United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2008

United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2008

November 4, 2008

Nominee Barack Obama John McCain Party Democratic Republican Home state Illinois Arizona Running mate Joe Biden Sarah Palin Electoral vote 15 0 Popular vote 2,142,651 2,128,474 Percentage 49.70% 49.38%

County Results   Obama—70-80%   Obama—60-70%   Obama—50-60%   McCain—<50%   McCain—50-60%   McCain—60-70%   McCain—70-80%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President Barack Obama Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in North Carolina was part of the national event on November 4, 2008 throughout all 50 states and D.C.. In North Carolina, voters chose 15 representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

North Carolina was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with a 0.32% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered the state as a toss-up, or swing state, but few truly believed Obama would win it.

Only 1 of the 18 news/ political organizations listed here correctly predicted the result, an Obama victory. Throughout the general election, the state was heavily targeted by both campaigns. It was one of six Southern states and districts (along with Florida, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and the District of Columbia) that voted for Obama in 2008. A high turnout by African-American voters, bolstered by overwhelming support from younger voters were the major factors that helped deliver North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry the state in 32 years. Prior to 2008, the last Democratic candidate to win North Carolina was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Bill Clinton came within 20,000 votes of winning the state in 1992.

Primaries

• North Carolina Democratic primary, 2008
• North Carolina Republican primary, 2008

Campaign

Predictions

A total of 17 news organizations made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

1. D.C. Political Report: Republican^[1]
2. Cook Political Report: Toss-Up^[2]
3. Takeaway: Toss-Up^[3]
4. Election Projection: Leaning McCain^[4]
5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning Democrat^[5]
6. Washington Post: Toss-Up^[6]
7. Politico: Leaning McCain^[7]
8. Real Clear Politics: Toss-Up^[8]
9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Toss-Up^[6]
10. CQ Politics: Toss-Up^[9]
11. New York Times: Toss-Up^[10]
12. CNN: Toss-Up^[11]
13. NPR: Leaning McCain^[6]
14. MSNBC: Toss-Up^[6]
15. Fox News: Toss-Up^[12]
16. Associated Press: Toss-Up^[13]
17. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up^[14]

Polling

Early on, McCain won almost every single pre-election poll. However, on September 23, Rasmussen Reports showed Obama leading in a poll for the first time. He won the poll 49% to 47%. After that, polls showed the state being a complete toss-up, as both McCain and Obama were winning many polls and no candidate was taking a consistent lead in the state. Commentators attributed the drastic turnaround in the state to the influence of voter unhappiness about the financial crisis and the effectiveness of heavy advertising and organizing to get out the vote by the Obama campaign in the fall election. The final three polls found a tie with both candidate at 49%, which was accurate compared to the results.^[15]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $2,888,922 in the state. Barack Obama raised $8,569,866.^[16]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $15,178,674. McCain and his interest groups spent $7,137,289.^[17] The Democratic ticket visited the state 12 times. The Republican ticket visited the state 8 times.^[18]

Analysis

The winner was not certain even several days after the election, as thousands of provisional and absentee ballots were still being counted. However, when it became evident that McCain would need to win an improbable majority of these votes to overcome Obama's election night lead, the major news networks finally called the state's 15 electoral votes for Obama. North Carolina was the second-closest state in 2008; only in Missouri was the race closer.

Situated in the South, which has become a Republican stronghold in recent elections, North Carolina is an anomaly. While very Democratic at the local and state level, the last Democratic presidential nominee to win the Tar Heel State was Jimmy Carter in 1976; not even the Southern moderate populist Bill Clinton from Arkansas could win North Carolina.

Obama decided early on to campaign aggressively in the state. It paid off quickly; most polls from spring onward showed the race within single digits of difference between the candidates. He also dramatically outspent McCain in the state and had an extensive grassroots campaign of organizing to get out the vote. This was also one of the closest statewide contests of 2008, as Obama captured North Carolina just by 0.32 percent of the vote - a margin of only 14,177 votes out of 4.2 million statewide. Only in Missouri was the race closer, where McCain nipped Obama by less than 4,000 votes, a margin of 0.14 percent.

Republicans have traditionally done well in the western part of North Carolina that is a part of Appalachia, while Democrats are stronger in the urbanized east. When a Democrat wins in North Carolina, almost everything from Charlotte eastward is usually coated blue. Even when Democrats lose, they often still retain a number of counties in the industrial southeast (alongside Fayetteville), the African-American northeast, the fast-growing I-85 Corridor in the Piedmont, and sometimes the western Appalachian region next to Tennessee. For example, a map of Bill Clinton's narrow 1992 loss in North Carolina shows him narrowly winning all these regions.^[19]

Obama did not take the traditional Democratic path to victory. Instead, his main margins came from the cities, where he did particularly well throughout the country. While Obama won only 33 of North Carolina's 100 counties, these counties contained more than half of the state's population.

Obama's victory margin came largely by running up huge majorities in the I-85 Corridor, a developing megalopolis which is home to more than two-thirds of the state's population and casts almost 70 percent of the state's vote. The state's five largest counties--Mecklenburg (home to Charlotte) Wake (home to Raleigh), Guilford (home to Greensboro), Forsyth (home to Winston-Salem) and Durham (home to Durham)--are all located in this area, and Obama swept them all by 11 percentage points or more. In 1992, Bill Clinton had been able to win only Durham County by this margin; he narrowly lost Forsyth and Mecklenburg (the latter was where Obama had his biggest margin in the state). Ultimately, Obama's combined margin of 350,000 votes in these counties was too much for McCain to overcome.

McCain did well in the Charlotte suburbs, Appalachian foothills and mountain country; he carried all but four counties west of Winston-Salem. Aside from the I-85 Corridor, Obama's results were mediocre in the traditional Democratic base. He lost badly in Appalachia, mirroring the difficulties he had throughout this region. Obama won only three counties in this region, one of which was Buncombe County, home to Asheville, the largest city in the region and a destination for retirees from the North. In the Fayetteville area, he did as well as Al Gore (who had lost North Carolina by double-digits).

Obama did not rely on the traditional Democratic base but rather a new coalition of city voters to win North Carolina. If he had not taken the five largest counties, Obama would have lost the state by a considerable margin; instead, he pulled off the narrowest victory by creating a unique coalition of voters. He particularly attracted highly affluent and educated migrants from the Northeast, who traditionally tend to vote Democratic; as well as African Americans, Hispanics (an increasing population in the state), and college students, voting blocs who had overwhelmingly supported him during the course of the 2008 Democratic presidential primary.

During the same election, Democrats picked up a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in North Carolina's 8th congressional district, where incumbent Republican Robin Hayes was ousted by Democrat Larry Kissell, a high school social studies teacher who almost toppled Hayes in 2006. Kissell received 55.38% of the vote while Hayes took in 44.62%, a 10.76-percent difference. Democrats held onto the Governor's Mansion; term-limited incumbent Democratic Governor Mike Easley was ineligible to seek a third term but Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue defeated Republican Pat McCrory, the incumbent mayor of Charlotte. Perdue received 50.23% of the vote while McCrory took 46.90%, with the remaining 2.86% going to Libertarian Michael Munger.

In a highly targeted U.S. Senate race, Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan defeated incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole by a wider-than-anticipated margin - by 8.47 points. Hagan received 52.65% while Dole took 44.18%. The race received widespread attention after the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) ran its notorious "Godless" ad that accused Hagan, a Sunday school teacher, of accepting money from atheists and accused her of being an atheist. The adverse reaction resulting from the ad was considered a major factor contributing to Dole's defeat. At the state level, Democrats increased their gains in the North Carolina General Assembly, picking up five seats in the North Carolina House of Representatives and one seat in the North Carolina Senate.Upon gaining power in 2010,GOP regulators found 35,000 democrat voters voted both in NC and other states,with matching names,mostly college students,thus unless they voted for McCain,Obama lost.

According to exit polls, more than 95% of African American voters cast ballots for Obama. This played a critical role in North Carolina, as 95% of the state's registered African-American voters turned out, with Obama carrying an unprecedented 100% of African-American women, as well as younger African Americans aged 18 to 29, according to exit polling. Comparatively, the overall turnout of voters statewide was 69%.^[20]

Results

United States presidential election in North Carolina, 2008
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	Barack Obama	Joe Biden	2,142,651	49.70%	15
	Republican	John McCain	Sarah Palin	2,128,474	49.38%	0
	Libertarian	Bob Barr	Wayne Allyn Root	25,722	0.60%	0
	Write-ins	Write-ins		12,292	0.29%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader (Write-in)	Matt Gonzalez	1,454	0.03%	0
	Green	Cynthia McKinney (Write-in)	Rosa Clemente	158	0.00%	0
	Others	Others		38	0.00%	0
Totals				4,310,789	100.00%	15
Voter turnout (Voting age population)						63.0%

Results breakdown

By county

County	Obama%	Obama#	McCain%	McCain#	Total
Alamance	45.3%	28,590	54.7%	34,501	63,091
Alexander	30.5%	5,153	69.5%	11,747	16,900
Alleghany	39.3%	2,017	60.7%	3,117	5,134
Anson	60.7%	6,293	39.3%	4,067	10,360
Ashe	38.1%	4,861	61.9%	7,885	12,746
Avery	27.8%	2,163	72.2%	5,617	7,780
Beaufort	41.2%	9,426	58.8%	13,437	22,863
Bertie	65.2%	6,248	34.8%	3,338	9,586
Bladen	51.0%	7,846	49.0%	7,530	15,376
Brunswick	41.0%	21,280	59.0%	30,662	51,942
Buncombe	57.1%	69,415	42.9%	52,236	121,651
Burke	40.2%	14,623	59.8%	21,766	36,389
Cabarrus	40.8%	31,191	59.2%	45,340	76,531
Caldwell	34.9%	12,007	65.1%	22,397	34,404
Camden	33.7%	1,587	66.3%	3,118	4,705
Carteret	32.6%	11,079	67.4%	22,868	33,947
Caswell	51.4%	5,466	48.6%	5,177	10,643
Catawba	37.3%	25,535	62.7%	42,843	68,378
Chatham	54.9%	17,783	45.1%	14,591	32,374
Cherokee	30.4%	3,748	69.6%	8,591	12,339
Chowan	49.3%	3,652	50.7%	3,751	7,403
Clay	31.9%	1,731	68.1%	3,692	5,423
Cleveland	40.0%	17,274	60.0%	25,950	43,224
Columbus	46.0%	11,088	54.0%	12,998	24,086
Craven	42.8%	17,335	57.2%	23,163	40,498
Cumberland	58.9%	73,926	41.1%	51,596	125,522
Currituck	34.0%	3,685	66.0%	7,159	10,844
Dare	44.6%	7,760	55.4%	9,621	17,381
Davidson	33.0%	22,192	67.0%	45,135	67,327
Davie	30.6%	6,102	69.4%	13,846	19,948
Duplin	45.2%	8,866	54.8%	10,734	19,600
Durham	76.1%	102,237	23.9%	32,040	134,277
Edgecombe	67.4%	17,365	32.6%	8,416	25,781
Forsyth	55.3%	90,712	44.7%	73,304	164,016
Franklin	49.7%	13,022	50.3%	13,183	26,205
Gaston	37.4%	31,247	62.6%	52,220	83,467
Gates	52.6%	2,827	47.4%	2,546	5,373
Graham	30.9%	1,265	69.1%	2,824	4,089
Granville	53.4%	13,010	46.6%	11,373	24,383
Greene	47.0%	3,774	53.0%	4,258	8,032
Guilford	59.2%	141,680	40.8%	97,511	239,191
Halifax	63.9%	15,726	36.1%	8,867	24,593
Harnett	41.5%	16,519	58.5%	23,311	39,830
Haywood	46.1%	12,724	53.9%	14,902	27,626
Henderson	39.4%	20,062	60.6%	30,903	50,965
Hertford	70.8%	7,479	29.2%	3,083	10,562
Hoke	59.6%	9,133	40.4%	6,197	15,330
Hyde	50.5%	1,225	49.5%	1,203	2,428
Iredell	37.7%	27,201	62.3%	44,979	72,180
Jackson	52.7%	8,671	47.3%	7,793	16,464
Johnston	38.0%	26,475	62.0%	43,164	69,639
Jones	45.7%	2,364	54.3%	2,807	5,171
Lee	45.8%	10,703	54.2%	12,652	23,355
Lenoir	49.8%	13,157	50.2%	13,281	26,438
Lincoln	33.1%	11,674	66.9%	23,561	35,235
Macon	39.2%	6,603	60.8%	10,262	16,865
Madison	49.2%	5,011	50.8%	5,175	10,186
Martin	52.3%	6,488	47.7%	5,914	12,402
McDowell	36.4%	6,514	63.6%	11,382	17,896
Mecklenburg	62.3%	252,642	37.7%	152,957	405,599
Mitchell	28.9%	2,220	71.1%	5,472	7,692
Montgomery	44.3%	4,870	55.7%	6,125	10,995
Moore	39.2%	17,534	60.8%	27,165	44,699
Nash	49.3%	23,013	50.7%	23,660	46,673
New Hanover	49.3%	48,588	50.7%	50,004	98,592
Northampton	65.3%	6,893	34.7%	3,662	10,555
Onslow	39.2%	19,296	60.8%	29,942	49,238
Orange	72.6%	53,712	27.4%	20,226	73,938
Pamlico	42.5%	2,820	57.5%	3,809	6,629
Pasquotank	56.8%	10,170	43.2%	7,720	17,890
Pender	42.1%	9,832	57.9%	13,517	23,349
Perquimans	42.9%	2,761	57.1%	3,674	6,435
Person	45.7%	8,410	54.3%	10,007	18,417
Pitt	54.3%	39,763	45.7%	33,429	73,192
Polk	42.3%	4,394	57.7%	5,986	10,380
Randolph	28.6%	16,280	71.4%	40,644	56,924
Richmond	50.7%	9,586	49.3%	9,316	18,902
Robeson	56.9%	22,315	43.1%	16,883	39,198
Rockingham	42.7%	16,730	57.3%	22,435	39,165
Rowan	38.4%	23,272	61.6%	37,284	60,556
Rutherford	34.0%	9,595	66.0%	18,631	28,226
Sampson	45.7%	11,753	54.3%	13,952	25,705
Scotland	57.6%	8,105	42.4%	5,972	14,077
Stanly	31.5%	8,815	68.5%	19,193	28,008
Stokes	32.2%	6,816	67.8%	14,335	21,151
Surry	35.9%	10,399	64.1%	18,574	28,973
Swain	49.2%	2,803	50.8%	2,896	5,699
Transylvania	43.6%	7,203	56.4%	9,299	16,502
Tyrrell	49.3%	932	50.7%	960	1,892
Union	36.5%	31,038	63.5%	53,882	84,920
Vance	63.3%	13,095	36.7%	7,584	20,679
Wake	57.5%	247,914	42.5%	183,291	431,205
Warren	69.0%	6,663	31.0%	2,992	9,655
Washington	58.3%	3,734	41.7%	2,667	6,401
Watauga	52.2%	14,513	47.8%	13,303	27,816
Wayne	45.6%	22,507	54.4%	26,800	49,307
Wilkes	30.6%	8,889	69.4%	20,152	29,041
Wilson	51.9%	19,754	48.1%	18,338	38,092
Yadkin	26.7%	4,501	73.3%	12,355	16,856
Yancey	47.1%	4,470	52.9%	5,021	9,491

Source: http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/president/north-carolina.html

By congressional district

Despite Barack Obama winning North Carolina, John McCain carried seven of the state’s 13 congressional districts, including two districts represented by Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

District	McCain	Obama	Representative
1st	37.11%	62.44%	G.K. Butterfield
2nd	47.29%	51.91%	Bob Etheridge
3rd	61.37%	37.83%	Walter B. Jones
4th	36.32%	62.70%	David Price
5th	60.83%	37.91%	Virginia Foxx
6th	62.76%	36.20%	Howard Coble
7th	52.35%	46.79%	Mike McIntyre
8th	46.68%	52.56%	Robin Hayes (110th Congress)
Larry Kissell (111th Congress)
9th	54.46%	44.75%	Sue Wilkins Myrick
10th	63.11%	35.74%	Patrick T. McHenry
11th	52.12%	46.50%	Heath Shuler
12th	28.93%	70.42%	Mel Watt
13th	40.38%	58.70%	Brad Miller

Electors

Technically the voters of North Carolina cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. North Carolina is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.^[21] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 15 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:^[22]

1. Janice Cole
2. Louise Sewell
3. Virginia Tillett
4. Linda Gunter
5. Timothy Futrelle
6. Wayne Abraham
7. Armin Ancis
8. Wendy Wood
9. Michael Cognac
10. Dan DeHart
11. Harley Caldwell
12. Samuel Spencer
13. Patricia Hawkins
14. Sid Crawford
15. Kara Hollingsworth

References

• General election results from OurCampaigns.com

1. D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
2. Presidential | The Cook Political Report Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine.
3. Adnaan (2008-09-20). "Track the Electoral College vote predictions". The Takeaway. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved 2009-11-14.
4. Election Projection: 2008 Elections - Polls, Projections, Results
5. Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
6. Based on Takeaway
7. POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com
8. RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
9. CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived October 29, 2008, at the Wayback Machine.
10. "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
11. "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
12. "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
13. roadto270
14. Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™
15. Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
16. Presidential Campaign Finance
17. "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
18. "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
19. "Election Results 2008". New York Times. Archived from the original on November 3, 2004. Retrieved 2009-05-12.
20. "How Black Democrats won North Carolina and the Election: Massive Turnout, Week of November 13–19, 2008". The Wilmington Journal. 2008-11-24.
21. "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
22. North Carolina Certificate of Ascertainment, page 1 of 3.. National Archives and Record Administration.

See also

United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2008