United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2016

United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2016
New Hampshire
November 8, 2016

 
Nominee Maggie Hassan Kelly Ayotte
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 354,612 353,634
Percentage 47.97% 47.87%


U.S. Senator before election

Kelly Ayotte
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Maggie Hassan
Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of New Hampshire, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary election to select the candidates who appeared on the general election ballot took place on September 13, 2016.[1]

Incumbent Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte ran for re-election to a second term in office and won the primary by a wide margin.[2] Current Governor of New Hampshire Maggie Hassan chose not to seek reelection to a third term as governor and instead sought the nomination of the Democratic Party for the Senate and was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Hassan won the general election by 978 votes, representing a winning margin of approximately 0.1%. This is the first election in which this Senate seat has been won by a Democrat as well as the closest race in a New Hampshire Senate election since the disputed 1974-75 election.

Republican primary

Ayotte was predicted to face opposition in the primary from a Tea Party candidate. In October 2013, former New Hampshire Republican State Committee Chairman Jack Kimball said: "There is no question in my mind that she will garner a primary challenger".[3]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Results

Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kelly Ayotte 86,558 78.55
Republican Jim Rubens 19,139 17.37
Republican Tom Alciere 1,586 1.44
Republican Gerald Beloin 1,252 1.14
Republican Stanley Emanuel 1,187 1.08
Democratic Maggie Hassan (write-in) 301 0.27
Scatter 167 0.15
Total votes 110,190 100.00

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Libertarian convention

On Saturday, January 16, 2016, the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire selected Brian Chabot to be their nominee for the U.S. Senate.[22][23]

General election

Candidates

Endorsements

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[90] Tossup November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[91] Lean D November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[92] Tossup November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[93] Tossup November 5, 2016
Real Clear Politics[94] Tossup November 5, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kelly
Ayotte (R)
Maggie
Hassan (D)
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 696 ± 4.6% 42% 51% 6% 1%
WMUR/UNH November 3–6, 2016 707 ± 3.7% 45% 49% 1% 4%
SurveyMonkey Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 672 ± 4.6% 41% 50% 7% 2%
Emerson College November 4–5, 2016 1,000 ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5% 1%
WMUR/UNH November 2–5, 2016 645 ± 3.7% 45% 47% 2% 6%
WMUR/UNH November 1–4, 2016 588 ± 3.7% 44% 48% 2% 6%
WMUR/UNH Oct 31–Nov 3, 2016 515 ± 3.7% 42% 48% 3% 7%
SurveyMonkey Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 672 ± 4.6% 38% 50% 9% 3%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing November 1–2, 2016 1,001 ± 2.0% 46% 44% 10%
Suffolk University Oct 31–Nov 2, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 44% 42% 5% 8%
American Research Group Oct 31–Nov 2, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 49% 46% 2% 3%
WMUR/UNH Oct 30–Nov 2, 2016 466 ± 3.7% 41% 48% 3% 8%
UMass Lowell/7News Oct 28–Nov 2, 2016 695 LV ± 4.3% 46% 47% 5% 3%
901 RV ± 3.8% 43% 46% 5% 6%
SurveyMonkey Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 658 ± 4.6% 37% 50% 10% 3%
Public Policy Polling Oct 31–Nov 1, 2016 781 ± 3.5% 45% 48% 7%
WMUR/UNH Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016 468 ± 3.7% 43% 47% 2% 8%
WBUR/MassINC Oct 29–Nov 1, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 51% 45% 1% 3%
48% 43% 6%
SurveyMonkey Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 635 ± 4.6% 38% 50% 9% 3%
WMUR/UNH October 28–31, 2016 513 ± 3.7% 44% 46% 2% 8%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 659 ± 4.6% 38% 50% 8% 4%
WMUR/UNH October 27–30, 2016 463 ± 3.7% 45% 45% 2% 8%
WMUR/UNH October 26–30, 2016 641 ± 3.9% 44% 46% 3% 8%
WMUR/UNH October 26–29, 2016 516 ± 3.7% 44% 45% 3% 8%
InsideSources/NH Journal October 26–28, 2016 408 ± 4.2% 49% 47% 4%
Emerson College October 23–25, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 50% 44% 6% 1%
Monmouth University October 22–25, 2016 401 ± 4.9% 46% 46% 6% 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 20–24, 2016 768 LV ± 3.5% 48% 47% 2% 2%
1,020 RV ± 3.1% 48% 47% 2% 3%
UMass Amherst/WBZ October 17–21, 2016 772 ± 4.5% 48% 44% 4% 4%
46% 43% 4% 8%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2016 900 ± 3.2% 45% 45% 10% 1%
WMUR/UNH October 11–17, 2016 770 ± 3.5% 39% 48% 4% 9%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 569 ± 0.5% 42% 47% 10% 1%
WBUR/MassINC October 10–12, 2016 501 ± 4.4% 47% 47% 2% 5%
46% 45% 2% 6%
7News/UMass Lowell October 7–11, 2016 517 ± 4.9% 45% 44% 4% 5%
Public Policy Polling October 7–9, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 43% 44% 13%
Suffolk University October 3–5, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 47% 41% 4% 6%
WBUR/MassINC September 27–29, 2016 502 ± 4.4% 45% 48% 3% 4%
46% 48% 3% 3%
GBA Strategies September 25–27, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 44% 47% 7% 2%
47% 49% 4%
American Research Group September 20–25, 2016 522 ± 4.2% 47% 47% 6%
Monmouth University September 17–20, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 47% 45% 2% 5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist September 6–8, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 52% 44% 4%
Emerson College September 3–5, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 48% 46% 6%
Public Policy Polling August 30–31, 2016 585 ± 4.1% 44% 47% 9%
Public Policy Polling August 26–28, 2016 977 ± 3.0% 45% 47% 8%
WMUR/UNH August 20–28, 2016 433 ± 4.7% 42% 44% 3% 12%
CBS News/YouGov August 10–12, 2016 990 ± 4.3% 41% 42% 17%
Vox Populi Polling (R) August 7–8, 2016 820 ± 3.4% 43% 46% 11%
Public Policy Polling August 5–7, 2016 802 ± 3.5% 42% 47% 11%
WBUR/MassINC July 29–August 1, 2016 609 ± 4.0% 40% 50% 2% 7%
37% 48% 2% 11%
GBA Strategies July 25–27, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 47% 47% 2% 4%
InsideSources/NH Journal July 19–21, 2016 1,166 ± 5.1% 49% 41% 10%
WMUR/UNH July 9–18, 2016 469 ± 4.5% 42% 45% 3% 11%
American Research Group June 24–28, 2016 533 ± 4.2% 51% 42% 7%
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016 578 ± 4.1% 42% 44% 15%
Global Strategy Group June 15–16, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 45% 49% 6%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 46% 47% 7%
Public Policy Polling June 8–9, 2016 649 ± 3.9% 44% 47% 8%
Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University May 25–28, 2016 405 ± 4.9% 48% 47% 5%
Global Strategy Group May 25–26, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 43% 45% 12%
WBUR/MassINC May 12–15, 2016 501 ± 4.4% 46% 48% 2% 4%
Dartmouth College April 11–16, 2016 362 ± 5.2% 37% 35% 28%
WMUR/UNH April 7–17, 2016 553 ± 4.2% 43% 42% 15%
WMUR/UNH February 20–28, 2016 628 ± 3.7% 45% 41% 4% 10%
Marist Poll January 28, 2016 2,258 ± 2.1% 45% 40% 15%
Gravis Marketing January 15–18, 2016 1,197 ± 2.8% 49% 42% 9%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2016 1,036 ± 3.0% 44% 42% 14%
Public Policy Polling November 30–December 2, 2015 990 ± 3.1% 42% 42% 16%
Public Policy Polling October 16–18, 2015 880 ± 3.3% 43% 44% 13%
Gravis Marketing October 5–6, 2015 1,035 ± 3.1% 52% 42% 6%
WMUR/UNH Sept 21–Oct 2, 2015 519 ± 4.3% 45% 43% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling August 21–24, 2015 841 ± 3.4% 44% 43% 13%
NBC News/Marist Poll July, 2015 910 ± 3.2% 50% 42% 8%
WMUR/UNH July 7–20, 2015 472 ± 4.5% 47% 41% 1% 12%
The Tarrance Group July 5–6, 2015 600 ± 4.0% 51% 44% 5%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates June 25–28, 2015 500 ± 3.0% 52% 41% 7%
WMUR/UNH May 6–22, 2015 524 ± 4.3% 45% 43% 2% 9%
Gravis Marketing April 21–22, 2015 1,117 ± 3.0% 51% 43% 6%
Public Policy Polling April 9–13, 2015 747 ± 3.6% 45% 46% 9%
Gravis Marketing March 18–19, 2015 1,110 ± 5.0% 47% 45% 8%
Public Opinion Strategies February 17–18, 2015 424 ± 4.7% 46% 45% 9%
NBC News/Marist February 3–10, 2015 887 ± 3.3% 44% 48% 7%
New England College December 1, 2014 541 ± 4.2% 48% 43% 4% 5%
Public Policy Polling January 9–12, 2014 1,354 ± 2.7% 46% 40% 14%
Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 2013 1,038 ± 3.0% 45% 44% 11%
Public Policy Polling April 19–21, 2013 933 ± 3.2% 44% 46% 10%

Results

2016 New Hampshire U.S. Senator general election
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Maggie Hassan 354,612 48.0% +11.3%
Republican Kelly Ayotte (Incumbent) 353,634 47.9% -12.3%
Independent Aaron Day 17,707 2.4% -0.1%
Libertarian Brain Chabot 12,532 1.7% -1.6%
Plurality 978 0.1%
Turnout 738,485
Democratic gain from Republican Swing

See also

References

  1. "2016 Election Information". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  2. 1 2 John DiStaso (November 7, 2014). "Ayotte, hoping Senate finally 'gets things done,' says she'll seek reelection". NH Journal. Retrieved December 4, 2014.
  3. 1 2 3 Abby Livingston (October 30, 2013). "For N.H. Republicans, Pain Is Probably Temporary". Roll Call. Retrieved October 30, 2013.
  4. "Jim Rubens to challenge incumbent Sen. Ayotte in GOP primary". New Hampshire Union Leader. March 5, 2016. Retrieved March 7, 2016.
  5. Pindell, James (March 13, 2015). "In N.H., a critical US Senate race is already taking shape". The Boston Globe. Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  6. 1 2 3 DiStaso, John (November 2, 2015). "Updated: O'Brien calls secret meeting to discuss primary challenge to Ayotte". WMUR. Retrieved November 2, 2015.
  7. DiStaso, John (November 2, 2015). "Lamontagne: Ayotte 'most conservative US Senate candidate who can win'". WMUR. Retrieved November 2, 2015.
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  54. "NV, NH, NC & PA-Sen: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D. CA) helps these women take back the U.S. Senate". Daily Kos. October 29, 2016. Retrieved November 1, 2016.
  55. "NH-Sen: Sen. Dick Durbin (D. IL) helps Maggie Hassan (D) get ready to defeat Kelly Ayotte (R)". Daily Kos. March 30, 2016. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
  56. Kirsten Gillibrand (December 31, 2015). "Proud to support @TammyforIL @DonnaFEdwards @KamalaHarris @Maggie_Hassan @Ann_Kirkpatrick @CatherineForNV & @KatieMcGintyPA for Senate.". Twitter. Retrieved January 13, 2016.
  57. "NH-Sen: Sen. Martin Heinrich (D. NM) helps Maggie Hassan (D) get ready to defeat Kelly Ayotte (R)". Daily Kos. March 9, 2016. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
  58. "NH-Sen: Sen. Mazie Hirono (D. HI) helps Maggie Hassan (D) get ready to defeat Kelly Ayotte (R)". Daily Kos. October 14, 2015. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
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  63. "New Hampshire's senior Senator knows that we need Maggie in the U.S. Senate fighting for our families". Facebook. July 1, 2016. Retrieved August 2, 2016.
  64. 1 2 "DSCC endorses Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire's Senate race". Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. October 9, 2015. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
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  66. "NH-Sen: Gabby Giffords group keeps up the momentum for Maggie Hassan (D) to defeat Kelly Ayotte (R)". Daily Kos. August 6, 2016. Retrieved September 4, 2016.
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  68. "NH-Sen: Will & Grace's Debra Messing goes all in for Maggie Hassan (D)". Daily Kos. September 1, 2016. Retrieved September 4, 2016.
  69. Steinhauser, Paul (October 13, 2016). "First Lady returns to NH to campaign for Democratic ticket". NH1 News. Retrieved October 13, 2016.
  70. "NH-Sen: Award winning novelist Jodi Picoult endorses Maggie Hassan (D) for U.S. Senate". Daily Kos. May 16, 2016. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
  71. DiStaso, John (July 11, 2016). "WMUR.com first: EMILY's List, AFSCME PACs combine on $2.5 million pro-Hassan ad buy". WMUR-TV. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
  72. "Largest Federal Employee Union Endorses Maggie Hassan for U.S. Senate". PR Newswire. August 10, 2016. Retrieved August 14, 2016.
  73. "RELEASE: AFT-NH endorses Governor Maggie Hassan for U.S. Senate". maggiehassan.com. August 30, 2016. Retrieved September 26, 2016.
  74. Hassan, Maggie (October 18, 2016). "Another exciting endorsement! The Alliance for Reitred Americans is with Maggie because she'll always protect NH seniors #nhsen #nhpolitics". Twitter. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
  75. "ARS PAC endorses Maggie Hassan for U.S. Senate, launches new ad to hold Senator Kelly Ayotte accountable for votes to protect gun background check loopholes". Americans for Responsible Solutions. May 25, 2016. Retrieved September 4, 2016.
  76. "American Nurses Association (ANA-PAC) Endorses Gov. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire Senate race". Nursing World. August 24, 2016. Retrieved October 18, 2016.
  77. "Maggie Hassan for U.S. Senate - New Hampshire". Daily Kos. Retrieved September 4, 2016.
  78. "EMILY's List endorses Maggie Hassan for Senate in New Hampshire". EMILY's List. October 8, 2015. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
  79. Colwell, Kate (September 22, 2016). "FoE Action endorses Gov. Maggie Hassan for U.S. Senate". Friends of the Earth Action. Retrieved September 25, 2016.
  80. Lorenz, Brandon (August 3, 2016). "HRC endorses Gov. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire for U.S. Senate". Human Rights Campaign. Retrieved August 5, 2016.
  81. "New Hampshire". April 5, 2016. Retrieved September 3, 2016.
  82. "RELEASE: Governor Maggie Hassan endorsed by National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare". maggiehassan.com. September 22, 2016. Retrieved October 7, 2016.
  83. "ICYMI: NH1 News: Planned Parenthood Endorses Hassan". maggiehassan.com. May 12, 2016. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
  84. "Portsmouth Naval Shipyard's Metal Trades Council endorses Maggie Hassan for U.S. Senate". NH Labor News. November 4, 2016. Retrieved November 5, 2016.
  85. "Professional Firefighters of NH endorse Hassan for Senate". Seacoastonline.com. July 13, 2016. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
  86. Berman, Jonathon (August 3, 2016). "Sierra Club endorses Governor Maggie Hassan for U.S. Senate". Sierra Club. Retrieved August 5, 2016.
  87. "In N.H., Maggie Hassan for US Senate". The Boston Globe. October 24, 2016. Retrieved October 24, 2016.
  88. "ICYMI: Concord Monitor Endorses Maggie Hassan: "She is clearly the best choice". maggiehassan.com. October 23, 2016. Retrieved October 23, 2016.
  89. "Maggie Hassan is the right choice for New Hampshire". The New York Times. October 28, 2016. Retrieved October 29, 2016.
  90. "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 30, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 5, 2016.
  91. "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 5, 2016.
  92. "2016 Senate Ratings (September 30, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 5, 2016.
  93. "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved November 5, 2016.
  94. "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved November 5, 2016.

External links

Official campaign websites
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