United States presidential election in Oregon, 2008

United States presidential election in Oregon, 2008

November 4, 2008

Nominee Barack Obama John McCain Party Democratic Republican Home state Illinois Arizona Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin Electoral vote 7 0 Popular vote 1,037,291 738,475 Percentage 56.75% 40.40%

County Results   Obama—70-80%   Obama—60-70%   Obama—50-60%   Obama—<50%   McCain—<50%   McCain—50-60%   McCain—60-70%   McCain—70-80%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Oregon took place on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 7 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Oregon was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 16.4% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Situated on the West Coast, which has become a reliably Democratic stronghold, Oregon is a relatively blue state. The last Republican presidential nominee to carry Oregon was Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide reelection. Although George W. Bush came within half a percent of Al Gore in 2000, he lost the state to John Kerry by four points, and the Republicans have not seriously contested here since.

Primaries

• Oregon Democratic primary, 2008
• Oregon Republican primary, 2008

Campaign

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

1. D.C. Political Report: Democrat^[1]
2. Cook Political Report: Solid Democrat^[2]
3. Takeaway: Solid Obama^[3]
4. Election Projection: Solid Obama^[4]
5. Electoral-vote.com: Strong Democrat^[5]
6. Washington Post: Solid Obama^[6]
7. Politico: Solid Obama^[7]
8. Real Clear Politics: Solid Obama^[8]
9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Solid Obama^[9]
10. CQ Politics: Safe Democrat^[10]
11. New York Times: Solid Democrat^[11]
12. CNN: Safe Democrat^[12]
13. NPR: Solid Obama^[13]
14. MSNBC: Solid Obama^[14]
15. Fox News: Democrat^[15]
16. Associated Press: Democrat^[16]
17. Rasmussen Reports: Safe Democrat^[17]

Polling

Obama won every single pre-election poll. Since September 22, Obama won each by a double digit margin of victory and at least 52% of the vote. The final 3 polls showed Obama leading 55% to 41%.^[18]

Fundraising

McCain raised a total of $1,258,426 in the state. Obama raised $6,660,622.^[19]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $1,194,908. McCain and his interest groups spent just $159,222.^[20] Neither campaign visited the state.^[21]

Analysis

Voters in Oregon have a strong penchant for advancing the protection of civil liberties and individual freedoms, liberal values that have given Democrats a big edge in the state in recent years. The state once leaned Republican, like most of the Pacific Northwest. It only went Democratic once from 1948 to 1984--during Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide of 1964. However, the state has gone Democratic in every election since 1988, and along with California and Washington it is reckoned as forming a solid bloc of blue states along the Pacific Coast.

On Election Day, Obama carried the state by 16.35 points. Most rural counties favored McCain, though Obama performed far better in this region than John Kerry did in 2004. However, Obama's strong support in the more urban Willamette Valley, home to two-thirds of the state's population, would have allowed him to win the state decisively in any event. The state remains geographically and politically divided by the Cascade Mountains, with eastern Oregon being more rural and less populated and therefore more strongly Republican, while western Oregon is more urbanized and populated and therefore more strongly Democratic. These two areas compose the core of each party's votes: rural Oregon is strongly Republican and very similar culturally to Idaho, while the Willamette Valley--especially the cities of Portland and Eugene--heavily favors the Democrats. While Republicans typically win more counties due to running up large margins in the east, Democrats typically win the state because the Willamette Valley has more people. In 2008, Obama's overwhelming margins in Portland and Eugene, combined with strong support from Portland's suburbs (which function as swing counties), enabled him to win a landslide in a structurally liberal state.

During the same election, Democratic Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives Jeff Merkley defeated incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Gordon Smith by a narrow 3.35-percent margin of victory. Merkley received 48.90% of the vote while Smith took in 45.55 with the remaining 5.24% going to Dave Brownlow of the Constitution Party. At the state level, Democrats picked up five seats in the Oregon House of Representatives while Republicans picked up one seat in the Oregon Senate.

Results

United States presidential election in Oregon, 2008
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama	Joe Biden	1,037,291	56.75%	7
	Republican	John McCain	Sarah Palin	738,475	40.40%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	Matt Gonzalez	18,614	1.02%	0
	Write-ins	Write-ins		13,613	0.74%	0
	Constitution	Chuck Baldwin	Darrell Castle	7,693	0.42%	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr	Wayne Allyn Root	7,635	0.42%	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney	Rosa Clemente	4,543	0.25%	0
Totals				1,827,864	100.00%	7
Voter turnout (Voting age population)						62.9%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Obama	%	McCain	%	Nader	%	Barr	%	Baldwin	%	McKinney	%	Others	%
Baker	2,805	31.96	5,650	64.37	106	1.21	51	0.58	55	0.63	23	0.26	87	0.99
Benton	29,901	64.33	15,264	32.84	427	0.92	214	0.46	169	0.36	169	0.36	334	0.72
Clackamas	103,476	53.93	83,595	43.57	1,750	0.91	717	0.37	692	0.36	284	0.15	1,364	0.71
Clatsop	10,701	57.69	7,192	38.78	249	1.34	101	0.54	70	0.38	68	0.37	167	0.90
Columbia	13,390	54.06	10,413	42.04	307	1.24	123	0.50	202	0.82	74	0.30	259	1.05
Coos	14,401	46.53	15,354	49.61	422	1.36	163	0.53	204	0.66	103	0.33	304	0.98
Crook	3,632	35.09	6,371	61.54	157	1.52	55	0.53	37	0.36	24	0.23	76	0.73
Curry	5,230	42.41	6,646	53.89	174	1.41	57	0.46	83	0.67	26	0.21	116	0.94
Deschutes	38,819	48.66	39,064	48.96	702	0.88	305	0.38	259	0.32	129	0.16	504	0.63
Douglas	20,298	38.34	30,919	58.41	561	1.06	217	0.41	320	0.60	128	0.24	494	0.93
Gilliam	430	38.74	648	58.38	16	1.44	2	0.18	6	0.54	2	0.18	6	0.54
Grant	1,006	25.74	2,785	71.25	30	0.77	15	0.38	39	1.00	2	0.05	32	0.82
Harney	950	25.79	2,595	70.46	51	1.38	29	0.79	21	0.57	10	0.27	27	0.73
Hood River	6,302	64.11	3,265	33.21	112	1.14	31	0.32	44	0.45	21	0.21	55	0.56
Jackson	49,090	48.58	49,043	48.53	844	0.84	425	0.42	601	0.59	224	0.22	820	0.81
Jefferson	3,682	44.27	4,402	52.92	100	1.20	22	0.26	37	0.44	21	0.25	54	0.65
Josephine	17,412	41.41	22,973	54.63	492	1.17	234	0.56	379	0.90	135	0.32	424	1.01
Klamath	9,370	31.87	19,113	65.01	300	1.02	174	0.59	178	0.61	68	0.23	196	0.67
Lake	957	25.95	2,638	71.53	38	1.03	11	0.30	19	0.52	11	0.30	14	0.38
Lane	114,037	62.35	63,835	34.90	1,836	1.00	754	0.41	590	0.32	534	0.29	1,324	0.72
Lincoln	14,258	59.68	8,791	36.80	334	1.40	127	0.53	83	0.35	73	0.31	223	0.93
Linn	22,163	42.64	28,071	54.00	625	1.20	237	0.46	287	0.55	134	0.26	465	0.89
Malheur	2,949	28.27	7,157	68.60	85	0.81	57	0.55	81	0.78	28	0.27	76	0.73
Marion	61,816	49.63	59,059	47.41	1,257	1.01	528	0.42	551	0.44	328	0.26	1,024	0.82
Morrow	1,410%	34.75	2,509	61.83	43	1.06	23	0.57	33	0.81	9	0.22	31	0.76
Multnomah	279,696	76.69	75,171	20.61	4,166	1.14	1,195	0.33	904	0.25	1,207	0.33	2,371	0.65
Polk	17,536	48.43	17,714	48.92	320	0.88	116	0.32	184	0.51	79	0.22	258	0.71
Sherman	385	36.77	634	60.55	8	0.76	5	0.48	6	0.57	1	0.10	8	0.76
Tillamook	7,072	53.18	5,757	43.30	197	1.48	58	0.44	59	0.44	42	0.32	112	0.84
Umatilla	9,484	37.16	15,254	59.77	245	0.96	113	0.44	166	0.65	56	0.22	205	0.80
Union	4,613	36.63	7,581	60.20	119	0.94	63	0.50	85	0.67	23	0.18	110	0.87
Wallowa	1,492	33.42	2,836	63.52	35	0.78	24	0.54	30	0.67	6	0.13	42	0.94
Wasco	5,906	51.90	5,103	44.84	140	1.23	46	0.40	61	0.54	31	0.27	93	0.82
Washington	141,544	59.82	89,185	37.69	1,892	0.80	1,148	0.49	895	0.38	379	0.16	1,589	0.67
Wheeler	281	34.61	498	61.33	11	1.35	9	1.11	5	0.62	1	0.12	7	0.86
Yamhill	20,797	47.78	21,390	49.14	463	1.06	186	0.43	258	0.59	90	0.21	342	0.79

By congressional district

Barack Obama carried four of the state’s five congressional districts in Oregon, all districts held by Democrats.

District	McCain	Obama	Representative
1st	36.27%	61.03%	David Wu
2nd	53.86%	43.21%	Greg Walden
3rd	25.78%	71.39%	Earl Blumenauer
4th	43.08%	53.79%	Peter DeFazio
5th	43.33%	53.95%	Darlene Hooley (110th Congress)
Kurt Schrader (111th Congress)

Electors

Technically the voters of Oregon cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Oregon is allocated 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.^[22] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 7 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:^[23]

1. Michael Bohan
2. Shirley Cairns
3. Joe Smith
4. John McColgan
5. Meredith Wood Smith
6. Frank James Dixon
7. Bernard Gorter

References

1. "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries.". www.dcpoliticalreport.com. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
2. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved January 14, 2015.
3. Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
4. "Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results". www.electionprojection.com. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
5. "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
6. Based on Takeaway
7. "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
8. "Electoral Map". RealClearPolitics. Archived from the original on 5 June 2008.
9. Based on Takeaway
10. "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
11. Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (2008-11-04). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
12. "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
13. Based on Takeaway
14. Based on Takeaway
15. "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
16. "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
17. "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
18. "Election 2008 Polls". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
19. http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=OR&cand_id=P00000001
20. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
21. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
22. "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
23. "U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates".