United States presidential election in New Jersey, 2008

United States presidential election in New Jersey, 2008
New Jersey
November 4, 2008
 
Nominee Barack Obama John McCain
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Arizona
Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin
Electoral vote 15 0
Popular vote 2,215,422 1,613,207
Percentage 57.3% 41.7%

County Results
  Obama—70-80%
  Obama—60-70%
  Obama—50-60%
  McCain—50-60%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

New Jersey was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 15.53% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. No fundraising money was spent by either campaign, as the state has trended towards the Democratic Party in recent years. A highly affluent and predominantly urban state with an ethnically diverse population, New Jersey has become a reliably blue state, and this was evident again when Democrat Barack Obama comfortably won the state's 15 electoral votes with 57.14% of the vote.

Democratic primary

New Jersey Democratic primary, 2008
New Jersey
February 5, 2008 (2008-02-05)
 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Barack Obama
Home state New York Illinois
Delegate count 59 48
Popular vote 613,500 501,372
Percentage 53.76% 43.93%

The Democratic primary took place February 5, 2008, also known as Super Tuesday. Hillary Clinton won this primary.

Sample primary ballot
Key: Withdrew
prior to contest
New Jersey Democratic presidential primary, 2008[1]
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates[2]
Hillary Clinton 613,500 53.76% 59
Barack Obama 501,372 43.93% 48
John Edwards 15,728 1.38% 0
Joe Biden 4,081 0.36% 0
Bill Richardson 3,366 0.29% 0
Dennis Kucinich 3,152 0.28% 0
Totals 1,141,199 100.00% 107

Republican primary

New Jersey Republican primary, 2008
New Jersey
February 5, 2008
 
Nominee John McCain Mitt Romney Mike Huckabee
Party Republican Republican Republican
Home state Arizona Massachusetts Arkansas
Popular vote 313,459 160,388 46,284
Percentage 55.36% 28.33% 8.17%

The Republican primary took place on February 5, 2008, with 52 national delegates.[3]

Official Results[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
John McCain 313,459 55.36% 52
Mitt Romney 160,388 28.33% 0
Mike Huckabee 46,284 8.17% 0
Ron Paul 27,184 4.06% 0
Rudy Giuliani* 15,516 2.74% 0
Fred Thompson* 3,253 0.57% 0
Total 566,201 100% 52

* Candidate dropped out of the race before the primary

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Democrat[5]
  2. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat[6]
  3. Takeaway: Solid Obama[7]
  4. Election Projection: Solid Obama[8]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Strong Democrat[9]
  6. Washington Post: Solid Obama[10]
  7. Politico: Solid Obama[11]
  8. Real Clear Politics: Solid Obama[12]
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama[10]
  10. CQ Politics: Safe Democrat[13]
  11. New York Times: Solid Democrat[14]
  12. CNN: Safe Democrat[15]
  13. NPR: Solid Obama[10]
  14. MSNBC: Solid Obama[10]
  15. Fox News: Democrat[16]
  16. Associated Press: Democrat[17]
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Democrat[18]

Polling

Pre-election polling was tight early on. However, since October 12, Obama won each poll with a double digit margin of victory and with at least 52%. McCain didn't reach over 42% in that stretch. The final 3 polls found Obama leading with 55% to 39%.[19]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $4,761,251 in the state. Barack Obama raised $13,624,081.[20]

Advertising and visits

Neither candidate spent anything here.[21] The Republican ticket visited the state twice. Obama visited the state once.[22]

Analysis

New Jersey was once one of the most reliably Republican states in the Northeast. From 1948 to 1988, it voted Republican in all but two elections: John F. Kennedy in his narrow victory over Richard Nixon in 1960, and Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide of 1964. However, the brand of Republicanism practiced in New Jersey has historically been a moderate one. As the national party tilted more to the right, the state's voters became more friendly to Democrats. The state narrowly went for Bill Clinton in 1992 and has voted Democratic in every election since then. In all but one election since 1996, the Democrats have carried it by double digits. While Republicans remain competitive at the state and local level, at the presidential level New Jersey is now reckoned as part of the solid bloc of blue states in the Northeast.

Democrats have several structural advantages in New Jersey during presidential elections. The northeastern portion, including Newark, Jersey City, Elizabeth and Paterson, contains more than half the state's population and is heavily Democratic. The southwestern portion, including Camden and Cherry Hill, is also heavily Democratic. These regions have a total of over two million voters between them, making it extremely difficult for a Republican to carry the state. For instance, in 2004 George W. Bush held John Kerry to only a seven-point margin of victory, but was completely shut out in the northeast and southwest. Additionally, the state is split almost down the middle between the largest and fourth-largest markets in the country, New York City and Philadelphia. As a result, statewide races often feature some of the most expensive advertising budgets in the country.

In 2008, unlike in 2004, New Jersey was called for Obama almost as soon as the polls closed.[23] Obama dominated the urban areas of the state, winning Essex County by over 50%, Hudson County by 47%, Camden and Mercer counties by 35%. Obama also won Somerset County, which had voted Republican in every election from 1968 to 2004. Most of the southern portion of the state voted Democratic.

McCain won most of Northwestern New Jersey, winning in Republican strongholds like Morris County and Sussex County (which McCain won by 21%). McCain also won most of the Jersey Shore counties.

At the same time, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg was reelected over Republican Dick Zimmer by a 14.08-percent margin of victory. Lautenberg received 56.03% of the total vote while Zimmer took in 41.95%. Democrats also picked up a vacant U.S. House seat in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district that was previously held by a Republican; Democrat John Adler defeated Republican Chris Myers by a 3.30-percent margin of victory. Adler received 51.65% of the vote while Myers took in 48.35%.

Results

United States presidential election in New Jersey, 2008
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 2,215,422 57.14% 15
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,613,207 41.61% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 21,298 0.55% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 8,441 0.22% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 7,718 0.20% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 3,956 0.10% 0
Green Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 3,636 0.09% 0
Socialist Brian Moore Stewart Alexander 669 0.02% 0
Vote Here Jeffrey Boss Andrea Maria Boss 639 0.02% 0
Socialist Workers Róger Calero Alyson Kennedy 523 0.01% 0
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva Eugene Puryear 416 0.01% 0
Totals 3,877,323 100.00% 15
Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered) 60%/73%

By county

Results of the general election by municipality, darker colors indicate higher win percentage:
-Blue municipalities won by Obama
-Red municipalities won by McCain
-Purple municipality (only Andover Borough) tied by Obama and McCain
Sample ballot for the general election, showing the presidential candidates running in New Jersey
County Obama % Obama # McCain % McCain # Others % Others #
Atlantic 56.9% 67,830 41.8% 49,902 1.3% 1,157
Bergen 54.2% 225,367 44.7% 186,118 1.1% 4,424
Burlington 58.6% 131,219 40.1% 89,626 1.3% 2,930
Camden 67.2% 159,259 31.2% 68,317 1.4% 3,304
Cape May 44.9% 22,893 53.5% 27,288 1.6% 802
Cumberland 60.0% 34,919 38.4% 22,360 1.6% 915
Essex 75.9% 240,306 23.4% 73,975 0.7% 2,181
Gloucester 55.2% 77,267 43.1% 60,315 1.7% 2,364
Hudson 72.8% 154,140 26.2% 52,354 1.0% 2,116
Hunterdon 42.5% 29,776 55.8% 39,092 1.6% 1,147
Mercer 67.3% 107,926 31.3% 50,397 1.4% 2,229
Middlesex 60.2% 193,812 38.4% 122,586 1.4% 4,367
Monmouth 47.5% 148,737 51.2% 160,433 1.4% 4,244
Morris 45.4% 112,275 53.5% 132,331 1.2% 2,913
Ocean 40.1% 110,189 58.4% 160,677 1.5% 4,111
Passaic 60.3% 113,257 38.7% 71,850 1.0% 1,904
Salem 50.9% 16,044 47.0% 14,816 2.1% 672
Somerset 52.4% 79,321 46.3% 70,085 1.3% 2,024
Sussex 38.8% 28,840 59.4% 44,184 1.9% 1,393
Union 63.6% 141,417 35.4% 78,768 1.0% 2,241
Warren 42.0% 20,628 56.0% 27,500 2.0% 980

By congressional district

Barack Obama carried 10 of the state’s 13 congressional districts in New Jersey, including two districts held by Republicans. .

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 34.00% 64.80% Rob Andrews
2nd 44.71% 54.00% Frank LoBiondo
3rd 46.76% 52.14% H. James Saxton (110th Congress)
John Adler (111th Congress)
4th 52.30% 46.49% Chris Smith
5th 53.55% 45.43% Scott Garrett
6th 39.40% 59.49% Frank Pallone, Jr.
7th 47.69% 51.16% Mike Ferguson (110th Congress)
Leonard Lance (111th Congress)
8th 35.89% 63.31% Bill Pascrell
9th 38.08% 61.05% Steve Rothman
10th 12.61% 86.95% Donald M. Payne
11th 53.68% 45.36% Rodney Frelinghuysen
12th 40.86% 58.09% Rush D. Holt, Jr.
13th 24.32% 74.84% Albio Sires

Electors

Technically the voters of NJ cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NJ is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[24] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 15 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[25]

  1. Jose Colon
  2. William Fontanez
  3. Gina Genovese
  4. Wilma Grey
  5. Kevin Halpern
  6. Victor Herlinsky
  7. Stacy Lubrecht
  8. Salaheddin Mustafa
  9. Peter Nichols
  10. William W. Northgrave
  11. Ken Saunders
  12. Ginger Gold Schnitzer
  13. Carl Styles
  14. Shavonda Sumter
  15. Stephen Weinstein

See also

References

  1. ↑ The Green Papers
  2. ↑ New York Times Election Guide 2008
  3. ↑ "New Jersey Republican Delegation 2008". The Green Papers. Retrieved 2008-01-28.
  4. ↑ "Official Presidential Primary Election Results" (PDF). New Jersey Department of State. Retrieved 2008-05-24.
  5. ↑ D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
  6. ↑ Presidential | The Cook Political Report Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine.
  7. ↑ Adnaan (September 20, 2008). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved November 14, 2009.
  8. ↑ Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results
  9. ↑ Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
  10. 1 2 3 4 Based on Takeaway
  11. ↑ POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
  12. ↑ RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
  13. ↑ CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived October 29, 2008, at the Wayback Machine.
  14. ↑ "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  15. ↑ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  16. ↑ "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  17. ↑ roadto270
  18. ↑ Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
  19. ↑ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  20. ↑ Presidential Campaign Finance
  21. ↑ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  22. ↑ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  23. ↑ http://uselectionatlas.org/INFORMATION/ARTICLES/ElectionNight2008/pe2008elecnighttime.php
  24. ↑ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
  25. ↑ U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates
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