

United States Senate election in Alaska, 2016

November 8, 2016

Nominee Lisa Murkowski Joe Miller Party Republican Libertarian Popular vote 138,149 90,825 Percentage 44.3% 29.1%   Nominee Margaret Stock Ray Metcalfe Party Independent Democratic Popular vote 41,194 36,200 Percentage 13.2% 11.6%

U.S. Senator before election Lisa Murkowski Republican Elected U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski won re-election to a third term in office.^[1] The primaries were held on August 16.^[2] She was challenged by several candidates, including: Democrat Ray Metcalfe, a former Republican state legislator; Independent Margaret Stock, an attorney; and Libertarian Joe Miller, who defeated Murkowski for the Republican nomination in the United States Senate election in Alaska, 2010.^[3]

Murkowski was re-elected with 44.3% of the vote, becoming the first person in history to win three elections to the U.S. Senate with pluralities, having taken 48.6% in 2004 and 39.5% in 2010.^[4]

Background

After Republican U.S. Senator Frank Murkowski was elected Governor of Alaska in 2002, he appointed his daughter Lisa to the Senate to replace him. She was elected to a full term in 2004 but was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010 by Tea Party challenger Joe Miller.^[5] She ran as a write-in candidate in the general election and was re-elected to a second full term with 39.5% of the vote to Miller's 35.5% and Democratic nominee Scott McAdams' 23.5%.^[6][7] She is one of only two U.S. Senators to be elected via write-in votes, the other being Strom Thurmond in 1954.^[8]

Republican primary

As Murkowski was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010, it has been speculated that she will be challenged from the right again in 2016.^[9][10]

Candidates

Declared

• Paul Kendall^[11]
• Thomas Lamb, candidate for the State House in 2006^[11][12]
• Bob Lochner, mechanic and candidate for the State House in 1996^[11][13]
• Lisa Murkowski, incumbent U.S. Senator^[2]

Withdrew

• Dan Sullivan, former Mayor of Anchorage and nominee for Lieutenant Governor in 2014^[14]

Declined

• David Cuddy, former State Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2008^[15]
• Mike J. Dunleavy, State Senator^[16][17]
• Joe Miller, former magistrate judge, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^{[16][18][19][20]}
• Sarah Palin, former Governor of Alaska and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008^[21][22]
• Sean Parnell, former Governor of Alaska and candidate for Congress in 2008^[23]
• Mead Treadwell, former Lieutenant Governor and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014^[16]

Endorsements

Lisa Murkowski
Governors William Weld, (former) Massachusetts, and 2016 Libertarian Party vice presidential nominee[24] U.S. Senators Dan Sullivan, Alaska[25]

Bob Lochner
Alaska Right to Life[26] Alaska Republican Assembly[27] Bruce Walden, 2016 Veterans Party nominee for U.S. Senate[28]

Results

Republican primary results^[29]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Lisa Murkowski	39,491	71.50
	Republican	Bob Lochner	8,478	15.35
	Republican	Paul Kendall	4,269	7.73
	Republican	Thomas Lamb	2,992	5.42
Total votes			55,230	100

Democratic-Libertarian-Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.

Democratic candidates

Declared

• Edgar Blatchford, founder and former editor and publisher of Alaska Newspapers, Inc., former Mayor of Seward and former Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development^[30]
• Ray Metcalfe, former Republican State Representative, founder of the Republican Moderate Party of Alaska and perennial candidate

Removed

• Richard Grayson, perennial candidate from New York^[11]

Declined

• Mark Begich, former U.S. Senator^{[31][32][33][34]}

Libertarian candidates

Declared

• Cean Stevens, small business owner, nominee for the State House in 2014 and Republican nominee for the State House in 2012^[11][35]

Results

Primary results^[29][36]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Ray Metcalfe	15,198	50.05
	Democratic	Edgar Blatchford	10,074	33.17
	Libertarian	Cean Stevens	5,096	16.78
Total votes			30,368	100

Subsequent events

Cean Stevens was originally the only Libertarian to file, and was the sole Libertarian in the primary. Stevens withdrew after winning the nomination, and the Alaska Libertarian Party nominated Joe Miller as her replacement.^[3]

Third party and independent candidates

Declared

• Breck Craig (Independent)^[37]
• Ted Gianoutsos (Independent), founder of the Veterans Party of Alaska and perennial candidate^[37]
• Margaret Stock (Independent), attorney and retired Army Lt. Colonel^[38][37]

Failed to qualify

• Sid Hill (Independent)^[37]
• Bruce Walden (Veterans Party), retired Army Sergeant and Republican candidate for the State House in 2006^{[37][39][40][28]}
• Jed Whittaker (Independent), commercial fisherman, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1992 and Green Party nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996^[37][41]

Declined

• Mark Begich (Write-in), former U.S. Senator^[42][43]

General election

Fundraising

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on Hand
Lisa Murkowski (R)[44]	$3,666,865	$2,848,780	$2,488,816
Ray Metcalfe (D)[45]	$0	$0	$0
Margaret Stock (I)[46]	$475,144	$364,619	$110,524
Joe Miller (L)[47]	$122	$445	$99,402

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[48]	Likely R	September 9, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49]	Safe R	September 19, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[50]	Safe R	September 2, 2016
Daily Kos[51]	Safe R	September 16, 2016
Real Clear Politics[52]	Safe R	September 15, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lisa Murkowski (R)	Joe Miller (L)	Ray Metcalfe (D)	Margaret Stock (I)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	409	± 4.6%	55%	—	33%	—	—	12%
SurveyMonkey	October 31–November 6, 2016	382	± 4.6%	57%	—	32%	—	—	11%
SurveyMonkey	October 28–November 3, 2016	334	± 4.6%	56%	—	30%	—	—	14%
SurveyMonkey	October 27–November 2, 2016	303	± 4.6%	60%	—	25%	—	—	15%
SurveyMonkey	October 26–November 1, 2016	268	± 4.6%	60%	—	22%	—	—	18%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	300	± 4.6%	52%	—	26%	—	—	22%
Moore Information	October 5–6, 2016	500	± 4.0%	49%	16%	9%	8%	1%	15%
Alaska Dispatch News/Alaska Survey Research	September 28–October 2, 2016	660	± 3.8%	50%	18%	12%	7%	2%	11%
Moore Information	September 13–15, 2016	500	± 4.0%	48%	15%	15%	7%	1%	12%
Moore Information	August 27–29, 2016	500	± 4.0%	56%	—	12%	5%	10%[53]	17%

Endorsements

Lisa Murkowski
Individuals Dan Sullivan, U.S. Senator[54] Bill Weld, former Governor of Massachusetts and Libertarian nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2016[55] Labor unions National Education Association[56] Organizations National Rifle Association[57] United States Chamber of Commerce[58]

Joe Miller

Individuals Amy Demboski, Anchorage Assemblywoman and candidate for Mayor of Anchorage in 2015[59] Paul Kendall, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[60] Tom Lamb, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[60] Bob Lochner, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016[60] Mark Levin, host of The Mark Levin Show Organizations Alaska Republican Assembly[61] Alaska Right to Life[62] Gun Owners of America[63]

Margaret Stock
Individuals Mark Begich, former U.S. Senator[64] Jeff King, Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race champion[65] Organizations The Centrist Project[66]

Results

United States Senate election in Alaska, 2016 ^[67]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Lisa Murkowski (Incumbent)	111,382	44.17
	Libertarian	Joe Miller	74,245	29.44
	Independent	Margaret Stock	34,579	13.71
	Democratic	Ray Metcalfe	28,026	11.11
	Independent	Breck A. Craig	2,027	0.80
	Independent	Ted Gianoutsos	1,385	0.55
	Write-in	Other write-in votes	545	0.22
Majority			37,137	14.73
Total votes			252,189	100
	Republican hold

References

1. Erica Martinson (6 Mar 2016). "Murkowski mines energy industry for major campaign funds". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved 8 March 2016. Murkowski’s main challenger, Stock, is running as an independent
2. "Lisa Murkowski announces that she's running in 2016". AmandaCoyne.com. October 19, 2013. Retrieved October 25, 2014.
3. Baird, Austin (September 6, 2016). "Joe Miller to challenge Murkowski as Libertarian Party nominee". KTUU. Retrieved September 6, 2016.
4. "Murkowski Could Become 1st US Senator with Three Plurality Victories". Smart Politics. October 11, 2016. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
5. Sean Cockerham (August 31, 2010). "It's another Tea Party win as Alaska's Murkowski concedes". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved September 1, 2010.
6. Bohrer, Becky (September 18, 2010). "Murkowski mounting write-in bid for Alaska Senate". Associated Press. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
7. McCormick, John (September 18, 2010). "Murkowski Says She Will Run as Write-In Candidate in Senate Race in Alaska". Bloomberg. Retrieved October 23, 2010.
8. "Murkowski triumphs in Alaska Senate race: Alaska's Murkowski appears to be first write-in candidate to win Senate since 1954". The Seattle Times. November 17, 2010. Retrieved November 18, 2010.
9. "Senate Democrats look to next elections". The Hill. March 27, 2014. Retrieved October 25, 2014.
10. "Republicans Will Need to Sweep to Hold Onto Senate Majority in 2016". National Journal. September 16, 2014. Retrieved October 25, 2014.
11. "August 16, 2016 Primary Candidate List". State of Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved June 1, 2016.
12. Garcia, Eric (January 27, 2016). "Will Pro-LGBT Stances Hurt GOP Senators?". Roll Call. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
13. Reynolds, Casey (February 5, 2016). "Friday in the Sun!!! (Feb 5)". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
14. Martinson, Erica (June 16, 2016). "Ex-Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan drops out of Senate race". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved June 17, 2016.
15. Reynolds, Casey (April 8, 2016). "Friday in the Sun!!! (April 8)". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved April 11, 2016.
16. Pathé, Simone (May 15, 2015). "Murkowski Facing a Primary Puzzle". Roll Call. Retrieved May 15, 2015.
17. Manning, Phillip (January 5, 2016). "Sen. Dunleavey won't challenge Murkowski after all". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved January 6, 2016.
18. Joseph, Cameron (December 28, 2014). "10 senators who could lose in 2016". The Hill. Retrieved February 16, 2015.
19. Quinn, Catie (January 6, 2016). "Joe Miller Mulling Senate Bid, "Not Seriously"". Radio Kenai. Retrieved January 6, 2016.
20. Reynolds, Casey (May 18, 2016). "New signs point to Joe Miller challenging Lisa Murkowski". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved May 24, 2016.
21. Reynolds, Casey (January 1, 2016). "Friday in the Sun!!!! (Jan 1)". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved January 3, 2016.
22. Goddard, Taegan (January 3, 2016). "Palin Hints at Possible Senate Bid". Political Wire. Retrieved January 6, 2016.
23. Herz, Nathaniel (August 22, 2015). "With big campaign war chest, Murkowski forges toward 2016". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
24. http://www.ktva.com/libertarian-vp-candidate-bill-weld-says-supports-republican-murkowski-miller-554/
25. Martinson, Erica (June 7, 2016). "Sullivan on Sullivan: Alaska senator backs Murkowski in U.S. Senate race". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved June 27, 2016.
26. Ruskin, Liz (August 9, 2016). "What $5M? Murkowski's GOP rivals disregard long odds". Alaska Public Media. Retrieved August 11, 2016.
27. "Endorsements". Alaska Republican Assembly. Retrieved June 27, 2016.
28. Walden, Bruce (July 22, 2016). "To all who have been watching this page". Facebook. Retrieved August 11, 2016.
29. "Alaska Senate Races Results". Politico. Retrieved August 16, 2016.
30. Reynolds, Casey (June 1, 2016). "Blatchford Jumps Into U.S. Senate Race As Democrat". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved June 1, 2016.
31. "Losing Democrats Already Being Touted for 2016 Comebacks". National Journal. November 12, 2014. Retrieved November 19, 2014.
32. Joseph, Cameron (February 5, 2015). "Senate Democratic campaign chairman: Majority or bust in 2016". The Hill. Retrieved February 16, 2015.
33. Sullivan, Sean (February 2, 2015). "Why Mark Begich could run for the Senate again". The Washington Post. Retrieved February 16, 2015.
34. Bohrer, Becky (February 16, 2016). "Former Sen. Begich says he won't run for any office this year". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved February 16, 2016.
35. Reynolds, Casey (February 26, 2016). "Friday in the Sun! (Feb 26)". The Midnight Sun. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
36. http://www.elections.alaska.gov/results/16PRIM/data/results.pdf
37. "November 8, 2016 General Election Candidate List". State of Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved September 7, 2016.
38. Kelly, Devin (February 17, 2016). "Anchorage attorney Margaret Stock challenging Lisa Murkowski for Senate". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
39. "Veterans Party of America Nominates Bruce Walden for Alaskan State Senate". PR.com. September 12, 2015. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
40. "Veterans Party Scores Election Win, Readies for 2016". Independent Political Report. November 23, 2015. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
41. Whittaker, Jed (January 11, 2016). "Letter: My candidacy is based on love, not contributions". Juneau Empire. Retrieved February 17, 2016.
42. Pathé, Simone (September 13, 2016). "Mark Begich Doesn't Rule Out Alaska Write-In Campaign". Roll Call. Retrieved September 14, 2016.
43. "Begich won't run for US Senate this fall in Alaska". Las Vegas Sun. September 22, 2016. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
44. "Murkowski, Lisa — Candidate for Senate". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 16, 2016.
45. "Alaska Senate Race". OpenSecrets.org. Retrieved August 16, 2016.
46. "Stock, Margaret — Candidate for Senate". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 16, 2016.
47. "Miller, Joe — Candidate for Senate". Federal Election Commission. Retrieved September 6, 2016.
48. "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 9, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 9, 2016.
49. "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
50. "2016 Senate Ratings (September 2, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2016.
51. "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved September 17, 2016.
52. "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 15, 2016.
53. Cean Stevens (L) 5%, Breck Craig (I) 1%, Ted Gianoutsos (I) 1%, None 3%
54. Martinson, Erica (September 16, 2016). "Sullivan sticking with Murkowski in widening U.S. Senate race". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
55. Bill Weld says he supports Lisa Murkowski over Joe Miller. http://www.ktva.com/libertarian-vp-candidate-bill-weld-says-supports-republican-murkowski-miller-554/. Missing or empty |title= (help)
56. Morrow, Weston (August 23, 2016). "National teachers union endorses Murkowski". Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. Retrieved October 5, 2016.
57. "NRA Endorses Lisa Murkowski for Re-election to U.S. Senate". NRA-ILA. September 28, 2016. Retrieved October 5, 2016.
58. "U.S. Chamber of Commerce Endorses Lisa Murkowski for Senate - Lisa Murkowski". lisamurkowski.com. 25 July 2016. Retrieved 24 October 2016.
59. Athens, Maria (September 13, 2016). "Amy Demboski: "There's Only One Conservative In The U.S. Senate Race"". KATN. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
60. "All Three of Murkowski's Republican Primary Opponents Say They're Voting Joe Miller". Joe Miller for U.S. Senate. September 9, 2016. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
61. "Alaska Republican Assembly Supporting Joe Miller for US Senate". Joe Miller for U.S. Senate. September 12, 2016. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
62. "Alaska Right to Life Endorses Pro-Life Joe Miller Against Pro-Abortion Incumbent Lisa Murkowski in Race for US Senate". joemiller.us. 7 September 2016. Retrieved 24 October 2016.
63. "Joe Miller Endorsed by Gun Owners of America". Joe Miller for U.S. Senate. September 17, 2016. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
64. Martinson, Erica (October 7, 2016). "Democrat former Sen. Mark Begich endorses independent Margaret Stock for US Senate". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved October 9, 2016.
65. Bohrer, Becky (August 19, 2016). "Stock picks up endorsement in battle against Murkowski". Fairbanks Daily News-Miner. Retrieved September 9, 2016.
66. Sherrets, Dane (May 12, 2016). "The Centrist Project Endorses Independent Margaret Stock for U.S. Senate from Alaska". The Centrist Project. Retrieved September 9, 2016.
67. "2016 General Election November 8, 2016 Unofficial Results". elections.alaska.gov. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 15, 2016.

External links

Official campaign websites

• Lisa Murkowski (R) for Senate
• Ray Metcalfe (D) for Senate
• Joe Miller (L) for Senate
• Margaret Stock (I) for Senate
• Breck Craig (I) for Senate
• Ted Gianoutsos (NA) for Senate