United States presidential election in Ohio, 2004

United States presidential election in Ohio, 2004
Ohio
November 2, 2004
 
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote 20 0
Popular vote 2,858,727 2,739,952
Percentage 50.81% 48.71%

County Results
  Kerry—60-70%
  Kerry—50-60%
  Bush—50-60%
  Bush—60-70%
  Bush—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Ohio took place on November 2, 2004 and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 20 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Ohio was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 2.1% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered the Buckeye state as a swing state. The state's economic situation gave hope for Senator Kerry. In the end, the state became the deciding factor of the entire election. Kerry conceded the state, as well as the entire election the morning following election night, as Bush won the state and its 20 electoral votes. The close contest was the subject of the documentary film ...So Goes the Nation, the title of which is a reference to Ohio's 2004 status as a crucial swing state.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Republican
  2. Associated Press: Toss Up
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Toss Up
  5. Newsweek: Toss Up
  6. New York Times: Toss Up
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up
  8. Research 2000: Toss Up
  9. Washington Post: Battleground
  10. Washington Times: Battleground
  11. Zogby International: Tied
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Pre-election polling showed a lot of volatility throughout the general election. In September, Bush was gaining momentum here reaching over 50% in several polls and even reaching double digit margins in some. But in October, Kerry gained back momentum as he started winning many of the polls, leading between 48% to as high as 50%. The last 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 49% to 48%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $7,349,944.[3] Kerry raised $3,428,504.[4]

Advertising and visits

Both candidates campaigned heavily. Bush visited the state 18 times to Kerry's 23 times.[5] Almost every week, over $10 million was spent on television advertising.[6]

Analysis

CNN Exit polling showed that Bush barely won the state. Among male voters, he won with 52%. Among female voters, it was tied 50-50. Also, 53% of the voters approved of Bush's job as president.[7]

Bush dominated in the rural areas, while Kerry dominated and won most of the counties with large populations. Overall, Bush won most of the counties and congressional districts in the state. All the congressional districts Kerry won were in the northern section of the state.[8]

Results

United States presidential election in Ohio, 2004[9]
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican George W. Bush 2,858,727 50.8% 20
Democratic John Kerry 2,739,952 48.7% 0
Independent Michael Badnarik 14,695 0.3% 0
Independent Michael Peroutka 11,939 0.2% 0
Totals 5,625,613 100.00% 20
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 65.3%

Results breakdown

By county

County Kerry% Kerry# Bush% Bush# Others% Others#
Adams 35.7% 4,280 63.8% 7,653 0.6% 66
Allen 33.5% 16,483 66.1% 32,585 0.4% 206
Ashland 34.3% 8,555 64.9% 16,171 0.8% 194
Ashtabula 53.0% 24,061 46.3% 21,039 0.7% 309
Athens 63.2% 18,997 36.1% 10,847 0.7% 200
Auglaize 25.6% 5,904 73.9% 17,012 0.5% 115
Belmont 52.7% 17,574 46.8% 15,589 0.5% 157
Brown 35.9% 7,140 63.6% 12,647 0.5% 105
Butler 33.7% 56,234 65.9% 109,866 0.4% 702
Carroll 44.6% 6,298 54.5% 7,695 0.8% 117
Champaign 37.1% 6,967 62.4% 11,718 0.5% 90
Clark 48.7% 33,534 50.8% 34,938 0.5% 331
Clermont 29.1% 25,885 70.7% 62,946 0.2% 211
Clinton 29.4% 5,417 70.3% 12,938 0.3% 59
Columbiana 47.4% 23,426 52.1% 25,754 0.6% 283
Coshocton 42.3% 6,878 57.1% 9,277 0.5% 87
Crawford 35.7% 7,773 63.7% 13,885 0.7% 143
Cuyahoga 66.6% 448,486 32.9% 221,606 0.5% 3,674
Darke 29.8% 7,849 69.6% 18,307 0.6% 161
Defiance 37.7% 6,975 61.5% 11,393 0.8% 144
Delaware 33.6% 27,048 66.1% 53,142 0.3% 265
Erie 53.4% 21,408 46.4% 18,601 0.2% 67
Fairfield 36.5% 24,774 62.9% 42,697 0.6% 384
Fayette 36.9% 4,334 62.7% 7,375 0.4% 47
Franklin 54.4% 285,800 45.1% 237,252 0.5% 2,772
Fulton 37.5% 8,224 62.1% 13,639 0.4% 90
Gallia 38.3% 5,364 61.3% 8,577 0.4% 51
Geauga 39.4% 19,840 60.2% 30,358 0.4% 221
Greene 38.5% 30,530 61.0% 48,377 0.5% 365
Guernsey 43.5% 7,768 55.8% 9,961 0.6% 111
Hamilton 47.1% 199,499 52.5% 222,404 0.4% 1,731
Hancock 29.0% 10,343 70.5% 25,101 0.5% 162
Hardin 36.5% 4,889 63.0% 8,436 0.4% 60
Harrison 46.6% 3,780 52.7% 4,274 0.7% 55
Henry 33.8% 5,110 65.6% 9,901 0.6% 92
Highland 33.5% 6,194 66.1% 12,212 0.4% 76
Hocking 46.8% 6,173 52.6% 6,935 0.7% 88
Holmes 24.0% 2,695 75.5% 8,466 0.5% 57
Huron 41.4% 10,585 58.0% 14,834 0.7% 173
Jackson 39.8% 5,699 59.9% 8,585 0.3% 49
Jefferson 52.3% 19,019 47.3% 17,184 0.4% 163
Knox 36.3% 9,828 63.1% 17,081 0.6% 157
Lake 48.5% 59,049 51.1% 62,193 0.5% 581
Lawrence 43.7% 12,111 55.8% 15,457 0.5% 138
Licking 37.8% 30,051 61.7% 49,014 0.4% 351
Logan 31.9% 6,825 67.6% 14,471 0.5% 102
Lorain 56.1% 78,965 43.5% 61,196 0.4% 569
Lucas 60.2% 132,536 39.6% 87,106 0.2% 547
Madison 35.6% 6,200 63.9% 11,120 0.4% 78
Mahoning 62.6% 83,069 36.7% 48,712 0.7% 950
Marion 40.8% 11,930 58.7% 17,171 0.5% 157
Medina 42.7% 36,264 56.8% 48,183 0.5% 420
Meigs 41.2% 4,437 58.2% 6,273 0.6% 61
Mercer 24.5% 5,117 74.9% 15,649 0.6% 122
Miami 34.0% 17,611 65.7% 34,005 0.3% 164
Monroe 54.9% 4,243 44.3% 3,424 0.8% 62
Montgomery 50.6% 142,977 49.0% 138,361 0.4% 1,215
Morgan 42.9% 2,873 56.1% 3,757 1.0% 70
Morrow 35.4% 5,775 64.1% 10,475 0.5% 79
Muskingum 42.3% 16,421 57.3% 22,251 0.5% 191
Noble 40.6% 2,654 58.7% 3,841 0.7% 45
Ottawa 47.8% 11,114 51.9% 12,075 0.3% 68
Paulding 36.5% 3,610 62.8% 6,205 0.6% 64
Perry 47.8% 7,257 51.7% 7,855 0.5% 76
Pickaway 37.5% 8,578 62.0% 14,160 0.5% 112
Pike 47.6% 5,989 51.8% 6,519 0.5% 67
Portage 53.1% 40,674 46.4% 35,583 0.5% 389
Preble 34.4% 7,274 65.0% 13,733 0.6% 119
Putnam 23.3% 4,392 76.2% 14,370 0.5% 87
Richland 39.8% 24,645 59.6% 36,892 0.5% 330
Ross 44.1% 13,977 54.4% 17,229 1.5% 463
Sandusky 43.7% 12,653 55.9% 16,198 0.4% 104
Scioto 47.8% 16,823 51.9% 18,257 0.3% 117
Seneca 40.6% 10,958 58.9% 15,885 0.5% 148
Shelby 28.6% 6,534 70.9% 16,204 0.5% 116
Stark 50.6% 95,338 48.9% 92,211 0.5% 907
Summit 56.7% 156,578 42.9% 118,553 0.4% 1,173
Trumbull 61.7% 66,673 37.9% 40,976 0.5% 495
Tuscarawas 43.9% 18,854 55.5% 23,825 0.5% 225
Union 29.5% 6,665 70.1% 15,869 0.4% 96
Van Wert 27.6% 4,094 72.0% 10,678 0.4% 54
Vinton 44.7% 2,651 54.8% 3,251 0.5% 28
Warren 27.6% 26,043 72.1% 68,035 0.4% 341
Washington 41.4% 12,475 58.1% 17,480 0.5% 146
Wayne 38.2% 19,786 61.5% 31,879 0.4% 183
Williams 34.8% 6,481 64.6% 12,040 0.6% 118
Wood 46.4% 29,401 53.0% 33,592 0.6% 353
Wyandot 33.6% 3,707 65.7% 7,256 0.7% 81
John Kerry George W. Bush Total
Counties won 16 72 88
Best score Cuyahoga County (66.6%) Putnam County (76.2%) .
Counties won under statewide margin (2.12%) 1 1 2
Stark County (1.7%) Clark County (2.1%) .
Counties won under nationwide margin (2.46%) 1 1 2
Stark County (1.7%) Clark County (2.1%) .

By congressional district

Bush won 13 of 18 congressional districts.[10]

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 51% 49% Steve Chabot
2nd 64% 36% Rob Portman
Jean Schmidt
3rd 54% 46% Mike Turner
4th 65% 34% Mike Oxley
5th 61% 39% Paul Gillmor
6th 51% 49% Ted Strickland
7th 57% 43% David Hobson
8th 64% 35% John Boehner
9th 42% 58% Marcy Kaptur
10th 41% 58% Dennis Kucinich
11th 18% 81% Stephanie Tubbs Jones
12th 51% 49% Pat Tiberi
13th 44% 56% Sherrod Brown
14th 53% 47% Steven LaTourette
15th 50% 50% Deborah Pryce
16th 54% 46% Ralph Regula
17th 37% 63% Tim Ryan
18th 57% 43% Bob Ney

Electors

Technically the voters of Ohio cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Ohio is allocated 20 electors because it has 18 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 20 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 20 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 20 were pledged for Bush/Cheney.

  1. Spencer R. Raleigh
  2. Joyce M. Houck
  3. Betty Jo Sherman
  4. Gary C. Suhadolnik
  5. Randy Law
  6. Leslie J. Spaeth
  7. David Whipple Johnson
  8. Robert S. Frost
  9. Alex R. Arshinkoff
  10. Phil A. Bowman
  11. Jon Allison
  12. Katharina Hooper
  13. Pernel Jones
  14. Henry M. Butch O'Neill
  15. William O. Dewitt
  16. Karyle Mumper
  17. Owen V. Hall
  18. Merom Brachman
  19. Kirk Schuring
  20. Billie Jean Fiore

Objection to certification of Ohio's electoral votes

On January 6, 2005, Senator Barbara Boxer joined Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio in filing a Congressional objection to the certification of Ohio's Electoral College votes due to alleged irregularities including disqualification of provisional ballots, alleged misallocation of voting machines, and disproportionally long waits in poor and predominantly African-American communities.[11][12] The Senate voted the objection down 1–74; the House voted the objection down 31–267.[11] It was only the second Congressional objection to an entire State's electoral delegation in U.S. history; the first instance was in 1877, when all the electors from three southern states were challenged, and one from Oregon.[11][13] (An objection to a single faithless elector was filed in 1969.)[11]

References

  1. ↑ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW[]
  2. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=39
  3. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  4. ↑ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  5. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/showdown/OH/
  6. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/president/campaign.ads/
  7. ↑ http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/P/00/epolls.0.html
  8. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
  9. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
  10. ↑ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  11. 1 2 3 4 Ted, Barrett (January 6, 2005), "Bush carries Electoral College after delay", CNN, archived from the original on April 23, 2009, retrieved May 23, 2009
  12. ↑ Barbara, Boxer (January 6, 2005), Press Release of Senator Boxer: Statement On Her Objection To The Certification Of Ohio's Electoral Votes, archived from the original on June 7, 2008, retrieved May 23, 2009
  13. ↑ "Electoral Commission Deliberation", Hayes vs. Tilden: The Electoral College Controversy of 1876–1877, HarpWeek, retrieved May 23, 2009

See also

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